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 Fallacy about long fund, hedge fund & fund manager, 90% fund managers do worst than you!

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TSrockcrawler
post May 7 2009, 09:01 PM, updated 17y ago

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1. Long funds are passively killed in the market in bear market but cant outperform in bull market because they are followers and inability to realized the profit.

2. Hedge funds are even worst since more than 90% hedge funds managers do not have clear concept on "hedge", they simply don't know how to make money in bear market. However, hedge fund managers are usually too short sighted. They like to take profit too early, so they may not be able to earn the biggest in the bull market.

3. Fund managers are only employees, earning salary/bonus every month and year. The money in the fund is not belong to them. So THEY CARE ABOUT LOSING AT ALL. They just care winning cos this will give them big bonus. Then they will take as much as risk as possible. This happens especially in hedge fund managers.

Conclusion: I think we should not waste time to discuss funds or fund managers. I think you should just sit back at home, find some ways to improve your investment knowledge such as reading companies annual reports, books about trading. Just to try develop your own sense to look at what is happening in the business world, rather than listen to other advices. I think 85% of people are loser in the investment world, 10% can make some money (small), only 5% can win big. Try to make yourself to be that 5% and if you cant do that. Don't even bother to waste time here. Be a teacher, policeman, doctor or lawyer will be better for you.

Do you agree?
leongal
post May 7 2009, 10:06 PM

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I think one can depend on themselves onli if they have the time plus expertise...

In addition, fund managers r not 'god' - they will make mistakes too...
oumind
post May 7 2009, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 7 2009, 09:01 PM)
1. Long funds are passively killed in the market in bear market but cant outperform in bull market because they are followers and inability to realized the profit.

2.  Hedge funds are even worst since more than 90% hedge funds managers do not have clear concept on "hedge", they simply don't know how to make money in bear market.  However, hedge fund managers are usually too short sighted.  They like to take profit too early, so they may not be able to earn the biggest in the bull market.

3.  Fund managers are only employees, earning salary/bonus every month and year.  The money in the fund is not belong to them.  So THEY CARE ABOUT LOSING AT ALL.  They just care winning cos this will give them big bonus.  Then they will take as much as risk as possible.  This happens especially in hedge fund managers.

Conclusion:  I think we should not waste time to discuss funds or fund managers.  I think you should just sit back at home, find some ways to improve your investment knowledge such as reading companies annual reports, books about trading.  Just to try develop your own sense to look at what is happening in the business world, rather than listen to other advices.  I think 85% of people are loser in the investment world, 10% can make some money (small), only 5% can win big.  Try to make yourself to be that 5% and if you cant do that.  Don't even bother to waste time here.  Be a teacher, policeman, doctor or lawyer will be better for you.

Do you agree?
*
1. Long funds can only long because they are restricted by prospectuses. Long funds are not absolute return funds and life style funds which can long bonds.

2. Agree, the word 'hedge' in hedge funds is misleading.

3. Agree most of your points

I use funds in the following situations
1. Hot countries/sectors which I have no experience/knowledge/access, e.g. Taiwan funds, gold junior funds
2. Investment instrument available in a scheme, e.g. EPF

happy4ever
post May 7 2009, 11:16 PM

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If everyone can do that on their own, who's going to throw the garbage for you?

Fund managers are there to serve a niche. For the people who aren't competent to manage their own investments.
jong52yuara
post May 8 2009, 12:19 AM

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try do some survey at OSK or local stock market brokerage office.. some remisier can make you a lot of money pal..
lwb
post May 8 2009, 08:38 PM

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agree.. most bunghulios here don't read enough on any given subject, what's more about money and investment..
TSrockcrawler
post May 8 2009, 09:01 PM

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QUOTE(lwb @ May 8 2009, 09:38 PM)
agree.. most bunghulios here don't read enough on any given subject, what's more about money and investment..
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whats bunghulios?


Icehart
post May 8 2009, 09:12 PM

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when the fund management charge 2-20% of profits yearly + entrance fees i dont know how in the world people think that they are gonna beat the market.

head i win tail you lose.
TSrockcrawler
post May 8 2009, 09:23 PM

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QUOTE(happy4ever @ May 8 2009, 12:16 AM)
If everyone can do that on their own, who's going to throw the garbage for you?

Fund managers are there to serve a niche. For the people who aren't competent to manage their own investments.
*
if i say, except for your health and families, money should be the most important to one's life, no one should disagree. I think over 90% of people are spending at least 1/3 of their lives to make money for any purpose. So i think if someone don't have the ability to invest (actually gamble to win will be more suitable) for himself, you shouldn't touch investment at all. Don't even bother to find those so called fund mgrs to help you to lose money. Just put it in bank, buy a property and work hard in your job. It's because you should take good care of your own money rather than leave it in others' hands.


Added on May 8, 2009, 9:42 pmLet me tell you how to be that 5%.

1. Under logical arguments, you can hold a different view vs. all others. It's because 90% of the people are wrong in the investment world and this also explains why only few people can win the whole in the market.

2. When you have a different view, can you not be affected by the others? What will you do when all the others, including your mum, dad, wife, children tell you are wrong? Can you neglect them at all?

3. Can you admit that you're wrong when you made mistakes? It translates into "stop-loss". i.e. can you stop loss when you make mistakes? After you stop loss, can you learn from it but forget it after?

4. In other words, can you be a robot, a machine? No emotions at all? I can tell you 90% people lose not because of losing to others, but losing to himself. You lose to yourself, your emotion, your inconsistent behaviour.

Ok, even if you can have the above qualities, i can guarantee you won't lose in the market but doesn't mean you could win big.

I will tell you the qualities to win big tomorrow.


Added on May 8, 2009, 9:44 pm
QUOTE(Icehart @ May 8 2009, 10:12 PM)
when the fund management charge 2-20% of profits yearly + entrance fees i dont know how in the world people think that they are gonna beat the market.

head i win tail you lose.
*
do you mean after they charge that fee, they cant beat the market?


Added on May 8, 2009, 9:46 pm
QUOTE(jong52yuara @ May 8 2009, 01:19 AM)
try do some survey at OSK or local stock market brokerage office.. some remisier can make you a lot of money pal..
*
Who can do that? tell me.

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 8 2009, 09:46 PM
kokofai
post May 8 2009, 10:17 PM

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I would say that, it varies from one another when comes to self-investment. your up-bring would lead u to how u perceive things around u. In other words, it depends on how good is your "eye-sight" in choosing an investment and how smart are u in absorbing information that are not going public so fast.

When comes to investment world, no one can really claim themselve as "GOD" <--- Warren Buffet is exceptional? (You really think so? But he made darn a lot of money. What can u say?)

I personally would say that the element of luck is also very important when comes to investment. Hedge fund managers, yes no doubt they have the knowledge and skills, but afterall it's still undeniable that if u think u can't manage ur own money, and u really wanna give it a try. Why not?

you wouldn't know how pain it is until u fall down. but it's an experience to make us a better person isn't it? smile.gif
jong52yuara
post May 8 2009, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 8 2009, 09:23 PM)

Who can do that? tell me.
i dunno who is it and dont trade local market, but remisier at your local brokerage does help people trade and return generally is much higher than mutual/any fund. there are many remisier just walk-in there open an account and they usually will ask whether you require remisier service, they'll get commision by help you trade your money.
TSrockcrawler
post May 8 2009, 10:25 PM

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QUOTE(kokofai @ May 8 2009, 11:17 PM)
I would say that, it varies from one another when comes to self-investment. your up-bring would lead u to how u perceive things around u. In other words, it depends on how good is your "eye-sight" in choosing an investment and how smart are u in absorbing information that are not going public so fast.

When comes to investment world, no one can really claim themselve as "GOD" <--- Warren Buffet is exceptional? (You really think so? But he made darn a lot of money. What can u say?)

I personally would say that the element of luck is also very important when comes to investment. Hedge fund managers, yes no doubt they have the knowledge and skills, but afterall it's still undeniable that if u think u can't manage ur own money, and u really wanna give it a try. Why not?

you wouldn't know how pain it is until u fall down. but it's an experience to make us a better person isn't it? smile.gif
*
Thanks!

My point is: If you dont know how to play, Dont Play! Cos it is your money, dont put your life at risk cos Money only comes in 3rd or 4th in one's life, after Family and Health.

I never think WB is a God. His existence was a legadary At His Time. It was by chance someone could also do that by given such a chance at that time, here comes WB. If you study him and his life thoroughly, he has not special wisdom and skill than the majority. To me, I adapt Soros more than WB if you want me to choose a true investor with conquer skills and intellectual to face the wave of time.

Comes to gambling, of cos, Luck is critical.


Added on May 8, 2009, 10:30 pmFirst, you said:

QUOTE(jong52yuara @ May 8 2009 @ 01:19 AM)
try do some survey at OSK or local stock market brokerage office.. some remisier can make you a lot of money pal..
Then, you said:
QUOTE(jong52yuara @ May 8 2009, 11:23 PM)
i dunno who is it and dont trade local market, but remisier at your local brokerage does help people trade and return generally is much higher than mutual/any fund. there are many remisier just walk-in there open an account and they usually will ask whether you require remisier service, they'll get commision by help you trade your money.
*
Are you alright?


This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 8 2009, 10:30 PM
kokofai
post May 8 2009, 11:09 PM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 8 2009, 10:25 PM)
Thanks!

My point is: If you dont know how to play, Dont Play! Cos it is your money, dont put your life at risk cos Money only comes in 3rd or 4th in one's life, after Family and Health.

I never think WB is a God.  His existence was a legadary At His Time.  It was by chance someone could also do that by given such a chance at that time, here comes WB.  If you study him and his life thoroughly, he has not special wisdom and skill than the majority.  To me, I adapt Soros more than WB if you want me to choose a true investor with conquer skills and intellectual to face the wave of time.

Comes to gambling, of cos, Luck is critical.
But the fact is, when WB says something, everyone seems to believe in him so much. In other words, everyone treats him just like a GOD!
Yeah he might not be that good as u said, but the fact is, he made billions of billions. he's rich, he's brilliant, he's so influential.

This is a FACT. What can u do to prove that he's not good? WE CAN'T! coz... it's the fact. he's GOD. We don't have any "right" to comment on him.

yes u can...
U cannot prove him wrong until u become the world's richest man one day. smile.gif
fatw3apon
post May 8 2009, 11:29 PM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 7 2009, 09:01 PM)
1. Long funds are passively killed in the market in bear market but cant outperform in bull market because they are followers and inability to realized the profit.

2.  Hedge funds are even worst since more than 90% hedge funds managers do not have clear concept on "hedge", they simply don't know how to make money in bear market.  However, hedge fund managers are usually too short sighted.  They like to take profit too early, so they may not be able to earn the biggest in the bull market.

3.  Fund managers are only employees, earning salary/bonus every month and year.  The money in the fund is not belong to them.  So THEY CARE ABOUT LOSING AT ALL.  They just care winning cos this will give them big bonus.  Then they will take as much as risk as possible.  This happens especially in hedge fund managers.

