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 PROPERTY MARKET TO BE BADLY HIT IN 2018, Tekan the greedy sellers to the max!

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pearl_white
post Nov 20 2017, 12:29 PM

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In a worst case senario if a burst does happen, you all needn't worry.

If the market value of the property falls way below the banks valuation / loan valuation and if you cannot have the $$ to make your installments, do not fret.

Banks won't foreclose. It is bad business if they foreclose you and seize your properties. Banks would restructure your loan and require you to pay off the property as it was previously. So, if you were supposed to repay rm500k, banks would make sure you repay it, even if your property price becomes 50k.

Banks will not absorb the risk of
a) lower property price arising from foreclosure
b) having stuck with property as a Non-performing asset.

This can be referenced to the way the country manages NPLs by individuals. There's AKPK. The way this works in M'sia, it that you would have to service your loan till it really finished. You are stuck with the property until you sell it. In any case, the risk is with the owner of the property.

THIS IS DESPITE THAT YOU SIGNED A DEED OF ASSIGNMENT WITH THE BANK. Banks won't enforce it.

In the US subprime, legislation was put through to stop the above-mentioned practice by banks. You can elect yourself to be foreclosed and just dump the property with the banks (complete wash hands)

In any case, you have to do financial due diligence as to whether you should continue to pay the banks or just dump it to the banks.

This post has been edited by pearl_white: Nov 20 2017, 12:30 PM
pearl_white
post Nov 20 2017, 12:45 PM

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BNM's concerned is justifiable. But really, its too late, no matter what is done to stop it from happening. Certain things are just beyond BNM's, Association of Realty M'sia's control.

For years, the biggest players in property development, coincidentally Chinese driven (Mah Sing, SP Setia, Tropicana, Ecoworld, Sime Properties, Sunway etc) have pushed the envelop too far. What is the main business of property developers? Once a project is finished, they have to build more, otherwise how can they justify to be listed in Bursa KL.

2 things you need to bear in mind whether property market will go north or south

1) Chinese driven demand. Chinese population growth has peaked in 2000, and in many countless articles by The Star, Chinese population won't hold 2nd spot in this country for long. Who do you expect to take up the property supply when, god forbid, when rumours have it that 90% of LHDN's annual collection comes from the Chinese? There's less chinese, means less need for properties? Do you think the bumiputera's, indians want to have more properties like the chinese? Do they have the same mindset?

2) M'sia going the automation route, which means industries using manual labour slowly being replaced by machines. Less foreign workers means less demand for properties? Do you know how many foreign workers there are in M'sia? The Star says that legal and illegal foreign workers outnumber the Chinese.

BEANCOUNTER
post Nov 20 2017, 01:04 PM

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QUOTE(pearl_white @ Nov 20 2017, 12:45 PM)
BNM's concerned is justifiable.  But really, its too late, no matter what is done to stop it from happening.  Certain things are just beyond BNM's, Association of Realty M'sia's control.

For years, the biggest players in property development, coincidentally Chinese driven (Mah Sing, SP Setia, Tropicana, Ecoworld, Sime Properties, Sunway etc) have pushed the envelop too far.  What is the main business of property developers?  Once a project is finished, they have to build more, otherwise how can they justify to be listed in Bursa KL.

2 things you need to bear in mind whether property market will go north or south

1)  Chinese driven demand.  Chinese population growth has peaked in 2000, and in many countless articles by The Star, Chinese population won't hold 2nd spot in this country for long.  Who do you expect to take up the property supply when, god forbid, when rumours have it that 90% of LHDN's annual collection comes from the Chinese?  There's less chinese, means less need for properties?  Do you think the bumiputera's, indians want to have more properties like the chinese?  Do they have the same mindset?

