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 Stock market V19, Chit chat in the market

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kmarc
post Jan 4 2009, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 4 2009, 05:13 PM)
I don't know about this stock, but from the statement straight away I can pin-point out the contradicted statement within as bolded.  biggrin.gif

As the research house is viewing it won't be affected too largely due to secured contract and earning gorwth expected to continue, then why lower the target price? Because market price goes down, so lower it so that it is achievable??  biggrin.gif

You only downgraded a stock and target price when future is bleak which you see earning is going to drop. If you see earning is going to rise, it is doesn't make sense to lower the target price.

Don't mean to recommend anything, nor saying the research is good or not, just pointed out the illogical part.
*
Ya lor.... dunno why. rclxub.gif

Here's another quote from another page "We continue to like the company for its strategic position to tap into new military and oil and gas fabrication works, good earnings visibility and its net cash position, which will enchance the group's ability to secure new jobs......... However, there could be a sector de-rating on concern of slower-than-expected inking of new contracts from oil majors, given the falling crude oil prices......"

Haizzz... difficult... difficult.... Looks like my impatience is getting the best of me again.... One side of me say "buy some more stocks before a possible rally" but the other side says "wait and see what happens next week when traders come back from their holidays"..... doh.gif

What are you guys going to do next week? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Jan 4 2009, 05:32 PM
kmarc
post Jan 4 2009, 07:58 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Jan 4 2009, 06:58 PM)
I will keep on waiting until my picks reached my target price... If not i will just let my cash sit in my ASW and getting interest instead of picking up the wrong counter at the wrong price..... wink.gif So far non of the stock price i feel comfortable to buy more...

It is better "regret you din buy" compare to "regret after you BOUGHT it" .... If you really don know where to park your money short term can try park at ASW or ASM TEMPORALILY

For the analyst most of the time they are bullshittting .... if they are really so good they won always so generous to tell ppl what counter to buy lol.... so is better trusting your own analysis if got question ask some expert here like Cherroy, Skidd, Sky1809  tongue.gif

If you notice most of the analyst always recommend a counter after it has rebound... which i also can do just by looking at the stock price.....
*
Haha... I guess that's true (the "regret" part). However, sometimes we can wait all we want but the price never comes down..... one example is YTLPOWER. Really want to get it but I want it to come down a bit first.....

Wished I could "park" some money in ASW/ASM but that opportunity only comes once in a while.

Anyway, I just bought "The Edge" Jan 5-11 edition. Woo hoo! Will post any interesting findings/recommendation, if any..... Gonna subscribe to this magazine... quite informative... thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Jan 4 2009, 08:08 PM
kmarc
post Jan 4 2009, 09:02 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jan 4 2009, 08:18 PM)
Well, getting contracts alone from the Government maybe not be a good idea. Furthermore, projects could be delayed due to lack of budgets> No doubt, they have orders in hand ( 2 billions )

They build small warships (BNS) , right ? Can they get constant orders from the Government, years after years ?

Why only from M'sia government alone, and not from Singapore  or Indonesia ? meaning politics still plays an important role.

They could fail in areas like OIL and Gas , that is the private and commercial sector. that is why a big doubt of their future ( Heavy Industries  in the long term ). heavy ind depends a lot on future FDIs, not easy to come by.

Again, in my opinion, this company depends a lot on our Government Budget. There are pro and cons . In a way, they might not be competitive in a free commercial world (MISC for example ).

Sorry too limited data to look at. Opinion could be biased. Those facts given made me think otherwise ( unfavorable )

Judge your own.
*
I see..... think I'll pass on this one then..... thx all for your opinion.

QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Jan 4 2009, 08:32 PM)
Sell me the edge for me for half price after you read it  tongue.gif
*
Haha, if you're in kuching, then I can lend it to you biggrin.gif

From "The Edge" - bombed-out stocks worth a look:
- Zelan (cry.gif sold off mine)
- KNM
- Ramunia
- MRCB
- Kinsteel

