QUOTE(tehoice @ Oct 21 2021, 12:04 PM)
There's still room to grow. That is what's mind-blowing.Tesla shareholder discussion, Bears and Bulls are welcome
Tesla shareholder discussion, Bears and Bulls are welcome
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Oct 21 2021, 12:13 PM
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1,152 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Kuala Lumpur |
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Oct 21 2021, 12:15 PM
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3,904 posts Joined: Jul 2007 |
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Oct 21 2021, 12:43 PM
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1,152 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Kuala Lumpur |
Just went through the Q3 earnings. As usual, my takeaways.
1. Gross auto margins ex credits very impressive at 28%. Also Operating margin at mid teens is proving Tesla's operating leverage. No auto company that I know of is anywhere near that. 2. 4680 may be nearer than we think. They say may see it in cars next year. Likely Model Y from Fremont with structural battery pack. I recently participated in a call about their production of the 4680. Very promising and will be very high speed for their new lines. Currently is yield issues when increasing speed. 3. Megapack production to go to 40GWh. 96% CAGR past 4 years. This shows Tesla is planning ahead. 4. Brandenburg and Austin on track to production this year but deliveries next year. 5. Cybertruck late next year. 6. FSD updates faster now with Dojo. 7. Insurance still too small to be significant but will be a way for Tesla to lower total cost of ownership. Difficult to reduce cost with commodity pricing so they believe insurance is ripe for disruption. 8. To focus on current products as still many room to grow. They were surprised by the awakening in demand for EV, especially for their products. These are some of the non obvious takeaways from my side. |
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Oct 22 2021, 11:23 AM
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1,152 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Kuala Lumpur |
All time highest close achieved at $894.00. Touched $900 several times but unable to reach all time high intraday price of $900.40.
Trailing PE 291x. Price target increases across most analysts with Buy rating. No upgrades as far as I can tell. |
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Oct 22 2021, 11:50 AM
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995 posts Joined: Dec 2016 |
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Oct 22 2021, 12:33 PM
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1,152 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Kuala Lumpur |
QUOTE(CSW1990 @ Oct 22 2021, 11:50 AM) Sadly I sold some took profit on Wed .. if can break ATH tonight near closing I have the plan to top up too I never "take profit" just for the sake of it. I sell only when I need the money for other uses. I never could time the market But you do you. Some people are comfortable with going in and out of the market. |
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Oct 22 2021, 05:52 PM
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6,427 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Autobiography!!! |
QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 22 2021, 11:23 AM) All time highest close achieved at $894.00. Touched $900 several times but unable to reach all time high intraday price of $900.40. According to charts easily 1200 year end and some bullish analyst TP goes as high as 1400Trailing PE 291x. Price target increases across most analysts with Buy rating. No upgrades as far as I can tell. |
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Oct 22 2021, 06:49 PM
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1,152 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Kuala Lumpur |
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Oct 23 2021, 12:21 AM
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6,427 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Autobiography!!! |
QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 22 2021, 06:49 PM) I don't know how to see charts. I also don't chase analyst TP. Easily double by next year once they’re able to delivered a million cars per quarter next year as it is next milestoneMaybe they're right, maybe they're wrong. What are your thoughts? Not much downside from here on now unless they doing stock split which trigger the the volatility Charting for Tesla is predicatable but it is the deliverables that matters that will push up the price |
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Oct 23 2021, 07:24 AM
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1,152 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Kuala Lumpur |
QUOTE(xander83 @ Oct 23 2021, 12:21 AM) Easily double by next year once they’re able to delivered a million cars per quarter next year as it is next milestone A million per quarter? Wow you’re more bullish than me. How would they do that with 4 factories? 500k per quarter is already pushing it.Not much downside from here on now unless they doing stock split which trigger the the volatility Charting for Tesla is predicatable but it is the deliverables that matters that will push up the price I’m not really sure you know what you’re talking about. That would mean 1.6-1.8 trillion in market cap on annual revenues of 192 billion, more than 4x from this year? It’s ok to be bullish but it should be backed by data and be realistic. red streak liked this post
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Oct 23 2021, 05:25 PM
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6,427 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Autobiography!!! |
QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 23 2021, 07:24 AM) A million per quarter? Wow you’re more bullish than me. How would they do that with 4 factories? 500k per quarter is already pushing it. It is not bullish but it’s the direction now that’s Tesla as the demand really is high after what is happening with oil price I’m not really sure you know what you’re talking about. That would mean 1.6-1.8 trillion in market cap on annual revenues of 192 billion, more than 4x from this year? It’s ok to be bullish but it should be backed by data and be realistic. Elon is already pushing it but now due to supply chain issues it is wait and see whether hit record breaking as never say never with Elon |
