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 Tesla shareholder discussion, Bears and Bulls are welcome

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TSkelvinlym
post Oct 21 2021, 12:13 PM

Yes, that was my car.
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QUOTE(tehoice @ Oct 21 2021, 12:04 PM)
your investment since years ago has won, big time....
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There's still room to grow. That is what's mind-blowing.
lamode
post Oct 21 2021, 12:15 PM

anything could happen!
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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 21 2021, 11:51 AM)
Q3 earnings out.

Mind-blowing results. Gross auto margins very healthy.
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now is near ATH of $900, but I am planning to top up.
See you guys at $1.2k brows.gif
TSkelvinlym
post Oct 21 2021, 12:43 PM

Yes, that was my car.
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Just went through the Q3 earnings. As usual, my takeaways.

1. Gross auto margins ex credits very impressive at 28%. Also Operating margin at mid teens is proving Tesla's operating leverage. No auto company that I know of is anywhere near that.

2. 4680 may be nearer than we think. They say may see it in cars next year. Likely Model Y from Fremont with structural battery pack. I recently participated in a call about their production of the 4680. Very promising and will be very high speed for their new lines. Currently is yield issues when increasing speed.

3. Megapack production to go to 40GWh. 96% CAGR past 4 years. This shows Tesla is planning ahead.

4. Brandenburg and Austin on track to production this year but deliveries next year.

5. Cybertruck late next year.

6. FSD updates faster now with Dojo.

7. Insurance still too small to be significant but will be a way for Tesla to lower total cost of ownership. Difficult to reduce cost with commodity pricing so they believe insurance is ripe for disruption.

8. To focus on current products as still many room to grow. They were surprised by the awakening in demand for EV, especially for their products.

These are some of the non obvious takeaways from my side.
TSkelvinlym
post Oct 22 2021, 11:23 AM

Yes, that was my car.
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All time highest close achieved at $894.00. Touched $900 several times but unable to reach all time high intraday price of $900.40.

Trailing PE 291x.

Price target increases across most analysts with Buy rating. No upgrades as far as I can tell.
CSW1990
post Oct 22 2021, 11:50 AM

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QUOTE(lamode @ Oct 21 2021, 12:15 PM)
now is near ATH of $900, but I am planning to top up.
See you guys at $1.2k  brows.gif
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Sadly I sold some took profit on Wed .. if can break ATH tonight near closing I have the plan to top up too
TSkelvinlym
post Oct 22 2021, 12:33 PM

Yes, that was my car.
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QUOTE(CSW1990 @ Oct 22 2021, 11:50 AM)
Sadly I sold some took profit on Wed .. if can break ATH tonight near closing I have the plan to top up too
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I never "take profit" just for the sake of it. I sell only when I need the money for other uses. I never could time the market But you do you. Some people are comfortable with going in and out of the market.
SUSxander83
post Oct 22 2021, 05:52 PM

Blast off like a rocket
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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 22 2021, 11:23 AM)
All time highest close achieved at $894.00. Touched $900 several times but unable to reach all time high intraday price of $900.40.

Trailing PE 291x.

Price target increases across most analysts with Buy rating. No upgrades as far as I can tell.
*
According to charts easily 1200 year end and some bullish analyst TP goes as high as 1400
TSkelvinlym
post Oct 22 2021, 06:49 PM

Yes, that was my car.
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QUOTE(xander83 @ Oct 22 2021, 05:52 PM)
According to charts easily 1200 year end and some bullish analyst TP goes as high as 1400
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I don't know how to see charts. I also don't chase analyst TP.

Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong.

What are your thoughts?
SUSxander83
post Oct 23 2021, 12:21 AM

Blast off like a rocket
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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 22 2021, 06:49 PM)
I don't know how to see charts. I also don't chase analyst TP.

Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong.

What are your thoughts?
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Easily double by next year once they’re able to delivered a million cars per quarter next year as it is next milestone

Not much downside from here on now unless they doing stock split which trigger the the volatility

Charting for Tesla is predicatable but it is the deliverables that matters that will push up the price
TSkelvinlym
post Oct 23 2021, 07:24 AM

Yes, that was my car.
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QUOTE(xander83 @ Oct 23 2021, 12:21 AM)
Easily double by next year once they’re able to delivered a million cars per quarter next year as it is next milestone

Not much downside from here on now unless they doing stock split which trigger the the volatility

Charting for Tesla is predicatable but it  is the deliverables that matters that will push up the price
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A million per quarter? Wow you’re more bullish than me. How would they do that with 4 factories? 500k per quarter is already pushing it.

I’m not really sure you know what you’re talking about.

That would mean 1.6-1.8 trillion in market cap on annual revenues of 192 billion, more than 4x from this year? It’s ok to be bullish but it should be backed by data and be realistic.
SUSxander83
post Oct 23 2021, 05:25 PM

Blast off like a rocket
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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 23 2021, 07:24 AM)
A million per quarter? Wow you’re more bullish than me. How would they do that with 4 factories? 500k per quarter is already pushing it.

I’m not really sure you know what you’re talking about.

