张仰荣预测大马或重演金融危机 短期内勿投资房产
全国
2012-10-12 08:31 南洋商報


张仰荣：屋价有如金价及股价，会涨也会跌。

何振顺： 研究基础建设趋势可发现许多商机。

全国房产投资讲座吸引许多有兴趣者参与。


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（八打灵再也11日讯）正当人们纷纷看好房产领域前景，认为目前是投资房产的最佳时机，赞美主公司特许调查及调解人张仰荣博士提出警告，指大马最近一两年将重演1997年亚洲金融危机，建议人们在3至5年内最好不要投资房产。
他预测，我国将在2012年至2013年重演1997年亚洲金融危机，这次灾情将比1997年严重。
“1997年，欧美经济并不受影响，我们仍然可以出口，但现在欧美经济也放缓，因此这次将比当年更严重。”
他说，目前房地产领域就如“仅剩一格油的火箭”，需求已逐渐放缓。
年轻人没能力负担
“现在的年轻人不会想买屋，因为根本没有能力负担。
“即使有能力购买屋子，也没法每个月定期偿还房贷，反之，选择还一个月，停两个月，因为若连续3个月没还，将被列入不良贷款（NPL），唯有用这种方式偿还房贷。”
张仰荣今天在全国房产投资峰会上说，除非有多余的钱，否则绝对不应向银行贷款投资房产。
“购买房产可分为3项目的；自己住、投资、投机。若是自己住，又有能力负担便可购买，若为了投资或投机，我奉劝你不要购买。”
他也劝发展商在未来12个月重新规划业务，把重心放在租借，勿再进行新项目。
可考虑加叻大道邻近房产
张仰荣指出，若有余钱想投资房产，可以考虑加叻大道附近地区，文冬、劳勿都是不错的选择。
“不要再妄想购买城市房产，上述地点在未来都有发展潜能。”
他说，无可否认，房产仍然是个前景看俏的领域，但不能期望一夜致富。
5年内房产将跌价
“就长期而言，房产仍然是一项好投资，无论如何，未来3至5年房产价格将下跌。”张仰荣也不认为赛城及依斯干达特区是值得投资的地点。
“一个值得投资的地点必须拥有就业机会，赛城的人口并不足够支撑屋价。
“依斯干达特区主要买家是新加坡人，那里是他们的‘周末家’，星期日很多房子都空置。”
银行提高房贷顶限 致房屋需求量激增
屋价高涨，银行、父母、发展商、房产代理及卖家都必须负责！
张仰荣说，银行不断提高房贷顶限，从1960年代的60%提高至目前的90%。
“贷款额越高，偿还期限也更长，若发生意外，下一代必须背负这笔贷款。”
他说，银行调高贷款额也导致房屋需求量激增，当供不应求时，发展商就会开提高屋价。
他说，发展商为了赚取更高利润，将工程分阶段推出，而每个阶段的价格也跟着调涨。
“事实上，每个阶段推出的工程成本都相同，发展商只为了赚取更高的利润。”
此外，他说一些代理向卖家保证可以以更高价格出售房产，而贪心的卖家往往也倾向更高的回筹，这些都是造成屋价攀升的原因。
他说，就目前的屋价而言，即使父母有能力为孩子支付屋子头期，孩子也未必有能力供。
“家长们必须用脑思考，而非用心思考，如果你的孩子没有能力偿还每个月的房贷，请不要帮他们支付头期。”
80%人民没能力购屋
屋价居高不下，目前大马80%人民没能力购买屋子。
张仰荣赞美主公司特许调查及调解人张仰荣博士说，这是大马房产领域目前面对的困境。

Go to google search for this guy, negative guy that all.

I think he burnt his hands in property and earned his bro science.

Property guru such as Faizul uses napic statistics a lot. It still shows growth which surprises me. Do u observe that is it the case?

500k to 300k? dream on la he thinks hes fortune teller? is he filthy rich then? if hes not ill take this with plenty of salt. economics is not science even experts do not know what they are talkinf about.

my meaning is 95% of the available projects. Probably even lesser. Of 100 proejct only 5 investment grade.

From your POV, it depends how u intepret it.
1. If all investor buy that 5%, chances of making money is higher.
2. If all investor, buy the rest of it, lower likeliness of making money
3. If some bought the 5%, some bought the rest, then, those who bought the investment grade ones hv a higher likelihood of making money / making more money lo

Bagus Propertybuddy

Even got 5% investable properties....how many of 5% can we afford to buy to invest?

Statistic will remain statistic. Same like accounting, you can do a lot of magic.

Do you believe inflation is actually 3-4%? What about the chiefs still say that it is a perception that MY crime rate is high and it is safe to walk on the street at night?

Of course, if the data comes from a trust-able source.

This post has been edited by Sand Dust: Nov 14 2017, 11:31 PM

Ya lo.

Amint la. Kochi la. Malugibbs la. Showtime la etc etc. Saying all tume is good time to buy n property price uuu.

