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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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Krv23490
post Jun 24 2019, 09:33 AM

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Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch

I think this applies if you are not going to retire soon. Since TS started this thread , if you continued DCA during the high volatility, would have made lots of money as we have reached a few ATH since TS started this thread
Krv23490
post Jun 24 2019, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jun 24 2019, 11:05 AM)
I don't think he would hv made loads of money, if he stayed n DCA  Not in Malaysian stock market now anyway. YTD KLCI is flat. So chances are he would lose some dividends. N if he DCA losing mutual funds, he might be underwater due to the fees.

Of course we don't know wht next 6 month brings. But I think Malaysia stock market nowadays need to be nimble, in and out. Not blindly DCA.
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I too stay away from KLCI and only currently holding a few local stocks.

Our TS is quite knowledgable and has foreign investments, even I am a not seasoned investor ,but by constantly buying SP500 or AAXJ will make you good money.

My simple StashAway portfolio is +15% and I started it last November IINM, and top up every week .


Krv23490
post Jun 24 2019, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jun 24 2019, 11:46 AM)
I think you are lucky coz Dec was the bottom of the correction, n now both market are at record highs.

But I also think tht those markets can easily fall 50% or more in a recession.KLCI, not so much, coz we already suck.. 😆

So I hope that Stashaway algo is fast enough if tht happens.. I tried to open a Stashaway account but I wasn't approved coz I hv more than 1 property loans..
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Wa, 50% , I too am looking forward for the recession if it comes, looking to buy some good dividend yielding stocks !

But I have added money in when the markets were at previous ATH as well though, so it all works out for now as SP500 just reached another ATH last week.

Let’s see how the G20 meeting this week goes
Krv23490
post Jun 24 2019, 01:10 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jun 24 2019, 12:54 PM)
Will u hv money at tht point in time tho.. 😂

Buying at top is ok for the US market. Life is not fair, they hv wacko President n their market still go up n up 😆 U try that (buy at tops) in Malaysia, Singapore n HK (China) markets.. U cry.

N even for US, will it continue forever? . the day of reckoning will come one day.. In 2008 SnP fell by more than 60% iirc.
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Yes, I believe I will hehe, yes it will come one day! Don't dump everything inside, stay disciplined and within comfort level.

So you sold everything and holding on cash now ?
Krv23490
post Jun 29 2019, 05:03 PM

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Six months into 2019, the S&P 500 has returned 17%, marking the best first half in more than two decades. Europe’s benchmark has matched the feat. U.S. investment grade corporate bonds are having their strongest year ever.

On Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 was seven points from a bear market, and a stream of Wall Street prognosticators shuffled forth to pronounce the last rites. Since then, the gauge hit a record twice.

“Investors had very low conviction at the start of this year, but those who were brave enough to once again get into risk assets reaped rewards,” said Wouter Sturkenboom, chief investment strategist for EMEA & APAC at Northern Trust Asset Management. “It’s a good lesson for investors not to stay scared for too long.”


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...srnd=markets-vp


Good news from today's meeting as well

This post has been edited by Krv23490: Jun 29 2019, 05:04 PM
Krv23490
post Jul 11 2019, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jul 10 2019, 10:10 PM)
All time highhhhhhhh
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Yea man ! SP500 touch 3000 for the first time. Wanted to sell my AMZN shares before G20 meeting, glad I didn't
Krv23490
post Jul 11 2019, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jul 11 2019, 04:14 PM)
nice choice. Economy is bad but last few month indeed I think oversell. my pick is FB  drool.gif
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I think cant go wrong with FANG, been holding since 750s, bought 1 more share at 1700.

Let's see how it plays out during earnings in a couple of weeks
Krv23490
post Jul 11 2019, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 11 2019, 05:41 PM)
How much equity exposure u have in your investment portfolio atm?
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If just pure equities , 17% US, 13% Malaysian equities. Not counting EQ UT and ETFs
Krv23490
post Jul 11 2019, 07:33 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jul 11 2019, 06:59 PM)
For me I will try avoid Neflix  nod.gif
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Sorry double post, I thought the same last time man, I bought at 100, sold at 110. Everyone said they could not grow anymore and it was way overvalued.