Conclusion:  I think we should not waste time to discuss funds or fund managers.  I think you should just sit back at home, find some ways to improve your investment knowledge such as reading companies annual reports, books about trading.  Just to try develop your own sense to look at what is happening in the business world, rather than listen to other advices.  I think 85% of people are loser in the investment world, 10% can make some money (small), only 5% can win big.  Try to make yourself to be that 5% and if you cant do that.  Don't even bother to waste time here.  Be a teacher, policeman, doctor or lawyer will be better for you.

Do you agree?
*
Strongly Agree, I never buy any UT or Investment link, simply because they are not a good investor and super high charges. Its a negative + Negative!! Sure lose situation..
imtrobin
post May 8 2009, 11:53 PM

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Warran also lost a lot of money recently, but of course peanuts to him.
TSrockcrawler
post May 8 2009, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(kokofai @ May 9 2009, 12:09 AM)
But the fact is, when WB says something, everyone seems to believe in him so much. In other words, everyone treats him just like a GOD!
Yeah he might not be that good as u said, but the fact is, he made billions of billions. he's rich, he's brilliant, he's so influential.

This is a FACT. What can u do to prove that he's not good? WE CAN'T! coz... it's the fact. he's GOD. We don't have any "right" to comment on him.

yes u can...
U cannot prove him wrong until u become the world's richest man one day. smile.gif
*
WB is influential doesnt make him a God. Is Dr M our Malaysian God who has been influential to our country history in the past decades, even influenced the people, we particular, our whole life?! Dont simply mention God, the greater power. What the majority think doesnt mean it is correct, it can only be seen as a influence force, but no statement indicate that it is correct thing to do, or I should.

What i tried to share is that: Not all of his theories work or he would have been doing greater than his younger times. The reason he is 'great' now simply bcos it was from His Time as I stated earlier. Put him to us now in our time, he is not an shinny investor anymore as compare to many others.



kokofai
post May 9 2009, 12:12 AM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 8 2009, 11:55 PM)
WB is influential doesnt make him a God.  Is Dr M our Malaysian God who has been influential to our country history in the past decades, even influenced the people, we particular, our whole life?!  Dont simply mention God, the greater power.  What the majority think doesnt mean it is correct, it can only be seen as a influence force, but no statement indicate that it is correct thing to do, or I should.

What i tried to share is that:  Not all of his theories work or he would have been doing greater than his younger times.  The reason he is 'great' now simply bcos it was from His Time as I stated earlier.  Put him to us now in our time, he is not an shinny investor anymore as compare to many others.
*
Understand your point. But as i've said earlier... who are we to comment on him? lolxx... He's the God of investment means he certain has the power to make the financial market up side down. He has the power.
TSrockcrawler
post May 9 2009, 12:29 AM

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You may comment, critize or praise on anything or anyone you like. It is the right of speech
jong52yuara
post May 9 2009, 12:36 AM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 8 2009, 10:25 PM)
First, you said:
Then, you said:
Are you alright?
*
i had relatives work in OSK, they'll know.. so i know. its same at every brokerage branch, they have their own remisier. go ask yourself, mind you each remisier probably has different approach on the market. some had high risk quick return, some moderate return and some low. find which one suitable for you.
kokofai
post May 9 2009, 12:47 AM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 9 2009, 12:29 AM)
You may comment, critize or praise on anything or anyone you like. It is the right of speech
*
ya that's right in US, not in msia lor.. later u kena catch by ISA then u know... LOL~ shhhh xD rclxm9.gif
legiwei
post May 9 2009, 12:51 AM

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From what I can see, your investment principles and views is no different from a fund manager.

I wouldn't put my trust on you either.

Your how to be in 5% group don't seem new to me. In fact, I think it's probably the very same thing from what a "financial advisor" will tell me.

So, I still cant see why I will be able to succeed under your approach, especially when you attribute investment as gambling which requires ALOT of luck.

What are the odds of DIY and beating the rest of crowd especially for a person who has no financial knowledge/background as compared to those involved in it for years.

The fallacy to me is not on the profession but the whole entire monetary systems. It was never designed to be sustainable. Introduction of complex financial derivatives or whatever structured products is only there to serve a purpose, a means for people to trade and speculate, a system that was never needed.

This post has been edited by legiwei: May 9 2009, 12:52 AM
deodorant
post May 9 2009, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 9 2009, 12:29 AM)
You may comment, critize or praise on anything or anyone you like. It is the right of speech

lol bullsh*t, tell that to the ppl who got arrested recently and got charged for sedition.

QUOTE(legiwei @ May 9 2009, 12:51 AM)
What are the odds of DIY and beating the rest of crowd especially for a person who has no financial knowledge/background as compared to those involved in it for years.

Can ... insider information. Or share manipulation. Both happening all the time in M'sian market.
TSrockcrawler
post May 9 2009, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(legiwei @ May 9 2009, 01:51 AM)
From what I can see, your investment principles and views is no different from a fund manager.

I wouldn't put my trust on you either.

Your how to be in 5% group don't seem new to me. In fact, I think it's probably the very same thing from what a "financial advisor" will tell me.

So, I still cant see why I will be able to succeed under your approach, especially when you attribute investment as gambling which requires ALOT of luck.

What are the odds of DIY and beating the rest of crowd especially for a person who has no financial knowledge/background as compared to those involved in it for years.

The fallacy to me is not on the profession but the whole entire monetary systems. It was never designed to be sustainable. Introduction of complex financial derivatives or whatever structured products is only there to serve a purpose, a means for people to trade and speculate, a system that was never needed.
*
Yes, those things are known by people, very old fashioned. But can you do that? For every 10 years we will have a bear market and even you know that from history, there are still tons of people losing big. Tell me why? Cos we are all human, we make the SAME mistakes everyday, every year, every decades. Why so many people rush to buy stocks before the the market collapse? Why the turnover usually broke all the time record before the market collapse. you explain this to me?

My point is even you know what i said are correct but you still cant do that. Only 5% of people can do that and they can win big. That means you need to acting in extraordinary way. The world likes a Pyramid, only the tip is the success.
MakNok
post May 9 2009, 10:45 AM

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Provided Fund Manager don't CON people of telling them "sweet" "sweet" words which is very wrong.

The last year market crash render many many investor investment back to stone age!!
Many of my colleague shaking their head coz the sweet of agent that promised them the return will be much better than EPF dividend..

Many of my colleague are taken in by the Mutual funds "extra unit dividend" which increase the investment value but last year Market crash really shatter thier confidence.

Can you tell me how many so-call "niche funds manager" never got burnt last year???





QUOTE(happy4ever @ May 7 2009, 11:16 PM)
If everyone can do that on their own, who's going to throw the garbage for you?

Fund managers are there to serve a niche. For the people who aren't competent to manage their own investments.
*

Added on May 9, 2009, 10:53 amDon't understand why people worship warren buffet so much..

Can we be like Warren Buffet?

we have our own brain which can analyse what is wrong and right...read more...see current trend....invest wisely...which is basically all we can do now.
It is more important how well your investment portfolio fare during good and bad times.

What i meant is that fund manager don't promise this and that.




QUOTE(kokofai @ May 8 2009, 11:09 PM)
But the fact is, when WB says something, everyone seems to believe in him so much. In other words, everyone treats him just like a GOD!
Yeah he might not be that good as u said, but the fact is, he made billions of billions. he's rich, he's brilliant, he's so influential.

This is a FACT. What can u do to prove that he's not good? WE CAN'T! coz... it's the fact. he's GOD. We don't have any "right" to comment on him.

yes u can...
U cannot prove him wrong until u become the world's richest man one day. smile.gif
*
This post has been edited by MakNok: May 9 2009, 10:53 AM
legiwei
post May 9 2009, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 9 2009, 10:35 AM)
Yes, those things are known by people, very old fashioned.  But can you do that?  For every 10 years we will have a bear market and even you know that from history, there are still tons of people losing big.  Tell me why?  Cos we are all human, we make the SAME mistakes everyday, every year, every decades.  Why so many people rush to buy stocks before the the market collapse?  Why the turnover usually broke all the time record before the market collapse.  you explain this to me?

My point is even you know what i said are correct but you still cant do that.  Only 5% of people can do that and they can win big.  That means you need to acting in extraordinary way.  The world likes a Pyramid, only the tip is the success.
*
I don't get it, you are criticising the fund managers because they are treating your money like it's a game and they don't care if they were to lose at all.

And then, you make a U-turn with your "how to succeed method" + your aggresive approach which is no different from those whom you're trying to critise.

And you know, those people who are losing money are also doing the very exact same thing like you're trying to get us to do but only end up losing it big.

So, my point is, I don't see you being any different from the rest.

This post has been edited by legiwei: May 9 2009, 12:44 PM
TSrockcrawler
post May 9 2009, 11:27 PM

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QUOTE(legiwei @ May 9 2009, 01:43 PM)
I don't get it, you are criticising the fund managers because they are treating your money like it's a game and they don't care if they were to lose at all.

And then, you make a U-turn with your "how to succeed method" + your aggresive approach which is no different from those whom you're trying to critise.

And you know, those people who are losing money are also doing the very exact same thing like you're trying to get us to do but only end up losing it big.

So, my point is, I don't see you being any different from the rest.
*
My successful methodology is not to be another fund manager to cheat other money. I mean you need to be a fund manager to manage your own money, to earn for yourself. This method is unique to anyone. Anyone cant copy your method and win the same like you. You develop your own method and can work only on yourself. Cos if you can beat yourself, then you could beat the market.
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post May 10 2009, 02:26 AM

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QUOTE(MakNok @ May 9 2009, 10:45 AM)
Can you tell me how many so-call "niche funds manager" never got burnt last year???

Got ... there were a handful of bear funds that were short on CDOs & all those other derivatives when the markets started crashing, those made tons of money.

Vast majority of everybody and anybody involved in any sort of securities lost big though.

And @ TS >> Your posts are all flowery talk and no substance. Kind of like a bad motivational speaker who only talks about how u should always aim for success (or etc) but doesn't actually tell you anything more than you already know.
SUSjasonhanjk
post May 10 2009, 03:36 AM

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QUOTE(kokofai @ May 8 2009, 11:09 PM)
But the fact is, when WB says something, everyone seems to believe in him so much. In other words, everyone treats him just like a GOD!
Yeah he might not be that good as u said, but the fact is, he made billions of billions. he's rich, he's brilliant, he's so influential.

This is a FACT. What can u do to prove that he's not good? WE CAN'T! coz... it's the fact. he's GOD. We don't have any "right" to comment on him.

yes u can...
U cannot prove him wrong until u become the world's richest man one day. smile.gif
*
God, never makes mistake.

Warrent Buffet mistake is when he take over Berkshire Hathaway.
kokofai
post May 10 2009, 04:31 AM

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rock, do u know that there are actually funds which outperformed the market when it was down?

And, I actually find that it would be pointless u ask ppl not to be another fund manager nor invest in them.

Afterall, it depends on people. If there weren't so many funds out there, do u think that the economy can be stimulated? People would just keep their money in bank or even dig a hole at the back of their garden and bunge it! Imagine if u do not invest, the economy will just move slow like a snail.

And u can't deny the fact that not everyone also has the finance knowledge. Some do still think that they can earn a profit when they invest in funds.

