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 Stock market V19, Chit chat in the market

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kmarc
post Dec 24 2008, 03:25 PM

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Anybody knows when the US stimulus package is coming out? http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/23/news/econo...dex.htm?cnn=yes

Potential rally in the making.... hmm.gif
kmarc
post Dec 25 2008, 08:24 AM

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Penang issues stopwork order on rail project (MMC-GAMUDA Joint Venture) : http://sensecents.blogspot.com/2008/12/pen...er-on-rail.html

Steel set for rebound? http://www.cnbc.com/id/28377285

My NOOB stock-trading gut tells me that a rally (baby bull! biggrin.gif) might be coming soon..... what do you guys think?

However, I'm still holding on to some bullets, just in case it doesn't...... blush.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 25 2008, 08:33 AM
kmarc
post Dec 25 2008, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE
"As such, we only see a market recovery after March 2009 when the issue is hopefully resolved," it added.


Aikes! I was hoping it would rally in Q1...... doh.gif

If that is the case, then I guess I have to keep my bullets first..... if any of my counters rally, will sell it off ASAP......

Hmmm... maybe should go for those politically-linked counters.... hmm.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 25 2008, 01:06 PM
kmarc
post Dec 25 2008, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Dec 25 2008, 02:23 PM)
Certain counters can go up....  Valuecap, EPF, Tabung Haji, Army fund got money reload back to shoot..

Lionind drop back around 0.66..
Zelan drop back till 0.815..

Profit taking and some weak shareholder with no holding power selling their stocks.
I feel once the holiday mood over, the big players will start to buy back these counters.
New year will start with a new bang in KLSE?

I bought some more shares yesterday.  laugh.gif

icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
You went for ZELAN and LIONIND again? I will only grab them if they go lower....

Anyway, HwangDBS actually recommended these stocks:

Dividend picks:
- Public bank
- PLUS
- BAT
- YTLPOWER
- Litrak

Value picks:
- AMMB
- IJM
- KNM
- WCT

Top sells:
- SIME sad.gif
- Maybank
- BCHB
- Bursa

I looked through these counters and it seems that I'm too late! Most of the recommended counters are already increasing in price! sad.gif

The only one that hasn't increase is KNM.... looks like the bottom? (If oil prices don't fall further).... really tempting to buy more of KNM... (as it is recommended by a few research house....)

Attached Image

Taken from "The STAR"

Note : I bought LCL because the charts looks like that too! laugh.gif (And also recommended by some research houses wink.gif )

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 25 2008, 04:14 PM
kmarc
post Dec 26 2008, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Dec 26 2008, 12:29 AM)
I only buy more Zelan shares, abit tempted to go in back lionind but i hold my bullet for zelan in case of plan B.
MMC got Power Plant build biz, theres high possiblity MMC will gives part of its project to Zelan to handle.

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewi...ticleid/2853005

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...43&sec=business

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...58&sec=business
I feel Zelan prospect to excel is very good maybe in mid/long term.
Ya, KNM at 0.40 - 0.385 quite attractive but oil price still unstable and might drop further. For swing trades less capital of investment should be ok, i guess.
Will KNM be a black horse?  hmm.gif

icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
Looks like Zelan not moving.... I Q at 0.780.... quite low as I don't think it will drop so fast....

Errr..... what's a black horse? blink.gif

QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 26 2008, 09:27 AM)
Oil price just hit 35 level.  thumbup.gif
It will be sometimes, before oil price will rally again. Until economy showing sign of recovery, people will just adopt wait and see game, we just in the period after big commodities bubble has been burst.
*
Aikes! I thought I will Q at a lower price so that I won't get it..... Q at 0.390..... sweat.gif
kmarc
post Dec 26 2008, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Dec 26 2008, 11:29 AM)
Ya..Zelan buyers quite weak.. Seller alot.. sianz.. Looks like year end window dressing is more like a false alarm or already over liao.

Black horse or black stallion in stock market is stock tat can move up strong, fast n high.
Looks like my target OSKProp still moving up ... 0.365/0.37.. damn...
its a black horse.
icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
Yeah.... year-end rally no steam at all..... have to wait for CNY rally! thumbup.gif

ZELAN Q at 0.770... no go...

KNM Q at 0.390.... ALL MATCHED!! shocking.gif

QUOTE(sampoo @ Dec 26 2008, 02:48 PM)
prepared for the rally, i can felt it. >>> Next week lah  brows.gif
*
Me too... my NOOB guts tell me so! cool2.gif

QUOTE(mo_meng @ Dec 26 2008, 03:07 PM)
need some input here .. uchitech .. should i sell it or keep for long term?
*
UCHITEC projected dividend next year is quite high.... 15-16%...

