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 Hong Kong Exchange & HK Stocks, Per title post-Extradition Bill W/drawal

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TSHansel
post Oct 12 2020, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(MBCH @ Oct 12 2020, 03:10 PM)
But the US can do anything, because ANT operate in China and in some other emergent markets/countries so imo no impact

I´m European and think that Chinese companies will rise a lot especially if Biden win the elections

As i said in the previous post, i will take the advantage of ANT IPO to buy more BABA9988 (Long Term INV)

For trading i think there is a good opportunity with SLD GROUP 2262 for 7% from 0.93 (its only my analysis)
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" But the US can do anything, because ANT operate in China and in some other emergent markets/countries so imo no impact "

There are many articles out there emphasizing on the above,... but we don't know what are ALL the tactics that are available to the US GOvt that we may not know of yet,.. our scope of awareness is but limited only to what we read here and there,...

Biden may or may not win the elections. Even if he does, there is no telling will he just overturn all of Trump's earlier actions towards China,... or,.. will he be able to do it at all,... it's not all up to him. Trump may have placed all his people among the govt engines in the US,... the judiciary, the state dept,... etc,... and these people may just want to continue what Trump started earlier.

Not forgetting that even if Biden wins, the Democrats may not win the 2 Houses too.

Somehow,... I am still of the opinion that the Trade War will not go away just like that if Trump loses.
C-Note
post Oct 12 2020, 03:32 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 12 2020, 02:18 PM)
Derivatives will add another layer of risk to the 3067, but there is no denying that the results from having derivatives can swing either positive or negative in today's world. One things's for sure - when fees are lower, chances for higher returns would be guaranteed from this quality. Fees always eat in to returns.

The US govt does not need to totally ban the HKMA from having access to the USDs - they can always LIMIT this access. Limiting access will have devastating impacts too to HK as a financial hub. and finally,... the latest news from the White House :-

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analysis...NOW.1048112/all

With all sorts of ways that the US is taking to 'block' Ant and HK's progress as a whole,... I'm just thinking and tapping opinions with you guys to see if investing into HK is still a viable option anymore moving fwd.
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If anything I would be more worried about de-listing of Chinese stocks on the NYSE/NASDAQ, should they not comply with regulations in 2 years time. Currently I invest in Chinese stocks only on HKex. The only Chinese(?) stock I have on NYSE is YUMC but that technically is an American brand.

Beijing has been trying really hard to remove its reliance on HK as an economic hub. To do so Beijing has to build more trust in their own exchanges and currency, a difficult process. Just look at all the Chinese companies returning in hordes to the HKEX for secondary listings.

Personally I don't have much confidence in HK's old economy as a whole e.g HSBC 0005.hk where moms and pops used to put their entire fortunes in one stock for the sake of 'safe haven dividends' mega_shok.gif

I reckon US need HK as much as HK need the US. It's a strategic portal to China. The ramifications of breaking the peg is significant.

Then again I'm not a finance grad so please share more opinion on how US could limit this access? The way I see it for the peg to break is HKMA running out of reserves?
MBCH
post Oct 12 2020, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 12 2020, 03:23 PM)
" But the US can do anything, because ANT operate in China and in some other emergent markets/countries so imo no impact "

There are many articles out there emphasizing on the above,... but we don't know what are ALL the tactics that are available to the US GOvt that we may not know of yet,.. our scope of awareness is but limited only to what we read here and there,...

Biden may or may not win the elections. Even if he does, there is no telling will he just overturn all of Trump's earlier actions towards China,... or,.. will he be able to do it at all,... it's not all up to him. Trump may have placed all his people among the govt engines in the US,... the judiciary, the state dept,... etc,... and these people may just want to continue what Trump started earlier.

Not forgetting that even if Biden wins, the Democrats may not win the 2 Houses too.

Somehow,... I am still of the opinion that the Trade War will not go away just like that if Trump loses.
*
Everybody know why Trump start this shit* war , but remember US need China, China need US, and both need the world, the World need them

So, if you think long term, no impact see the US, CH & HK market rising like never, But i believe more in Asia markets as not artificial or boosted like US by the FED




TSHansel
post Oct 12 2020, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(MBCH @ Oct 12 2020, 03:33 PM)
Everybody know why Trump start this shit* war , but remember US need China, China need US, and both need the world, the World need them

So, if you think long term, no impact see the US, CH & HK market rising like never, But i believe more in Asia markets as not artificial or boosted like US by the FED
*
OK,... even if the HK mkt rising, with the US GOvt continuing to suppress a company like Ant, will Ant be able to rise to its fullest potential ?
AVFAN
post Oct 12 2020, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(MBCH @ Oct 12 2020, 03:33 PM)
Everybody know why Trump start this shit* war , but remember US need China, China need US, and both need the world, the World need them

So, if you think long term, no impact see the US, CH & HK market rising like never, But i believe more in Asia markets as not artificial or boosted like US by the FED
*
i kinda agree with u on this.

i do think drump will back off soon enough or he gets booted out anyway. tongue.gif

china's fast recovery may even lead the next global economic wave, leaving some behind!

QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 12 2020, 03:55 PM)
OK,... even if the HK mkt rising, with the US GOvt continuing to suppress a company like Ant, will Ant be able to rise to its fullest potential ?
*
bro, we can't see too far ahead.

things can change very quickly after nov 3.

if one is cautious about HK, one should also be wary about SG, MY, but maybe for diff reasons.

for tech and fintech, i see good things coming for hkex/china.

my 03033 hstech etf turned green today! rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 12 2020, 10:56 PM
MBCH
post Oct 13 2020, 07:48 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 12 2020, 03:55 PM)
OK,... even if the HK mkt rising, with the US GOvt continuing to suppress a company like Ant, will Ant be able to rise to its fullest potential ?
*
Check the ANT net income is from China and Asia ( One Billion Alipay Users) ANT is so big we are talking about 200 billion, it's the world's most highly valued fintech company, and nobody doubt that will reach 1T very soon, some are talking about 2T


MBCH
post Oct 13 2020, 08:03 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 12 2020, 07:31 PM)
i kinda agree with u on this.

i do think drump will back off soon enough or he gets booted out anyway. tongue.gif

china's fast recovery may even lead the next global economic wave, leaving some behind!
bro, we can't see too far ahead.

things can change very quickly after nov 3.

if one is cautious about HK, one should also be wary about SG, MY, but maybe for diff reasons.

for tech and fintech, i see good things coming for hkex/china.

my 03033 hstech etf turned green today!  rclxms.gif
*
if you Trade HKex you need to trade big bro, its a 1000% CASH Machine, also technically and fundamentally clear, so 99% of your trades are and will be accurate, US is the opposite

Congratulation for the SEHK:3033! Look bullish, little Overbought (Only my analysis)





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MBCH
post Oct 13 2020, 08:17 AM

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QUOTE(C-Note @ Oct 12 2020, 03:32 PM)
If anything I would be more worried about de-listing of Chinese stocks on the NYSE/NASDAQ, should they not comply with regulations in 2 years time. Currently I invest in Chinese stocks only on HKex. The only Chinese(?) stock I have on NYSE is YUMC but that technically is an American brand.

Beijing has been trying really hard to remove its reliance on HK as an economic hub. To do so Beijing has to build more trust in their own exchanges and currency, a difficult process. Just look at all the Chinese companies returning in hordes to the HKEX for secondary listings.

Personally I don't have much confidence in HK's old economy as a whole e.g HSBC 0005.hk where moms and pops used to put their entire fortunes in one stock for the sake of 'safe haven dividends'  mega_shok.gif

I reckon US need HK as much as HK need the US. It's a strategic portal to China. The ramifications of breaking the peg is significant.

Then again I'm not a finance grad so please share more opinion on how US could limit this access? The way I see it for the peg to break is HKMA running out of reserves?
*
In my opinion, Chinese Companies are becoming unstoppable, they dont need US, thats why they are investing in Africa and LATAM massively + their already dominance in the Asian Market

Time changed, now the future is Asia, i put a small exemple that resume everything


U.S. goods and services trade with Vietnam totaled an estimated $62.6 billion in 2018. Exports were $12.1 billion; imports were $50.5 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with Vietnam was $38.3 billion in 2018.

https://www.ustradenumbers.com/country/vietnam/

here you can find the Top 10 Trading partners of the US, mostly are from Asia with huge deficit (import/export ratio)

http://www.worldstopexports.com/americas-t...mport-partners/


foofoosasa
post Oct 13 2020, 10:07 AM

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typhoon no 8. Hang Seng Off day today. Damn
Kjk014
post Oct 13 2020, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Oct 13 2020, 10:07 AM)
typhoon no 8. Hang Seng Off day today. Damn
*
off the whole day or will reopen at 1:00 pm?
AVFAN
post Oct 13 2020, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE
China tech stocks seen as a better bet than under-fire US peers

Chinese Internet stocks will keep outperforming their US counterparts in the months ahead as regulatory challenges to America’s technology giants mount in Washington DC and Brussels, according to some investors.

Their reasoning includes expectations that weakening the US megacaps will help bolster the relative attractiveness of Chinese technology companies, which are continuing to invest in areas of growth. Meantime, the growing uncertainty over prospects for the US sector could send buyers to their cheaper Chinese peers which are still being championed by the government in Beijing.

"The structural trend for China tech remains intact,” said Edward Lim, chief investment officer at Covenant Capital Pte. in Singapore. The sector trades on lower valuations and with higher growth prospects than the United States and it faces lesser regulatory risk from its own authorities, he added.

The MSCI China Information Technology Index has risen 45% this year, versus a 32% gain in the Nasdaq Composite. It trades on 27 times 12-month forward earnings, compared to 32 times for its US counterpart.
https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2...r-fire-us-peers

SUSTOS
post Oct 13 2020, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(Kjk014 @ Oct 13 2020, 11:19 AM)
off the whole day or will reopen at 1:00 pm?
*
Off for whole day since the No.8 signal is not discontinued after lunch break.
TSHansel
post Oct 13 2020, 05:27 PM

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Gentlemen, bros,... I appreciated your good opinions,.... they are invaluable for me indeed,...