If u do not agree with me then explain to me why there are still so many people buy lottery? smile.gif

This is life, so give fund managers a break! smile.gif Peace~


Added on May 10, 2009, 4:33 am
QUOTE(MakNok @ May 9 2009, 10:45 AM)


Added on May 9, 2009, 10:53 amDon't understand why people worship warren buffet so much..

Can we be like Warren Buffet?

we have our own brain which can analyse what is wrong and right...read more...see current trend....invest wisely...which is basically all we can do now.
It is more important how well your investment portfolio fare during good and bad times.

What i meant is that fund manager don't promise this and that.
*
Of coz you can be like warren buffet, provided that you can do it at the right time, right place, and with the element of luck. Which has one of a million chance. How many people are there on this earth?

Of coz nothing's is wrong if u try to be like him. Even if u can't but i guess what u learnt would transcend a lot of people. Which makes u a better person, or perhaps, wealthier? smile.gif

This post has been edited by kokofai: May 10 2009, 04:33 AM
SUSjasonhanjk
post May 10 2009, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(kokofai @ May 10 2009, 04:31 AM)
Of coz you can be like warren buffet, provided that you can do it at the right time, right place, and with the element of luck. Which has one of a million chance. How many people are there on this earth?

Of coz nothing's is wrong if u try to be like him. Even if u can't but i guess what u learnt would transcend a lot of people. Which makes u a better person, or perhaps, wealthier? smile.gif
*
Rich, middle-class and poor are choices that one make.
Everyone can be rich but not many choose to do it.
By paying attention to their word, you can spot their choices.

To be like WB, is not to do what he do.
It's to be a WB then do as WB and finally having what WB have.
Be, do and have.

The words we say are our being-ness. The Be part.
Most people just want to do and have. Most of them would not be rich.


To be rich, change our vocabulary.

This post has been edited by jasonhanjk: May 10 2009, 10:19 AM
kokofai
post May 10 2009, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(jasonhanjk @ May 10 2009, 10:12 AM)
Rich, middle-class and poor are choices that one make.
Everyone can be rich but not many choose to do it.
By paying attention to their word, you can spot their choices.

To be like WB, is not to do what he do.
It's to be a WB then do as WB and finally having what WB have.
Be, do and have.

The words we say are our being-ness. The Be part.
Most people just want to do and have. Most of them would not be rich.
To be rich, change our vocabulary.
*
sounds so 高深莫测 hehe. But I agree that not all choose to be one.
SUSjasonhanjk
post May 10 2009, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(kokofai @ May 10 2009, 12:57 PM)
sounds so 高深莫测 hehe. But I agree that not all choose to be one.
*
其实是蛮简单的。

Words like "It takes money to make money" and "The rich are greedy" is not in my vocabulary.

One thing I do agree.
Most people that choose not be an investor, they should stick to a financial plan.
Mutual fund is one of the plan that suits them.
TSrockcrawler
post May 11 2009, 09:04 PM

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folks -

first, being a fund manager myself, the aim of opening this thread is trying to help out by sharing insights for those who arent, as well as trying to make friends with anyone who agrees to me.

I do not try to convince anyone to be my client as the co i work in only take in big clients. I criticize was to trying to help others who are lacking of financial skills to STOP wasting/spending money on those so-called 'fund manager' cos i live with them in my entire life, i know who they are, how they are like.

Im hoping to help anyone with interests of learning instead of stuffing food into his mouth, i prefer to teach him to fish. Thats why Im here. I hope u can read my posts again with a different pov from now on.

Once again, i believe winners are not only for genius. You first need to have your mindset in correct direction plus hardworking (try to know as many as things in the world). You still have chance to be the winner.



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post May 11 2009, 09:45 PM

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The strength of an investor is being neutral.
TSrockcrawler
post May 14 2009, 09:48 PM

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Im going to share something simple today - something can prove the method i mentioned it works and makes money.

Q1. Do you know what is the biggest consensus about the economy now?
Answer: 2nd half 2009 recovery of the global economy.

My comment: All wrong. If such a big bubble of banking bubble burst globally (especially in US and Europe) can recover after about 1.5 year (since 2008), it must be someone is joking or daydreaming. The bubble is bigger than ever in human history, bigger than tech bubble, any of those we know of.

2. Can China escape from this crisis?
No. US and Europe take over 40% GDP in the world. It is China (whole Asia indeed) to depend on US and Europe rather they need us. China will become the net importer from now on. China to import natural resources from US and Europe but at the same time exports are all dead like a dead fish. So called "World Factory" doesn't work any more. CHINA CANNOT SAVE THE WORLD, Please stop telling the joke.

3. But one thing we need to bear in mind that the market structure has changed a lot since 2000, due to the rise of internet. Traditional way of accessing to information from hard copies is an era past behind us, it is all about internet now.
The length of bear market will be shortened comparing with the past, say from 4-5 yrs to 2-3 yrs. It's because people need less time to be educated that this is a bear market as information flowing freely and quickly in internet and other media.

Conclusion: Don't lost faith upon current bear market cos IMHO the next bull market may come around 2010-2011. Hence, Now Please Sell everything on hand: stocks/real estates and buy them back around mid of 2010. Remember, not to worry too much about the downturn cos when all the people are bearish, then you take out your money under your bed and buy anything to ride the next bull.

What do you think?

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 14 2009, 09:48 PM
deodorant
post May 15 2009, 12:11 AM

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I tend to agree. Markets have been rallying lately but I see it as no more than blind optimism.

Which is bad news for me cos bear market = shit income T_T
dreamer101
post May 15 2009, 12:59 AM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 14 2009, 09:48 PM)

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
rockcrawler,

Stock Market is not equal to economy.

1) Global economy will not recover in 2nd half 2009. In fact, it probably will not recover in 2010 too.

2) Which stock market are you talking about?? In US stock market, the stock market is a leading indicator. The stock market tend to recover 8 to 9 months before the actual recovery.

3) Malaysia economy and stock market will not recover. Malaysia economy has not recover from 97/98 and now it is going down and not coming back up.

<<Hence, Now Please Sell everything on hand: stocks/real estates and buy them back around mid of 2010. >>

4) Which market?? Malaysia?? Malaysia will not recover. It will get worse over the next 3 to 5 years.

Dreamer
TSrockcrawler
post May 15 2009, 06:40 AM

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Thank you, Dreamer.

I'm sorry that the recovery may not necessarily happen in Malaysia even all the other markets do that because we have a pretty closed economy. Malaysia's edge is only oil. But oil price may not get back to over $100 level in the coming few years cos oil supply is so huge that there is no such thing of energy crisis at all.

I do agree what you said. My suggestion was meaning to try putting an eye/investment in Hong Kong and or Singapore market during 2010. We can still win big.


Added on May 15, 2009, 6:51 amI will share a real example of my trading this week:

Action: I shorted Hang Seng Index futures twice this week from 17400 and closed yesterday at 16480, gained 1000 points in 3 days.

Rationale:
1. Hong Kong mkt turnover broke HK$100bn this week since 17000, but the index met resistance at around 17400-17500. Remember high turnover is a bad sign in bear market rally, meaning people came out to sell.

2. Dont underestimate the resistance in 250 day moving average.

3. It became a low quality rally since 16000 as many bad fundamental stocks also went up huge.

Follow up:
Now waiting for rebound today and short again around 16700-16800.

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 15 2009, 06:55 AM
dreamer101
post May 15 2009, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 15 2009, 06:40 AM)

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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rockcrawler,

You are a FUND MANAGER. It is YOUR full time job to watch the market and play the market. For REAL people like me, I INVEST. I have a REAL job some where else or I have a life to live. So, why should I spent that much time on watching the market?? In fact, if I CANNOT go to sleep for 5 years and be comfortable about what I am investing, I am doing something wrong.

I LOST 50% of my life saving learning this lesson. I ONLY invest on ONE managed mutual fund. The rest on index funds.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VWELX

VANGUARD WELLINGTON INCOME FUND

It existed since 1930. It is the OLDEST mutual fund. No load and annual fee of 0.35%.

I only invest on ONE stock. And, that is because I used to work as supplier to that industry for a few years. I have sufficient knowledge to invest on that. But, still it is just play money.

So, I really do not understand the point of your thread?? Most people has neither the ability, willingness, or capability to speculate in stock market. They have a life to live. They have no business trying to beat fund manager or whatever.

Dreamer

secretsquirrel
post May 15 2009, 01:03 PM

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Dreamer

Maybe he is trying to share insight so that everyone will stop falling into traps of other FM/investment traps... instead of trying to beat anyone in the forum. Maybe he means for good, maybe everyone can lower their guards and give him more room to tell us more about his ideas, maybe.

SS

This post has been edited by secretsquirrel: May 15 2009, 01:05 PM
dreamer101
post May 15 2009, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(secretsquirrel @ May 15 2009, 01:03 PM)
Dreamer

Maybe he is trying to share insight so that everyone will stop falling into traps of other FM/investment traps... instead of trying to beat anyone in the forum.  Maybe he means for good, maybe everyone can lower their guards and give him more room to tell us more about his ideas, maybe.

SS
*
secretsquirrel,

So, tell me, what USEFUL investment information that he had shared??

My POINT which is VERY SIMPLE. Most normal human beings are not PROFESSIONAL stock traders. So, they NEED an investment strategy that works aka they can sleep for 5 years and it will be okay. Anything less than that, it will require TOO MUCH monitoring and it will not work for normal people.

Dreamer


Drian
post May 15 2009, 03:51 PM

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As I always say unit trusts is like "heads you lose, tails i win" kind of scenario. Even if you're losing or winning the fund managers gets a share of your money from the management fees with NO liabilities.

The money comes from you if you make profit, they also make a profit out of the fees. If you lost 15% they will also make a profit
from the fees.
Either way, the unit trust holders hold all the risk, not the fund managers.




cherroy
post May 15 2009, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ May 15 2009, 03:51 PM)
As I always say unit trusts is like "heads you lose, tails i win" kind of scenario. Even if you're losing or winning the fund managers gets a share of your money from the management fees with NO liabilities.

The money comes from you if you make profit, they also make a profit out of the fees.  If you lost 15% they will also make a profit
from the fees.
Either way, the unit trust holders hold all the risk, not the fund managers.
*
Yup, exactly.
Recent financial crisis exposed this issue as well, as some fund managers do get bonus over the performance, it just means encourage excessive risk taking.

There are 2 scenario

a) If you (fund managers) take money from client, while you view market is going to go down, you opt to stay with cash, not investing. If turnout you are right, you earn nothing. Your clients won't appreciated much even you don't lose money while counterpart or generally market are losing.
But if you are wrong, you will be screwed big time, potential losing your job as you did a lousy job.

b) If you fully invested and taking excessive risk and bet on the upside, if turn out you are right, you get big fat bonus.
If wrong, then lose the client's money only, you lose nothing. While just inform the clients, your fund is performing as par with the generally market (lose 30% or 50%).

So which one you choose?
oumind
post May 15 2009, 05:50 PM

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IMHO, fund is just an instrument and investor should be the master. There is no one-size-fit-all instrument.

If you have spare time and like investment, go ahead, spend time on market.