2) M'sia going the automation route, which means industries using manual labour slowly being replaced by machines.  Less foreign workers means less demand for properties?  Do you know how many foreign workers there are in M'sia?  The Star says that legal and illegal foreign workers outnumber the Chinese.
*
cina population stands at 22%. even at 30mio population, the figure is still over 6mio.

legal and illegal workers are at approx. 4mio (excluding short term illegal workers). Outnumber is a big call.

but the reduction of cina population is a fact. More severe for next generation. Cina still have good times for the next 20 to 30yrs.

on the earlier part.......DBKL dishes out apdl like toilet papers, and dbkl is under fed gov control. wont fed gov take the blame too????? why put the blame on private developers?

same with Iskandar region. without state and fed support....you think private developers can magically built these ghost cities?
David_77
post Nov 20 2017, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(R o Y @ Nov 20 2017, 12:00 PM)
Below is the JPPH link to download the NAPIC 2017 H2 report:

http://napic.jpph.gov.my/portal/web/guest/...leUploadId=5087

I would like to share the tables below, so you may determine for yourself if its all doom and gloom, or if the market has bottomed:

user posted image

user posted image

Above shows the transacted value data for the past 6 quarters (Q1 2016 - Q2 2017) for KL and Malaysia. I have highlighted the Residential Data since that's what most of us are concerned about here

JPPH data shows that KL Property market has already been in recovery since Q4 2016

H1 2017 vs H1 2016 shows an increase in transacted value of 19%

All the recent news on the report has only looked at the overall Malaysia picture. None that I've seen so far have highlighted the recovery for KL market. If you talk to any active Agent or REN covering KL area, the KL figures wont come as a surprise. We've already experienced the recovery happening this year

Unfortunately, the rest of the states still flat or dropping. However they may start to follow KL's trend soon

I believe some are still adopting a "wait-and-see" attitude for their property purchase hoping that prices will drop further next year. If planing to buy somewhere in KL, then perhaps shouldn't wait any longer
*
While overall (for residential) looks good but to derive conclusion from the genral overview is too simplistic.

After all, we only have very limited bullets to buy certain type of residential unit and in certain areas.

Would be good if more breakdown is provided (i.e. landed/condo/apartment; leasehold/freehold/; mixed-development?; areas etc).


hummels
post Nov 20 2017, 01:19 PM

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This is a good sign actually...let the power of the market dictate property prices...demand and supply is the motto of the day..those greedy developers should not go and cry to gov because not able to sell units...and the gov should not help them...let the consumer decide prices...it is the best time to boycott greedy developers...
R o Y
post Nov 20 2017, 01:25 PM

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QUOTE(Afro100 @ Nov 20 2017, 12:59 PM)
In what price segment, is the property market in kl making gains?

Last i heard 500k-1mil  segment was not doing well, >1mil is doing ok, i guess that was what contribute to the increased in transacted value?
*
On JPPH the detailed state by state report is only available for Q1 2017

Since number of transacted residential units in KL was still pretty flat, while value increased significantly, its probably does mean the percentage of higher value transactions has increased. However I believe both 500k-1m and above 1m doing well, but the above 1m recovery has been relatively stronger
icemanfx
post Nov 20 2017, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(pearl_white @ Nov 20 2017, 12:29 PM)
In a worst case senario if a burst does happen, you all needn't worry.

If the market value of the property falls way below the banks valuation / loan valuation and if you cannot have the $$ to make your installments, do not fret.

Banks won't foreclose.  It is bad business if they foreclose you and seize your properties.  Banks would restructure your loan and require you to pay off the property as it was previously.  So, if you were supposed to repay rm500k, banks would make sure you repay it, even if your property price becomes 50k.

Banks will not absorb the risk of
a) lower property price arising from foreclosure
b) having stuck with property as a Non-performing asset.

This can be referenced to the way the country manages NPLs by individuals.  There's AKPK.  The way this works in M'sia, it that you would have to service your loan till it really finished.  You are stuck with the property until you sell it.  In any case, the risk is with the owner of the property.

