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 Tesla shareholder discussion, Bears and Bulls are welcome

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shinozu
post Nov 30 2020, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Nov 3 2020, 12:43 PM)
Honda is joining FCA to pay Tesla for European emissions compliance. Still not sure how much this will be. For comparison, FCA is paying about $1 billion a year to Tesla. FCA sells about 1 mill vehicles in Europe annually. Honda is about one-tenth of that. So expect around $100 million of revenue to Tesla's top line.

I added 20 more shares on Monday when the stock dipped below 400. Cost basis now about USD65/share.
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You are riding all the way. Can see that. Admire your confidence in TESLA and patient. 65 is a very cheap and topping up along the way for you will be easier than someone who haven't entered. What is your advise to those who haven't enter? Catch the timing or just purely invest and let the time to do the rest. Or it is wiser to invest in another EV stocks?
honsiong
post Nov 30 2020, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Nov 30 2020, 10:01 AM)
You better know what you're doing.

Time decay is real. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
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Yeah thats the scary part, Tesla market cap is crazy but humans can be crazy right
TSkelvinlym
post Nov 30 2020, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(shinozu @ Nov 30 2020, 11:05 AM)
You are riding all the way. Can see that. Admire your confidence in TESLA and patient. 65 is a very cheap and topping up along the way for you will be easier than someone who haven't entered. What is your advise to those who haven't enter? Catch the timing or just purely invest and let the time to do the rest. Or it is wiser to invest in another EV stocks?
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I can't advise on whether to buy or sell.

It depends on how you see the company plus the risk and reward ratio.

First, you must be confident that the company will grow further. Then you must decide at whether entering at the current price is worth it for that growth. E.g. if you think Tesla will grow to a trillion market cap, entering now will bring you only about 66% upside.

It's all up to the individual.

As you have said, I entered at a low entry, but the risks were higher that time. I saw the risk is worth taking, for a potential 20x of my investment. So I took it.

Now, the future seems more secure for the company, hence the risk of it going bankrupt is near zero, however, the upside will be limited.

I wouldn't enter into other EVs personally, because no point for me to invest into the same sector. I would rather look for another sector.
shinozu
post Nov 30 2020, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Nov 30 2020, 02:04 PM)
I can't advise on whether to buy or sell.

It depends on how you see the company plus the risk and reward ratio.

First, you must be confident that the company will grow further. Then you must decide at whether entering at the current price is worth it for that growth. E.g. if you think Tesla will grow to a trillion market cap, entering now will bring you only about 66% upside.

It's all up to the individual.

As you have said, I entered at a low entry, but the risks were higher that time. I saw the risk is worth taking, for a potential 20x of my investment. So I took it.

Now, the future seems more secure for the company, hence the risk of it going bankrupt is near zero, however, the upside will be limited.

I wouldn't enter into other EVs personally, because no point for me to invest into the same sector. I would rather look for another sector.
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Noted. You still weight the risk/reward ratio (well noted on that part). Yes early years the risk was higher but the rewards might be 10x more. You did your homework well. I also understand why you are not into other EVs as you already holding the best in the market.

Keep it up the discussion here.
TSkelvinlym
post Nov 30 2020, 02:43 PM

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News from my analyst friend who participated in a call with S&P. They will very likely go for the two tranche approach as consensus from managers are leaning towards that.

Those holding options be careful, volatility will be high.
Ivan113
post Nov 30 2020, 08:33 PM

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Now only I know there's Gigafactory 4/5, I guess Tesla really is conquering the world with EV
TSkelvinlym
post Dec 1 2020, 09:51 AM

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Looks like we were wrong. S&P decided to go ahead with adding Tesla at one go. They seem confident of the liquidity. Get ready for volatility. They might be underestimating this meme stock.
TSkelvinlym
post Dec 18 2020, 10:55 AM

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Another all-time high close at $655.90.

S&P Global raised Tesla's rating to BB from BB- with a positive outlook due to zero net debt.

I think Tesla is now the only automaker in the world with zero net debt.
Hansel
post Dec 18 2020, 11:53 PM

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Tesla hitting new high again tonight,.... but will it plunge on MOnday ?

