Tactical situation worsens for Russians south of Bakhmut – ISW

Bandera regime outright lies exposed....

Did The Impossible Happen?

Putin Pumps Cruise Missile Arsenal For Winter War; UK MoD Reveals Zelensky's Worst Nightmare

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's worst nightmare is set to come true. Ukraine is bracing itself for another winter war with Russia. The UK Defence ministry said that Vladimir Putin was reportedly boosting Russia's cruise missile arsenal for a winter onslaught on Ukraine. Last year, Russia had targeted energy infrastructure in Ukraine during the winter with the missiles.

Putin's Men Foil Drone Attack On Moscow, Crimea; Russian Oil Depot Goes Up In Flames | Watch

Russia has said that it thwarted a coordinated drone attack by Ukraine on Moscow and annexed Crimea. Russia’s Ministry of Defence said that two drones over Moscow were destroyed while six UAVs were intercepted at various locations in Crimea. The Ukraine drone attack also resulted in an explosion at an oil depot in the Oryol region in Russia, while also hampering flight operations.

The Fall of Andriivka And Complete Dominance In The Air. Military Summary And Analysis For 2023.9.17

Footage from recently liberated Andriivka by the 3rd separate assault brigade.

"An episode from an ambush on the occupiers. When the enemy attempted to change their position, the Russians came into sight of our UAV," the brigade adds.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1703332907853455718

AFU inside Klishchiivka 🇺🇦👍

Fighters of the United Assault Brigade of the National Police “Lyut”

📍48.52783870611905, 37.95780518391437

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1703333762036326620

pulling forces away from the dangerous NATO now?
or the casualties are so great now on the frontlines?

-----

Russia has withdrawn its military from the border with #Norway, said the chief of the Norwegian General Staff

Only about 20% of the number of soldiers stationed there before Russia's full-scale invasion of #Ukraine are currently deployed near the border with Norway, said the chief of the Norwegian Armed Forces General Staff, General Eirik Kristoffersen. The same situation is on Russia's border with #Finland, pointed out Rob Bauer, chairman of #NATO's military committee.

According to Kristoffersen, this decision clearly shows that Putin knows - NATO is not a threat to the Russian Federation: "If he believed we were a threat to Russia, he wouldn't have moved his troops to war in Ukraine."

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1703307584210407890

Russia's Problems with Artillery Support Are Growing
There are major problems now with Russian artillery in Ukraine. "Every day Ukrainian forces are degrading Russian arty which throughout the war has been a strong suit for Moscow. They have leveled out parity and seem to actually have gained the upper hand."
@GeopoliticalGu1

Many sources confirm this fact, including the Russians themselves in leaked communications. "There are growing signs that Russia has already fallen back to its last practical artillery option, and likely has no backup plan." But avaialble option is only accelerating their artillery losses.
https://dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/6/21795...ut-of-artillery

The Russian situation will not improve as it is a result of numerous failures in their supply chain, equipment and battlefield conditions. Nor can they rely on the vast number of stored artillery pieces assumed before the war: "early US assessments vastly overestimated the amount that Russia had its disposal."
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/10/politics...aine/index.html

(1) Ammunition Crunch
"There are only two sources of “volume” artillery possible for Russia: 152 mm howitzers and 120 mm mortars. Russia lacks the number of units to provide volume fire support from any other tube artillery system." (Daily KOS)
"[Early success with artillery] was achieved by burning through around 20,000 152 mm artillery shells daily. This would require many howitzers to fire dozens, even over 100, shells a day to sustain this level of firepower. Russian artillery shell production has been estimated at around 733,000 shells per year (2,000 shells per day) at the very highest [Jamestown Foundation]... Many other projections estimate far lower production totals of around 700 per day, which would represent a fraction of the totals Russia was using. This likely explains how Russia managed to burn through ammunition stocks—believed to be in the millions of shells—in a bit more than a year." (Daily KOS)

Iran does not possess a signficant number of 152mm artillery pices or a big inventory of shells. The recent meeting with North Korea may have raised this issue. But up to this point "U.S. intelligence does not believe Russia is purchasing bulk quantities of the ammunition from North Korea for a simple reason: quality, or a lack thereof." Actual data shows that North Korea has fired over 300 rounds at an island target with only 80 hits due to shell quality. China appears set not to provide lethal military aid to Russia. (Daily KOS)

(2) Barrel Shortage
"Russia has another problem: replacement barrels. High-quality artillery barrels can withstand firing 2,000-3,000 shots, sometimes more. Poor quality barrels can burst after just 1,000 rounds or fewer. When Russian 152 mm howitzers are being called to lay down a few dozen rounds per day, they may require a new barrel after a month or two, or as little as every couple of weeks. At a firing rate of 20,000 rounds per day, Russia may be replacing as many as eight to 10 barrels daily. Russia may have needed around 3,000-4,000 replacement barrels per year, or somewhere around 6,000 barrels since the start of the conflict."