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Oct 23 2021, 06:05 PM
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1,152 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Kuala Lumpur |
QUOTE(xander83 @ Oct 23 2021, 05:25 PM) It is not bullish but it’s the direction now that’s Tesla as the demand really is high after what is happening with oil price But next year though? When did he say that?Elon is already pushing it but now due to supply chain issues it is wait and see whether hit record breaking as never say never with Elon He was targeting 50% growth per year. Next year would be 1.4 million vehicles per year, not a million per quarter. I don't know about you, but you should check your sources man. buffa liked this post
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Oct 26 2021, 06:35 AM
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1,152 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Kuala Lumpur |
$1 trillion market cap reached. 11 years from IPO, 18 years from founding. meonkutu11 liked this post
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Oct 26 2021, 09:22 AM
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1,597 posts Joined: Apr 2009 |
Congrats to all shareHODLers
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Oct 30 2021, 06:16 PM
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1,152 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Kuala Lumpur |
QUOTE(dumbinvestor @ Oct 30 2021, 05:45 PM) tesla going for $2000 in the next few yrs but so what? It always boils down to the risk/reward. When it was at a small market cap, the risks were higher due to bankruptcy risk, demand risk and others.if I have only 10k usd, how much will I get if I buy tesla now for 1k per stock? 10k * 2? so I only double my 10k? so the point isn't about tesla or another hot stock, it's always about how much capital you have no? This stock is not for everyone so you need to manage your expectations. Some people held Tesla since 2016 so their gains were already substantial. Some even took on more risk via margins or leverage. It’s not always about capital, one can borrow or leverage if the risk reward makes sense. If you are very confident in the company, you can e.g. use 10k and borrow 10k to invest (most brokers give that margin easily). When the stock 2x you will return the 10k +interest and have 30k in stock from your initial 10k. |
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Oct 30 2021, 06:43 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#236
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QUOTE(dumbinvestor @ Oct 30 2021, 05:45 PM) tesla going for $2000 in the next few yrs but so what? For Tesla if execute based on TA the last good entry opportunity is around 900 when break new high. Not worth to enter after that, so many other stocks to go and investor capital is not unlimited.if I have only 10k usd, how much will I get if I buy tesla now for 1k per stock? 10k * 2? so I only double my 10k? so the point isn't about tesla or another hot stock, it's always about how much capital you have no? Many people get trapped in Jan/Feb and not dare/no money top up after that |
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Oct 30 2021, 06:46 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#237
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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 30 2021, 06:16 PM) It always boils down to the risk/reward. When it was at a small market cap, the risks were higher due to bankruptcy risk, demand risk and others. Yeah agreed with you if one is confident in one company and go for long term investment, should consistently focus on it and when correction its good time to buy.. different way to work out compared to short term tradingThis stock is not for everyone so you need to manage your expectations. Some people held Tesla since 2016 so their gains were already substantial. Some even took on more risk via margins or leverage. It’s not always about capital, one can borrow or leverage if the risk reward makes sense. If you are very confident in the company, you can e.g. use 10k and borrow 10k to invest (most brokers give that margin easily). When the stock 2x you will return the 10k +interest and have 30k in stock from your initial 10k. |
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Oct 30 2021, 07:58 PM
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1,152 posts Joined: Jun 2007 From: Kuala Lumpur |
QUOTE(dumbinvestor @ Oct 30 2021, 06:23 PM) Does the stock price have a limit? my question is, is this too late to enter? if you look at other tech stock eg. Atlassian, it surged 1,603.09% in 5 yrs. why not use my capital to bet on something 'fresh' like palantir which is still cheap? Do you believe tesla will 5x in 2025 and 10x in 2030? I don't think so, there's a limit of buyers on this earth. That’s an answer you need to find out yourself. Some people thought 2020 was too late to enter but look where we are now. I don’t know your risk tolerance so I won’t say much. If you think another company has more potential then by all means go ahead. Just do your own research, understand the business and make your decision. |
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Nov 1 2021, 08:59 AM
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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 30 2021, 07:58 PM) That’s an answer you need to find out yourself. Some people thought 2020 was too late to enter but look where we are now. totally agreed.I don’t know your risk tolerance so I won’t say much. If you think another company has more potential then by all means go ahead. Just do your own research, understand the business and make your decision. if you believe in TSLA, but feel too high to go in, just dollar cost average. look at AMZN, 5 years ago, 2017 it was $7xx, then ATH at 1k, very high back then. in 2018, reached 2k, ATH again, wow very expensive!!! and then 3k in 2019, and now we are at 3.3k. |
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Nov 1 2021, 10:40 AM
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3,904 posts Joined: Jul 2007 |
QUOTE(dumbinvestor @ Nov 1 2021, 10:38 AM) so from $700 to $3000, if my capital is small, should i buy cheaper stock? why not buy the cheaper stock at $50, hope 5 yrs later it becomes $1000? isn't that easier and earn more? "If you think another company has more potential then by all means go ahead. Just do your own research, understand the business and make your decision." |
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