Interesting that they say Ramunia is also worth a look:
- a "sell" call on all analysts polled with bloomberg
- slipped well below the fair value pegged on it by AmResearch of 90 cents
- failed RTO left a cloud of uncertainty over Ramunia's prospects and capacity to clinch new contracts but the company still has a valuable asset in its yard, which is the largest fabrication yard in Southeast Asia, spanning 170 acres in Teluk Ramunia. In addition, Ramunia still has an ongoing business.... Recently, bagged new orders worth RM700 million from Shell and Petronas Carigali.... outstanding order book close to RM1 billion....
- reported higher-than-expected losses of RM280 million for its FY ended Oct 31,2008, mainly due to additional provisions
- analysts noted that they are not ruling out MISC relooking at Ramunia in the future.... also speculation brewing in the industry that there are at least two other parties looking at acquiring a stake in Ramunia for its fabrication yard

Here's their chart (Tomato sauce from "The Star Online"):

Attached Image

My kind of chart! laugh.gif Since I've got nothing else to grab at the moment, I'm thinking of queuing for Ramunia .... If get the stock, will keep in the fridge until something happens.... whistling.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Jan 4 2009, 09:06 PM
kmarc
post Jan 4 2009, 09:22 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jan 4 2009, 09:12 PM)
Read before you jump

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html

Again , judge your own.
*
Thx for the link but I read that a few days ago..... that's why I'm still thinking..... Not planning to buy much if I decided to get this counter (maybe 3000-5000 shares).... mainly for it's huge potential gains if everything goes well...... I'm prepared for the loss too, if it does happen....

Anyway, will have tonight to dream about it biggrin.gif .... probably Q at around 0.28......

This post has been edited by kmarc: Jan 4 2009, 09:22 PM
kmarc
post Jan 4 2009, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jan 4 2009, 09:37 PM)
The problem that I see :-

Most of us would just sell off some good stocks for a few sens profit ( for me , IOI bought at rm 2.24 and sold at rm 3+ ) and move into more riskier stocks ( with many unknowns and basically not familiar with ).

For that,  it would be good if we let say stick to good counters like YTL Power or KLK for longer term. biggrin.gif

Just my 2sen opinion.
*
I'm also waiting for those good counters to come down.... again, can wait till the cow comes home but they might just not drop to the price we want... sad.gif

Anyway, something else from "The Edge" - "The current rally seen on KLCI is seen by many as a bear trap. In fact, OSK Research is advising its clients to sell on strength in January in anticipation of ugly corporate results in the coming reporting season in February. "We continue to see the 4Q results season, which begins in earnest in February, to be poor, with many companies likely to take the opportunity to carry out 'kitchen sinking' exercises," says OSK Research, which expects selling to intensify in the next two months. Phillip Capital Management's chief investment officer..... he is buying progressively but not aggressively to take advantage of the current share price weakness. At the same time, he wants to reserve capital to pick up even better bargains should the market dip further...."

Haizzz... what to do with my KNM shares... sad.gif : http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/ (hmmm, there's some other info posted in the KNM thread)
- looks like KNM might be riskier than initially thought.... think I'll not Q for RAMUNIA yet...

This post has been edited by kmarc: Jan 4 2009, 10:33 PM
kmarc
post Jan 4 2009, 11:02 PM

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I read that blog too. The info is exactly the same as those in "The Edge". sweat.gif

Wished I had this info before I sold off ZELAN. Would have kept it for longer periods. My ABP for KNM is 0.425, so I guess it is not that bad.... will probably unload it these few weeks....

Strong defensive stocks is also my aim too, AFTER Q1 rally! laugh.gif

QUOTE(viper88 @ Jan 4 2009, 10:42 PM)
http://sensecents.blogspot.com/2009/01/3-s...worth-look.html

Sunday, January 4, 2009
3 Stocks worth a look

ZELAN – Analysts reckon Zeland’s share has been oversold and the current share price does not truly reflect the fundamental of the company. Analysts say Zelan is in net cash position of 59.3 mln as at September 30, 2008. It also has 82.7 mln shares of IJM worth 245.5 mln and its order book is 3.3 bln.

Zelan is also on its way to become a regional player in Power Station construction. 90% of its construction profits are from oversea projects.

About 60% of analysts polled with Bloomberg have a “buy” call with 12-month target price of 1.56.

KNM – Analysts believe the stock is currently trading at an attractive level given its global exposure. They say trading at FY2009 PE of only 3.1 times which is a 47% discount to 5.8 times of the Oil and Gas sector is unjustified.

Analysts are positive on KNM’s global reach and its abilities to provide value add services to its client more than before.