Even the 6 cents dividend is already around 6%! rclxms.gif

You could probably keep it for long term.... wink.gif

QUOTE(omores @ Dec 26 2008, 05:19 PM)
You me both at 2.34. Hehehhee.
*
Yeah.... any plans to average down further? I'm thinking of doing that once I get more bullets....
kmarc
post Dec 26 2008, 05:52 PM

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QUOTE(mo_meng @ Dec 26 2008, 05:40 PM)
i thought u said u will get ur bonus last week or this week .. still hvnt get ah
*
Sort of. Due to some technical problems, I only got half my bullets.... the other half still waiting for admin office (government) to settle vmad.gif

Also keeping some bullets to average down... don't think I will go for any new counters at the moment....

Next target, to average down is RESORT and ZELAN.... smile.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 26 2008, 05:53 PM
kmarc
post Dec 26 2008, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(mo_meng @ Dec 26 2008, 05:56 PM)
wow looks like u going to get many mths of bonus here congratulation
*
No leh... We government servant on half month bonus lar (this month)..... the other half is my wife's bonus..... biggrin.gif

Her money is my money.... whistling.gif


Added on December 26, 2008, 5:59 pm
QUOTE(omores @ Dec 26 2008, 05:54 PM)
Oh yeah, I think good news will come to those who keep it until after the S'pore casino opens. I will probably avg down further. smile.gif
*
Yeah, me too.... will wait for it to go down a bit more....

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 26 2008, 06:00 PM
kmarc
post Dec 26 2008, 09:23 PM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Dec 26 2008, 06:33 PM)
If you want to average down Zelan, better do it before EPF start sapu Zelan again.
On 18 Dec, Epf bought zelan shares till the price go up 0.86.

Now only 2 more trading days Tues-Wed before new year..
Will there be a suprise rally? I doubt it.. all ppl on holiday mood liao... big fund managers most of them on leaves for holiday
Only some small fish like us still buy/sell in KLSE  laugh.gif
*
Hmmm..... like that, have to grab ZELAN next week....

You're saying there won't be a rally year-end right? Maybe CNY rally?

Anyway, next tuesday and wednesday I'll be on leave... have to baby-sit my baby, can do stock trading at the same time! whistling.gif

Bursa expected to rebound in Q1 : http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html

QUOTE(omores @ Dec 26 2008, 08:25 PM)
China retail sales surpasses 10 trillion yuan mark for first time
08:32, December 23, 2008
China's retail sales had broken the 10-trillion-yuan (1.5 trillion U.S. dollars) mark for the first time by the middle of this month, the Ministry of Commerce said on Monday.

In a statement posted on its website, the ministry said the country's retail sales for the entire 2008 is expected to reach 10.8 trillion yuan, jumping around 21 percent from the year-earlier level.

"Despite the negative impact of the global financial crisis on the domestic market, retail sales will continue to grow as Christmas and the New Year approach," it said.

According to earlier figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's retail sales in the year to November rose 21.9percent annually to 9.78 trillion yuan.

The Ministry of Commerce said China's retail sales had risen quickly over the past three decades. The retail sales was merely 155.9 billion yuan in 1978. It jumped to 1.1 trillion yuan in 1992,5 trillion yuan in 2003 and 8.9 trillion yuan in 2007.
Go parkson Go parkson Go parkson!  thumbup.gif I love mainland Chinese disposable income and spending power
*
Good for those who bought PARKSON... thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 26 2008, 09:34 PM
kmarc
post Dec 27 2008, 05:14 AM

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This is a good analysis regarding market prognosis... if only it comes true : http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/

Maybe (JUST maybe), we can use this as a guide? hmm.gif (Quoted from the webpage)

QUOTE
The best guide for locating current markets' bottom: WHEN USD and YEN BOTH STARTS TO FALL IN VALUE in a sustained pattern. When these two currencies fall, it show a willingness to move exposure into other currencies or assets, be it stock or bonds. Before they are reflected in the prices, the signal will be most apparent in the currencies.

However, even then we cannot really ascertain a buying trigger. So, my advice would be to break up you investing funds into 3 portions, get ready your list of stocks to buy.

