been there.. done that.. thank you ma'am..

i like the opinion above..!

you must be willing to learn through the pain..!

Yes.. the pain of losing your own hard earned money.. to other more smarter than you..

consider that as a tuition fees.

after all this journey.., I'm still a learner.. ! win a bit... loss a little..
in stock market, you can't avoid losses at all time., even warren buffet have made wrong decision during the market crash last year.., but.. ah, stop talking about that guy lah., he can afford to make a lot's of mistake.

but until you make more winning than losses.., then like sulifeisgreat wrote up there., you're in-sync with the market.

I have sold all my Gpacket.. then my TA show's me.. it moving into different direction.

why still holding? doing hope analysis eh?

For those who still holding.. well all I can say - good luck to you gentleman. Pray and hope..this counter would spring back to life in a few weeks time. I will be waiting.. when i saw the candle turn white.., and the trend come back.., i will be back..

hasta la vista for now gpacket. you give me good money this time around..

Good move..

How'd you manage to find such a gem before the run-up? Care to share?

i presume you both have similar investing capability morpheuzneo & wirelessdude, to lock in & exit this share
yes, managing our losses is important, because profit tends to take care of themselves, but losses never do
we guys are able to show that TA still have a role in trading, no matter the different markets, that profit is attainable
because, the binding theme for all markets is human participation & their inseparable emotions (ie. greed, hope & fear)

i love trading shares based on assumed trading behaviour - as it works for me
my long time horizon is normally for etf (exchange traded funds)
for me, during the early years, i encounter lots of setback & all those around me told me to give up & i did thought of surrendering
but, funny, luck always came in to play a role & showed me to look at things from a different perspective
so i believe, they go hand in hand together. no doubt we can make lots of monies with our capabilities, but in the end, when the time comes, we are all going to leave earth and ...that, is my perception of luck

one poster mention 'for the majority who do not make much money from share market over say a 10-year time frame, the share market ought to have made them better decision makers and personalities knowing how to let go and be humble.'
From my experience, those who never made much money, surrender after only a few years & they rather let the unit trust manage for them. Thus, i have no idea what type of investor can tahan, say up to 10 years, perhaps they are the FA / forever fans category? do let us know
imo, would be nice, if the poster share more of his stock picks for us to view it in a neutral manner. say, should we be buying, holding or exiting in current market & for which shares in klse? tq

if it is true that, ultimately, 3 things are most important: Net asset backing vis-a-vis market price; business model and industry; managment capability.
then why does the below share languish? isn't it found in the equipment we are using to read this thread? & its also found in almost everybody computer? any information why the 3 ultimate important things does not propel this share higher? i would like to learn new things
perhaps its invested to give the cucu & not the investor himself? wonder why? oh well... my guess is everyone got different objective





noted, that some said they sold too early. well, a profit is way much better than a loss
here's an article to read, for trying to ride it as long as possible (but klse not a normal market... haha)
remember, theory does not equal practice & application of practice is not as easy as it seems

Most investors are driven by emotion. That would explain why KNM fell so low.

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Added on November 19, 2009, 10:30 pmIMHO, there are other equally important criterias as well: EPS growth rate, D/E, ROE, DY, P/E etc.

This post has been edited by DanielW: Nov 19 2009, 10:30 PM

GPacket-wa holders these few days surely feel as though it was KNM a few months ago.

going up again ...another push up to ?

going up subject to short-term only?

GPacket 1.00 - 1.15 ideal rite ?

Doing fundamental analysis or forecast on this counter is not difficult. For those who buy in big time, dont skip the homework. After you have done the homework, a reasonable range of fair value for now will be clear.

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Added on November 22, 2009, 4:46 pmOne forummer said technical analysis helps spot the behaviour and pattern of insider trading. I think that is a good answer but perhaps the only good-sounding reason for using TA.

This post has been edited by CKC (Sense-Maker): Nov 22 2009, 04:46 PM

THE share price for Green Packet (RM1.11) has done well in recent months, although it has given back some gains after surging to a year-high of RM1.68 earlier this month.