If you do not have spare time and/or dislike investment, you better to have a maintenanceless investment strategy. Having no investment will not be an option as your spare money will be 'idle'.



wodenus
post May 15 2009, 08:03 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ May 15 2009, 03:34 PM)
secretsquirrel,

So, tell me, what USEFUL investment information that he had shared??

My POINT which is VERY SIMPLE.  Most normal human beings are not PROFESSIONAL stock traders.  So, they NEED an investment strategy that works aka they can sleep for 5 years and it will be okay.  Anything less than that, it will require TOO MUCH monitoring and it will not work for normal people.

Dreamer
*
Unfortunately, no money manager will promise you that.
TSrockcrawler
post May 16 2009, 08:20 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ May 15 2009, 04:34 PM)
secretsquirrel,

So, tell me, what USEFUL investment information that he had shared??

My POINT which is VERY SIMPLE.  Most normal human beings are not PROFESSIONAL stock traders.  So, they NEED an investment strategy that works aka they can sleep for 5 years and it will be okay.  Anything less than that, it will require TOO MUCH monitoring and it will not work for normal people.

Dreamer
*
Hi SS,

I'm so glad that there is one can understand my meaning. Thank you very much. Tell me your thoughts.

cheers,

crawler


Added on May 16, 2009, 8:27 am
QUOTE(dreamer101 @ May 15 2009, 04:34 PM)
secretsquirrel,

So, tell me, what USEFUL investment information that he had shared??

My POINT which is VERY SIMPLE.  Most normal human beings are not PROFESSIONAL stock traders.  So, they NEED an investment strategy that works aka they can sleep for 5 years and it will be okay.  Anything less than that, it will require TOO MUCH monitoring and it will not work for normal people.

Dreamer
*
Dreamer,

You mean you believe in free lunch-Sleep tight for 5 yrs and suddenly your wealth will increase? There is high possibility that you get at least 50% lost if you don't put effort to manage your money, rather than increase.

I'm in peace without anymore fights as i do in my everyday's life, but to share as much as i could = unless you equip yourself, full armor, otherwise you should put money in bank FD, real estate rather than in the FM's hands.

rockcrawler

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 16 2009, 08:34 AM
dreamer101
post May 16 2009, 08:40 AM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 16 2009, 08:20 AM)


Added on May 16, 2009, 8:27 am
Dreamer,

You do believe in free lunch, right?  You do believe you could sleep tight for 5 yrs and suddenly your wealth will increase by 5 times?  I can tell the highly possibility that the result will be you lost 50% at least if you don't put effort to manage your money, rather than increase by 5x. 

I'm writing here to tell you guys that unless you equip yourself, full armor, otherwise you should put money in bank FD, real estate rather than in the FM's hands. 

crawler
*
rockcrawler,

<<I can tell the highly possibility that the result will be you lost 50% at least if you don't put effort to manage your money, rather than increase by 5x.>>

My goal is NEITHER to get 5 X Return or lost 50%. My goal is to get market return by using INDEX FUND. So, I am NOT putting my money into fund manager's hand except for a small portion in VWELX.

So, come back to us in 5 or 10 years that you can BEAT market return consistently after all the trading fees. Isn't it quoted by you that 90% of the fund manager cannot achieve market return?? So, by using index fund to match market return rate, I am WAY ahead of the game. And, this is NOT counting my annual asset allocation re-balancing bonus of selling high and buying low.

As a financially literate person, you should UNDERSTAND that risk adjusted return is the ultimate goal. To increase your wealth by 5 times in 5 years, that means you will be taking a HUGE risk. That is the REALM of speculator / gambler. Not the investor.

To lose 50% means that the person is 100% invested in stock. That is STUPID and not in line with asset allocation model investing.

Dreamer
howszat
post May 16 2009, 09:13 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ May 15 2009, 04:00 PM)
a) If you (fund managers) take money from client, while you view market is going to go down, you opt to stay with cash, not investing. If turnout you are right, you earn nothing. Your clients won't appreciated much even you don't lose money while counterpart or generally market are losing.
But if you are wrong, you will be screwed big time, potential losing your job as you did a lousy job.
*
Exactly. For most funds, there is no attempt at capital preservation, ie convert to cash if the market doesn't look good.

That is why for most funds, the ups and downs follow the index they are benchmarking with. The better funds will beat the index, the lousy funds will dip below. But that doesn't mean much when say, the index drops by 50%, and your fund only drops by 45%. smile.gif


SUSKinitos
post May 16 2009, 10:11 AM

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" 1. Long funds are passively killed in the market in bear market but cant outperform in bull market because they are followers and inability to realized the profit. "


Rock , all forumers here appreciate your further understanding of our statement above taking into accounts the questions below,

Unit trust fund are regulated investment fund not unregulated private trading fund.
Give us some examples of investments you personally managed that consistently outperform the bull market. How and by what measure/method it can outperform the bull market.
Explain your perception "they are followers and inability to realized the profit"



mita
post May 16 2009, 12:31 PM

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Whether you invest in fund or Bursa, to win in the stock market ( GU PIUH, GU GU HAH ) you need to have a mindset of both a trader and an investor. I pulled out of market months before the explosion. I doubt i will invest in the market/fund for the foreseeable future because the fundamental is not very solid.

IE, If we recover financially (DEBT PAID), the oil price will go high and likely hurt the economy BIG TIME.
If we're to keep the oil price low, the only way seems to be economic depression.

End result = Sluggish global economy or depression until we find a good replacement for oil ( Nuclear, Fusion, etc) and the debt/GDP is reduced significantly.


The above is my personal opinion.

Pay more attention to the "less" mainstream media/Blog then you'd be more sensitive to impending crash of anything.....The mainstream media or your unit trust "consultant" will not tell ya the reality until it's already TOO LATE.

Share market(Stock Analyst/CNBC) Vs Religion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxJvgbkDhng

MORE DEBT PLEASE - F**King NEWs CHANNEL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlp4M4H9i-4&feature=fvst

This post has been edited by mita: May 16 2009, 12:54 PM
dreamer101
post May 16 2009, 07:15 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ May 16 2009, 09:13 AM)
Exactly. For most funds, there is no attempt at capital preservation, ie convert to cash if the market doesn't look good.

That is why for most funds, the ups and downs follow the index they are benchmarking with. The better funds will beat the index, the lousy funds will dip below. But that doesn't mean much when say, the index drops by 50%, and your fund only drops by 45%. smile.gif
*
howszat,

Every year, most of the fund do not beat the benchmark index. And, it is NOT the SAME FUND that beat the index. So, over 5 to 10 years, only a handful of funds beat the bench mark index. So, why even play this FOOL's game?? Just buy the benchmark index and you will be way ahead of the game.

Dreamer


Added on May 16, 2009, 7:18 pm
QUOTE(mita @ May 16 2009, 12:31 PM)
Whether you invest in fund or Bursa, to win in the stock market ( GU PIUH, GU GU HAH ) you need to have a mindset of both a trader and an investor. I pulled out of market months before the explosion. I doubt i will invest in the market/fund for the foreseeable future because the fundamental is not very solid.

IE, If we recover financially (DEBT PAID), the oil price will go high and likely hurt the economy BIG TIME.
    If we're to keep the oil price low, the only way seems to be economic depression.

End result = Sluggish global economy or depression until we find a good replacement for oil ( Nuclear, Fusion, etc) and  the debt/GDP is reduced significantly.
The above is my personal opinion.

Pay more attention to the "less" mainstream media/Blog then you'd be more sensitive to impending crash of anything.....The mainstream media or your unit trust "consultant" will not tell ya the reality until it's already TOO LATE.

Share market(Stock Analyst/CNBC) Vs Religion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxJvgbkDhng

MORE DEBT PLEASE - F**King NEWs CHANNEL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlp4M4H9i-4&feature=fvst
*
mita,

There are ONLY less than 5 counters worth investing in KLSE. And, why do you want to limit yourself to Malaysia only?? Malaysia's economy may NEVER recover.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: May 16 2009, 07:18 PM
mita
post May 16 2009, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE
Malaysia's economy may NEVER recover.


This is a global mega debt deflation catastrophe. The US/EU/global credit bubble has gone bust just like in 1929 except that this is many times more severe than before. This is not just a malaysian issue because our economy are more globalized than ever. Of course our government policy could have made matter worse.


Check Nasdaq 8-9 years ago, the peak was at 6000, (DOT COM BUST ) how much it is now ?

The peak of Japan Stock market was at 37000 in 1989, (JAPAN CREDIT BUST) how much it is now ?

In the great depression (mega credit bust ), US stock crashed almost 90%. It took 3-4 years to complete the "crash course", and recovered only after WWII !!!!

Now that we have the largest economy in the world -USA, UK and also some EU nations going bust, Personally, I really don't see the reason to invest in the domestic or foreign share market for LONG TERM. Maybe GU GU hah(trading a little) Oklah ... Beware my friend, don't catch a failing NUKE ... One mega mistake and the only solution is to jump bridge...

user posted image

This post has been edited by mita: May 16 2009, 08:07 PM
dreamer101
post May 17 2009, 10:56 AM

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QUOTE(mita @ May 16 2009, 07:48 PM)
This is a global mega debt deflation catastrophe. The US/EU/global credit bubble has gone bust just like in 1929 except that this is many times more severe than before. This is not just a malaysian issue because our economy are more globalized than ever. Of course our government policy could have made matter worse.
Check Nasdaq 8-9 years ago, the peak was at 6000, (DOT COM BUST ) how much it is now ?

The peak of Japan Stock market was at 37000 in 1989, (JAPAN CREDIT BUST) how much it is now ?

In the great depression (mega credit bust ), US stock crashed almost 90%. It took 3-4 years to complete the "crash course", and recovered only after WWII !!!!

Now that we have the largest economy in the world -USA, UK and also some EU nations going bust, Personally, I really  don't see the reason to invest in the domestic or foreign share market for LONG TERM. Maybe GU GU hah(trading a little) Oklah ... Beware my friend, don't catch a failing NUKE ... One mega mistake and the only solution is to jump bridge...

user posted image
*
mita,

Yes, the WORLD has a problem now. But, Malaysia has EVEN worse fundamental problem that even the world recover, we will not.

<< Check Nasdaq 8-9 years ago, the peak was at 6000, (DOT COM BUST ) how much it is now ?

The peak of Japan Stock market was at 37000 in 1989, (JAPAN CREDIT BUST) how much it is now ?

In the great depression (mega credit bust ), US stock crashed almost 90%. It took 3-4 years to complete the "crash course", and recovered only after WWII !!!!>>

So what?? It is STUPID to invest 100% in stock market in any time period. To have investment strategy that you can sleep on for 5 years, you need to DIVERSIFY across the whole world and multiple asset classes.

