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News Ukraine army launches large assault on SE Ukraine, Probable probing attack on Russian lines

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kiasunkiasi
post Jul 5 2023, 08:58 AM

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QUOTE(MilitaryMadness @ Jul 4 2023, 08:35 PM)
Wait, are you seriously trying to wage a war of attrition with Russia of all countries?

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kesian those Ukrainians die in vain for their Western-controlled-puppet clown leader

This post has been edited by kiasunkiasi: Jul 5 2023, 09:08 AM
TSMilitaryMadness
post Jul 5 2023, 10:27 AM

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Ukrainian officer tries a pep talk to his men before an attack on Russian positions


TSMilitaryMadness
post Jul 5 2023, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(kiasunkiasi @ Jul 5 2023, 08:58 AM)
kesian those Ukrainians die in vain for their Western-controlled-puppet clown leader
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How to say "we are not advancing" without actually saying it
TSMilitaryMadness
post Jul 5 2023, 11:44 AM

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What are they doing clumped up like that?


Etude8891
post Jul 5 2023, 11:45 AM

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So Ukraine how many soldiers left?
chaosneo
post Jul 5 2023, 12:16 PM

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actually can you point out where did he say they will stop the offensive to run interdiction operation? 🤔

also i would like to disagree on the point that one can pause an offensive operation during for interdiction operation in any warfare as:
1. offensive need fuel & ammo to be resupplied.
2. rotation of troops.
3. there may be benefits for attackers to let defenders repopulate a defensive position that has been mark for strikes/artillery.
4. defenders who feel the pause from attackers will be attempting to resupply which reveals supply depots and munition dumps.



QUOTE(MilitaryMadness @ Jul 5 2023, 06:09 AM)
You do interdiction operations while you run an offensive, you don't stop an offensive just for the sake of running an interdiction operation. Because then you are only running an interdiction operation.

Aiya if cannot advance anymore in their own big offensive just say so lohh....

No need to be shy

laugh.gif
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chaosneo
post Jul 5 2023, 12:18 PM

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ISW assessment seem to be in agreement.


Etude8891
post Jul 5 2023, 12:20 PM

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So Ukraine more soldiers than Russians now until can play attrition war of who die faster?
chaosneo
post Jul 5 2023, 12:26 PM

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if UA use it to stop ATGM and attack helicopter missiles, then it is a cope cage.
but i have mention before i think this kind of cage will work on quad copters bombers and FPV drones.

the cope cage term came when russians uses these cage to stop dual tandem warhead from javelin and NLAW which does not work.


QUOTE(MilitaryMadness @ Jul 5 2023, 06:07 AM)
When Russian do this all pro-Ukrainian dudes gleefully screamed 'cope cage!"

lol
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please read ISW assessment above and yes as reported last year and this year, Ukraine has possibly more troops and can draft even more if needed as they are defending their homeland with the base population.

unless russia wants to also emulate and utilize a large mobilization or draft for invasion, then it be hard to compete in same number of troops. being on home ground has its advantage.


QUOTE(Etude8891 @ Jul 5 2023, 12:20 PM)
So Ukraine more soldiers than Russians now until can play attrition war of who die faster?
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Etude8891
post Jul 5 2023, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(chaosneo @ Jul 5 2023, 12:26 PM)
if UA use it to stop ATGM and attack helicopter missiles, then it is a cope cage.
but i have mention before i think this kind of cage will work on quad copters bombers and FPV drones.

the cope cage term came when russians uses these cage to stop dual tandem warhead from javelin and NLAW which does not work.
please read ISW assessment above and yes as reported last year and this year, Ukraine has possibly more troops and can draft even more if needed as they are defending their homeland with the base population.

unless russia wants to also emulate and utilize a large mobilization or draft for invasion, then it be hard to compete in same number of troops. being on home ground has its advantage.
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Idk man your perspective sounds always so senget to Ukraine being better and victorious, hard to take your word regarding this.

Where the extra sign ups come from? Male Ukranian refugees everywhere all decided to return Ukraine to get drafted willingly?

This post has been edited by Etude8891: Jul 5 2023, 12:33 PM
chaosneo
post Jul 5 2023, 12:37 PM

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none of us has real specifics of data so all is just speculation.
do i want a quick Ukrainian counter offensive like Kharkiv? yes i do.

but is it... feasible?
sadly no. rushing tanks and soldiers across kilometers upon kilometers of mines, barb wire, trenches, and who know what else with lancet and incoming artillery fire...
is a very world war 1 style kind of warfare.

do i think Ukrainian is taking loss in this counter offensive? Definitely. there is no god mode like how US attack Iraq army here, this is a pure peer to peer level warfare.

i also think russia has tons of stockpiles, the problem is more likely getting that munition stockpile to the frontlines safely.

ps. i do support the Ukrainian but if they have losses or lost a battle or ground, i will say no and not cherry pick at information. if it is a bad idea from Ukrainian army from my perspective, i will say so too.