Green Packet reported net loss totalling RM31.8 million in its latest earnings results for the third quarter of 2009 (3QFYDec09) — and is expected to remain in the red for the next few quarters. However, we are sanguine that increased coverage and subscribers will gradually pare losses for the company's WiMAX broadband business, housed under P1.

The turnaround — likely in the second half of 2010 (2H10) — is expected to be catalyst for another upward rerating for the stock. We estimate the company will return to the black in 2010, with net profit of RM24.4 million following losses totalling RM111.9 million this year.

Earnings are expected to grow strongly thereafter on the back of increasing economies of scale once subscriber numbers move beyond critical mass. Hence, we believe there remains good upside potential for the stock over the longer term.

Losses as P1 accelerates rollout
Green Packet's losses in 3Q09 widened to RM31.8 million, up from RM27.9 million in 2Q09 and RM10.3 million in the previous corresponding quarter.

This was due to high startup costs — such as marketing and promotional expenses, subscriber acquisition cost and depreciation costs — for its broadband business. P1's subscriber base increased by about 36,000 to 96,000 at end-September 2009, still well short of the estimate of 250,000 subscribers needed to achieve operating breakeven.

Although P1's subscriber base is still off its year-end target of 200,000, the company has done admirably in winning market share in the fixed broadband segment. Telekom Malaysia with its wide nationwide coverage only managed to add about 28,000 fixed broadband subscribers (residential and business) in 3Q09 for its Streamyx unit.

Product and solution and communication arms profitable
Green Packet's other business units, the product and solution and communication and voice, turned in small profits in 3Q09.

The product and solution arm made earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) totalling RM2 million — underpinned by increasing sales of WiMAX CPE (customer premise equipment), on the back of more network rollouts globally, as well as revenue from several software projects. Green Packet currently ranks 3rd in terms of global sales of WiMAX CPE devices, behind Motorola and Samsung.

The communication and voice arm generated turnover totalling RM13.5 million in the last quarter. The international wholesale voice services unit, based in Singapore, in particular, is faring well. But earnings were hurt by startup costs for its discounted telephony business in Thailand and MVNO (mobile virtual network operator) projects. The business reported Ebit of RM300,000 million in 3Q09.

Building earnings base on fixed broadband
The broadband business will be the key driver for growth for the foreseeable future.

Green Packet has been busy over the past few months. In addition to widening its coverage area and marketing blitz, the company received approval to operate in East Malaysia as well as acquired spectrum to deploy wireless broadband services in Singapore.

P1 has redoubled its marketing efforts in recent weeks, following slower-than-expected takeup rate in 3Q09, in order to meet — or least close the gap to — its target of 200,000 subscribers by end-2009.

Its "Cut now!" campaign was expanded to include the company's first advertisements on television and radio, in addition to the more traditional print media and billboards.

Anecdotal evidence is positive. About one-third of its new subscribers acquired in the last quarter were those switching from other service providers. The campaign has generated a lot of publicity, raised P1's visibility and announced its intentions to be a key player in the broadband market.

Further growth booster from mobile broadband
The government's decision to provide a tax relief on broadband subscription fee of up to RM500 for 2010-2012 should help improve penetration rate in the country.

However, as mentioned above, takeup rate for fixed broadband has slowed, likely cannibalised by increasing user preference for mobile broadband. Current trends suggest that the latter will be the faster growing segment of the market for the foreseeable future.

Demand for mobile broadband will be underpinned by the long list of new launches for devices such as smart phones and netbooks as well as users' increasing need to be connected at anytime and everywhere.

There were an estimated 1.43 million and 0.72 million fixed and mobile broadband subscribers, respectively at end-1H09. Industry observers indicate that new subscribers for mobile broadband could easily double that for fixed broadband in absolute numbers next year.

Widening coverage will strengthen P1's position
Currently, the mobile broadband segment is dominated by the telcos, with services provided via their 2.5G/3G platforms.

Although P1's nomadic broadband cannot yet offer ubiquitous mobile broadband services, WiMAX has a much larger capacity and up to 10 times the speed of 2.5G/3G platforms. With a wider coverage, WiMAX can provide a competitive alternative, especially within the cities.

