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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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CKHong
post Jan 10 2011, 02:03 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Jan 10 2011, 12:20 PM)
Dear all,

Happy Anniversary of 100 pages, after 5% RPGT and 70 Loan Margin implemented, the price still not yet drop, some location has stagnant and some location still up up up, some new launching still in good respond.
Happy new year 2011............
*
still in BBB mode ? brows.gif
Veda
post Jan 10 2011, 02:27 PM

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There quite a few upcoming developments in 2011 that excites me. I aim to buy at least one unit in 2011, and hopefully another in 2012 biggrin.gif
CKHong
post Jan 10 2011, 02:33 PM

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upcoming developments.. can share the projects ? smile.gif
Veda
post Jan 10 2011, 02:39 PM

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The projects haven't been launched, so there's nothing to share. I'm eyeing PJ, Damansara, Sg Buloh.

Can refer to here:
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=1198894&hl=
TheDoer
post Jan 10 2011, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Jan 10 2011, 11:52 AM)
But you know who is the Automatic Loser? Someone who refuses to take any calculated risk or action to change his life ....someone who fears this and that ..... someone who is content to keep all his money in FD and slog to make The Boss rich  rolleyes.gif 

But nvm, society is being divided into "the haves" and "the have nots", with the middle class being squeezed out. I'm determined to join "the haves" but if someone insists on remaining with "the have nots" in the name of moral superiority etc, it's his choice.
*
Well, you make it sound like everybody who takes a risk will automatically belong to the haves?

If everybody starts doing it, then you won't be the haves anymore would you.

I think the question, comes back to, whose money are you actually making from property speculation?
Answer: "Yours". Money transfers from hand to hand, names are replaced on mortgages, inflation goes up, but as a whole, no one really gets richer.


Added on January 10, 2011, 3:26 pmHere's an idea. Since property is a sure win investment. Why don't banks just buy up all this property themselves, then rent them to us? Rather than offer us a loan, and let us make the real profit.

This post has been edited by TheDoer: Jan 10 2011, 03:26 PM
teoanne
post Jan 10 2011, 03:36 PM

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nobody mentioned that property is a sure-win investment. you must do your homework and invest in the right property. right timing matters less if you have chosen the right property. a right property that has high demand can withstand any downturn. choosing the wrong property can have disastrous consequences. even speculators bear this risk. there is no point being bitter about the whole situation and waiting for property prices to fall, you could be waiting for a long time.
zuiko407
post Jan 10 2011, 03:48 PM

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property is not sure win investment but is a very good way to invest, the records from all around the world have proven that, the bank will not buy up all the properties as they're major in banking business but of course they invest into property as well, no one will buy all the properties because not every property is good buy, but there have investors who own major and investors who own minor of the properties in the country.
even Lee Kah Sing have not own all the properties in Hong Kong but he's a major owner.
CKHong
post Jan 10 2011, 04:05 PM

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Investor Group
- telling others to start investing on props.
- hope that it keeps BBB then they can get more players in and speculate with them and then earn more[when more players is in, then the props that they're holding got more % to let off and then buy again/stop buying when they know its at the peak]
- as teoanne said, right property that has high demand can withstand any downturn. Yes this is correct but don't think ALL players are so accurate + lucky to get the right props.

wait bubble crash Group
- telling others to wait for bubbles.
- hope that no more BBB then the investor/speculator [who's not cash rich] can't hold on any longer and then boom.

Clearly i'm in the wait bubble crash Group as the new props is TOO expensive for me. sad.gif
haih.. kinda hard to survive in bolehland.. salary increase sikit..
everything else increase alot.. prop so freaking expensive .. aha.. just tak tahan govn oni.. came here and express a lil bit......
been reading this thread for 2 month ++
cherroy
post Jan 10 2011, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Jan 10 2011, 04:05 PM)
Investor Group
- telling others to start investing on props.
- hope that it keeps BBB then they can get more players in and speculate with them and then earn more[when more players is in, then the props that they're holding got more % to let off and then buy again/stop buying when they know its at the peak]
- as teoanne said, right property that has high demand can withstand any downturn. Yes this is correct but don't think ALL players are so accurate + lucky to get the right props.

wait bubble crash Group
- telling others to wait for bubbles.
- hope that no more BBB then the investor/speculator [who's not cash rich] can't hold on any longer and then boom.

Clearly i'm in the wait bubble crash Group as the new props is TOO expensive for me.  sad.gif
haih.. kinda hard to survive in bolehland.. salary increase sikit..
everything else increase alot.. prop so freaking expensive .. aha.. just tak tahan govn oni.. came here and express a lil bit......
been reading this thread for 2 month ++
*
When I posted my view, I don't encourage or discourage people to buy or not to buy properties.