Russia cannot produce the hard steel alloys to make artillery barrels. "Motovilikha Plants in Perm and Barrikady in Volgograd Oblast are the only artillery barrel-making manufacturing plants remaining in Russia, which already limits production. Additionally, those factories need military-grade steel alloys to manufacture replacement barrels." Those steel alloys are not available in Russia and the possible sources are under sanctions since 2014. (Daily KOS)
These high grade steel alloys "have broad military applications: They are being used in artillery barrels, armored vehicles, body armor, and more. They cannot be substituted with ordinary bulk steel without catastrophically weakening the result. After Putin’s reforms cut off subsidized and “unprofitable” Russian military industries to cut costs, Russia’s military-grade steel industry essentially died entirely." (Daily KOS)

“Russia’s metal industry is dead,” our source says. “When a competition for barrel blanks was announced, all the samples put up for it turned out to be defective. The special thing about the new barrels is that they must withstand greater pressure, that is, be more durable. This requires special alloys and melting modes, as well as small-sized furnaces. The thing is: Russia’s metallurgy is focused on large volumes and mass grades of steel." https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/11/02...anks%20a%20year.

There are no likely sources of hard steel alloys for large scale exports to Russia. (Daily KOS)
"Russia very likely has run through any stock of replacement barrels it may have stockpiled, and also has likely been keeping its 152 mm artillery fielded by cannibalizing parts from older towed howitzers." (Daily KOS).

(3) Substitutions for Artillery Support
The only artillery weapons available in large numbers for the Russians in Ukraine are 120mm mortars, unshielded, operated in the open with range of 5-10km (vs 20 km for 152mm). (Daily KOS) "There has been a shift in reliance upon 152-mm howitzers to a much greater emphasis on 120-mm mortars in Russian fires; this reflects munitions and barrel availability."
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publi...nvasion-ukraine

These units are much more subject to counterbattery fire being closer to the front and can be destroyed with a single cluster munition round.
"In effect, Russia’s artillery arm most likely has its back against the wall. It is throwing 1959-era siege mortars into a modern battlefield that requires shoot-and-scoot tactics. Those guns are predictably being destroyed at a rapid clip. Russian towed mortar crews are also slow to deploy and highly vulnerable to counterbattery fire, being virtually unprotected even from shrapnel." (Daily KOS) These mortars wil lalso eventually face the same barrel repalcement issue.
While HIMARS precision rounds have been used to destroy an increasing number of 152mm howitzer and rare 240mm mortar positions, for mortars "a single cluster artillery round or missile can be used to take out the position, resulting in major ammunition savings." (Daily KOS)

(3) Ukrainian Ammo Dump Strikes
All Russian arms in the conflict have been subjected to often serious interdiction of ammunition. Published videos daily show huge explosions behind the front lines of large Russian stockpiles. Resupply by trucks has suffered by a shortage of military trucks suited to carry these very heavy loads as well as their interdiction by Ukrainian fire and partisan/special ops units. Ammo shortages have also grown more acute.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=K1OUXqkfbsE

(4) Barrel Wear
Given the problem of replacing barrels at the proper maintenance intervals, the Russians are forced to use 152mm barrels past their replacement dates. "Wear in gun barrels is inevitable and it progresses with firing of rounds. Barrel wear directly affects the chamber pressures and hence the muzzle velocities (MVs) of the shells being fired. Along with the loss of MV, range, accuracy etc." https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9069641
This will require even the 152mm howitzers to be operated closer to the front due to range and accuracy issues caused by barrel wear, making them more vulnerable to counterbattery and drone attacks.