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/...=social-organic
TSkelvinlym
post Dec 19 2020, 12:19 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 18 2020, 11:53 PM)
Tesla hitting new high again tonight,.... but will it plunge on MOnday ?

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/...=social-organic
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I actually got up at 4.30 am to see how it played out.

At 3.30 pm ET, the market makers likely sold a lot and pushed the price down to trigger stop losses, then started to pick up shares slowly. At 3.50 pm ET on the dot when the Market at Close orders come in, the volume spiked and jumped from $630 to $670. Orders start getting filled and hovered around that range. At 4.00 pm ET at closing, the closing cross orders filled at the price closed at $695 with a volume of 70M+ shares traded!!!! This means that there might still be an overhang of shares to be bought as there is a buy-side imbalance of roughly 12M at closing auction.

What a ride!

If anyone has TA experience, feel free to share your thoughts on this once in a lifetime event.

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icemanfx
post Dec 23 2020, 12:06 AM

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QUOTE(lamode @ Dec 22 2020, 11:45 AM)
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#ddtg rules! thumbup.gif
Hansel
post Dec 23 2020, 04:08 PM

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Will ABNB be the next TSLA... or even coming close to it ?
TSkelvinlym
post Dec 23 2020, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 23 2020, 04:08 PM)
Will ABNB be the next TSLA... or even coming close to it ?
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What similarities do they share?
Hansel
post Dec 24 2020, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Dec 23 2020, 04:18 PM)
What similarities do they share?
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Well,... off the top of my head, ABNB and TSLA have the same characteristics wrt their respective industries :-

1) they are mkt leaders.
2) they have first-mover advantages in their lines of business and initiatives vs their competitors.
3) they spend their net earnings into actions which garner them higher mkt shares, eg, into mkt expenses.
4) they have strong barriers-to-entry, and this barrier is growing by the day.
they do not give out dividends.
TSkelvinlym
post Dec 31 2020, 08:34 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 24 2020, 11:21 AM)
Well,... off the top of my head, ABNB and TSLA have the same characteristics wrt their respective industries :-

1) they are mkt leaders.

Tesla does not dominate the market share. They are around 18% in EV and insignificant in the automotive market share. ABNB arguably is the leader in accommodation booking and is looking into other travel businesses. However, other competitors are not standing still.

2) they have first-mover advantages in their lines of business and initiatives vs their competitors.

I agree.

3) they spend their net earnings into actions which garner them higher mkt shares, eg, into mkt expenses.

Depends. Tesla is investing in increasing production and revolutionary technologies. Airbnb is investing lots more in marketing but I don't see anything revolutionary. I'm not well-versed in Airbnb but I would go through their finances with a fine-tooth comb to see where most of the money goes and whether there is a solid plan to profitability.

4) they have strong barriers-to-entry, and this barrier is growing by the day.

I beg to differ. The barrier of entry to an accommodation booking platform is pretty low. The capex is low compared to a manufacturing business.

they do not give out dividends.

This is irrelevant to the business performance.
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Oklahoma
post Jan 1 2021, 07:36 PM

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hmm planning to dabble into TESLA for the first time. Planning to buy 1 stock of TESLA for fun.
Oklahoma
post Jan 1 2021, 07:37 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Dec 31 2020, 08:34 PM)
My opinions in red.
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what platform you use to trade US stocks?
Hansel
post Jan 2 2021, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Dec 31 2020, 08:34 PM)
My opinions in red.
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Tq Kelvin,...

I'll reply to comments 4) and 5).

To 4), everytime a new acct-holder or a member opens a new acct OR a house-owner opens a new acct as a host, ABNB becomes stronger and the barrier-to-entry for competitors become higher. The members of ABNB are very active. ABNB is a key pioneer in the renting-out of individual homes as holiday accommodations. This, in itself, provides first-mover advantage,.. and this first-mover advantage usually creates a barrier-of-entry for the first-mover.

I agree the capex of ABNB is low, and there is almost negligible hard assets for a business the size of ABNB. Wouldn't this be a good mix ?