Catalyst #1: When yen/usd rate moves back to 94, plonk down 1/3 of your funds

Catalyst #2: When the rate moves to 97, move the second portion

Catalyst #3: When the rate breaks 100, move the rest in

A point not missed here is that if yen weakens against the USD, the latter would be gaining in strength. However, I am using the yen/usd rate as a guide, as I believe when the yen starts to weaken, the USD would also weaken, but not by as much - i.e. the USD would gain ground against yen but at the same time lose ground against the euros and other major currencies. I use the yen/usd rate because that is most widely followed. The yen is used as the determinant because it was the most popular currency for carry trades, the unbelievable strength now is due to risk aversion as the Japanese exporters are basically losing money and cannot compete below 90.


This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 27 2008, 05:17 AM
kmarc
post Dec 29 2008, 11:08 AM

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Haha... astrologer also predicting a CNY rally! rclxms.gif http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...6943&sec=nation
kmarc
post Dec 29 2008, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Dec 29 2008, 02:12 PM)
That reminds me of Year 1998 CNY, many stocks went limit up, really mad and insane.

History could sometimes repeat itself, but I think more of Obama's factor.

Hope sometimes could heal a person's  health, maybe the share markets as well hmm.gif

Aren't share markets are always ahead of the real economy ? Either more positive or otherwise ?

*
Isn't it usually ahead by 3-6 months? That's what I read anyway.....

Really hope history would repeat itself.... like it always do! thumbup.gif

QUOTE(viper88 @ Dec 29 2008, 03:03 PM)
Wa.. but i check some O9 Chinese Zodiac horoscopes quite different leh.....

http://www.chinesefortunecalendar.com/2009/2009Zodiac.htm

http://www.jmine.com/chinese_horoscope2009.htm

Last year early 2008, alot investment house also says its a buying oppurtunity as some blue chip counters drop alot ady ... but..
those who go in early and din get out fast get slaughtered badly.. mid of year,  Sept 29 and also 28 Oct  ..
Cheers,
v_viper88
*
Wah! No wonder you're making money! thumbup.gif

No that bad leh... I particularly like the bolded part wink.gif

QUOTE
Companies and businesses that have expanded too rapidly and have done so without taking into account their cash flow and resource management will suffer badly this year. Furthermore, those companies and businesses that have not been giving fair value to their customers and clients will be badly affected as well. This is because, both customers and clients alike will be more selective in their choice of products and services and will choose those that give them fair value.

This will be a good year to make lots of money  smile.gif . However, it will lie in adopting conservative approaches rather than through quick and fast means. You will do well by focusing on the basic necessities that people require rather than luxury products and services. Go back to the basic fundamentals of business and you will see the rewards. Attempts to create wealth through unrealistic methods or by taking blind risks will be an expensive lesson to learn  (sad.gif buying stocks considered blind risk onot?).

Industries related to the military as well as relating to defense and security will do well with the greater likelihood of military deployments and wars as well as the greater threat of terrorist activities in many parts of the world. As for currencies, the US Dollar might strengthen appreciably against other currencies. Banking, financial services, accounting and insurance might fare better. Commodity prices might strengthen especially for metals (Go go KINSTEL!  rclxms.gif). Industries that will not fare as well will be those related to the arts and the creative fields such as advertising, marketing and media.

Wishing you all the best and good luck for the year of the Ox.


One link stated that once the US dollar shows a strengthening trend against the Yen, then world economy is on the way to recovery.... I posted that link in the above post...... look up! laugh.gif

Anyway, here's something nice to read : http://finances.about.com/od/investmentsan..._Retirement.htm

One of the interesting quote, which most of us already know, is this "When do you know it is the bottom? Well, it is really actually fairly easy to spot - about 3 months AFTER it happens!" sweat.gif laugh.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 29 2008, 04:32 PM
kmarc
post Dec 30 2008, 08:25 AM

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Woo hoo! A new trading day! rclxms.gif

Wonder whether Hong Leong will rally..... anybody going for this counter? hmm.gif
kmarc
post Dec 30 2008, 08:43 AM

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QUOTE(htt @ Dec 30 2008, 08:32 AM)
HLB? Any reason? hmm.gif
*
Vietnam gave licence to HLB to open their banks there.... but already given the status to HSBC, Standard chartered and other banks prior to this.....

You guys target any counters today? Got any goreng stocks? biggrin.gif

Anyway, Asian and Euro markets up yesterday..... KLSE too? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 30 2008, 08:44 AM
kmarc
post Dec 30 2008, 12:55 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Dec 30 2008, 12:19 PM)
This morning, I'm aiming both these shares. So far, still can't get any... Maybe my target price is too low...
*
How low did you Q?