Dreamer

thy1986
post May 17 2009, 03:00 PM

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TS, i hope u understand tht not everyone is as good as u in the finance market... hence they need a pro to help them to invest...
ur statement is more likely to ask everyone to fix their own tv; but the truth is not everyone noe how to do it... (how many uncle and auntie out there noe how to read annual report and caculate ratio???)

anyway i believe as a fund manager, ur client will tell u their risk preference... those wif extra money they don mind invest in a risky stock...
on the other hand, those wif little money, i believe they also don hope to earn big bucks but at least a better return then just put the money in the bank to earn interest....

anyway most of the fund managers did not enclosure all the information that you(client) need to know... this is not ethical but still everyone is doing so..

it will be more useful if u can write down some steps on how to identify bad fund manager or how to read annual report etc.... rather than ask ppl don play if they don noe how to play in the finance market... from the 1st post until now u did not mention anything at all but keep on bashing... ur words do giv ppl a wrong idea, if u don noe how to invest in the stock market don invest at all. put in the bank and die with ur money...
there is a high chance of getting HIV if u sleep wif different partners every night, but ppl still do so... wat u can do is educate them and not asking them stop having sex...



SUSKinitos
post May 17 2009, 06:01 PM

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the problems now is all the forumers thinks this guy is a fake.

"working his entire life with fund management"?
It is perfectly logical a person may spent his entire life in fund management but knows NOTHING

gossips is now flying around that this guy job is removing
pile of dung left over by fund management workers.

secretsquirrel
post May 18 2009, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ May 15 2009, 03:34 PM)
secretsquirrel,

So, tell me, what USEFUL investment information that he had shared??

My POINT which is VERY SIMPLE.  Most normal human beings are not PROFESSIONAL stock traders.  So, they NEED an investment strategy that works aka they can sleep for 5 years and it will be okay.  Anything less than that, it will require TOO MUCH monitoring and it will not work for normal people.

Dreamer
*
Dreamer - he MAY not HAVE shared any practical useful investment information yet but if we give more rooms to others may HE may be able to share some insights for us, who knows?! I agree with you that we are not doing good in our investment skills, and thats exactly why he comes in as he claims that he wishes to share with us some insights? Shall we all keep quiet and talk about whatever he brought up only? Im Not talking about you, but some others responses are plain rubbish and deserved to be warned. Talking about the fallace of FM, I personally think there are fallace of FM interpersonal personalities as well - they are lacking of marketing and interpersonal skills.


Added on May 18, 2009, 3:02 pm
QUOTE(cherroy @ May 15 2009, 04:00 PM)
Yup, exactly.
Recent financial crisis exposed this issue as well, as some fund managers do get bonus over the performance, it just means encourage excessive risk taking.

There are 2 scenario

a) If you (fund managers) take money from client, while you view market is going to go down, you opt to stay with cash, not investing. If turnout you are right, you earn nothing. Your clients won't appreciated much even you don't lose money while counterpart or generally market are losing.
But if you are wrong, you will be screwed big time, potential losing your job as you did a lousy job.

b) If you fully invested and taking excessive risk and bet on the upside, if turn out you are right, you get big fat bonus.
If wrong, then lose the client's money only, you lose nothing. While just inform the clients, your fund is performing as par with the generally market (lose 30% or 50%).

So which one you choose?
*
These discussion has no purpose at all. No FM will guarantee you a percentage of return nor they should. It was the marketing tactic or the boss/owner of the fund to have done that. The promises was made by the FM as an additional job in his job designation. A FM is a manager to be fully responsible for investment the FUND (billions of USD that we are talking about) into diff products with his own skills and experiences, it is like predicting the weather - no matter how advance science we have now, but we still gets lots of unpredicatable earthquakes? why?
It is too innocent to take the promises of x % of return within y months. However, on the safe side, two can always draw a line of boundary by not losing z percentage of the investment or it has to be refunded in full.


Added on May 18, 2009, 3:42 pm
QUOTE(dreamer101 @ May 16 2009, 08:40 AM)
My goal is to get market return by using INDEX FUND.  So, I am NOT putting my money into fund manager's hand except for a small portion in VWELX.


Dreamer

Thats exactly why we should listen to the sharing of a FM who claims to be the very special 5% who is winning with ability and skills. And I really dont think you should spite him away just bcos u lost half of your assets before in stocks although i echo to chinese proverb: one day being bitten by snack, a whole life fear of grass.

Talking about gambling and investing, i think the difference is that gambling is going all with courage without blind faith, whereas investing are talking about skills and experiences.


Added on May 19, 2009, 11:04 am
QUOTE(thy1986 @ May 17 2009, 03:00 PM)
TS, i hope u understand tht not everyone is as good as u in the finance market... hence they need a pro to help them to invest...
ur statement is more likely to ask everyone to fix their own tv; but the truth is not everyone noe how to do it... (how many uncle and auntie out there noe how to read annual report and caculate ratio???)
QUOTE(Kinitos @ May 17 2009, 06:01 PM)
the problems now is all the forumers thinks this guy is a fake.


thy1986 - i think you havent read TS properly from his pov. Be he is a fake or not, we decide later, but i think he has been trying to share with us that 90% of how other FM has been failing and how and why. He also understands that most of us DO NOT have the skills and experiences as most FM, thats why he came in. It is alright we still need a pro to help us, so while we choose a pro, make sure WE KNOW WHAT WE CHOOSE, i guess thats what he has been trying to tell us.

I think his statement is not about telling others to fix their own tv, but with the sharing he has, everyone should LEARN of how to fix or even when you hire someone to do so, not just shut off the eyes and wait for the luck falling from sky, but at the same time monitoring with HIS sharing.

TS - Im not defending you but being in LYN for a long time I know generally LYN-ians only choose to read what they WANT to read instead of reading from a larger view.

thy1986 - your sharing below is great for TS. I believe TS is someone lacking of interpersonal skills or planning on how to share his idea. Let's give him more time and room, shall we?

QUOTE

anyway i believe as a fund manager, ur client will tell u their risk preference... those wif extra money they don mind invest in a risky stock...
on the other hand, those wif little money, i believe they also don hope to earn big bucks but at least a better return then just put the money in the bank to earn interest....

anyway most of the fund managers did not enclosure all the information that you(client) need to know... this is not ethical but still everyone is doing so..

it will be more useful if u can write down some steps on how to identify bad fund manager or how to read annual report etc.... rather than ask ppl don play if they don noe how to play in the finance market... from the 1st post until now u did not mention anything at all but keep on bashing... ur words do giv ppl a wrong idea, if u don noe how to invest in the stock market don invest at all. put in the bank and die with ur money...
there is a high chance  of getting HIV if u sleep wif different partners every night, but ppl still do so... wat u can do is educate them and not asking them stop having sex...
*
This post has been edited by secretsquirrel: May 19 2009, 11:04 AM
TSrockcrawler
post May 19 2009, 08:16 PM

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Hi everyone,

keep shorting the market today......short Hang Seng Index Futures at 17400 again, big short here. Tomorrow get some big cap to ex-dividend, including HSBC. I guess this rally is the biggest and the only one in this year, everybody please fasten your seat belt. Have you prepare to see the worst in the coming few months? Have you prepare to buy when you see the worst, rather being scared your shit out?

Remember: Don't be too excited when you see the market going up crazy! Don't be scare when you see people commit suicide during the downturn of bear market! When you see blood on the street, it's time to buy crazy.

Rock


Added on May 19, 2009, 8:29 pm
QUOTE(Kinitos @ May 16 2009, 11:11 AM)
" 1. Long funds are passively killed in the market in bear market but cant outperform in bull market because they are followers and inability to realized the profit. "
Rock , all forumers here appreciate your further understanding of our statement above taking into accounts the questions below,

Unit trust fund are regulated investment fund not unregulated private trading fund.
Give us some examples of investments you personally managed that consistently outperform the bull market. How and by what measure/method it can outperform the bull market.
Explain your perception "they are followers and inability to realized the profit"
*
Yes, since they are being regulated, so are bounded by guidelines and i said in this forum that the market structure has changed to be so efficient so that the ordinary long and hedge fund managers (who are usually at least 40-50 yrs old people and they are so dump) cant adapt to the change. I worked with some old fund managers before that they keep their old way of thinking (mainly very very stubborn long bias view) and just like a deer in the headlight, do nothing in the bear market. These old fashion managers would keep at 40-50% investment actively in equities and wait to see the share prices going to toilet until 60-70% loss then stopped. I'm telling those guys that this world is no longer belong to you. It's our market, traders' market, traders with extensive knowledge to everything in the world.

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 19 2009, 08:29 PM
mita
post May 19 2009, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE
Yes, the WORLD has a problem now. But, Malaysia has EVEN worse fundamental problem that even the world recover, we will not.


If the world recover, we will surely recover though not as spectacular as others. Malaysia is part of the globalized economic/Keynesian financial system. We are not North Korea or Cuba. If USA is the heart, Japan is the Kidney, Malaysia is like the testicle of the body, without testicle the heart can still live ......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Malaysia

Exports $195.7 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.)
Main partners : United States 15.6%, Singapore 14.6%, Japan 9.1%, People's Republic of China 8.8%, Thailand 5%, Hong Kong 4.6% (2007)


Imports $156.2 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.)
Main Partners Japan 13%, People's Republic of China 12.9%, Singapore 11.5%, United States 10.8%, Taiwan 5.7%, Thailand 5.3%, South Korea 4.9%, Germany 4.6%, Indonesia 4.2%


QUOTE
So what?? It is STUPID to invest 100% in stock market in any time period. To have investment strategy that you can sleep on for 5 years, you need to DIVERSIFY across the whole world and multiple asset classes.




Warren Buffetts says that diversification is a protection against ignorance.
If you know that financial assets and housing assets are going to crash to the abyss because of massive debt deflation, it just doesn't make sense to diversify into these area right?

This post has been edited by mita: May 19 2009, 11:01 PM
SUSKinitos
post May 19 2009, 10:56 PM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 19 2009, 08:16 PM)
Hi everyone,

keep shorting the market today......short Hang Seng Index Futures at 17400 again, big short here.  Tomorrow get some big cap to ex-dividend, including HSBC.  I guess this rally is the biggest and the only one in this year, everybody please fasten your seat belt.  Have you prepare to see the worst in the coming few months?  Have you prepare to buy when you see the worst, rather being scared your shit out? 

Remember:  Don't be too excited when you see the market going up crazy! Don't be scare when you see people commit suicide during the downturn of bear market!  When you see blood on the street, it's time to buy crazy.

Rock


Added on May 19, 2009, 8:29 pm

Yes, since they are being regulated, so are bounded by guidelines and i said in this forum that the market structure has changed to be so efficient so that the ordinary long and hedge fund managers (who are usually at least 40-50 yrs old people and they are so dump) cant adapt to the change.  I worked with some old fund managers before that they keep their old way of thinking (mainly very very stubborn long bias view) and just like a deer in the headlight, do nothing in the bear market.  These old fashion managers would keep at 40-50% investment actively in equities and wait to see the share prices going to toilet until 60-70% loss then stopped.  I'm telling those guys that this world is no longer belong to you.  It's our market, traders' market, traders with extensive knowledge to everything in the world.
*
In local context it's understood by default when they said unit trust fund, it's always long trust fund as locally naked short doesn't apply. Almost all trust funds are limited to the following instruments:equities,money markets,bonds. The fact that majority of the funds are equities trusts, there are required by funds mandate/objectives to be stay invested regardless of bull or bear market in shares or warrants at least 80% - 90% of fund investable assets.

