actually RuAF is not useless.
it just that both sides have layered air defense that is too risky for any aircraft to do ground support role.

i had hope the counter offensive has started but i doubt that it is, more like localized probing force.

we are talking about 9 bridages, prizgoshin said 72,000 soldiers.

edit: i assumed that we are talking about russia air force

This post has been edited by chaosneo: Jun 5 2023, 05:03 PM

i wonder how the russian military command is going to react if the flow of information is really bloating all the way to the top...

like what a probing force end up being confuse as a battalion level strike force, hence reinforcement is immediately deploy to there.

yes it can but it be costly, military aircrafts are costly and take time to make, training capable pilots for it is a whole level of complications.

i think we can agree that on both sides, CAS is now relegated to drones units, cheaper, not much danger to operators, and easily replaced.

lol don't look down on those...
they have been used extensively on both sides to a great degree of effectiveness.

this i agree.
a high ranking commander should not go near the front lines especially when your enemy has better intel than you.

the town Neckushne is the one that the MRAP is heading to?
most likely recovered if what the russian telegram channels saying is true about capture of the town.

i wonder what is the actual losses?

there is a lot if happenings across the frontline.
most of the reports are coming from russian telegram channels. almost all sections of the frontlines are active.

we can probably expect this week will be the most eventful.

there is some discussion that this is done by russian side.

Ukraine lacks amphibious ability to transport large troops across the river without getting blown and shot at.

any.large scale offensive will be likely through land and this incident will make the land area available even more narrow to reach Crimea.

but could be due to mismanagement and damage from last year explosion.
the damn was reported to be very full at the time of breaking and locals so far did not report any explosion or loud sound.




This post has been edited by chaosneo: Jun 6 2023, 02:51 PM

this is just me but i think the ability to disrupt, slow down, affect Ukrainian counter offensive, especially towards Crimea, take precedence over trenches, dragon teeth, and especially lack of manpower to defend them.

plus having less lands to defend means it will be more consolidated than having a bigger frontline.

this is just my logic, i could be wrong and maybe the Ukrainians did have a lot of means to cross river.

just to add Crimea use to have no water from canals until Feb 2022 so not so critical.

i am surprised no video of the dam at the point of breaking comes out, usually these videos are very quickly posted.

even before the dam exploded it be unlikely as Ukrainian have no able to shown they are capable of large river crossing operations.

and if send trickle of troops across at one time, it probably be a suicide mission.

edit.
but i think this dam flooding is a bane to both sides.

This post has been edited by chaosneo: Jun 6 2023, 03:37 PM

Forbes has an article also mention no where the main force is seen, so far majority of the battles conducted across all the frontlines are IFV and/or 1 or 2 tanks.

as if waiting and prodding for a breach.

edit
i wonder where is the main force. you cannot really hide tons of tanks and vehicles from satellite 🛰️

This post has been edited by chaosneo: Jun 8 2023, 08:43 AM

you guys make your own conclusion.

This post has been edited by chaosneo: Jun 8 2023, 08:46 AM

in my humble opinion,

65% land grab
- resources rich regions.
- bring back glory of soviet era.

15% NATO deterrent (failed badly as how Finland is now next door NATO)
- buffer states between russia and NATO. as russia has been invaded many times through history.
- creating a vassal state in Ukraine like belarus.

15% secure land bridge for Crimea.
- also securing the entire northern area of black sea.
- security for the naval port Sevastopol.

1% denazification
1% defending russian natives outside of russia (LRP/DPR)
1% defending russian language
1% chemical weapons
1% etc etc

This post has been edited by chaosneo: Jun 8 2023, 09:09 AM

just be patience,
no offensive against a peer to peer will not incur losses.

it would be naive to expect that Ukrainian probing attacks won't incur losses but the good thing is, some of these probing attacks actually broke through and capture territory as claim on russian telegram channels.

while Ukrainian is in tight OPSEC and the russian media is ablaze with panic, we probably see some changes by end of this week.

as well as people who post from sources who has history of using fake or edited images.

i don't doubt the losses but the progress as i seen in a pattern across other media seems to indicate differently with a few towns under occupied by russia issue immediate evacuation orders and civilians reporting sounds of fighting getting close.

but we shall see...

the commander for one of the sectors

this is the question.
how large is considered large?

and no way we can ascertain the losses but one thing we can ascertain is the ferocious of the battle across the few concentration point is especially strong.

there is day battles as well as reportedly night battles as well.

you are right there.

so far i see one? three? leopard tanks. if i am not wrong, they should have a few dozens and is the challengers arrived in Ukraine yet?
based on this, i think UA is still holding its main force and still prodding.

and the three layer defense lines, i think it is especially challenging for any kind of offensive, not to mention by military doctrine, offensive force will take a 3 to 1 casualty rate on average. we shall see if they will manage to reach the first defensive line though i read unconfirmed reports that some section they reach the first defensive lines and also second, but fail to hold onto the second defensive line.

all these reports are from russian milbloggers, UA keeping OPSEC very tight and not willing to divulge anything on operational level.