In this respect, P1 has stepped up its network rollout. It is the only WiMAX operator to have achieved the targets specified by the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) under the licence agreements. Earlier last month, the regulator imposed fines on the other three licensees for failing to achieve their coverage targets.

P1 currently has about 600 sites and expects to hit 700-800 sites by end-2009, covering over 35% of our population. It plans to spend another RM155 million by mid-2010 to extend its coverage to 45% of the population. By 2012, P1 intends to achieve 65% population coverage.

Widening coverage will boost the company's push into the mobile broadband market segment, as is the imminent launch of WiMAX-embedded laptops and netbooks. For instance, the strategic tie-up with Intel Corp will offer P1 as the default broadband service operator in all future WiMAX-enabled laptops using the Intel chipset.

Upsell range of products via bundling
With its range of products, P1 is able to bundle fixed and nomadic broadband services for users. For instance, the company recently launched another promotion package to spearhead its foray into the mobile broadband segment.

The package, a followup to its earlier "Cut now!" promotion, offers a free modem for nomadic broadband services (the W1GGY) — that comes with a 4GB prepaid pass and 30-day validity -— to subscribers of any of its existing fixed broadband packages. Subscribers can purchase additional prepaid passes valued at RM20 (500MB or 15 days validity) and RM50 (2GB or 30 days).

In addition, the company plans to extend fixed voice services to customers by 1H2010. The business, currently dominated by Telekom Malaysia, is another potential revenue generator.

Expanding footprint in the region
P1's plans to expand its footprint into East Malaysia and the region (in at least three other markets) will give it a strategic advantage. For instance, once its network is deployed in Singapore, the company can offer broadband roaming services to customers frequenting the two countries.

The company plans to start network rollout in East Malaysia — in big cities like Kota Kinabalu, Miri, Tawau, Bintulu, Sandakan and Kuching — in 1Q10. If all goes to plan, it could launch services by 2H10.

Green Packet believes the market in East Malaysia has big potential with broadband penetration rates still low at about 13.6% in Sarawak and 9.5% in Sabah. Despite the vastness of the two states, their population is relatively concentrated within major cities, which will ease deployment.

To be sure, competition is expected to intensify between the key operators. In addition to Celcom, Maxis and DiGi, the YTL group is slated to launch its WiMAX broadband services nationwide in 2010.

But we believe Green Packet has the expertise and experience to win a fair share of this rapid growing market. We estimate its subscriber base to reach 180,000 by end-2009 and 500,000 by 2010.

Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

wow 500,000 by 2010 ... realli optimistic .....

Who are they kidding. They can't even achieve 200,000 by this year end with all the advertisement and promotions, and they expect to more than double that next year?

My view
Way/overly optimistic for 500,000 at the end of 2010. Streamyx on its maiden launch of streamyx takes years before reaching this figure which at that time without any broadband competition at all.

Not said not achievable, but 500K means 1/3 od BB users are using it.

First 100k and 200K will be fast to achieve but once reaching about 300k, growth rate might drop down quite fast, as those eager to have it (mostly unhappy users), already sign up, while some may happy to stay on whatever they have right now. After all, the Wimax subcription is not cheaper than other BB.

As next year, probably YTLe will launch another 'potong' campaign on its own, not to mention with potential HSBB impact, plus recent streamyx free/cheap upgrade package which tie up customer for 2 years (to prevent potong).

Its quite the norm for the company to be overly optimistic and be all rainbows and unicorns but that article posted by neo is from asia sentinel - so 'some' analysts also trying to promo this counter....

Gpacket pushing out new Internet protocol-based surveillance system.


This post has been edited by zzzz52: Nov 27 2009, 01:09 PM

This thing in his hand looks like a cyrstal ball; and it is dark. To me, it is not so new a product and will not help much in biz performance of Gpacket.

I wonder what's up with greenpacket today. Its been shooting up today.

up up and away!!!

Potong go go go !!!!!
HAHA!!!