Under such senario, is it still applicable for you to said "Long funds are passively killed in the market in bear market"

Of course yes there are in a way, but these are long term investment funds and the shares in portfolio are selected based on their fundamental basis not price/volume momentum like speculators would trade.

what we would like to hear from you is how you would drive these funds performance chart flying UP instead of flying down since you disagreed with most fund managers way of doing things.


mita
post May 19 2009, 11:48 PM

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QUOTE(Kinitos @ May 19 2009, 10:56 PM)
what we would like to hear from you is how you would drive these funds performance chart flying UP instead of flying down since you disagreed with most fund managers way of doing things.
*
More people buying or playing the same slot machine oh no i mean company share ( + brokerage/ unit trust fee) with the belief that the fundamendal is strong then the price goes up in value. We call this bull market.

More people selling their depleted casino chips/credits oh no i mean shares because a few sophisticated traders/investor have dumped the shares to take profits with advanced knowledge the fundamental will be weaken, the price goes down in value. We call this bear market ( wealth transfer from losers to winners )

This post has been edited by mita: May 20 2009, 12:09 AM
TSrockcrawler
post May 20 2009, 08:46 PM

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QUOTE(Kinitos @ May 19 2009, 11:56 PM)
In local context it's understood by default when they said unit trust fund, it's always long trust fund as locally naked short doesn't apply. Almost all trust funds are limited to the following instruments:equities,money markets,bonds. The fact that majority of the funds are  equities trusts, there are required by funds mandate/objectives to be stay invested regardless of bull or bear market in shares or warrants at least 80% - 90% of fund investable assets.

Under such senario, is it still applicable for you to said "Long funds are passively killed in the market in bear market"

Of course yes there are in a way, but these are long term investment funds and the shares in portfolio are selected based on their fundamental basis not price/volume momentum like speculators would trade.

what we would like to hear from you is how you would drive these funds performance chart flying UP instead of flying down since you disagreed with most fund managers way of doing things.
*
What i'm doing here is to show my view on the market and let everyone to justify the view/opinion. I've shared my pov in the my last post starting with sentence "Hi everyone..." I usually do things in a contradict way from last year.

Im trying to share my ideas in a blog, if there anyone interested, kindly pm me.

For anyone who Doesnt have any objections to things that i share, you do not have to response to my posts. I have no means to beat everyone in order to show that i conquer the world. Im only sharing for the good deeds of everyone, instead of gaining anything from you guys.
dreamer101
post May 20 2009, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(mita @ May 19 2009, 10:03 PM)
If the world recover, we will surely recover though not as spectacular as others. Malaysia is part of the globalized economic/Keynesian financial system. We are not North Korea or Cuba. If USA is the heart, Japan is the Kidney, Malaysia is like the testicle of the body, without testicle the heart can still live ......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Malaysia

Exports $195.7 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.)
Main partners : United States 15.6%, Singapore 14.6%, Japan 9.1%, People's Republic of China 8.8%, Thailand 5%, Hong Kong 4.6% (2007)
Imports $156.2 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.)
Main Partners Japan 13%, People's Republic of China 12.9%, Singapore 11.5%, United States 10.8%, Taiwan 5.7%, Thailand 5.3%, South Korea 4.9%, Germany 4.6%, Indonesia 4.2%
Warren Buffetts says that diversification is a protection against ignorance.
If you know that financial assets and housing assets are going to crash to the abyss because of massive debt deflation, it just doesn't make sense to diversify into these area right?
*
mita,

<<If the world recover, we will surely recover though not as spectacular as others. >>

This has been proven WRONG. Malaysia had not recover from the 97/98 recession while others has. So, what makes you think that Malaysia can recover this recession??

<<Warren Buffetts says that diversification is a protection against ignorance. >>

Bingo. Unless you are Warren Buffet, you are IGNORANT.

In personal finance, there are ONLY 2 kinds of people,

1) Those who know that they know nothing.

2) Those who do not know that they know nothing.

<< If you know that financial assets and housing assets are going to crash to the abyss because of massive debt deflation, it just doesn't make sense to diversify into these area right?>>

So, tell me when the crash going to happen and when it is going to stop?? You DO NOT KNOW. And, nobody knows. So, a strategy that is based on TIMING does not work either.

An asset allocation based investment strategy does not based on TIMING. And, by rebalancing, you always SELL HIGH and BUY LOW.

http://www.marketwatch.com/LazyPortfolio

Check out lazy portfolio above.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: May 20 2009, 09:36 PM
TSrockcrawler
post May 22 2009, 12:34 PM

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QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 19 2009, 09:16 PM)
Hi everyone,

keep shorting the market today......short Hang Seng Index Futures at 17400 again, big short here.  Tomorrow get some big cap to ex-dividend, including HSBC.  I guess this rally is the biggest and the only one in this year, everybody please fasten your seat belt.  Have you prepare to see the worst in the coming few months?  Have you prepare to buy when you see the worst, rather being scared your shit out? 

Remember:  Don't be too excited when you see the market going up crazy! Don't be scare when you see people commit suicide during the downturn of bear market!  When you see blood on the street, it's time to buy crazy.

Rock



See! i'm right once again. The index is down consecutively 2 days, now trading at around 17000.

In Oct 2008, everybody rushed out and said Hang Seng Index would go to 8000. What did you do that time?

Now, everybody said HSI will go to 20,000. What will you do this time?

Tell me......

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 22 2009, 10:44 PM
c0cac0la
post May 23 2009, 03:34 AM

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I am reasonably entertained by this thread, and makes me think a lot. Questions:

1) You are implying that Fund Managers are allowed and encouraged to take excessive risk, while I thought it is regulated. May be not in Malaysia, I suppose.

2) If such a fund exist, given the higher risk taken, it tends to perform worse than other funds. If we believe in market with free competition, it will lose its client much faster than others, and soon out of business. Unless it is a monopoly or oligopoly market, such a fund should be and would be short lived. Again, is this very different in Malaysia ?

3) All financial institution is governed and regulated on the amount of risk they took, basic measurement such as the Greek factors, and Value At Risk calculations should be reported to the central bank regulatory. Is that not the case for Malaysia ?

4) Hedge funds does not operate based on 'hedging' per se, but rather they do delta hedging using Black Sholes formula. However, there are funds that don't and still call themselves hedge fund. Is there any hedge funds in Malaysia ? Without the ability to short the market, I would imagine delta hedging is impossible.

5) The key concept of finance is all about opportunity cost. When a person hire a fund managers and pay him for transaction brokerage fees, you mentioned it is a 'head you win, tail I lose' situation, but do not forget the person frees up his time in doing those transactions and able to use those time to earn money. Some would argue that what is important is 'Can you earn more than the brokerage if you were to do it yourself?' rather than declare that paying brokerage mutual funds is not worth it. What is your opinion on this ?

6) The same opportunity cost goes on hiring a fund manager. If one were to spend time pick up finance and investment as a subject (depends on your maths and econs foundation, it can be done in 3 months to few years), and then willing to do analysis on all companies that he is tracking (which is time consuming) and also collect and consolidate market information (super time consuming for a normal person), I see a huge amount of time and effort invested. Time, is money. I would imagine the question is back to 'How much can you earn with those time spent on other areas, such as your job?". What do you suggest ?

7) Imagine a person spent all the above time and effort and now become capable of managing his own investment, his cost is probably still higher than a fund manager, because fund manager would be able to spread his cost over larger amount of transactions (and more clients), compare to the individual. Can the individual really do it more cost effective than a fund manager ?

8) Assuming both can do the same efficiency and effectiveness in investment, which would also translate to the fact that the chances of success is the same. The individual can make the same mistake as the fund managers. The only difference is how risk averse is the individual. If the individual is highly risk seeking, he/she will potentially bet bigger than the fund (which should be regulated on total risk committed). So I suppose your suggestion is for investor who is highly risk averse, who would bet lesser than the fund manager and therefore lost less money should the bet turn bad. What do you think ?

9) Given the above, I would also think you may want to consider this: If the fund manager is more prone to taking higher risk, which has higher return, it is best to engage them during the bull time. When bear market comes, just withdraw your money and put it into bond or other fixed income product. Isn't it better to make use of fund managers for what they are good at, rather than discount them completely ? Would like to hear your opinion on this.


cherroy
post May 23 2009, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(c0cac0la @ May 23 2009, 03:34 AM)
1) You are implying that Fund Managers are allowed and encouraged to take excessive risk, while I thought it is regulated. May be not in Malaysia, I suppose.

3) All financial institution is governed and regulated on the amount of risk they took, basic measurement such as the Greek factors, and Value At Risk calculations should be reported to the central bank regulatory. Is that not the case for Malaysia ?

4) Is there any hedge funds in Malaysia ?

5) The key concept of finance is all about opportunity cost. When a person hire a fund managers and pay him for transaction brokerage fees, you mentioned it is a 'head you win, tail I lose' situation, but do not forget the person frees up his time in doing those transactions and able to use those time to earn money. Some would argue that what is important is 'Can you earn more than the brokerage if you were to do it yourself?' rather than declare that paying brokerage mutual funds is not worth it. What is your opinion on this ?

8) Assuming both can do the same efficiency and effectiveness in investment, which would also translate to the fact that the chances of success is the same. The individual can make the same mistake as the fund managers. The only difference is how risk averse is the individual. If the individual is highly risk seeking, he/she will potentially bet bigger than the fund (which should be regulated on total risk committed). So I suppose your suggestion is for investor who is highly risk averse, who would bet lesser than the fund manager and therefore lost less money should the bet turn bad. What do you think ?

9) Given the above, I would also think you may want to consider this: If the fund manager is more prone to taking higher risk, which has higher return, it is best to engage them during the bull time. When bear market comes, just withdraw your money and put it into bond or other fixed income product. Isn't it better to make use of fund managers for what they are good at, rather than discount them completely ? Would like to hear your opinion on this.
*
1) Fund managers (this could be excluded as explained below) or CFO of financial instituiion are well known for risk taker as it is their job scope. While they get performance bonus based on risk taking if it yield fruit.
Recent financial crisis has exposed this issue quite thoroughly, as fund managers you get nothing if being defensive. But if you are wrong to be defensive, your job could be in jeopardy because you performs poorly compared to the peers.
So this always prompt FI CFO to take more risk, as long as more loan being granted (like subprime) or financial products being sold like CDO, then I contributed more profit to the company, I get more bonuses and better performance. Whether this risky move will be turning sour or not after few years, nobody knows and they don't care much (subprime issue has exposed this issue).

2) no issue on this

Malaysia UT is highly regulated, they cannot do leveraging or whatsoever, just purely invested client's money into stocks. So leveraging and excessive risk taking is out of question, but the major problem is fund is rigid, no matter how high the market goes, they still will invest no less than 70-80% of their fund money available, no matter how they see the market whether it is bubble or unsustainable already.

The execessive risk taking issue is more on investment banks and financial instituition that can do levaraging, not appropriate appied on UT fund managers except the rigid strategy they cannot do anything.

3) In US, there is no guideline and regulation to stop any financial instituition to have whatever leverage ratio can be 1:50 as well. In Malaysia, since a lot of finance product is highly regulated, you don't see much chance for FI to do some funny stuff like CDS, MGS etc. It is the derivatives product that bring out this financial crisis, not old fashioned banking loan, which Malaysia is still in this phase.