To 5), Looking at a business from the opposite end, a dividend-paying business would also signal business performance has been good. Hence, one way I would judge the performance of a business is from the perspective of whether it is paying out a sustainable dividend or not.

Think I'll reply to 3) too, I would reply to part of your statements. Sometimes,.. it is no more necessary today to look at metrics and company performance figures. IPOs and share price performance are heavily moved by sentiments, and by write-ups of analysts and bloggers out there. Anyway,... having said the last two sentences, ABNB has turned profitable this year.

And TSLA has turned slightly profitable without using carbon credit earnings. The production facilities in Shenzhen are ramping-up. I think there is good progress too with the plant in Germany and the plant in Texas.

Hi Kelvin,.. I edited to add another input here after reading your inputs again : To your 4), to your 2nd and 3rd sentences, if you are relating yearly capex size to barriers-of-entry, I'm afraid though having a big capex size may prevent many companies from being able to oarticipate in an industry, this is no more a strong determining criteria in the new-age digital economy, take for example, in ecommerce.

A small company or even an inidividual can behave as a retailer without a shopfront, hence, entering the retail industry, competing with the likes of big retailers. A website is all the small company or the individual needs.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 2 2021, 03:46 PM
TSkelvinlym
post Jan 2 2021, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 2 2021, 03:27 PM)
Tq Kelvin,...

I'll reply to comments 4) and 5).

To 4), everytime a new acct-holder or a member opens a new acct OR a house-owner opens a new acct as a host, ABNB becomes stronger and the barrier-to-entry for competitors become higher. The members of ABNB are very active. ABNB is a key pioneer in the renting-out of individual homes as holiday accommodations. This, in itself, provides first-mover advantage,.. and this first-mover advantage usually creates a barrier-of-entry for the first-mover. 

I agree the capex of ABNB is low, and there is almost negligible hard assets for a business the size of ABNB. Wouldn't this be a good mix ?

To 5), Looking at a business from the opposite end, a dividend-paying business would also signal business performance has been good. Hence, one way I would judge the performance of a business is from the perspective of whether it is paying out a sustainable dividend or not.

Think I'll reply to 3) too, I would reply to part of your statements. Sometimes,.. it is no more necessary today to look at metrics and company performance figures. IPOs and share  price performance are heavily moved by sentiments, and by write-ups of analysts and bloggers out there. Anyway,... having said the last two sentences, ABNB has turned profitable this year.

And TSLA has turned slightly profitable without using carbon credit earnings. The production facilities in Shenzhen are ramping-up. I think there is good progress too with the plant in Germany and the plant in Texas.
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Interesting take on the company.

It's two vastly different companies with vastly different business models, so back to your original question, "Will ABNB be the next TSLA?" In which metric? Market cap? The fanatic fans? The technology leader?

I will be keeping abreast with the news but I am staying out at the moment. I also didn't really invest in TSLA when it IPO'd, only in 2018. I don't think I would have invested that much of my portfolio before 2018 anyway.
Hansel
post Jan 2 2021, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Jan 2 2021, 03:36 PM)
Interesting take on the company.

It's two vastly different companies with vastly different business models, so back to your original question, "Will ABNB be the next TSLA?" In which metric? Market cap? The fanatic fans? The technology leader?

I will be keeping abreast with the news but I am staying out at the moment. I also didn't really invest in TSLA when it IPO'd, only in 2018. I don't think I would have invested that much of my portfolio before 2018 anyway.
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Happy New Year, Kelvin,... good to see you are online too on this second day of a new decade..... biggrin.gif thumbup.gif

I was speaking more on whether : ABNB's share price will take the trajectory of TSLA's share price in the coming years ? I would hope so,... I, too,... have not entered TSLA all this while till August this year, before it split. All these years, I was happy keeping my USDs in FDs, and I've always been a dividend-investor. Being one,... SG REITs and other divvy-paying stocks have been my forte and have formed the base of my portfolio today.

Well,... your entry price would be much better than mine if you entered in 2018. Congrats,.. thumbup.gif


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