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> Tesla shareholder discussion, Bears and Bulls are welcome

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abcn1n
post Mar 7 2021, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(Ziet Inv @ Mar 5 2021, 07:06 PM)
Catch my conversation with kelvinlym where we talk about Tesla and the broad market situation!

YouTube video link:

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Thanks for the video
TSkelvinlym
post Mar 10 2021, 01:56 PM

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Up 19% in a day because why not? LOL.

Never trade short term unless you are clairvoyant.
meonkutu11
post Mar 20 2021, 11:19 AM

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thxxht
post Apr 2 2021, 10:21 PM

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Q1 deliveries 180k, beat expectations. Monday to the moon
TSkelvinlym
post Apr 2 2021, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(thxxht @ Apr 2 2021, 10:21 PM)
Q1 deliveries 180k, beat expectations. Monday to the moon
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Very likely.

But nothing is certain with the market nowadays.
TSkelvinlym
post May 26 2021, 07:32 AM

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The stock has been volatile lately due to macro economic conditions.

Some short term stuff to look forward to. FSD is transitioning to pure vision. https://www.tesla.com/support/transitioning-tesla-vision

It will remove the need to use the radar for identifying obstructions. They will deliver cars with some features disabled during the transition and will add them back in the “coming weeks”. There’s risk of negative press in the unlikely case that there will be longer delays. There’s also the unlikely event that this transition doesn’t work out and radar has to be reinstated but I believe in the company’s ingenuity.

FSD subscription seems very likely soon as a script has been found on the website showing the cost at $99/mth for highway driving and $199/mth for highway and city.

June 3 is scheduled for a Model S Plaid delivery event which brings a sub $120k vehicle with hypercar performance to the market. There might be surprises but keep expectations low. This event has been delayed since February.

Expect volatility in the stock price.
TSkelvinlym
post Jul 27 2021, 05:11 AM

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Q2 earnings out.

Beats across the board.

Key takeaways:

1. Shanghai to be an export hub. Helps margins.

2. Semi production postponed (again) to 2022 due to parts shortages.

3. Net income grew 10x YoY.

4. Expansion seems to be on track, energy business still supply constrained.

5. Automotive margins ex credits improved shows less reliance on ZEV credit sales.
TSkelvinlym
post Jul 30 2021, 12:34 PM

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I was looking at the 10-Q filing and realised that not many people realise Tesla is retiring debt and convertibles.

A further USD1.8billion 2025 notes will be redeemed early in August. This brings their long term debt further down to around $6billion. This is less than half of their cash. Cash, not assets!

What this means is that a rerating by credit agencies is inevitable!

Current Moody rating: Ba3
Current S&P rating: BB-

These ratings are just slightly below investment grade.

While debt ratings upgrade should not affect a stock price performance, it will give Tesla more firepower to retire expensive debt and restructure their debts. All these help the bottom line.

Take what you can from this and do your own research.

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Sky.Live
post Jul 31 2021, 05:02 PM

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few question to be note to tesla
1. 4680 batteries, are they too difficult to put in short term?
2. are china market too difficult for tesla to penetrate, BYD is a real threat
3. how should tesla expand with so much cash on hand
4. if tesla cannot solve FSD, how should we look at Tsla differently
lfw
post Jul 31 2021, 05:06 PM

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dear all, i am a newbie to stocks, just 1 quick question: TSLA is priced at USD 687.20, so if I want to buy 1 share , I need to fork out USD 687.20 per share, is my understanding correct?
TSkelvinlym
post Jul 31 2021, 05:45 PM

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QUOTE(Sky.Live @ Jul 31 2021, 05:02 PM)
few question to be note to tesla
1. 4680 batteries, are they too difficult to put in short term?
2. are china market too difficult for tesla to penetrate, BYD is a real threat
3. how should tesla expand with so much cash on hand
4. if tesla cannot solve FSD, how should we look at Tsla differently
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1. Nobody except for Tesla knows. I would say that Tesla is very confident of 4680 batteries. Short term may be difficult due to supply and production constraints. Based on the recent earnings call, the management stated that they are solving the last 10% of manufacturing processes, whatever that means.

2. I see Tesla as being like Apple. They won't have the largest market share in terms of volumes, but may have the largest share in terms of profits and brand mindshare.

3. They need more factories. Elon has already said that they are investing as fast as possible.

4. I don't know about you, but my current thesis does not include FSD. I'm still conservative but cautiously optimistic on FSD. If they don't solve it, I doubt anybody else could. Worst case, there will be a time where certain roads will not allow human drivers at all. If that's the case, I reckon that current solutions are already possible to solve that. There may be laws that must have the car speak to the infrastructure and traffic control and other vehicles etc.
TSkelvinlym
post Jul 31 2021, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(lfw @ Jul 31 2021, 05:06 PM)
dear all, i am a newbie to stocks, just 1 quick question: TSLA is priced at USD 687.20, so if I want to buy 1 share , I need to fork out USD 687.20 per share, is my understanding correct?
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Yes. And also you need to pay commissions etc depending on your broker. E.g. Your broker charges USD1 per trade, then you have to pay USD688.20.

