QUOTE(howszat @ Aug 1 2008, 11:41 PM)
Past performance is no indication of future performance. In particular, if you look at the performance over the past 10 years, it has
never dropped like it has done over the past month or so. The conditions/assumptions are no longer the same. High oil prices, and hence inflation and the possibility of increases in IR is not going to go away.
On the other hand, if you stick with bond funds out to the maturity dates, you will be less exposed to the fluctuations in between. Then again, if you have a long term view, I was told equities would outperform bonds.
No right or wrong. Just a different perspective.
Past performance is no indication of the future, that is true for equity. Bond funds are generally safer investments, which do not really give a negative return because of the coupons. It gives some degree of secutiry, unless for troubled companies like Transmile, which would then default on the payment. If there is no default, then bond is still relatively safe. For the 3 companies I mentioned just now, they are quite stable companies, namely PB, RHB Capital and Malakoff.
No doubt that equity could outperform bonds in the longer term, but the volatility of equity makes it very much riskier than bonds, thus making that slight outperformance not really worth it. Lets take a look at some of the strongest fund and compare.
10-years period (Annualised):
Public Savings Fund - 10%
Public Growth Fund - 10%
Public Index Fund - 9.6%
Public Aggressive Growth Fund - 11%
Public Industry Fund - 10.5%
Public Regular Savings Fund - 10%
Public Ittikal Fund (Best performer) - 12.5%
Against Public Bond Fund 10-year annualised - 8.5%
So as you can see, all the other equity funds have just outperformed PBOND by only 2% - 3%, but their risks are MUCH higher compared to bonds.
Since we are in a very volatile market situation now, most of the funds have been dropping by 20% - 30% from their highs, compared to PBOND's 3% drop. The returns are relatively lower compared to the risks, unless of course if we see another bull run like in 2007, but I doubt we would be seeing that in the next 5 years.
"if you look at the performance over the past 10 years, it has
never dropped like it has done over the past month or so"
Perhaps it has never dropped around 3% - 4% before in its 12 years of launch, but it did drop quite significantly in the years 2003 and 2006, but after these huge drops, it made some hefty gains as well. I do not deny the fact that the fund has been more volatile these few months, but it should not drop that much, unless something is really wrong with those bond issuers.
Well, I hope I did not confuse you or anyone else with my explaination. I am not very good at explaining these bonds stuffs though

Anyway, this is just my 2 cents worth, and I aware that I bear my own risks with this fund

Just a sharing of what I thought.