That would mean 1.6-1.8 trillion in market cap on annual revenues of 192 billion, more than 4x from this year? It’s ok to be bullish but it should be backed by data and be realistic.
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It is not bullish but it’s the direction now that’s Tesla as the demand really is high after what is happening with oil price

Elon is already pushing it but now due to supply chain issues it is wait and see whether hit record breaking as never say never with Elon doh.gif
TSkelvinlym
post Oct 23 2021, 06:05 PM

Yes, that was my car.
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QUOTE(xander83 @ Oct 23 2021, 05:25 PM)
It is not bullish but it’s the direction now that’s Tesla as the demand really is high after what is happening with oil price

Elon is already pushing it but now due to supply chain issues it is wait and see whether hit record breaking as never say never with Elon  doh.gif
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But next year though? When did he say that?

He was targeting 50% growth per year. Next year would be 1.4 million vehicles per year, not a million per quarter.

I don't know about you, but you should check your sources man.
TSkelvinlym
post Oct 26 2021, 06:35 AM

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$1 trillion market cap reached.

11 years from IPO, 18 years from founding.
meonkutu11
post Oct 26 2021, 09:22 AM

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Congrats to all shareHODLers
TSkelvinlym
post Oct 30 2021, 06:16 PM

Yes, that was my car.
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QUOTE(dumbinvestor @ Oct 30 2021, 05:45 PM)
tesla going for $2000 in the next few yrs but so what?

if I have only 10k usd, how much will I get if I buy tesla now for 1k per stock? 10k * 2? so I only double my 10k?

so the point isn't about tesla or another hot stock, it's always about how much capital you have no?
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It always boils down to the risk/reward. When it was at a small market cap, the risks were higher due to bankruptcy risk, demand risk and others.

This stock is not for everyone so you need to manage your expectations. Some people held Tesla since 2016 so their gains were already substantial. Some even took on more risk via margins or leverage.

It’s not always about capital, one can borrow or leverage if the risk reward makes sense. If you are very confident in the company, you can e.g. use 10k and borrow 10k to invest (most brokers give that margin easily). When the stock 2x you will return the 10k +interest and have 30k in stock from your initial 10k.
CSW1990
post Oct 30 2021, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(dumbinvestor @ Oct 30 2021, 05:45 PM)
tesla going for $2000 in the next few yrs but so what?

if I have only 10k usd, how much will I get if I buy tesla now for 1k per stock? 10k * 2? so I only double my 10k?

so the point isn't about tesla or another hot stock, it's always about how much capital you have no?
*
For Tesla if execute based on TA the last good entry opportunity is around 900 when break new high. Not worth to enter after that, so many other stocks to go and investor capital is not unlimited.
Many people get trapped in Jan/Feb and not dare/no money top up after that
CSW1990
post Oct 30 2021, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 30 2021, 06:16 PM)
It always boils down to the risk/reward. When it was at a small market cap, the risks were higher due to bankruptcy risk, demand risk and others.

This stock is not for everyone so you need to manage your expectations. Some people held Tesla since 2016 so their gains were already substantial. Some even took on more risk via margins or leverage.

It’s not always about capital, one can borrow or leverage if the risk reward makes sense. If you are very confident in the company, you can e.g. use 10k and borrow 10k to invest (most brokers give that margin easily). When the stock 2x you will return the 10k +interest and have 30k in stock from your initial 10k.
*
Yeah agreed with you if one is confident in one company and go for long term investment, should consistently focus on it and when correction its good time to buy.. different way to work out compared to short term trading
TSkelvinlym
post Oct 30 2021, 07:58 PM

Yes, that was my car.
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QUOTE(dumbinvestor @ Oct 30 2021, 06:23 PM)
Does the stock price have a limit? my question is, is this too late to enter? if you look at other tech stock eg. Atlassian, it surged 1,603.09% in 5 yrs. why not use my capital to bet on something 'fresh' like palantir which is still cheap? Do you believe tesla will 5x in 2025 and 10x in 2030? I don't think so, there's a limit of buyers on this earth.
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That’s an answer you need to find out yourself. Some people thought 2020 was too late to enter but look where we are now.

I don’t know your risk tolerance so I won’t say much.

If you think another company has more potential then by all means go ahead. Just do your own research, understand the business and make your decision.
lamode
post Nov 1 2021, 08:59 AM

anything could happen!
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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Oct 30 2021, 07:58 PM)
That’s an answer you need to find out yourself. Some people thought 2020 was too late to enter but look where we are now.

I don’t know your risk tolerance so I won’t say much.

If you think another company has more potential then by all means go ahead. Just do your own research, understand the business and make your decision.
*
totally agreed.
if you believe in TSLA, but feel too high to go in, just dollar cost average.
look at AMZN, 5 years ago, 2017 it was $7xx, then ATH at 1k, very high back then. in 2018, reached 2k, ATH again, wow very expensive!!!
and then 3k in 2019, and now we are at 3.3k. brows.gif whistling.gif
lamode
post Nov 1 2021, 10:40 AM

anything could happen!
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QUOTE(dumbinvestor @ Nov 1 2021, 10:38 AM)
so from $700 to $3000, if my capital is small, should i buy cheaper stock? why not buy the cheaper stock at $50, hope 5 yrs later it becomes $1000? isn't that easier and earn more?
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"If you think another company has more potential then by all means go ahead. Just do your own research, understand the business and make your decision."

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