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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 7 2011, 01:23 PM

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In Malaysia, Property has an unique role as hedge instrument against RM, I hv zero confident with our government ability to lift up our economy, 30 yrs back wat is the exchange rate against Sing $? Now? And 30 yrs fr now? if anything wrong like Zimbabwe, those who own clean real estate (without loan) are safe
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 11 2011, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 10 2011, 04:46 PM)
When I posted my view, I don't encourage or discourage people to buy or not to buy properties.

Just, sometimes, we always need to see thing from rather neutral perspective (although it is definitely cannot be total neutral), but at least opinion posted is based on what is happening out there and supported by facts and figure out there or what we know, it may be right or wrong, it doesn't matter, at least we see where the arguement come from, rather than post opinion just because belong to which camp.

The discussion part of story is the one lead to us to think, to analyse, to judge.
Any investment, there is no sure win, so does properties.
We don't need to agree on each other, but as long as healthy discussion is going on, it benefits to all only.

Frankly speaking and no offence, waiting and hoping properties price to crash, just because cannot afford to buy, or whatever reason, somehow, need to think deeper.

When properties market crash, it just mean economy will be doing badly, by that time, you would even fear about job security, if one is under employment one, or fear price fall even further and banks could tighten the loan as well. It could mean harder life when properties price crash time.
For those doing business one or self-employed, potential facing business slow, default issue as well.
So could ended forever wait.

I am not mean properties price is right or cheap right now, or will go up further. Just the part hoping and waiting properties price to crash in order for one to buy cheaply, somehow, not something a right mindset.
My view only. 
Yes, properties price is high, if see it too high, not worth, then don't buy, as simple as that.
But it doesn't mean we hope it to crash either.
Just let the market behave themselves, you buy or sell based on your affordability, risk appetite and tolerance on it.
Can anticipate some fall, but hoping it to crash, is never a right attitude to start with.

My 2 cents.
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Well said. I wonder why if one invest Bon, gold, commodity, stock market, less people complaint ha? rclxub.gif
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 11 2011, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 11 2011, 09:52 AM)
that's because these do not affect the daily lives of the masses.

the day people start to "invest" in, i.e. buy up and even hoard rice and cooking oil, you will not see complaints but riots!
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Correct also, but then I think the main culprit are those land owners, majority of the land are monopolized by big developers, these group make the most rclxms.gif
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post Jan 11 2011, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jan 11 2011, 10:42 AM)
sales agent! they have no risk and are just selling 'services'.
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Last year at least, one agent being killed, many being robbed, raped...many yrs back, in Balakong..

SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 11 2011, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(ken7908 @ Jan 11 2011, 03:33 PM)
wahahhaa, good one....the truth is the prop price kept increasing despite all the debates. still no one knows what is the direction, but yet the price is still on the rising trend in the early 2011 now dunno till when.

seems the Columbus phrase 'i come, i see, i conquer' makes sense in properties....if Columbus still alive, he could be making tons of $$$ these few years. haha rclxms.gif

perhaps the landed props still bullish due to demand in KV.........
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Majority high percentage Chinese area (>50%) for landed properties (regardless FH / LH) in KV are rising significantly, I foresee majority young Chinese generations will move to urban cities, Penang, KV and Singapore, these move forms a very strong demand for landed property in prime area, my father-in-law fr Tanah Merah Kelantan has 28 gr. sons & daughters, left 2 in hometown taking over family business, the rest are in KL, so far my Kelantan relatives has bought 5 properties for their next gen.

Always remember, we are not China, HK, America or Taiwan, a lot of property theory works in these countries but not M'sia, our country racist issue are quite tense
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 13 2011, 04:24 PM

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Let's study the historical data, the key factor to enter the Property market is "Interest Rate", if you have study the interest rate fr early 80' till now, then one shd know that we are in fact in the best position to buy real estate.

2011 is offers the second lowest (in M'sia history) in Avg lending rate, I dun see any impact that even the BLR is heading to 7.5% level, so long the ALR is maintaining at 6%, I will still invest property (of course good one), I hv gone through all these up & down cycle, those fr 1983 to 1998 are really called disaster!!

Buy when interest is lowest with moderate price, not highest interest with
lower price


Added on January 13, 2011, 4:25 pm
QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 13 2011, 04:24 PM)
Let's study the historical data, the key factor to enter the Property market is "Interest Rate", if you have study the interest rate fr early 80' till now, then one shd know that we are in fact in the best position to buy real estate.