(5) Combat Attrition of Russian Artillery
Due to the changes on the battlefield described above (as well as more fixed piece 152mm howtizers and greater use of mortars), the rates of combat attrition of Russian artillery have dramatically increased. The Rissians are losing 1% of the deployed artillery every day and sometimes up to 2%.
https://lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/d...c?s=tHReaApNac8

It seems physically impossible for Russia to reverse the sharp decline in the combat effectivenss of its artillery force in Ukraine on time scales relevant to the current war. Since Ukrainans losses have been over 70% caused from artillery, the imapt is being felt throughout the front. It also can explain the lack of a spike in the casualty ratios despite Ukrainians beign on the offense where losses normally significantly increase.

https://twitter.com/randymot4/status/170265...6986991038?s=20

FPV drone hit.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1703145240364736864

Repeated strike by the Russian Armed Forces in the area of the tank repair plant in Kharkov

At night, around 01.00 local time, Russian troops launched a second strike with four missiles on the outskirts of the Kharkov Armored Plant (KhBTZ). The targets of the attack were two workshops of a reinforced concrete products plant located nearby.

▪️ In the first building on Bolshaya Panasovskaya, 218, a large ammunition depot was hit: within 20 minutes after the arrival and the start of the fire, shells continued to detonate and fragments scattered.

▪️ In the second building at Bolshaya Panasovskaya, 220 there was a parking lot for equipment, mainly trucks. They were also destroyed.

This is the second attack in the vicinity of the enterprise in a day: on the morning of September 16, the Russian Armed Forces accurately hit (https://t.me/rybar/51960) one of the two workshops of the main production activity at the KhBTZ, and also accurately hit the armored vehicle parking lot in the building of the reinforced concrete plant.

Both facilities were truly of great importance to the enemy: the first had been constantly repairing tanks since the spring of 2022, and the second was used as a storage facility for repaired armored vehicles before being loaded at the railway station for shipment to the front line. As it turned out, there was also an ammunition depot there.

❗️ It is especially worth noting the extremely competent approach of the Russian Armed Forces to the defeat of these objects. At least two missiles were allocated to each target, and after additional reconnaissance, Russian troops promptly launched a second strike, which the AFU simply did not expect.

And although this required greater scrupulousness and consumption of ammunition, the result of the attack fully justified all the costs.

Another AFU raid on Crimea

At night, Ukrainian formations again launched six drones in the direction of the Crimean Peninsula. The takeoff of the drones was recorded by units of the PMC "Bears" around 21.00 from the north of Zaporizhia/ south of Dnipropetrovsk regions

🔻 After midnight, the UAVs flew to Crimea, bypassing air defense detection areas in new Russian territories. The first three UAVs were shot down by crews of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Divisions near Portovoy and Cape Tarkhankut.

Another one was destroyed on approach to the Kirovsky airfield (it had already become a target of the AFU more than once), and two more were hit over Feodosia. Judging by the area where the debris fell, Ukrainian formations tried to strike the oil depot again.

🔻 One of the drones discovered at the power facility vaguely resembles drones produced by the Ukrjet company. Based on the visual outline, it can be assumed that this is something similar to the UJ-22 Airborne or UJ-31 Zlyva.

Russian air defense units coped with the attack, but the raid itself was small in number and more like testing the air defense before a more massive attack.

Morning briefing of the Ministry of Defense of Russia (September 17, 2023) ❗Text only❗

▫️The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

▫️In Donetsk direction, the Yug Group of Forces' units, aviation and artillery repelled three attacks of AFU 53rd mechanised infantry and 79th air assault brigades' units near Khimik and Maryinka (Donetsk People's Republic).

▫️The enemy losses were up to 180 Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one German-manufactured Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled artillery system, and one Grad MLRS system.

▫️In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian grouping of troops, aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems have repelled one attack by the 47th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU close to Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).

▫️AFU 82nd air assault, 71st chaser, and 47th mechanised brigades' manpower and hardware concentration areas have been hit close to Verbovoye, and Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).

▫️During combat actions, the enemy losses were up to 140 servicemen, one U.S.-manufactured Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, and four motor vehicles.

▫️In the course of the counter-battery warfare, one M777 artillery system, one U.S.-manufactured M119 howitzer, and one D-30 howitzer were destroyed.

▫️One ammunition depot of the 43rd Artillery Brigade of the AFU has been destroyed close to Novodanilovka (Zaporozhye region).

▫️In Krasny Liman direction, as a result of competent actions by units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, aviation and artillery, two attacks by assault groups of the 12th Special Forces Brigade and the 67th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU have been repelled close to Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic), and Serebryansky forestry.

▫️In addition, AFU 21st, 63rd and 67th mechanised brigades have been hit close to Yampolovka, Torskoye (Donetsk People's Republic), and Serebryanskoye forestry.

▫️Up to 65 Ukrainian personnel, two armoured fighting vehicles, and two pickup trucks have been eliminated.

