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 US stock discussion v2

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honglun
post Dec 5 2009, 12:57 PM

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Holding ERX at 40$
honglun
post Jan 30 2010, 02:22 AM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jan 30 2010, 02:14 AM)
blush.gif look, its back up again - have a fun time at the beach & wear a rubber duckie when swimming, must play safe  nod.gif
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I'm still suspecting it's a dead cat bounce. Sold half my holdings of BRK.B to add liquidity to my portfolio.
honglun
post Jan 30 2010, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jan 30 2010, 05:35 AM)
[u]

P.S. 'C'itibank fans - you gotta love this because so far, it hasn't disappoint.
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Dan, mind explaining why do you say C hasn't disappoint? It's still far below 5$ high and the 4$ hurdle.


honglun
post Feb 19 2010, 12:21 AM

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I'm thinking of getting FSLR for a year holding. Maybe put roughly 10% of my portfolio in this stock. What do you guys think? (Hoping Danmooncake would give some comment) I know the stock is inversely related to the oil price and oil price is still at its low point. I'm expecting it to be around 180$ range by end of year.
honglun
post Mar 11 2010, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(mH3nG @ Mar 11 2010, 10:51 PM)
Thinking of whether to hold on to C or let it go. Sellers are 2x the buyers now.  hmm.gif
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How do you check that sellers are 2x the buyers?
honglun
post Mar 15 2010, 10:12 PM

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There's one thing I notice that stocks tend to rise when the 20ema cross 50ema. I wonder how do you guys stock screen for such stock? And how do you exit?
honglun
post Mar 15 2010, 10:56 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 15 2010, 10:44 PM)
It depends. Are you looking at 20ema moving ABOVE 50ema or moving BELOW 50ema?
Is the current price above the 20ema, 50ema or in between?

I usually look RSI. If it is overbought.. time to sell.  nod.gif
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Sorry, if I wasn't clear before. What I meant was that the 20ema crosses and moves ABOVE 50ema, you will sell at RSI overbought territory? At what range of RSI you'll be looking at? 70 or 90 to indicate oversold?

2nd scenario, what if the current price is in between 20ema and 50ema? What would you do? Hold and wait?

3rd scenario, what if the 20ema crosses and move below 50ema? Would you sell immediately? Or short it?

Thanks for answering. It'd be nice to get some input from sifus around here, especially Dan! notworthy.gif
honglun
post Mar 16 2010, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 15 2010, 11:44 PM)
Aiya, I'm not a sifu..  there are plenty of sifus here who are much better than me. sweat.gif
After all these years, there is not a single day that I'm not learning from this crazy market and also humbled by it when it proves you wrong when it goes against you. 

Yes, above RSI: 70 to 90 would indicate overbought condition. For example: look at C last week.

If the current price is between 20ema and 50ema, what's its trajectory? Upwards or downwards or sideways?
Is it at the top of bollinger band? middle? or at the bottom? If it is at top, time to take some off. If it is bottom, perhaps scale a position, if it is middle, perhaps wait and see.. what's the major indices doing? Sorry, there is no short answer, they are all "it depends" situation.  wink.gif

IMO, charts are usually 63% right, or 33% wrong.  I am only hoping they're 63% right at the time when I see them so I can use it to make money.  biggrin.gif

Do you have an example of a stock that you are interested in to buy or sell?
Feel free post its chart and let us all study it here and post our thoughts on it.  nod.gif
Dan,
Look at these two charts S n NVE.
Attached Image Attached Image

For S, the 20ema is moving close to 50ema. Should I start a position at round after 3.59$?

As for NVE, 20ema is very close to 50ema. Should I too start a position after 11.60?

NVE seems to have an upward trajectory. As for S it seems it's heading down 50ema before probably moving up again?
honglun
post Mar 17 2010, 11:50 PM

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Entered FUQI at 12.15. Aiming for some bounce trade. Might lose some money cause Dow is at all time high!
honglun
post Mar 18 2010, 12:12 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Mar 17 2010, 11:54 PM)
I put aside all non-US finance counters : my favorites are RBS and LYG but not for now.
All time high?? Are you sure?
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Sorry, I meant all time high for year 2010.
honglun
post Mar 18 2010, 07:40 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 18 2010, 07:36 AM)
Go ahead and try it. But, I can't find any shares to short.