2011 is offers the second lowest (in M'sia history) in Avg lending rate, I dun see any impact that even the BLR is heading to 7.5% level, so long the ALR is maintaining at 6%, I will still invest property (of course good one), I hv gone through all these up & down cycle, those fr 1983 to 1998 are really called disaster!!

Buy when interest is lowest with moderate price, not highest interest with
lower price
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This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 13 2011, 04:25 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 13 2011, 05:17 PM

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BLR vs Average Lending Rate


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SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 13 2011, 05:19 PM

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Sorry not very clear

Yellow line - BLR - 1980-2011
Blue line - Average Lending Rate - 1980-2011


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SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 17 2011, 03:40 PM

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QUOTE(Jason @ Jan 17 2011, 11:39 AM)
lol@2012

if property continue rising, nobody would be able to afford them.. and when nobody buys..prices have to normalize itself to be in line with the buying power..right..thats what i think anyway.

the funny thing is, land is NOT scarce in Malaysia[COLOR=red], we're not Hong Kong and Singapore. so what's the big hoohaa anyway.
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I totally dun agree with the statement, urbanization seems growing in accelerated speed everywhere, city's prime land in the whole world are scarce, there is no way back for land price to drop in prime area...looking at the upcoming high rise buildings in the pipeline (about 200 super tall buildings in Klang Valleys), landed property in KV will deem to be super super hot in future yawn.gif
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post Jan 18 2011, 12:24 AM

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Property is a rich man game, whoever has the strongest holding power will ultimately win, rich man BBB, many people think that rich man (investor) will suffer when market crash, then you could be wrong. Rich man buy even more when mkt crash, you wait & see....

Look at SARS in HK many yrs back, mkt really shaking coz of the incident, but when small fishes panic sold theirs apt, the big shark sapu all the cheap stock bersih bersih, the price drop 50% and rebound within 3 mths time back to normal..

Bubble is a very general statement, for me, it happen all the time, in 2002, low cost flat bubble, 2009, Mon't Kiara apt bubble, 2009, Puteri shoplot bubble, 2008 KLCC high end condos oversupply, I carry 1 thought, anytime there are certain sectors / areas bubble, anytime there are fruitful real estate to pick, investment has to go back to fundamental...homework homework , just my 2 cent cool2.gif
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post Jan 21 2011, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(Jason @ Jan 19 2011, 04:14 PM)
seller can demand whatever price they want, it doesn't reflect market price.
market price is not determined by asking prices.

valuer value lower does not mean it is the market price as well, but it is definitely a "safe" benchmark. if you pay at valuation price or below valuation price, consider it a fair trade or a good deal, if its above valuation price..then tread with caution...
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Well said. In the past 10 yrs, if you invest based on Valuer's suggestion, I would say it could be wrong, check Bangi, Kajang, Putrajaya, Shah Alam, Puchong, Valuer will always recognize the transacted price, 90% no pro. But how much have the properties in these area increase in value? Especially Fr 2000-2009, frankly I will seriously consider an area in which Valuer's under value it rather than those they recognize
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post Jan 22 2011, 12:57 AM