KNM’s 3Q net profit jumped 69% to 103.4 mln when compared with 61 mln a year ago.

85% of analysts polled with Bloomberg have a “buy” call on KNM with 12-month target price of 1.17.

RAMUNIA – Analysts say investors should not forget Ramunia’s capacity to clinch new contracts even though the failed RTO has clouded an uncertainty on its prospect. Further to that, the company still has valuable assets on its oil and gas fabrication yard. The yard, which is the largest in Southeast Asia, is spanning 170 acres in Teluk Ramunia.

Recently, the company also clinched a new contract worth 700 mln from Shell and PETRONAS bringing its order book close to 1 bln.

Analysts noted that they are not ruling out MISC relooking Ramunia in the future. There is also speculation that at least two other parties are looking to acquire Ramunia’s shares for its fabrication yard.

=====================================

For me, I'll hold Zelan and ride with its buyer strength, skip knm and ramunia as its risk quite high, maybe if KNM price drop to 0.40+/- can buy abit just to play.
This year 2009 will be quite tough as most analyst and feng shui ppl says.. most likely after CNY market might get weaker again.
Better stick to strong and defensive stock counter. Play safe..

icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
kmarc
post Jan 5 2009, 06:50 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jan 4 2009, 11:41 PM)
I thought Share Market represents the economy ahead. So CI fell from 1500 to 800++, meaning should factor in the expected poorer results. By looking at Oil and Crude CPO prices, you would know roughly the results of the plantations in Feb'09 or how the oil co fare. That is why you would be able to buy "low", though not cheap.

OSK , in my personal opinion, talks that sky is the limit during the bull time, and very badly esp during this hour. They did the same during the DOT.COM or Tech bull, saying sky was  the limit.

Many stocks were on their buy lists not so long along, NOW not worth a single sen ? hmm.gif They should warn us of any hanky panky then, why only now rclxub.gif  Don't you think speculations happen all the times, not something that is TOTALLY NEW AND STRANGE. It was more dangerous when CI was at 1500pts, right ?

Really have to read between the lines, and over and over again.

Just my 2sen opinion.
*
Yup. I was "speculating" laugh.gif that if I were in the stock market when the KLCI rallied to 1500, I would have exited all my positions except for the most defensive stocks. However, I was NOT in the stock market at that time so I guess I can't really say for sure.....

I think everybody was caught by this 2007/2008 crash and not only OSK. Anyway, gotta go to work, would be surprise if KLSE rallies again today......
kmarc
post Jan 5 2009, 01:49 PM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Jan 5 2009, 09:22 AM)
Yeah, market today very active. lotsa ppl grabbing stocks ady...

KNM and LCL going up.. kmarc... u make good money leh. rclxms.gif
My Resort finally break my average price 2.356 and Zelan also not bad... 0.93 .. rclxm9.gif
icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
Arrrgghhh! So sad, so sad..... now already too late to chase the market! sad.gif

I'm still holding on to KNM, LCL, SIME, RESORT, UCHITEC and KINSTEL. Not in large amounts though.... Will slowly sell them off...

Hmmm... wonder how long the rally can last....

Oopss, back to work. No time to goreng today.... sad.gif
kmarc
post Jan 5 2009, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Jan 5 2009, 02:04 PM)
No losses okla...

I check today Zelan transaction vol high most at price 0.93. Seems demand for this counter still strong.

Sam oso bought Sime at 5.50 today. His followers also will buy tat counter.
5++ no easy to move fast for short term. I din join coz i target low entry price counter preferably around rm2 or below.  laugh.gif  

icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers. icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
Still sad..... I won't be buying anything at the moment as everything is going up...

Yeah, I read his post... kind of guessed that he was referring to SIME.....

Eh? RM2 and below for SIME? sweat.gif

QUOTE(simplesmile @ Jan 5 2009, 02:08 PM)
No time to goreng is a good thing for some people like me.
Last Friday I on leave. Try to chase the market and goreng a few stocks. Last Friday KLCI up 2%, but that day I lose about 5%
Today I start work. No time to goreng. Just set my Q auto buy and sell. Today, I profit 3%
I think seeing the KLCI up and up make me lose my rational and just simply buy (in) and sell (out) just for the sake of wanting to be in the rally. In the end in out in out in out, but counters never move as expected.
*
I'm not going to run with the bull as I don't want to take the risk. Will stay at the sidelines for the moment and watch you guys earn money gorenging........ smile.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Jan 5 2009, 07:39 PM
kmarc
post Jan 5 2009, 09:08 PM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Jan 5 2009, 08:04 PM)
Nolar, I'm not refering RM 2 for SIME..
I go for those stock preferably below RM2 +/- like Resort , Zelan.. etcs

I swap my Resorts for Zelan. Made profit about 1.4K for Resorts.