They will be the first to hit and hardest when a downturn hits though
Krv23490
post Jul 11 2019, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 11 2019, 07:39 PM)
If u count?
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I think 40% approximately. . Need to check again, outstation now . What about you ?
Krv23490
post Jul 12 2019, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 12 2019, 09:35 AM)
Knew someone will be asking me that again. Ha.

Like I said before, it depends on the day I compare with, the price and currency are going up and down every week. So cannot say with one answer that I have gained or lost.

I sold mine in Dec, not in Oct. Started this thread in Oct seeking views on the things I might have left out in my analysis.

Will do a numeric comparison on the anniversary of my "dump day" later this year.

Will also do a comparison days after the crash and also 2-3 years later on its recovery. To see how far off I am on my assumptions. No one can make perfect predictions. That is not what I am after. I assumed 50% drop in price in the crash and take 5 years for the price to recover. Even if the drop is only 40%, takes 3 years to recover, I will still be laughing though the overall gain vs doing nothing is smaller.

Look ahead and take action where necessary on big items is my advice.
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'no one can make perfect predictions' hence, more money is lost while waiting for recessions.

This is why people DCA.

So far your prediction wrong cause you kinda sold at the bottom so far.

Lets see how it goes, you will be right eventually , don't know how long it will take only

Singapore just reported worse than expected GDP but the market seems to be not affected, still nicely in the green.


Krv23490
post Jul 12 2019, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 12 2019, 10:45 AM)

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Waiting for you to do the calculation to prove me wrong. But definitely I know if I sold in Dec I would be poorer than I am now . Just looking at one of my counters I am holding , Frontken , Dec was 0.80 cents? Today it is at 1.54. hibiscus . MRCB 0.60 cents today at 0.95. Amazon at 1500, today at 2000 . SPY was around 250 , today it is at 300 (almost a 20% gain YTD) even if the sp500 drop 20% today , we wouldn't be still be far off from a net gain .

Which Peter ? Cant be Peter Lynch as he is the one who coined Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves

Market corrections often cause
investors to abandon their investment
plan, moving out of stocks with the
intention of moving back in when things
seem better—often to disastrous results.

The chart below compares the 20 year
returns of equity investors (S&P 500®
Index) who remained invested over the
entire period to those who missed just
the best 10, 30, 60, or 90 trading days:

• The patient investor who remained
invested during the entire 20 year
period received the highest average
annualized return of 9.2% per year.

• The investor who missed the best 30
trading days over this 20 year period
experienced an investment that
remained flat.

• Amazingly, an investor needed only
to miss the best 60 days for his return
to plummet.

Investors who understand that timing
the market is a loser’s game will be less
prone to reacting to short-term extremes
in the market and more likely to adhere
to their long-term investment plan.

Ha.

Attached is Wisdom of Great Investors By Davis Advisors




Attached File(s)
Attached File  WGI.pdf ( 1.55mb ) Number of downloads: 6
Krv23490
post Jul 12 2019, 12:43 PM

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[quote=plumberly,Jul 12 2019, 11:56 AM]
[quote=Krv23490,Jul 12 2019, 11:04 AM]
Waiting for you to do the calculation to prove me wrong. But definitely I know if I sold in Dec I would be poorer than I am now . Just looking at one of my counters I am holding , Frontken , Dec was 0.80 cents? Today it is at 1.54. hibiscus . MRCB 0.60 cents today at 0.95. Amazon at 1500, today at 2000 . SPY was around 250 , today it is at 300 (almost a 20% gain YTD) even if the sp500 drop 20% today , we wouldn't be still be far off from a net gain .

