QUOTE(cherroy @ May 11 2008, 12:52 AM)
I understand your point, as I had experience the heaven and hell in the market several times already, including the 1993 super bull run and crisis in 1997.
But the later part (bolded) of your statement can mislead a lot of newbie in investment. Don't get me wrong, I understand what you are trying to say, just point out, just in case for those new, young or inexperienced investors have wrong mindset after reading the statement.
It is very slim chance to loss in stock market also with good fundamental stock (but KLSE lack of this kind of stock, only a few, nvm, this is another story). But if one is buying at peak or near the peak, then all hard work being cut significantly.
The important point what I wish to highlight to remind newly in investment people is that:
If 5 years time, any investment (in this case of discussion UT, can be whatever investment tools) doesn't loss money, then it is a very poor performance, instead even if UT generates (3.7 FD x5) 18.5% return rate in this 5 years is considered a failure already. As one takes high risk which ended the return rate as same with something (FD) that has significant lower risk.
Also bare in mind, not all UT or stocks can lead one to no loss situation if one is buying at peak or near the peak. Classic example would be Nikkei 225. If there is an ETF or UT that primary target investment in Nikkei, then after 20 years, one still nursing a loss of more than 30-40%, while putting in FD already seeing your money become 2x or even more. Nasdaq is also a good example, after 8 year still not recover, only half of the peak until now.
So any investment come with different risk, so it is important for one to aware of it. Not just said, hey, this investment high probably won't lose one, then we don't care others factors and straight way invest into it.
The statement of 'one has slim chance to lose money in UT for 5 years period, is more like to convince people to buy UT', rather than explain properly the risk and information regarding UT. Instead if someone come out with this kind of statement or prediction, with the point I made up earlier, then one might lose interest in it rather than wanting it. No offence.
Anyway, it is public fault also which thinking much further, that's why a lot of capital guaranteed funds are selling quite easily, because of the word 'captial guaranteed' that lure a lot of investors. Don't get me wrong, it is perfect correct, just investors need to know how to interpret it.
As I pointed out, as investors we wish the UT (whatever investment) to earn a potential return rate that more than 18.5% in this 5 years or more accurate provide something the return rate better than FD or bonds then only the worth of taking the risk is more justified. If something turns wrong, then ok, we bare the risk.
Sorry no offence. Don't get me wrong, UT is and can be a good investment alternative. Just remind how to assess the risk and reward ratio that one always need to aware of.
Cheers.

Cherroy,
No worry, I won't get offended. Afterall, the purpose of the forum is for us to share and learn from one another.
For all type of investments, we have to first understand that it comes with risk. NO risk no return, the higher the risk the higher the return. UT is in low risk average return catagory (well, this is not from me, is certifed by most articles)
When we choose our UT funds, we have to look at the overall UTC performance. Of course past performance is not a form of guaranteed for future performance, but it is the next best indication. The next most important guideline would be the UTC's performance consistency. P. Mutual doesn't earn her name through just advertisement, she earns her goodwill through her consistent fund performance.
Perhaps my statement of slim chance in losing money in 5 years is rather subjective. I am, however, derive the statement based on the fund past performance vs FD and EPF returns. Nonetheless, I can't emphasis enough, all investment comes with risk. Even bond is not risk free. Well, we have FD which is risk free and hence provide you with no return, or i would say -ve return in view of a higher inflation rate vs your FD rate.
I am always keen to share my point of view of UT investment. Of course I understand that words from UT agents are often found skeptical. For those whom interested to invest in UT, I encourage them to go online to find articles about UT investment. Listen to friends is helpful, but if the friends are not well verse in UT investment, he/she might not also give u an objective review especially those who loss their money due to wrong investment technique/advice.
I am now into property investment, what i did was, instead of just listen to friends and agents (which of course another source of infor), I read books, which is the source that you can receive objective view.
Really there is no the right answer. If we understand the concept of money value, we have to look for ways to at least protect the value of our hardearned money. If we think our inflation rate is as low as 5%, we have to look for an investment channel to try to at least earn us 5% return pa, just to protect the purchasing power. This concept was surpriseingly well understood by our grandparents, or even great-grandparents. That's why they used to buy gold for the same reason. But I suppose due to the complexity of the investment products offered in the market, and the aggressiveless of the agents, have somehow confuses the consumers and blinded them from the very basis fundamental need of investment. Again, this is purely my personal point of view.