Just, sometimes, we always need to see thing from rather neutral perspective (although it is definitely cannot be total neutral), but at least opinion posted is based on what is happening out there and supported by facts and figure out there or what we know, it may be right or wrong, it doesn't matter, at least we see where the arguement come from, rather than post opinion just because belong to which camp.

The discussion part of story is the one lead to us to think, to analyse, to judge.
Any investment, there is no sure win, so does properties.
We don't need to agree on each other, but as long as healthy discussion is going on, it benefits to all only.

Frankly speaking and no offence, waiting and hoping properties price to crash, just because cannot afford to buy, or whatever reason, somehow, need to think deeper.

When properties market crash, it just mean economy will be doing badly, by that time, you would even fear about job security, if one is under employment one, or fear price fall even further and banks could tighten the loan as well. It could mean harder life when properties price crash time.
For those doing business one or self-employed, potential facing business slow, default issue as well.
So could ended forever wait.

I am not mean properties price is right or cheap right now, or will go up further. Just the part hoping and waiting properties price to crash in order for one to buy cheaply, somehow, not something a right mindset.
My view only.
Yes, properties price is high, if see it too high, not worth, then don't buy, as simple as that.
But it doesn't mean we hope it to crash either.
Just let the market behave themselves, you buy or sell based on your affordability, risk appetite and tolerance on it.
Can anticipate some fall, but hoping it to crash, is never a right attitude to start with.

My 2 cents.




CKHong
post Jan 10 2011, 05:25 PM

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cherroy > agreed on ur statement.. its not that i'll wait forever till it reli drop 70% ++
i'm just waiting for the properties to go down till its affordable for everyone else like me.. so maybe down by 20~25% will be good.. cus in just 2~3 years period.. the properties rise till more than 40%
its just crazy..
i wouldn't want the economy to crash..I agreed on "you would even fear about job security when the economy is bad"

If keeps on increasing.. i believe one day we'll walk the same path as japan/hk(few generation to buy 1 props).. unless govn reli can change bolehland to high income country.. which i dun think can achieve easily tongue.gif
cherroy
post Jan 10 2011, 05:36 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Jan 10 2011, 05:25 PM)
cherroy > agreed on ur statement.. its not that i'll wait forever till it reli drop 70% ++
i'm just waiting for the properties to go down till its affordable for everyone else like me..  so maybe down by 20~25% will be good.. cus in just 2~3 years period.. the properties rise till more than 40%
its just crazy..
i wouldn't want the economy to crash..I agreed on "you would even fear about job security when the economy is bad"

If keeps on increasing.. i believe one day we'll walk the same path as japan/hk(few generation to buy 1 props).. unless govn reli can change bolehland to high income country.. which i dun think can achieve easily  tongue.gif
*
Better spend more effort how to increase income, so that previous not afford one, become affordable.
Instead waiting, waiting, waiting properties price to fall so that become affordable. smile.gif

You never know it may go down or not.
As properties has 2 major front, one highly sort after, keep on increasing, and even for drop, only a little
Another one, totally nobody want, you don't want to have those either.

Even properties price goes down, it may go down from much higher level.
For eg. A Pg properties that was selling 500k 4-5 years ago, people said, wah so expensive, wait it to drop only buy.
Now is selling 700K, ya, it is very expensive, wait it to drop. But if it really did, drop 30%, it is back to 500K only, never cheaper than the origin "wait price" of 500K 5 years ago.

Or another properties sold at 500K, too high, wait.
Now it is not something location people looking after, little people want, now also selling 500k or 400K, make a right decision to wait.
But now, do you want it?
May be not anymore, so your 'wait' is right, but now you don't want already. tongue.gif




CKHong
post Jan 10 2011, 05:44 PM

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ok.. u r rite..
but still .. can't afford it.. T_T
tchtax
post Jan 10 2011, 08:03 PM

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I just want to say that how much would one expect properties, especially landed ones, to drop in the worst case scenario for our economy. Historically, I haven';t seen it dropping a lot (i've been through 2 major recessions). Another words, it holds up pretty well. I made a decision to buy 2 storey terrace (in a decent neighbourhood) about a year ago, after letting go my condo. It was based on the fact that I know my income increment every year will not catch up with the increment in landed property values. In addition, I know that renovation costs are going to increase substantially over a period of time and this was going to compound the problem of owning a landed property. In addition I wasn;t getting any younger. The longer I delayed owning a landed property, the harder for me to be able to afford paying that instalment.( Heck, I'm not going to stretch that loan till I;m 65. ) So for me , it was better to bite the bullet now than later.