▫️In South Donetsk direction, the courageous and decisive actions of the Vostok Group of Forces, aviation and artillery repelled three attacks of AFU 35th, 36th marine brigades' assault groups near Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People's Republic), and Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye region).

▫️Aviation and artillery launched attacks at manpower and hardware of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade near Ugledar (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as the 108th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Voskresenka (Donetsk People's Republic).

▫️The enemy losses were up to 170 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, and one electronic warfare station.

▫️In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Group of Forces' aviation and artillery launched attacks at manpower and hardware of AFU 32nd, 115th mechanised, 25th, 95th airborne brigades close to Boldyrevka, Sinkovka, Ivanovka, and Berestovoye (Kharkov region).

▫️Up to 50 Ukrainian personnel and four motor vehicles have been destroyed.

▫️In the course of the counter-battery warfare, two U.S.-manufactured M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzers, one Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery system, as well as one U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system were destroyed.

▫️Moreover, two U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-50 counterbattery warfare radars have been destroyed near Peschanoye and Petropavlovka (Kharkov region).

▫️In Kherson direction, up to 20 Ukrainian servicemen, one armoured fighting vehicle, two motor vehicles, as well as one UAV control post have been eliminated close to Dneprovskoye (Kherson region).

▫️Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised manpower and military hardware in 114 areas.

▫️In addition, a missile strike hit the production workshops of the Kharkov Armoured Plant, where AFU armoured vehicles were being repaired and restored close to Kharkov.

▫️Command and observation posts of AFU 100th territorial defence, and 67th mechanised brigades were destroyed near Serebryanka (Donetsk People's Republic).

▫️The Russian anti-aircraft defence means have intercepted two JDAM guided aerial bombs, one HARM anti-radar missile and one U.S.-manufactured HIMARS MLRS projectile.

▫️28 UAVs were destroyed and suppressed by electronic warfare means close to Vasilevka, Nevelskoye, Spornoye (Donetsk People's Republic), Olshana, Golikovo, Kremennaya (Lugansk People's Republic), Azov, Novoye, Romanovskoye, Ocheretovatoye (Zaporozhye region), and Radensk (Kherson region).

📊In total, 472 airplanes, 249 helicopters, 6,838 unmanned aerial vehicles, 437 air defence missile systems, 11,919 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,151 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 6,411 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 13,090 special military motor vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.

The Fall | Klishchiivka and Andriivka Have Fallen. Siversk Direction. Military Summary For 2023.9.17

🇺🇦Ukrainian home-made 80-mm MLRS SIVALKA VM-8 based on a pickup strikes 🇷🇺Russian positions

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/...380865244373244

A portion of what is left of the Russian 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade near #Andriivka, #Bakhmut Sector.

sorry, no preview, too many dead russian bodies.

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1703366359252410462

Consequences of the 🇺🇦JDAM air strike on the location of the 🇷🇺Russian military in Svitlodarsk, Donetsk region

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/...319229515141576

Russia Bombs Kharkiv's Armoured Vehicles Repair Plant | Watch Ka-52 Blow Up Kyiv's Command Centre

Russia took down another Ukrainian depot in its campaign to make Ukrainian counteroffensive fail. The Russian forces have claimed to have launched a missile strike on Ukrainian armoured vehicles plant in Kharkiv. Meanwhile, Ka-52 attack helicopters dropped missiles on an Ukrainian command centre along the frontline. In the last 24 hours, the Russian defence ministry said that over 600 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed as their 9 counterattacks failed. 👍

North Korea's Kim Takes Home Russia's Kamikaze, Geran-25 Drones; Lavrov Jabs West On Sanctions

On his last day of Russia tour, Kim Jong-un received deadly gifts from Russia. The governor of the Primorye region gifted Kim Kamikaze and Geran-2 drones and bulletproof vest. The North Korean leader returned home after interacting with North Korean students at a university, touring an aquarium and watching a seal show in Russia's far east. Meanwhile, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu jabbed the West and declared that Russia wants to develop fair cooperation with North Korea despite sanctions imposed by the UN security council.

Trophy 🇷🇺Russian tank T-80BVM in service with the Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/...382113494433918

🇺🇦Ukrainian military personnel from 22 separate mechanized brigades strike 🇷🇺Russian positions with the help of 122-mm MLRS BM-21 "Grad" in the direction of Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/...362240819204147

The 🇨🇿Czech 122-mm MLRS RM-70 in service with the Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine strikes 🇷🇺Russian positions

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/...324658920304871