Some brokers offer fractional shares so you can own less than 1 share if you can't afford 1 share.
lamode
post Aug 1 2021, 04:28 PM

anything could happen!
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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Jul 31 2021, 05:45 PM)
1. Nobody except for Tesla knows. I would say that Tesla is very confident of 4680 batteries. Short term may be difficult due to supply and production constraints. Based on the recent earnings call, the management stated that they are solving the last 10% of manufacturing processes, whatever that means.

2. I see Tesla as being like Apple. They won't have the largest market share in terms of volumes, but may have the largest share in terms of profits and brand mindshare.

3. They need more factories. Elon has already said that they are investing as fast as possible.

4. I don't know about you, but my current thesis does not include FSD. I'm still conservative but cautiously optimistic on FSD. If they don't solve it, I doubt anybody else could. Worst case, there will be a time where certain roads will not allow human drivers at all. If that's the case, I reckon that current solutions are already possible to solve that. There may be laws that must have the car speak to the infrastructure and traffic control and other vehicles etc.
*
thanks for your time and efforts in providing ur views n other info. much appreciated thumbup.gif notworthy.gif
Sky.Live
post Aug 2 2021, 08:32 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Jul 31 2021, 05:45 PM)
1. Nobody except for Tesla knows. I would say that Tesla is very confident of 4680 batteries. Short term may be difficult due to supply and production constraints. Based on the recent earnings call, the management stated that they are solving the last 10% of manufacturing processes, whatever that means.

2. I see Tesla as being like Apple. They won't have the largest market share in terms of volumes, but may have the largest share in terms of profits and brand mindshare.

3. They need more factories. Elon has already said that they are investing as fast as possible.

4. I don't know about you, but my current thesis does not include FSD. I'm still conservative but cautiously optimistic on FSD. If they don't solve it, I doubt anybody else could. Worst case, there will be a time where certain roads will not allow human drivers at all. If that's the case, I reckon that current solutions are already possible to solve that. There may be laws that must have the car speak to the infrastructure and traffic control and other vehicles etc.
*
1. I hope they success, 4680 success if vital for whole EV industry
2. 20million production target by 2030, not sure their market segment aim, definitely no like apple (high end) currently. There are many sector Tesla can branch into boosting their revenue, have to wait and see
3. Regulatory seems to be the enemy here. But i guess it's just matter of time
4. erm with FSD i would expect a 6-7x price target in 10 years, without it probably about half. I hope FSD success because i hate driving

This post has been edited by Sky.Live: Aug 2 2021, 08:33 PM
TSkelvinlym
post Aug 2 2021, 09:47 PM

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QUOTE(Sky.Live @ Aug 2 2021, 08:32 PM)
1.  I hope they success, 4680 success if vital for whole EV industry
2. 20million production target by 2030, not sure their market segment aim, definitely no like apple (high end) currently. There are many sector Tesla can branch into boosting their revenue, have to wait and see
3. Regulatory seems to be the enemy here. But i guess it's just matter of time
4. erm with FSD i would expect a 6-7x price target in 10 years, without it probably about half. I hope FSD success because i hate driving
*
I would argue that 4680 is actually just the form factor. The battery chemistry, processes and raw material use is more important in bringing down prices to make EVs more affordable and acceptable to the general public.

Regarding the Apple comparison, I'm comparing to the profit share, not the product range. The TAM for mobile phones is larger and the price is more reachable by more people. I agree with you that Tesla will definitely have to be a mass car manufacturer by bringing down their prices further. However, I don't foresee Tesla selling very cheap cars lower than $20k range.
Sky.Live
post Aug 3 2021, 08:43 AM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Aug 2 2021, 09:47 PM)
I would argue that 4680 is actually just the form factor. The battery chemistry, processes and raw material use is more important in bringing down prices to make EVs more affordable and acceptable to the general public.

Regarding the Apple comparison, I'm comparing to the profit share, not the product range. The TAM for mobile phones is larger and the price is more reachable by more people. I agree with you that Tesla will definitely have to be a mass car manufacturer by bringing down their prices further. However, I don't foresee Tesla selling very cheap cars lower than $20k range.
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ya i mean 4680 as the "tesla" battery that can have some technology or cost advantage

agree on your second point, 20k vehicle is good. maybe 15k limit. with subsidy we can see Tesla everywhere.

On Tesla quality, i heard very bipolar opinion lately, improved tremendously through manufacturing innovation and still not very reliable. Not sure what is the actual situation now
james.6831
post Aug 3 2021, 01:24 PM

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rebound reboundddd..will it hit ATH again
TSkelvinlym
post Aug 6 2021, 09:43 AM

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Rumour: Tesla’s next Made in China $25k car to use BYD blade batteries. Production Q2 2022.

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This post has been edited by kelvinlym: Aug 6 2021, 09:44 AM
TSkelvinlym
post Oct 21 2021, 11:51 AM

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Q3 earnings out.

Mind-blowing results. Gross auto margins very healthy.
tehoice
post Oct 21 2021, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 21 2021, 11:51 AM)
Q3 earnings out.

Mind-blowing results. Gross auto margins very healthy.
*
your investment since years ago has won, big time....

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