Looks like there are some window dressing after all. Now the next thing to look forward to is the baby bull in the year of the Ox! rclxms.gif

Off topic, just to warn you guys regarding another scam. I just received a SCAM sms which is below:
QUOTE
Congratulations. Nombor SimCard Anda tlh m-nangi (HADIAH UTAMA) WANG TUNAI Rm 15,000.00, dr. Syrkt SHELL.BHD. Call/sila dail; 012-8343323. Terima kasih


As if I will fall for it. doh.gif Mixing English and Malay some more....... if it were true, I'd buy SHELL stocks! laugh.gif
kmarc
post Dec 30 2008, 02:36 PM

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@viper88 - what do you think of OSKPROP-WA? Dropped from 15 cents to 2.5 cents! blink.gif

Asking you since you are eyeing OSKPROP..... hmm.gif

Note : Looking at the trading, looks like somebody is playing around... selling 1 share.... doh.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 30 2008, 02:37 PM
kmarc
post Dec 30 2008, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(yang yang @ Dec 30 2008, 06:05 PM)
doh.gif Dunno why it drop?  hmm.gif
*
UCHITEC dropped probably because it already gave out the dividend?

Hoping that YTLPOWER would also drop further after the dividend!

QUOTE(viper88 @ Dec 30 2008, 07:36 PM)
Better go for OSKPROP instead of its WA..
[attachmentid=739804]

Warrant have expiry dates and its price will drop more if its close to its expiry date.
OSK-WA expiry is coming soon 5 April 2009.

Currently OSKPROP ady up since 0.39-0.30 range. Already up..but transaction vol drop..not sure can go up more.

I invested only in Resort and Zelan. Don't want to play 2 many counters. Need to safe some money for backup plans ma... laugh.gif
But i ady use some of my backup money to buy Zelan 25000unit  last week..  tongue.gif

Zelan is doing quite well today. icon_idea.gif
Lotsa seller wanna load off.. zz..  if not can go up higher
Hope Zelan can break 0.90+ soon.

You buy in more Zelan today?

icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
I see.... No, I didn't get anymore Zelan as I will only buy it if it goes below 80 cents..... wow, that's a lot of units.... I only have 2000 units @ 0.785.... chicken feed compared to yours.... laugh.gif

Currently, I'm keeping my last bullets just in case I need to average down any of my counters. Still waiting for my other half of the bullets to come...

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 30 2008, 07:58 PM
kmarc
post Dec 30 2008, 11:57 PM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Dec 30 2008, 09:54 PM)
OSK stock investment strategy for 2009.

[attachmentid=740003]

Hope this info can hlp abit for LYN stock kakis.

icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
I know I can rely on you to give good references! notworthy.gif Thx!!!

This is what I hope.... that history would repeat itself. Take a look at the charts below (from your link):

Attached Image

Note the rally starting in January for both periods (red arrow), then a fall to a new low in the middle of the year (green arrow).

That's what I'm hoping for. That a baby bull comes in Q1 and then the continuation of the bear market to a new low in Q2/Q3..... (Of course, this is not my prediction. It is the predictions made by some research houses.... wink.gif)

That's the reason I plan to sell off what I can in Q1, then wait for Q2/Q3 to enter the stock market again (this is the period that I would go for blue chips counter & REITS). What do you guys think? hmm.gif

The other interesting to note is another drop (later on) after the new low...

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 31 2008, 12:05 AM
kmarc
post Dec 31 2008, 08:14 AM

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QUOTE(sampoo @ Dec 31 2008, 01:05 AM)
yes, u may right, but remember the period of rally may only take 1 month, but the burst is taking 3 months - 6 months times. let's said the rally is starting at the end of dec 08 and may end at end of jan 09 and follow by the busting Feb 09 - Aug 09, the market should be at the lowest at Aug - Sept 09, provided it already reach 500 - 650 marks.  hmm.gif

The patient is the winner of the games.  brows.gif
*
Yeah, impatience cost me a bit of paper loss..... sad.gif

Looks like another investment experts echoing what we hope will happen : http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...52&sec=business

So which counter is the best for "gorenging" during this period of year-end window dressing and CNY rally? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 31 2008, 08:15 AM
kmarc
post Dec 31 2008, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(mo_meng @ Dec 31 2008, 09:29 AM)
haha patient not everyone can control de need time & experience inorder to control ur "patient"
influences and greediness most of the time will stay on top of ur so call "patient"
*
nod.gif Today hands itchy to buy some more stocks..... haizzz....me so impatient... sad.gif

Gonna try some gorenging today.... blush.gif

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