I can see intermediate support at 11.75 but it could break and drop below it tomorrow.

Next support would be around 8.5-9.5, and another level is: 5-6, back to pre-2009 price.

It is oversold now and if you play it right, it could snap back for bounce play (perhaps up to 14.80) - just like STEC.

If this drops to 10 and hold, I'll play the long game. I re-read their earnings announcement and
re-instatement of their earnings may not be that bad.

There are lot of companies that suddenly has accounting errors never recover to their pre-accounting
errors price because of tarnished to investors confidence but the snapback could be wonderful buying opportunities because buyers fear have created massive gap that needs to be filled.

Good luck!
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I'm in for the bounce play! If it snaps below 11.75, I'm out of the game. Hopefully, my risk-taking payoff. After reading many articles n their earnings, I believe it's another 'Toyota like scandal', a one -off thing. Otherwise, the market would humble me...A Lot!
honglun
post Mar 18 2010, 12:51 PM

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I've found something interesting, automatic TA, http://www.stockconsultant.com
Do try it and tell me what you guys think bout it? Are the TA analysis 'correct' enough to believe in?
honglun
post Mar 18 2010, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Mar 18 2010, 09:29 PM)
why not you try putting in STEC and FUQI and decide it yourself.

FUQI
Overall Summary:  65%, Bullish 35%, Bearish
Trade Quality:  Upside 95%, Excellent
                        Downside 30%, Poor           
Break Alerts:  None
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I'm not a TA person till lately. Hence, I can't judge how good the quality of that automatic TA site is? What do you guys think bout it?

honglun
post Mar 19 2010, 06:43 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 19 2010, 06:31 AM)
Closing update:
Dow 10779.17 +45.50 +0.42%
Nasdaq 2391.23 +2.19 +0.09%
S&P 500 1165.82 -0.39 -0.03%

Market went higher and higher..  biggrin.gif
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Are we at an overbought situation? Cause from the RSI....it does look like it.

honglun
post Mar 19 2010, 07:33 AM

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QUOTE(cloud9_lee @ Mar 19 2010, 07:31 AM)
I have sold all my LVS.

Any stock worth to short?
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If you dare, FUQI.
honglun
post Mar 19 2010, 07:39 AM

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QUOTE(cloud9_lee @ Mar 19 2010, 07:35 AM)
Think to short LVS. but I am scare.
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I wouldn't as the oversold territory has been crossed.
honglun
post Mar 19 2010, 07:50 AM

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QUOTE(cloud9_lee @ Mar 19 2010, 07:47 AM)
which Technical Analysis tool to check on overbought / oversold position?
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I use RSI with Bolinger Band as complementary.
honglun
post Mar 19 2010, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Mar 19 2010, 11:30 PM)
what d Fcuk? reversal earlier than anticipated. From making $ on FUQI now negative.
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Not only you. Me too. I was taking a nap and forgot to stop-loss it. I think it's gonna head to sub-10$ price soon.
honglun
post Mar 20 2010, 12:25 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 20 2010, 12:04 AM)
My order for FUQI got filled 11.90 yesterday and got stop out tonight at 11.60.
Back to even after some gain yesterday. sweat.gif Market wants to pull back now. I'm staying out till this settled.

But, I went short on China - bought some FXP: 8.16 at open.
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You think China's tightening will spook investors?
honglun
post Mar 22 2010, 08:38 AM

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QUOTE(Erroralot @ Mar 22 2010, 08:25 AM)
I hope it does smile.gif

In FXP as well smile.gif
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Hopefully it does!

On other note, guys Maybank2u.com's RM10 transfer is not total cost of your fund transfer. The transaction is RM10+21U$ for they use ABN Umbro bank as their intermediary bank. I inquire several other banks and Maybank is still the cheapest. Just a note for you guys out there who still think it's only RM10.


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