QUOTE(Etude8891 @ Jul 5 2023, 12:32 PM)
Idk man your perspective sounds always so senget to Ukraine being better and victorious, hard to take your word regarding this.
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ycs
post Jul 5 2023, 12:38 PM

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chaosneo
post Jul 5 2023, 12:41 PM

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lets face it, no government will not let the option to draft soldiers from its population regardless of gender to defend its country or sovereignty.
this has proven so during WW1 and WW2 as well as countless other conflicts.

based on last year report, out of 40 million Ukrainian population, 7-9 million became refugees and majority are women.
and latest report at least a few million came back to assist. based on general data, Ukraine can at least muster 10 million men to defend if needed.

of course this will come at a cost of lives, economic fallout, day to day operations.


edit:
okay Wiki put a lesser number to my optimistic guess. about 6 million fit for military service, even lets say 50% run off, there is still a big number.

Ukraine
Military age :18[6]
Conscription :12–18 months (depending on branches)
Available for military service :11,149,646, age 16–49 (2015)
Fit for military service :6,970,035, age 16–49 (2015)
Reaching military age annually :470,406 (2021)
Active personnel :~700,000 (2022)[7][8]
Reserve personnel : 1,000,000 (2022)

QUOTE(Etude8891 @ Jul 5 2023, 12:32 PM)
Where the extra sign ups come from? Male Ukranian refugees everywhere all decided to return Ukraine to get drafted willingly?
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This post has been edited by chaosneo: Jul 5 2023, 12:53 PM
TSMilitaryMadness
post Jul 5 2023, 12:55 PM

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According to posts here, suddenly the oft-quoted 'attackers can expect 3x more casualties compared to defenders' suddenly won't apply here, all damage and attrition will exclusively be on Russia (the defender) and not Ukraine (the attacker).
ycs
post Jul 5 2023, 12:57 PM

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chaosneo
post Jul 5 2023, 12:59 PM

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you are still right, generally attackers suffered 3x the casualties and who can say it is not happening? no one has the actual data.

but one have to factor in soldiers training, equipment, first aid capacity that is equally same on both attacker and defender.
right now i am seeing this skew to one sided in terms of training, equipment, intel, first aid knowledge, morale, and etc.



QUOTE(MilitaryMadness @ Jul 5 2023, 12:55 PM)
According to posts here, suddenly the oft-quoted 'attackers can expect 3x more casualties compared to defenders' suddenly won't apply here, all damage and attrition will exclusively be on Russia (the defender) and not Ukraine (the attacker).
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TSMilitaryMadness
post Jul 5 2023, 12:59 PM

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Ukraine seems confident (or foolish) to wage a war of attrition with a lower population and donated ammo & equipment, as an attacker against a heavily entrenched and defensive enemy no less.

And wtf is 'Assymetrical attrition gradient'?

TSMilitaryMadness
post Jul 5 2023, 01:06 PM

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chaosneo dude really advocating 'To the last Ukrainian' quite literally


chaosneo
post Jul 5 2023, 01:10 PM

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i have no idea. i assume it is a combination of strategy across a broad spectrum.
we shall we see if coming weeks if the decision for counter offensive is foolish or not. right now it is still developing and at the rate they decided to do it, it looks like it may be months before we see anything big.

this is from ISW pdf report:
QUOTE
Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov reported on July 4 that Ukrainian forces are performing their main task of destroying Russian manpower, equipment, fuel depots, artillery, and air defenses and that a “war of destruction is equal to a war of kilometers.”[1] Danilov’s assessment underlines the prioritization of Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to attrit Russian manpower and assets over attempting to conduct massive sweeping mechanized maneuvers to regain large swaths of territory rapidly. NATO Military Committee Chair Admiral Bob Bauer reported on July 3 that Ukrainian forces are correct to proceed cautiously and avoid high casualties in the counteroffensive and acknowledged that the counteroffensive is difficult due to landmines and other obstacles up to 30km deep into Russian-occupied territory.[2] Bauer stated that Ukrainian forces should not face criticism or pressure for moving slowly.
it make sense that no generals would send big armies across a heavily defended and mine position without wanted to remove/lessen the main component that enable the heavy defense fortifications.

like siege medieval where invading army would first try to:
- torn down as much castle walls with trebuchet
- send burning rocks to cause fire inside,
- limit supply access to the castle

while Ukraine russia war is on a bigger scale, the underlying concept seems the same:
- bombard defensive structures and lower manpower
- bomb munition and fuel depot
- interdict supply convoy


QUOTE(MilitaryMadness @ Jul 5 2023, 12:59 PM)
Ukraine seems confident (or foolish) to wage a war of attrition with a lower population and donated ammo & equipment, as an attacker against a heavily entrenched and defensive enemy no less.

And wtf is 'Assymetrical attrition gradient'?
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bengm2019
post Jul 5 2023, 01:12 PM

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QUOTE(MilitaryMadness @ Jul 5 2023, 10:38 AM)
How to say "we are not advancing" without actually saying it
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They are advancing.... So, it's not too bad... Of course lots of losses for every inch of land taken back... I assume they have everything they need to and will fight to the last men.

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