THIS IS DESPITE THAT  YOU SIGNED A DEED OF ASSIGNMENT WITH THE BANK.  Banks won't enforce it.

In the US subprime, legislation was put through to stop the above-mentioned practice by banks.  You can elect yourself to be foreclosed and just dump the property with the banks (complete wash hands)

In any case, you have to do financial due diligence as to whether you should continue to pay the banks or just dump it to the banks.
*
MFRS 9 won't allow banks to sweep npl/stage 3 under the carpet and likely to expedite recovery i.e foreclosure process. unless the gomen to instruct agency like prokhas to take over toxic assets from banks.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 20 2017, 03:57 PM
BEANCOUNTER
post Nov 20 2017, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(Afro100 @ Nov 20 2017, 02:22 PM)
So i guess, while yty transacted value increases, the growth is still not up to expectation yet and this won’t address the oversupply issue in KL.

Judging by the chart, the no of transactions dropped but the overall value increased, hence highlighting the issue of affordability once again, which means only select few can afford them.

Average kl  household gross income is barely 9.7k per month.
I think a majority of them won’t be able to afford property worth over 1 mil.
*
1mio home is not meant for majority of KV residents.

gov has been encouraging affordable housing for majority population.

David_77
post Nov 20 2017, 04:45 PM

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LOL! Malaysia Boleh rclxms.gif

Everyone can rilek now.

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 20): In an apparent U-turn over a freeze on approvals for luxury property developments, Putrajaya on Monday (Nov 20) said the green light for such projects will still be given but on a case-by-case basis.

Works Minister Datuk Fadillah Yusof said although the decision was taken by the Cabinet following a recent report by Malaysia’s central bank on an oversupply of high-end properties, the freeze does not involve all projects.

“This is not a blanket stop order… The government is (instead) sending a message to developers to study whether there will be (sufficient demand for a project) before they decide (to proceed),” he said.

“If you sell RM1 million (S$326,000) condo (units) located in (unattractive) areas, it may not attract buyers. But if you sell RM4 million condominiums around the Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre (KLCC) area, you will definitely get buyers, especially among expatriates,” he said in reference to the prime real estate area in the middle of the capital city.

Mr Fadhillah believed being selective in approving high-end real estate developments will help address the country’s property glut in the luxury segment.

His comments come a day after his cabinet colleague, Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani, said Putrajaya has temporarily frozen approvals for luxury property developments since Nov 1 due to a glut in the sector.

The temporary freeze affects shopping malls as well as commercial and residential developments which sell units at RM1 million (S$326,000) and above.

“This will be in place until we clear all the excess supply,” said Mr Johari on Sunday.

“There is a stark imbalance between supply and demand and we have to review the strategy in terms of real estate development as we do not want such situation to adversely affect the economy.”

In its report, the central bank warned that Malaysia’s property market is facing an oversupply of non-affordable homes and idle commercial space, while demand for affordable housing is not being met.

There were 130,690 unsold units at the end of March this year, with 83% priced at above RM250,000. Sixty one percent of the unsold properties comprise of high-rise apartments.

The central bank pointed out Johor has the largest share of unsold residential units, followed by Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Penang.

“This situation could worsen if the current supply-demand conditions persist. Within the country, Johor is poised to have the largest property market imbalances (highest number of unsold residential properties and potentially the largest excess supply of retail space).

“As such, it is timely for all parties to act now to mitigate any potential risks to macroeconomic and financial stability,” online news portal Malaysiakini quoted the central bank as saying.

Last Friday (Nov 17) central bank governor Tan Sri Muhammad Ibrahim said imbalances in the property market posed significant risks to the country’s economy.

Allaying concerns, Mr Johari said the government will continue to drive the development of affordable homes, specifically those priced below RM300,000 each, which were in short supply.

He said demand for affordable homes stood at 48% while supply is only at 28%.