*** Mine is overseas shares. Currency fluctuation -ve & +ve kick in as well.
*** I did a very quick comparison since you are so eager to know, I am about -2% vs if I did nothing. Like I said earlier, if I did another comparison when the price is lower or the currency is in my favour, then I will be, maybe +2%.
Which Peter ? Cant be Peter Lynch as he is the one who coined Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves

*** I referred to Peter on DCA, not on market timing. Some gurus are anti market timing, due to the fees they incur on shares transactions which take an accumulated big toll on their overall profit.
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[/quote]

Yes, majority of my holdings are overseas as well. SP500 is the best indicator in my opinion . Even with currency fluctuation . Even Singapore REITs up by 18% this year itself(I certainly didn’t expect that)

Well, even with said fees, I profited a lot more from the run up the past few months. You listen to your gurus but are selective based on your own preference. I stuck to what works by not timing the market and DCA and so far have been rewarded. Ha

thumbup.gif


Krv23490
post Jul 12 2019, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 12 2019, 02:24 PM)
Well done so far but since you admit that u only have about 40% Equities exposure then it's actually not such a great performance total portfolio wise.
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Yes I agree, but I am building up my reserve as I have a career promotion coming up , so got training which will last a few months and that means a reduced salary , so I reduced my allocations if you understand what I am going on about


Krv23490
post Jul 13 2019, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 12 2019, 02:24 PM)
Well done so far but since you admit that u only have about 40% Equities exposure then it's actually not such a great performance total portfolio wise.
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This is my up to date holdings


EQ UT 5%
ETF 6%
MSIA EQ 6%
US EQ 15%
SA 2%
EQ PRS 5%

Crypto 2%

Bond Fund 7%

Private Equity 9%

Savings Plan 21%
Cash 22%


Increase in cash recently due as i sold off MRCB , (wanted to get in on UWC on listing day but chicken out [regret now also got] )

Savings plans is a separate program besides PRS and EPF. Managed by external manager . If remove that i think my total equities holding is 56%

Just to share , the managed fund is currently holding

75 % US Treasuries
5% Asian Smaller Companies
6% US Tech
10% Gold
4% China Opportunities
Krv23490
post Jul 13 2019, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jul 13 2019, 12:20 PM)
You have to chill, bro...

I was just having a casual chat about possible crash coming...

Nobody said anything about devising or testing a strategy based on this so called 10 year cycle... u assume yourself and went on to bash market timing and being stubborn .. really “one head of mist”

About market timing ... what’s wrong with having some fun with part of your funds? If u believe in yourself and your method ... u might even surprise yourself ! Otherwise, just treat it as entertainment expense lor... investment is such an interesting game... I am willing to pay for it if I lose..smile.gif but don’t go overboard lah
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I think Boon3's reply is more for TS than you .

Yes, a big part of it is sort of entertainment isn't it
Krv23490
post Jul 16 2019, 11:35 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jul 16 2019, 10:29 PM)
Actually we can quantify you are right or wrong, if you reveal what you sold.

Just like how we track Ramjade's targeted stocks. It is not an argument to agree or disagree. It is all numbers and numbers don't lie.

However, I asked twice and apparently you refused to reveal  biggrin.gif
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+1

he did mentioned few posts ago that he only lost out on 2% ...
Krv23490
post Jul 17 2019, 01:04 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 17 2019, 12:55 PM)
Hmm. Are you saying about me? Look from day one, I came here to discuss the strategy which is a market timing strategy. That's all. Please do not add salt and pepper. Thank you.
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I don't think its you. Totally agreed with you and i have tried to mentioned this so many times to the perma-bears in this thread regarding market timing.So far, TS never really outperform anyone cause anyone who stayed invested who have rode the massive returns from Q1 and Q2.
Krv23490
post Jul 17 2019, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 17 2019, 01:38 PM)
2019 Returns...
Bitcoin: +206% 🔥🚀
Oil $USO: +30%
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +26%
REITs $VNQ: +22%
S&P 500 $SPY: +21%
Small Caps $IWM: +17%
EAFE $EFA: +14%
Investment Grade $LQD: +11%
Commodities $DBC: +11%
EM $EEM: +11%
Gold $GLD: +10%
High Yield $HYG: +10%
Bonds $AGG: +6%
Cash $BIL: +1%

13/7/2019

Bursa aiyoyo. I wonder what is the small/mid cap performance for Bursa though.



Krv23490
post Mar 2 2020, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 2 2020, 11:34 AM)
Hehe.. Dont lock this thread again ya..
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 2 2020, 12:52 PM)
laugh.gif

... also don't change topic either too. tongue.gif

Initial topic was clearing stocks before coming recession. Lolol.
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lol, soon , he lock this thread when bull market.

Next Buying stock before the coming spike. Just lock and unlock each thread when suit timing


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