And another thing, you want to try and own a property that doesn;t involve much travelling costs and you all know as well as I do, it only goes up and up, unless our govt comes up with some affordable transportation system. (I wouldn;t bet on that though).

This post has been edited by tchtax: Jan 10 2011, 08:09 PM
maxforce
post Jan 10 2011, 11:28 PM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Jan 10 2011, 10:07 AM)
May I quote from a book written by Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff.

The books title is THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT. Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

I will quote just one paragraph. THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT SYNDROME. The essence of this-time-is-different syndrome is different is simple. It is rooted in firmly held belief that financial crisis are things that happen to other people in other countries at other times; crises do not happen to us, here and now. We are doing things better , we are smarter, we have learned from from past mistakes. The old rules of valuation no longer apply. The current BOOM, unlike the many BOOMS that preceded catastrophic collapses in the past (even in our country) ,is built on sound fundamentals , structural reforms, technological innovation, and good policy. Or so the story goes.

There you have it. 8 centuries of the same old crap. Read the book and see what you think. Sounds like the same old FOOLS PARADISE.
*
Exactly my point.
Each time its different one... they say.
Whats not different is the stupidity of human nature cool2.gif
cranx
post Jan 11 2011, 01:09 AM

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for the average salaried worker. a property price crash will do more harm than good.
it could be difficult to get a loan, high interest rate and you might even lose your job.

it is only good if you have stock pile of cash, then it will be a carnival sales for cheap properties.
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 11 2011, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 10 2011, 04:46 PM)
When I posted my view, I don't encourage or discourage people to buy or not to buy properties.

Just, sometimes, we always need to see thing from rather neutral perspective (although it is definitely cannot be total neutral), but at least opinion posted is based on what is happening out there and supported by facts and figure out there or what we know, it may be right or wrong, it doesn't matter, at least we see where the arguement come from, rather than post opinion just because belong to which camp.

The discussion part of story is the one lead to us to think, to analyse, to judge.
Any investment, there is no sure win, so does properties.
We don't need to agree on each other, but as long as healthy discussion is going on, it benefits to all only.

Frankly speaking and no offence, waiting and hoping properties price to crash, just because cannot afford to buy, or whatever reason, somehow, need to think deeper.

When properties market crash, it just mean economy will be doing badly, by that time, you would even fear about job security, if one is under employment one, or fear price fall even further and banks could tighten the loan as well. It could mean harder life when properties price crash time.
For those doing business one or self-employed, potential facing business slow, default issue as well.
So could ended forever wait.

I am not mean properties price is right or cheap right now, or will go up further. Just the part hoping and waiting properties price to crash in order for one to buy cheaply, somehow, not something a right mindset.
My view only. 
Yes, properties price is high, if see it too high, not worth, then don't buy, as simple as that.
But it doesn't mean we hope it to crash either.
Just let the market behave themselves, you buy or sell based on your affordability, risk appetite and tolerance on it.
Can anticipate some fall, but hoping it to crash, is never a right attitude to start with.

My 2 cents.
*
Well said. I wonder why if one invest Bon, gold, commodity, stock market, less people complaint ha? rclxub.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2011, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 11 2011, 09:30 AM)
I wonder why if one invest Bon, gold, commodity, stock market, less people complaint ha? rclxub.gif
*
that's because these do not affect the daily lives of the masses.

the day people start to "invest" in, i.e. buy up and even hoard rice and cooking oil, you will not see complaints but riots!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 11 2011, 09:54 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 11 2011, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 11 2011, 09:52 AM)
that's because these do not affect the daily lives of the masses.

the day people start to "invest" in, i.e. buy up and even hoard rice and cooking oil, you will not see complaints but riots!
*
Correct also, but then I think the main culprit are those land owners, majority of the land are monopolized by big developers, these group make the most rclxms.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2011, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 11 2011, 10:06 AM)
Correct also, but then I think the main culprit are those land owners, majority of the land are monopolized by big developers, these group make the most rclxms.gif
*
think about it - who are the biggest sharks in this madness? land owners, directors, powered people in authorising bodies, privileged buying big chunks with discount or the little fella talking in this forum? tongue.gif
kochin
post Jan 11 2011, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 11 2011, 10:18 AM)
think about it - who are the biggest sharks in this madness? land owners, directors, powered people in authorising bodies, privileged buying big chunks with discount or the little fella talking in this forum? tongue.gif
*
sales agent! they have no risk and are just selling 'services'.
land owner got risk.
directors have risks.
authority also got risk.
buyers also got risk.
forummers also got risk except those NATO. thumbup.gif

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