I saw Zelan buying power is so strong in the evening.. big vol get wack fast at 0.93-0.945...
I grab more Zelan and my average price now is 0.88.

Actually wanted to grab MMCCorp at 1.16 but i feel Zelan have more rooms to expand/go higher price based on its strong buyer transaction 2day.
Zelan current PE is only 3.72 as per Jupiter online system rating and its price is oso cheaper than MMCCorp.

I feel Zelan can break the RM 1 barrier soon.  laugh.gif
From OSK KLSE tracker:
Zelan NTAps is 1.374  drool.gif
PE  is 3.6  icon_idea.gif

MMCCorp PE currently PE 6.57... Not bad.. this counter oso moving up till 1.19 at closing 2day.

Sometimes we have to monitor the price and vol transaction and buy into strength especially in bull market for good company with low PE.
This way we wont left out when the stock soar higher.

icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
I see...... I'm busy sometimes so can't monitor frequently....... sad.gif

I dunno what to shoot at the moment..... it was easy previously at I just choose plateuing stocks..... smile.gif

Besides ZELAN, are you holding any other stocks or are you targeting any other stocks? hmm.gif

MMC, WCT, IJM, GAMUDA, MUHIBBAH are counters that may benefit from pump-priming.... that's what I read in one of the blogs. Look at IJM, gain 10% today! shocking.gif
kmarc
post Jan 5 2009, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jan 5 2009, 09:33 PM)
ohh i wouldnt buy IOI now either, the risk is too high.

papa says, we must be patient. wait.

tongue.gif
*
So, let's hope crude oil prices drops, then CPO prices drops, then IOICORP, ASIATIC, KLK drops, then we all buy big big lots! laugh.gif

Last time I thought IOICORP at RM3.00 was too high, now I think it was cheap! doh.gif
kmarc
post Jan 5 2009, 09:42 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jan 5 2009, 09:41 PM)
indeed. and assuming i get to buy at 3 bucks, we (i mean, i) might have even sold it after making some peanuts.

my weak point sad.gif
*
Everybody's weak point. Should have kept my ZELAN and GAMUDA... sold off for some peanuts.... doh.gif
kmarc
post Jan 5 2009, 09:48 PM

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We're all upbeat about the market. KLCI might just rally higher and higher, especially with the upcoming "Obama effect".

However, don't forget about the possible bear trap. Here's previous charts again, just a reminder wink.gif


Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
kmarc
post Jan 5 2009, 10:27 PM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Jan 5 2009, 10:13 PM)
Lucky i'm off today. Can sit infront my PC to check stock market.  laugh.gif

Currently i only have Zelan in hand.
I'm targeting energy counters, O&G and gaming & defensive counters.
I noticed today some small finance counter like OSK, pmcap start to move up already.

Zelan, MMCCorp
Dialog
Resort, MPHB, Topglove

Maybe can grab some if the price is good.

IJM up 10%.. no wonder la Zelan so strong buyer 2day.  laugh.gif

DOw jones seems weak tonite...   unsure.gif
Hope wont spoil our KLSE rally again for 2molo.... sweat.gif

icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
I had previously already checked out all those counters you mentioned. All on an upward trend. The only ones that seemed to be more or less static are the steel companies (didn't look at all of them though).....

Hey, I don't mind a bit of red, then can pick up a few more stocks! thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Jan 5 2009, 10:27 PM
kmarc
post Jan 6 2009, 06:53 AM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Jan 5 2009, 11:13 PM)
Feng shui master says this year steel market not so good to invest.

If u interested in steel related counter, maybe u can try chk on Huaan. CIMB TP is 0.32.

