1. Nobody except for Tesla knows. I would say that Tesla is very confident of 4680 batteries. Short term may be difficult due to supply and production constraints. Based on the recent earnings call, the management stated that they are solving the last 10% of manufacturing processes, whatever that means.

2. I see Tesla as being like Apple. They won't have the largest market share in terms of volumes, but may have the largest share in terms of profits and brand mindshare.

3. They need more factories. Elon has already said that they are investing as fast as possible.

4. I don't know about you, but my current thesis does not include FSD. I'm still conservative but cautiously optimistic on FSD. If they don't solve it, I doubt anybody else could. Worst case, there will be a time where certain roads will not allow human drivers at all. If that's the case, I reckon that current solutions are already possible to solve that. There may be laws that must have the car speak to the infrastructure and traffic control and other vehicles etc.

I would argue that 4680 is actually just the form factor. The battery chemistry, processes and raw material use is more important in bringing down prices to make EVs more affordable and acceptable to the general public.

Regarding the Apple comparison, I'm comparing to the profit share, not the product range. The TAM for mobile phones is larger and the price is more reachable by more people. I agree with you that Tesla will definitely have to be a mass car manufacturer by bringing down their prices further. However, I don't foresee Tesla selling very cheap cars lower than $20k range.