4) No, as said Malaysia is an old fashioned and highly regulated finance market.

5,6,7,8) The concept is same running a company business, you are the boss, you hired worker and paid the salary, no matter the business is profitable or not. Major complaint of this issue is from high initial service charge of 5-6% and annual management of 1.5%, which seems a bit high, more related to 8

9) Yes, it can be done and should be done.

Just my 2 cents.

howszat
post May 23 2009, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(c0cac0la @ May 23 2009, 03:34 AM)
9) Given the above, I would also think you may want to consider this: If the fund manager is more prone to taking higher risk, which has higher return, it is best to engage them during the bull time. When bear market comes, just withdraw your money and put it into bond or other fixed income product. Isn't it better to make use of fund managers for what they are good at, rather than discount them completely ? Would like to hear your opinion on this.
*
Yes, I agree investors should attempt to do capital preservation by withdrawing in a bear market (hopefully before, and not after). In fact, you don't have to withdraw as many fund houses allow you to switch to low risk funds, and then switch back in future without incurring any service charges.

But when do you do it is not an easy question to answer, unless you have perfect hindsight. You don't want to do it too often as that would defeat the purpose of a fund manager managing on your behalf. Even in a bear market, you may not want to do it just in case the market goes back up. But what is a bear market? If you look at the charts, there were a couple of periods in 2007 where there were sharp downturns, but then the markets recovered pretty quickly and went even higher.

So what do you do? Sit and wait for the markets to recover? Or sell? If you sat and waited in 2007, you would be right. If you sat and waited in 2008, you would be wrong. The decision is yours. smile.gif
mita
post May 23 2009, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE
This has been proven WRONG. Malaysia had not recover from the 97/98 recession while others has. So, what makes you think that Malaysia can recover this recession??


I guess with a brain size of testicle like yours you can't see very well how interconnected our economy with other nations, If USA and Japan go broke, there won't be any trading between us and them. They would start pulling out their factories and investment out of our nation. When these developed nations recover, obviously, our economy is going to recover as well because there will be FDI and trading taking place between us and them. We are truly going to prosper or sink together though at different levels. When i say the word "recover", it means job employment, business/trading activities and etc .



QUOTE
Bingo. Unless you are Warren Buffet, you are IGNORANT.

In personal finance, there are ONLY 2 kinds of people,

1) Those who know that they know nothing.

2) Those who do not know that they know nothing.


No, i'm not, I was just trying to enlighten someone like you

QUOTE
So, tell me when the crash going to happen and when it is going to stop?? You DO NOT KNOW. And, nobody knows. So, a strategy that is based on TIMING does not work either.


There is a thing called Trend research and Forecast. You don't know the exact date when it will happen but you know it will happen . I avoided the latest market crash and made some money.

http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html

Your ignorance on global market and economy bemused me and you're calling me ignorant ? What a joke ...

This post has been edited by mita: May 23 2009, 06:09 PM
SUShenry_swk
post May 23 2009, 07:04 PM

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warning for all the people here, be very careful what some people says here... I ASKED A VERY SIMPLE QUESTION, and he/she dont want to answer.

This post has been edited by henry_swk: May 23 2009, 07:06 PM


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dreamer101
post May 23 2009, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(mita @ May 23 2009, 05:56 PM)
I guess with a brain size of testicle like yours you can't see very well how interconnected our economy with other nations, If USA and Japan go broke, there won't be any trading between us and them. They would start pulling out their factories and investment out of our nation. When these developed nations recover, obviously,  our economy is going to recover as well because there will be  FDI and trading taking place between us and them. We are truly going to prosper or sink together though at different levels.  When i say the word "recover", it means job employment, business/trading activities and etc .
No, i'm not, I was just trying to enlighten someone like you
There is a thing called Trend research and Forecast. You don't know the exact date when it will happen but you  know it will happen . I avoided the latest market crash and made some money.

http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html

Your ignorance on global market and economy bemused me and you're calling me ignorant ? What a joke ...
*
mita,

<<If USA and Japan go broke, there won't be any trading between us and them. They would start pulling out their factories and investment out of our nation. When these developed nations recover, obviously, our economy is going to recover as well because there will be FDI and trading taking place between us and them. We are truly going to prosper or sink together though at different levels. When i say the word "recover", it means job employment, business/trading activities and etc .
No, i'm not, I was just trying to enlighten someone like you>>

You DO KNOW that our FDI is going down year by year even before this recession. Hence, we have problem of our own not related to this global recession.

<< There is a thing called Trend research and Forecast. You don't know the exact date when it will happen but you know it will happen . I avoided the latest market crash and made some money.

http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html >>

I have been in this for 20 years. And, every year, someone claim that there is a new XXX technique. And, they made money for a while until they went broke.

I wish you best of luck.

<<Your ignorance on global market and economy bemused me and you're calling me ignorant ? What a joke ...>>

You do not even understand what I am saying. You have NO IDEA about what is going on in Malaysia ECONOMY that is not related to global condition.

We HAVE NOT recovered from 97/98. Over the past few years, we are dependent on the TWO OILS for growth. But, our manufacturing sector (other than oil and gas ) is sliding even before this recession. Ditto for our FDI.

The recession will just speed up the decline that is happening even before the recession.

Dreamer



mita
post May 23 2009, 07:54 PM

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QUOTE
http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html >>

I have been in this for 20 years. And, every year, someone claim that there is a new XXX technique. And, they made money for a while until they went broke.

I wish you best of luck.


The trend forecast done by Gerald Celente is based on analysis of present event, trend, fundamentals and a whole host of factors. I can understand your difficulty in acknowledging (him) because you're just trying to win the argument here . But that doesn't mean you shouldn;t expand your knowledge by reading and understanding other tools/analyses to give you a better edge in the market

QUOTE
I wish you best of luck.

Same to you too.. We all need some luck to succeed .


QUOTE
You do not even understand what I am saying. You have NO IDEA about what is going on in Malaysia ECONOMY that is not related to global condition.


Of course i know what's going on in Malaysia, I'm pissed at what's going on but as i have said before , as part of a globalized economy, we are truly going to sink and rise together. Maybe we will rise so much slower than our neighbours but i don't know for sure.


QUOTE
The recession will just speed up the decline that is happening even before the recession.

Yes, Japan GDP is estimated to sink 16% , Spain unemployment rate is at 17% as we speak. Iceland is bankrupt with its government gone. Boss napping in France and etc

Have you seen TOYOTA TENT CITY ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHrNfxEg8Ls

This post has been edited by mita: May 23 2009, 07:58 PM
dreamer101
post May 24 2009, 01:40 AM

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QUOTE(mita @ May 23 2009, 07:54 PM)
Of course i know what's going on in Malaysia, I'm pissed at what's going on but as i have said before , as part of a globalized economy, we are truly going to sink and rise together. Maybe we will rise so much slower than our neighbours but i don't know for sure.

*
mita,

<<we are truly going to sink and rise together. >>

My POINT which you are missing is this. Due to INHERENT problem in Malaysia's economy,

Malaysia economy will sink faster with global recession. But, it will not rise when the global economy recover. Malaysia's economy was sinking even before this global recession.

DReamer


Added on May 24, 2009, 1:50 am
QUOTE(mita @ May 23 2009, 07:54 PM)

The trend forecast done by Gerald Celente is based on analysis of present event, trend, fundamentals and a whole host of factors. I can understand your difficulty in acknowledging (him) because you're just trying to win the argument here . But that doesn't mean you shouldn;t expand your knowledge by reading  and understanding other tools/analyses to give you a better edge in the market

*
mita,

Let me give you two choices

A) 90% of the mutual fund manager cannot beat their bench mark index over the long run. So, in order to beat the mutual fund manager, you just buy the bench mark using passive index fund approach. This approach had been proven to work over a long period of time up to 100 years of history. And, you do not need to know ANYTHING to use this approach. You JUST have to accept that you are STUPID and average is good enough for you.

B) Some unknown technique that claim to be better than 90% of mutual fund manager. And, you have NO IDEA whether it will work over the long run. In order to work, you have to invest a lot time and energy and pray that you are better than 90% of mutual fund manager.

So, tell me would you choose (A) or (B)??

I am an investor. I setup my strategy and then I go to sleep for 5 years. I have a life to live. I do not want to spend my time watching the market. And, by the way, my STUPID method beat 90% of mutual fund manager. And, that is good enough as compare to some unknown method.

The ONLY kind of people that will choose (B) is a gambler. I prefer to own the casino instead.

Dreamer



This post has been edited by dreamer101: May 24 2009, 01:50 AM
SUSKinitos
post May 24 2009, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ May 23 2009, 11:56 AM)

5,6,7,8) The concept is same running a company business, you are the boss, you hired worker and paid the salary, no matter the business is profitable or not. Major complaint of this issue is from high initial service charge of 5-6% and annual management of 1.5%, which seems a bit high, more related to 8

*
If these is an issue, how about considering boutique funds like Singular Asset Management and many others catering for investors that are more sophisticated and had higher risk tolerance (high net worth private investors).


secretsquirrel
post May 27 2009, 10:08 AM

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[quote=henry_swk,May 23 2009, 07:04 PM]warning for all the people here, be very careful what some people says here... I ASKED A VERY SIMPLE QUESTION, and he/she dont want to answer.


I know http://www.taifook.com would trade HS, if thats what u want to know. Or simply make good use of your COMPUTER to search it on your own, if thats all u want to know.

I see u as someone without manner cos u expose PERSONAL MESSAGE. It is horrible.

This post has been edited by secretsquirrel: May 27 2009, 10:16 AM
SUShenry_swk
post May 27 2009, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(secretsquirrel @ May 27 2009, 10:08 AM)
I know http://www.taifook.com would trade HS, if thats what u want to know. Or simply make good use of your COMPUTER to search it on your own, if thats all u want to know.

I see u as someone without manner cos u expose PERSONAL MESSAGE. It is horrible.
*
in the private message : he only tells me not working in m'sia, loss at beginning win later.. this is BIG DEAL? im without manner? im trying to warning for all the people here, be very careful what some people says here (refer post #68)... I ASKED A VERY SIMPLE QUESTION, and he/she dont want to answer. laugh.gif

b00n
post May 27 2009, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(henry_swk @ May 27 2009, 11:57 AM)
in the private message : he only tells me not working in m'sia, loss at beginning win later.. this is BIG DEAL? im without manner? im trying to warning for all the people here, be very careful what some people says here (refer post #68)... I ASKED A VERY SIMPLE QUESTION, and he/she dont want to answer.  laugh.gif
*

He posted from HK, so you figure that out.

Btw, is there any relevance to this topic?
It's an open debate/discussion on funds and investment. Anyone can have their input.

secretsquirrel
post May 27 2009, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(aichiban @ May 27 2009, 12:38 PM)
Is this a "see im right, dont trust others" thread?
Coz its the trend here

Everyone make a good call once in a while, same goes for bad ones
I dont see the need of boasting when u make a few good calls
*
I dont know yet, might not have to see it this way yet, Since im a kepo, and one would strive to keep/get as much $ as possible, i see it as an opportunity to learn more by waiting patience for what TS has been trying to share.... which is None so far...