Now all missing in action.

Most likely some jobless now.

Just simply quote one statement to verify....

Wonder how does this Dr arrive to say property price from 500k to 300k?
Is there is statistical prediction model to derive until 300k? If the formula is a secret, then can share what the recipes are (jpph data? etc) and a graph to show a down trend pattern to 300k.... ?

This is just one of my many questions...

parking

government needs to do something to improve situation

Sin Ka lan guy ...

Yes, by introducing more rumahwip, rumah selangorku, pr1ma, ppa1m, etc.

Wonder where are those migrants, new birth, school leavers, divorcees, etc that are supposed to take up all these unsold units?

Keeping vacant unit be it developer or flipper incur cost e.g. bank interest rate, opportunity cost, service change, cukai pintu, etc. those who have cash flow to sustain may try to add extra cost to asking price. those who doesn't, pressure could be unbearable.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 15 2017, 01:38 AM

In 2013 he said we are "heading to a property bubble":



3 years later in 2016, he said:


http://property360online.com/scary-truth-affordability/

So if the market was "HEADING" in 2013....

and the market has "BURST" in 2016...

how come real estate prices only going to drop drastically 2 years later in 2018?

Shouldn't the market have gone thru a drastic price correction in 2016 - 2017?

By the way, Bangsar Terrace houses are now 1.6m-2m depending on location and condition. So anyone who sold their bangsar house in 2013 would have missed out on about 25% capital appreciation over the past 5 years.

Another view.

PETALING JAYA: Real estate players say its unlikely that the property market will take a “terrible hit” in 2018 as predicted by property expert Ernest Cheong.

They said that the “facts and figures” pointed to a less negative outlook.

Yesterday, Cheong, a real estate veteran, said 2018 looked to be a tough year as developers and homeowners would find it hard to find buyers, and this could lead to a crash as consumers did not have the financial power to own homes.

Cheong had said this in the wake of Deputy Finance Minister Lee Chee Leong’s revelation that unsold completed residential units rose by 40% to 20,807 units in the first half of 2017 compared with the same period last year.

Henry Butcher Malaysia chief operating officer Tang Chee Meng told FMT that although the market was sluggish and that the stock of unsold houses could possibly increase in 2018, some projects priced under RM500,000, as well as those above that price range in popular locations, were still enjoying good take-up rates.

“So for anyone to say that the market will crash next year is a bit too pessimistic,” said Tang, adding it was important to note that the numbers didn’t paint such a bleak scenario.

For one, he said Malaysia’s economy was projected to grow between 5.0% and 5.5% next year. He also said there had not been any major retrenchment exercises, compared with a couple of years ago, when thousands in the aviation, oil and gas and finance industries lost their jobs.

Tang also pointed out that there had not been a significant rise in nonperforming loans (NPLs) or a substantial rise in foreclosed properties put up for auction.

“NPLs will go up only if borrowers are facing financial difficulties in servicing their loans and this will only happen if their businesses go bust or if they lose their jobs.”

But based on the latest economic data available, Tang said the employment situation, as well as the outlook for the business sector, did not appear to be so negative. This, he said, should provide overall confidence to investors and should support a stable property market.

He added that a number of developers had refocused their attention on the affordable homes segment, which should continue to enjoy stable growth in 2018, and that this would help developers overcome the sluggish market.

Tang also said some investors could also be holding back their purchases pending the outcome of the next general election (GE14).

Prices unlikely to drop

Meanwhile, the Penang Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association’s immediate chairman, Jerry Chan, said it was unlikely that developers would drop their prices unless they were in financial trouble.

“But, most developers have been around for some time, had a good run and would’ve anticipated the current market slowdown. So I don’t think they have their backs against the wall.”

Chan told FMT the reality was that developers couldn’t afford to bring prices down because their margins were low, and would be more likely to change their products to meet the market’s requirements rather than just drop prices.

“You will see developers maybe making smaller units or putting less finishings. We can only lower prices if the authorities lower compliance costs such as levies, taxes and affordable housing requirements.”

In the past, some property experts had pointed out that forcing private developers to build affordable housing units, which were sold below market rate, would only force them to increase the prices of their other projects to cover the losses.

Chan said that the demand for housing would continue to persist and that consumers would always find ways to buy a home, whether through finding additional income sources or lowering their expectations of a home.

“I don’t see prices dropping more than they already have. When the market was at its peak, some developers set ridiculous prices and when the market slowed down, they dropped their prices a bit.

“But does this really mean that they dropped their real prices or merely slashed their inflated prices?”

He also dismissed the likelihood of a crash in 2018, citing strong exports, returning investor confidence, and the lack of mass retrenchments.

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...h.v3VbVaSw.gbpl

I smell these smart ah beng hiding in the wharf

🤕

where everyone bought bcuz of the hype of the mall and other skl factors... now bcum negro nest.... hiding behind undetectable...