Here are 2day research on Huaan from Jupiter
[attachmentid=748817]

Other counter that you can look into  is TGoffs.. its price still didnt go up much..
I havent chk much its recent detail yet.. last time i got aim this counter when its price about 0.28...bfr it start chiong to 0.90 few years back.. laugh.gif

icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
What? You also have JUPITER? sweat.gif

How many trading accounts do you have, BTW? hmm.gif

Anyway, was really considering HUAAN too when it was at 0.225..... but too late as it also rallied these few days....

TGoffs? Hmmm..... got any new info on this? I never read anything about this counter....

QUOTE(jason3c @ Jan 5 2009, 11:41 PM)
lionind is high beta. Steel is in high risk, so bank might require higher provision on them and might turn bad .......... so goreng goreng b4 mati kong .. hahahaha

just own opinion, not spreading rumours or wat

http://todayfinancialworld.blogspot.com
*
Most research houses are upbeat about steel companies in the long-term...... nice to buy and keep for an eventual rally..... that's what I think anyway....

Oopsss..... this is bad news for WCT right? http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html

Oil at USD48.81!!! shocking.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Jan 6 2009, 07:03 AM
kmarc
post Jan 6 2009, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Jan 6 2009, 10:28 AM)
Yeah.. i also told bfr ma.. i got OSK, CIMB, Maybank, Jupiter acct.
WCT also news on legoland etcs..but i see SG shareholders pulling out abit and its price oso quite high so i ignore tat counter.

This morning alot panic seller throw their stocks..
Zelan drop till 0.885 drool.gif
Resorts drop till 2.35  drool.gif

Too bad i already sold off Resort and bought Zelan yesterday. Didn't buy anything this morning and my internet line get disconnected few times..  vmad.gif

Those who grab Resort at 2.35 as  i recommended recently sure happy now..  laugh.gif

icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
Oh, forgot. blush.gif I only got maybank online trading account.... doh.gif

Wow..... lucky I didn't buy WCT... was on my list due to the potential gains during pump priming......

Now that WCT has dropped, might consider grabbing some once the price stabilizes......

Errr.... how do you see SG shareholders pulling out? hmm.gif
kmarc
post Jan 6 2009, 09:52 PM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Jan 6 2009, 09:20 PM)
See changes in shareholder.
SG  - >Temasek

Those who play oil counter really fatt tat lo...

Hope 2molo our KLSE can rally again...
Faster go up.. only about 13 more days before CNY. can hit 1000 den good la. icon_idea.gif

Obama said his stimulus US700++ billion plan can see the effect by end of this month or early of Feb.

Some ppl predict after CNY, our KLSE will drop back due to recession worldwide getting out of control.. hmm.gif

If US700 billion still cant stop this recession problem.. den i oso dunno how liao.
icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
I see..... still have lots of things to learn.... blush.gif

Now that prices are up, dunno when to sell pulak!!! doh.gif I for one believe that KLCI will drop again after Q1, based on the predictions that research houses have made.

Since I have never experienced "the bull", I looked at previous KLCI charts (2007/2008) which showed that Q1 rally can end either in Jan up to March! With the "Obama effect" and our own stimulus package, hopefully the rally will last a bit longer.

Once KLCI drop again, I'm going for blue chips and any value picks I can get my hands on.... for long term investment....

Say, when will our stimulus package come out? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Jan 6 2009, 10:41 PM
kmarc
post Jan 7 2009, 12:04 PM

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Arrrgghhh! I'm busy with my work.... sad.gif

This afternoon I come join the fun! thumbup.gif
kmarc
post Jan 7 2009, 03:59 PM

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I don't dare buy WCT until it's price stabilizes..... pump priming is still a bit way off so there's no reason why WCT should shoot up...... that's my 0.02 cents....

This post has been edited by kmarc: Jan 7 2009, 03:59 PM
kmarc
post Jan 7 2009, 06:23 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jan 7 2009, 05:29 PM)
If Chinese in China going to consume 20% less this year, then Parkson 's sales drop more.

Just an assumption only, may not be true.
*
That's why I'm not touching Parkson. With China's economy expected to slow down, PARKSON may fall further.... The same with HUAAN.....

QUOTE(simplesmile @ Jan 7 2009, 05:43 PM)
Yup, i fell into the bear rally trap and bought Zelan at 0.905 yesterday. I have no idea why Zelan is in downtrend. I also have no idea why it rally up 2 days ago other than ppl goreng it.
*
Really wonder why. Viper88, where are you? Do you think ZELAN will have a CNY rally? hmm.gif

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