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Whether property up or down, mostly manipulated among investors, just like share market in 1995, everyone said too high, wait burst then go in, I remembered when Maybank dropped <Rm3 in 1998 (if not wrong), many worried bank close shop, also dared not to invest, guest who buy most? Rich man again...I foresee the property mkt crash when China stock mkt crisis, I bet those who are waiting property price to drop also dare not to buy by then, many excuses, end up rich man buy buy buy again...
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post Jan 22 2011, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(bluesfingers @ Jan 22 2011, 03:48 AM)
hi UFO, I utterly agreed and like your idea. Indeed, i have the same thinking and comparison of the present property market with share market. I always look at the property market is a slower, more troublesome and less flexibity version of sharemarket. If we bought a wrong/bad share, we can just cut loss by a phone call or press one button "sell". On the other hand if you bought a wrong property!  rclxub.gif need not to explain further. Of course someone will say property is something physical and touchable and we won't lost untill 0. This is the biggest benefit of property investment.
Pondering at the current property market, lot new properties launch, price surges like 20%-50% on every new phase, peoples still jostling for it.
Any investment must have up and down time like a parabolic, for equity market it may have few parabolic a year whereas for property market should be the same but at a much slower or longer parabolic. Real Investor/ fund manager know when to cash their profit. Do you know when? unsure.gif
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In general, foreign investors feel that Malaysia property is cheap, investing property is less risky than stock mkt in Malaysia, we must face the fact that we dun hv Gd government like S'pore, Japan Taiwan or even China, dun expect g'ment can develope rural area anymore, only Penang & KL got hope, for me if keep 300K in RM cash is much much more risky than keep gold or real estate, property in M'sia serve special role to hedge against RM depreciation, if you invest share or insurance, end up you get back RM, I dun know the 100K cash I receive fr Insurance policy by yr 2040 can buy a small Perodua or not?
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 22 2011, 06:32 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 22 2011, 05:38 PM)
wow 2040! I hope Proton and Perodua will not be around anymore.
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Ya I hope Proton close shop today
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post Jan 23 2011, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(ahchaikia @ Jan 23 2011, 03:57 AM)
IZ A CRAZY f***ING LIFE NOWADAYS!
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It is just the beginning, the real heat is on the way, I just came back fr Taiwan, their apt car park itself is priced 100K - 300K alone. we are experiencing the slowest price hike among developing Asian countries, we will reach a situation where 1 family kongsi buy 1 hse, individual can afford to rent hse only, Urbanization....
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post Jan 24 2011, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(teoanne @ Jan 24 2011, 12:58 PM)
although i'd really hesitate to call Azizi Ali an expert in properties. A 6 million net worth is really nothing compared to some other property gurus or investors out there. Some of his investment choices have also been poor, and returns are poor. He's more a jack of all trades kinda guy.
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quite true, the real shark normally very low profile, Azizi Ali and Tai Kor Pai is just ikan bilis, however for beginner, Pai teaching is more practical in Malaysia, if we refer foreign property investment book, we will die faster, Malaysia is too complicated, lousy govenment, lousy policy and many lousy developers still around screw up the property market rclxub.gif
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post Jan 24 2011, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Jan 24 2011, 02:18 PM)
Azizi started in 1995 whereas Pai kor started only in 2005 ... so who d champ  rclxms.gif 
But one thing about Azizi, as full time pilot, wonder how he managed his business, seminars, books etc. Cant possible flying the plane while writing books and preparing seminars. This one we really need to learn.  thumbup.gif rclxms.gif
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1st lesson, become a pilot 1st...
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 28 2011, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Jan 28 2011, 11:41 AM)
This is a crazy suggestion, our property not reach that level like Japan or Hong Kong, price 15x-30x much more lower.

With this kind of property price, already go for 2nd generation home loan, if 10 year later economic boom up as Hong Kong, u think how many generation home loan to be taken???

I only know that if Wawasan 2020 really can reach at 2020, there is 4 group of people still can live in KV.
a)  Political
b)  Rich family
c)  Foreigners
d)  High income group (RM30k/mth and above)

10k-30k/mth group will start move out from KV to outside KV.
5k-10k/mth group will move to next develop city like Ipoh, Alor Setar...and so on.
3k-5k/mth group will move to kampung... 
500-3k/mth group.......dun know where they needed to move.... laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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nolah, only the politicians and monkeys around by then, which means it is a gd sign, back to the old jungle days, property price will drop, will drop
rclxms.gif
SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 1 2011, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Feb 1 2011, 01:03 PM)
It is not every property price escalating like no tomorrow.

There are still properties the remain roughly the same pricing even  after 15 years, especially those non-prime area.

There are even some properties nobody interested to buy or rent even after 15 years.
Drive around some non-prime area, or smaller town, there are some shoplots that cost 300-400K 10 years ago, now growing grass only, even trees...  tongue.gif
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As I said earlier, property was bubbled since 1995, last year bubble, now bubble, tomorrow also the same, it just happen for different sector, specific area or specific time, for instance, low cost flat was bubbled in 2004, KLCC condo bubble in 2008, Bdr Puteri shoplot bubble 2009, Mon't Kiara bubble 2010, Kajang factories over supply in 2007, but now become hotter and hotter, what I mean is today you see Setia Eco Park good, 3 years later may be bubble, then it will come back 10 the years become hot, it could due to change in government policies, new highway etc.

Look at Bandar Kinrara, 1991-1993, not many people want, 1996-1997 boomed, 2000-2004 bubble, 2004-2009 stable, 2010 selling like hot hot cakes, it is up and down, as an investor, need to monitor closely the change in demographic, policies, new amenities, new project like LRT or MRT does play very important factor, invest in property must be "Smart and Fast", if too careful and not doing home work could hv miss the golden opportunities

If you ask me, our prime area property price is relatively cheap!!
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post Feb 1 2011, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(blasto @ Feb 1 2011, 03:32 PM)
rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
Great comments, Bravo. By reading this it sum it all.
This is what I have been waiting for.
thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif

btw. i have some properties need your advise, are you willing to help.
let me know bro. thx
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m nobody, but let's discuss. share share info bolehlah

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