Following the central bank’s report, the Johor state government is considering to relax restrictions on foreign home ownership to reduce the glut of unsold properties in the state.

Currently, foreigners can only buy houses priced at over RM1 million.The southern state is also mulling giving incentives to developers to encourage them to build properties between RM150,000 and RM400,000, said housing and local government executive councillor Md Jais Sarday.

“Maybe we can look at relaxing the requirements based on the size of the houses. We need to come up with a mechanism to address these issues,” The Star Online quoted him as saying.

Source: http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/utur...ls-not-absolute
brother love
post Nov 20 2017, 04:51 PM

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Just stop build all poperties for 3 years
Nikmon
post Nov 20 2017, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(R o Y @ Nov 20 2017, 12:00 PM)
Below is the JPPH link to download the NAPIC 2017 H2 report:

http://napic.jpph.gov.my/portal/web/guest/...leUploadId=5087

I would like to share the tables below, so you may determine for yourself if its all doom and gloom, or if the market has bottomed:

user posted image

user posted image

Above shows the transacted value data for the past 6 quarters (Q1 2016 - Q2 2017) for KL and Malaysia. I have highlighted the Residential Data since that's what most of us are concerned about here

JPPH data shows that KL Property market has already been in recovery since Q4 2016

H1 2017 vs H1 2016 shows an increase in transacted value of 19%

All the recent news on the report has only looked at the overall Malaysia picture. None that I've seen so far have highlighted the recovery for KL market. If you talk to any active Agent or REN covering KL area, the KL figures wont come as a surprise. We've already experienced the recovery happening this year

Unfortunately, the rest of the states still flat or dropping. However they may start to follow KL's trend soon

I believe some are still adopting a "wait-and-see" attitude for their property purchase hoping that prices will drop further next year. If planing to buy somewhere in KL, then perhaps shouldn't wait any longer
*
the total volume of transaction has been dropped 22% and value of transaction dropped 19% from the peak at year 2014

to early to say it is in recover mode..


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LYNshop
post Nov 20 2017, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(brother love @ Nov 20 2017, 04:51 PM)
Just stop build all poperties for 3 years
*
this guy always makes sense, have to stop or at least slow it down 90% blink.gif
always play sticker games during launching , dam funny.
Clement1001
post Nov 20 2017, 05:48 PM

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Government supposes to build quality community area, instead of quantity! Kick out those DBKL top post who approve all the high dense per acre without consideration of the existing community.

government should Build more public taman and public buildings.
ManutdGiggs
post Nov 20 2017, 07:33 PM

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http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/utur...ls-not-absolute

Dun argue. It's back now. U turn kononnya
Nikmon
post Nov 20 2017, 07:56 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Nov 20 2017, 07:33 PM)
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/utur...ls-not-absolute

Dun argue. It's back now. U turn kononnya
*
good move
sosobear
post Nov 20 2017, 08:32 PM

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This bubble and ghost city will come from southern Johor- which rely heavily on foreign investors.
BEANCOUNTER
post Nov 20 2017, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(Clement1001 @ Nov 20 2017, 05:48 PM)
Government supposes to build quality community area, instead of quantity! Kick out those DBKL top post who approve all the high dense per acre without consideration of the existing community.

government should Build more public taman and public buildings.
*
dbkl or wilayah is under jibby lah.........
myhouse
post Nov 20 2017, 11:18 PM

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So its ok to buy new launches?
sosobear
post Nov 20 2017, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(myhouse @ Nov 20 2017, 11:18 PM)
So its ok to buy new launches?
*
klang valley still ok la... but will have to do a lot of research. Not like last time you buy any property will make money... Now supply is more than demand, only the most competitive has more advantages. Wrong one move will end up stuck for many many years.
LYNshop
post Nov 20 2017, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(myhouse @ Nov 20 2017, 11:18 PM)
So its ok to buy new launches?
*
If its to invest and earn quick bucks during vp, better to get those outside KL.

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