I might allocate funds for Ant after this. As for those funds which managed to get allocations in their balloting, will the beneficial owners be forced to hold on to the funds without being able to selloff for 18 months, ie a moratorium after Ant has been floated in the HKeX and in the SSE ?

I read something abt this here and there but the prospectus did not mention this.
MBCH
post Oct 14 2020, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 13 2020, 05:27 PM)
Gentlemen, bros,... I appreciated your good opinions,.... they are invaluable for me indeed,...

I might allocate funds for Ant after this. As for those funds which managed to get allocations in their balloting, will the beneficial owners be forced to hold on to the funds without being able to selloff for 18 months, ie a moratorium after Ant has been floated in the HKeX and in the SSE ?

I read something abt this here and there but the prospectus did not mention this.
*
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analysis...NOW.1048524/all
C-Note
post Oct 14 2020, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 12 2020, 03:55 PM)
OK,... even if the HK mkt rising, with the US GOvt continuing to suppress a company like Ant, will Ant be able to rise to its fullest potential ?
*
Close to 96% of Ant's revenue comes from mainland China. The other 4.4% only a small part from US. You need a Chinese bank account to use Alipay in US. The only presence it has is through partnerships with Walgreens to let Chinese tourists in the US pay with Alipay.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/for-trump-ad...-185637574.html
TSHansel
post Oct 14 2020, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(C-Note @ Oct 14 2020, 11:04 AM)
Close to 96% of Ant's revenue comes from mainland China. The other 4.4% only a small part from US. You need a Chinese bank account to use Alipay in US. The only presence it has is through partnerships with Walgreens to let Chinese tourists in the US pay with Alipay.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/for-trump-ad...-185637574.html
*
I am not too sure of ALL available tactics which are in the arsenal of the US Govt,... but I was once with a state delegation to visit the State Dept and met John Boehner. They are very resourceful,...

How abt this : What if The US Govt instructs all their US-based and US-originated merchants NOT to use AliPay payment ?
C-Note
post Oct 14 2020, 09:35 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 14 2020, 04:08 PM)
I am not too sure of ALL available tactics which are in the arsenal of the US Govt,... but I was once with a state delegation to visit the State Dept and met John Boehner. They are very resourceful,...

How abt this : What if The US Govt instructs all their US-based and US-originated merchants NOT to use AliPay payment ?
*
I think China is working hard to be self-sustaining and reliant. Trading with other countries increased, trying to kick out the USA. Only time can tell how that will pan out. It is not going to be an easy road for China for sure.

With 1.4 billion people in China, i doubt that will make any significant impact in the long run. They haven't even captured the entire market yet
TSHansel
post Oct 14 2020, 10:56 PM

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QUOTE(C-Note @ Oct 14 2020, 09:35 PM)
I think China is working hard to be self-sustaining and reliant. Trading with other countries increased, trying to kick out the USA. Only time can tell how that will pan out. It is not going to be an easy road for China for sure.

With 1.4 billion people in China, i doubt that will make any significant impact in the long run. They haven't even captured the entire market yet
*
Tq bro,.. but how abt this scenario. Is this possible ?

What if The US Govt instructs all their US-based and US-originated merchants NOT to use accept payment through AliPay ? This is doable, right ?

Just like the way they managed to compel all regitered financial institutions in the world to make new account-openings complete the Form W8-BEN,... I can name many initiatives that have been ut in-place by the US Govt to 'force' other countries to succumb to their wishes.
C-Note
post Oct 14 2020, 11:20 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 14 2020, 10:56 PM)
Tq bro,.. but how abt this scenario. Is this possible ?

What if The US Govt instructs all their US-based and US-originated merchants NOT to use accept payment through AliPay ? This is doable, right ?

Just like the way they managed to compel all regitered financial institutions in the world to make new account-openings complete the Form W8-BEN,... I can name many initiatives that have been ut in-place by the US Govt to 'force' other countries to succumb to their wishes.
*
I guess this risk is carried by all investments in HK and China, no? laugh.gif that's the inherent issue with investing in the Chinese market. US trying so hard to stab China front back sideways.

There's no denying China is on her way to become the next superpower. Used to be the British empire, then the torch was passed to the USA in the past century. All I can say is don't put all eggs in one basket. Diversification is key. smile.gif
TSHansel
post Oct 14 2020, 11:33 PM

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QUOTE(C-Note @ Oct 14 2020, 11:20 PM)
I guess this risk is carried by all investments in HK and China, no?  laugh.gif that's the inherent issue with investing in the Chinese market. US trying so hard to stab China front back sideways.

There's no denying China is on her way to become the next superpower. Used to be the British empire, then the torch was passed to the USA in the past century. All I can say is don't put all eggs in one basket. Diversification is key. smile.gif
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Tks bro,... appreciated all your opinions,....

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