Added on May 27, 2009, 1:01 pm
QUOTE(henry_swk @ May 27 2009, 12:31 PM)
refer post #78

your question : 2) Whether he knows (1) or not, what has it got to do with you?, so are you saying rockcrawler does not want to tell me which broker he/she use? if thats the case, then whats the point telling everyone in this forum, how much he/she has made money from Hang Seng, when to buy/sell Hang seng and yet cannot tell people which broker he/she use?

and im warning publicly to all people here because since rockcrawler told me has more than 10 years of experience in Hang Seng, then naturally i would try to ask more information about market he trade, what i can learn from him/her and stuff. yet he/she doesnt want to reply my private message (refer #68). you call this man/woman is either talk cock or potential con man on the net? and i never ask any personal question from him/her either..  laugh.gif
*
Henry - u may remain in any status u like, but attacking other as a first move is always a bad move.

No, i didnt say he 'does not want to tell you which broker he uses', i only say he might not wish to tell anything beyond what he has told us/u in pm. Thats a way we should remain open minded in order to absorb more... no?

I dont know what is the point he is telling how much he has been earning, i guess it is a way he tried to proof he is right in his judgement? we need to read his 2nd and 3rd episode before we can judge if he is right or not....

He doesnt reply your #68 HAS NOTHING to do you to continue learning from his 10yrs of experience. U can still try to learn from him, if u can lower your guard and be a little patience. U dont have to jump into a conclusion by calling other names...

I have been working with MANY Fund Managers before and they are relatively too focus on the trades and needing a big space to stress out, than other workaholics. I tend to stand on the fend of TS cos i think he might have SOMETHING to tell us. If he just end up as a jerk, I'd conclude i have wasted my time like i have wasted it on reading /k/

Peace

This post has been edited by secretsquirrel: May 27 2009, 01:01 PM
SUShenry_swk
post May 27 2009, 01:22 PM

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QUOTE(secretsquirrel @ May 27 2009, 12:53 PM)

Henry - u may remain in any status u like, but attacking other as a first move is always a bad move.

No, i didnt say he 'does not want to tell you which broker he uses', i only say he might not wish to tell anything beyond what he has told us/u in pm.  Thats a way we should remain open minded in order to absorb more... no?

I dont know what is the point he is telling how much he has been earning, i guess it is a way he tried to proof he is right in his judgement?  we need to read his 2nd and 3rd episode before we can judge if he is right or not....

He doesnt reply your #68 HAS NOTHING to do you to continue learning from his 10yrs of experience.  U can still try to learn from him, if u can lower your guard and be a little patience. U dont have to jump into a conclusion by calling other names...

I have been working with MANY Fund Managers before and they are relatively too focus on the trades and needing a big space to stress out, than other workaholics. I tend to stand on the fend of TS cos i think he might have SOMETHING to tell us. If he just end up as a jerk, I'd conclude i have wasted my time like i have wasted it on reading /k/

Peace
*
can u recommend me to trade big money? i'll give you US$1million every year as commision. and fyi.. its hard to find good broker with ability to trade huge lot size. laugh.gif
secretsquirrel
post May 27 2009, 01:30 PM

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QUOTE(henry_swk @ May 27 2009, 01:22 PM)
can u recommend me to trade big money? i'll give you US$1million every year as commision. and fyi.. its hard to find good broker with ability to trade huge lot size.  laugh.gif
*
Thats exactly why we are here waiting like an idiot for TS to show himself again.
thy1986
post May 27 2009, 08:53 PM

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this thread damn funny lor... u all acusing others keep on bashing ts; but at the same time u all keep bashing the others as well...
most of the time u all not sharing nor giving constructive idea...
i believe others who read this topic has the same feeling as well... like a nose and mouth fight... sad.gif sad.gif

no one will believe the information on internet 100%, and they got the right to question TS on his findings or watever.... i can understand their feeling... since our dear TS claimed that he can outperform the market all the time, i am sure others want to learn his secret as well... if he don want to share then this topic is pointless also...

it might be important to know TS years of experience and background as well.. i believe before u all decided to buy a book u all will read about the author of the book and gain some insight of the author experience as well.... it happens here too.... there are a few cases that MNC did not understand the country they will soon operate, and the business cant perform as good as the origin country... thts the reason why MNC will hire local to manage the business oversea, bcoz they are more familiar with their own country... so if TS is from hong kong he might not know malaysia financial market as well as others....

since TS is not replying why don't we just relax.. and continue the topic "whether investors perform better than the fund manager themselves"..

from my point of view, i believe that we should set a min limit to wat we claim as investment...bcoz rm10k is an investment; rm 1 million also an investment.... but the nature of both is difference... i don't see any strong reason to monitor the market like fund managers did, if we only invest rm10k.... however, you might need to keep on monitor fund managers performance from time to time if you invest rm1 million with them...

i don believe you can earn rm3k from your rm10k investment every month(constantly); and here is the reason fund managers come in... They will monitor the market for u and u can continue your current job or business... this is a type of diversification also... imagine if u lose your rm10k but u still got your current job to keep u stay strong.... unless you so bad luck lose rm10k and your job at the same time.... sweat.gif sweat.gif

anyway if fund managers keep on under perform for the past 10 years, i don think any investors will stick with them for another 10 years... fund managers are competing with each other as well... for the current financial crisis, i believe that we cant curse fund managers as well... most of them depends on rating agencies too...

just my 2 cents... dont flame me...
TSrockcrawler
post May 27 2009, 09:19 PM

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QUOTE(c0cac0la @ May 23 2009, 04:34 AM)
I am reasonably entertained by this thread, and makes me think a lot. Questions:

1) You are implying that Fund Managers are allowed and encouraged to take excessive risk, while I thought it is regulated. May be not in Malaysia, I suppose. 


I also thought it has been well regulated when i started to work in this field 15 yrs ago but found out that regulators also dont know thoroughly about hedge fund cos this concept happened since 1990s only. Try to recall the situation in US in these 2 years, you would know even US people are so pro in investment, they still cant regulate hedge fund and investment banking.

QUOTE
2) If such a fund exist, given the higher risk taken, it tends to perform worse than other funds. If we believe in market with free competition, it will lose its client much faster than others, and soon out of business. Unless it is a monopoly or oligopoly market, such a fund should be and would be short lived. Again, is this very different in Malaysia ?


high risker usually means higher returns and these funds are usually outperform in bull markets and so they should not perform worse than the other funds. By the way, investors love risk so much. If you tell someone that you could generate 5-10% only "sure win" , guaranteed.....i think not many people are interested still.

QUOTE
3) All financial institution is governed and regulated on the amount of risk they took, basic measurement such as the Greek factors, and Value At Risk calculations should be reported to the central bank regulatory. Is that not the case for Malaysia ?


i can tell you i'm quite academic when i was studying in university and i knew every single formulae in finance. However, when i really work in finance, it seems like only myself or few people remember these formulae. Of course, fund managers will not be included.

QUOTE

4) Hedge funds does not operate based on 'hedging' per se, but rather they do delta hedging using Black Sholes formula. However, there are funds that don't and still call themselves hedge fund. Is there any hedge funds in Malaysia ? Without the ability to short the market, I would imagine delta hedging is impossible.


same as my answer for question 3. 80% hedge fund managers only use long/short gross net exposure method for hedging. This gross/net method is just a simple +-x/ calculation without even using a scientific calculator. i cant imagine if we require them to use Black Scholes to calculate hedging ratio, they will switch back to work in long fund. By the way, i dont quite agree with the black scholes as it assumed normal distribution but the reality is not.

QUOTE
5) The key concept of finance is all about opportunity cost. When a person hire a fund managers and pay him for transaction brokerage fees, you mentioned it is a 'head you win, tail I lose' situation, but do not forget the person frees up his time in doing those transactions and able to use those time to earn money. Some would argue that what is important is 'Can you earn more than the brokerage if you were to do it yourself?' rather than declare that paying brokerage mutual funds is not worth it. What is your opinion on this ?


no comment....but if you have enough trading knowledge, you should get rid of fund mgrs and trade for yourself and that is the main theme of my blog here.

QUOTE
6) The same opportunity cost goes on hiring a fund manager. If one were to spend time pick up finance and investment as a subject (depends on your maths and econs foundation, it can be done in 3 months to few years), and then willing to do analysis on all companies that he is tracking (which is time consuming) and also collect and consolidate market information (super time consuming for a normal person), I see a huge amount of time and effort invested. Time, is money. I would imagine the question is back to 'How much can you earn with those time spent on other areas, such as your job?". What do you suggest ?


"time consuming for normal person".....really right and that's why normal person cant win.

QUOTE

7) Imagine a person spent all the above time and effort and now become capable of managing his own investment, his cost is probably still higher than a fund manager, because fund manager would be able to spread his cost over larger amount of transactions (and more clients), compare to the individual. Can the individual really do it more cost effective than a fund manager ?


it depends.....you could argue that trading in a fund is actually not flexible cos you need to deal with liquidity of stocks and you can even buy tiny cap stock due to illiquidity.

QUOTE

8) Assuming both can do the same efficiency and effectiveness in investment, which would also translate to the fact that the chances of success is the same. The individual can make the same mistake as the fund managers. The only difference is how risk averse is the individual. If the individual is highly risk seeking, he/she will potentially bet bigger than the fund (which should be regulated on total risk committed). So I suppose your suggestion is for investor who is highly risk averse, who would bet lesser than the fund manager and therefore lost less money should the bet turn bad. What do you think ?


kind of agree.

QUOTE
9) Given the above, I would also think you may want to consider this: If the fund manager is more prone to taking higher risk, which has higher return, it is best to engage them during the bull time. When bear market comes, just withdraw your money and put it into bond or other fixed income product. Isn't it better to make use of fund managers for what they are good at, rather than discount them completely ? Would like to hear your opinion on this.
*
you can do that.....that make sense to me. Remember that involved a great skill and knowledge to determine whether it's bull or bear. If you can do that accurately, you dont need fund mgr at all.



This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 27 2009, 09:20 PM
SUSKinitos
post May 27 2009, 10:33 PM

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Well done, you guys actually are putting words in his mouth. Has he contribute anything? He knows NOTHING AGAIN

Things he said about hedge funds is totally wrong. All hedge funds are not for the general public, the Mad Dog Fund??? who are the victims? the average joe in the streets?

In short "Hedge funds are privately organized, loosely regulated and professionally managed pools of capitals not widely available to the public".

Example : A private equity team has agreed to buy BankUnited's banking operations

This post has been edited by Kinitos: May 27 2009, 10:46 PM
secretsquirrel
post May 28 2009, 08:12 AM

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Henry and I were here for fun. Please ignore us. We are good friends within PMs smile.gif TS might not have a big contributions yet, but your point to strike him as EVERYTHING IS WRONG has been a weak point unless u can beat him completely with some other points
Peter_APIIT
post Jan 28 2012, 11:21 AM

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All investments need to stick to basic theory like Dollar Cost Average and Buy low sell high like WB.

There are some other factors as well like real life experience, market trend analysis and forecast and stock activity analysis.

Most importantly, don't make you own decision based on others people's decision and human mind thinking.

This post has been edited by Peter_APIIT: Jan 28 2012, 11:22 AM

 

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