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Coup De Grace
post Jun 8 2017, 08:46 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 8 2017, 08:34 AM)
Election themed stock is way too over rated.

Point me, over the past years/elections ..... just one stock that made it great during pre-election  biggrin.gif
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QUOTE
Utusan Melayu (M) Bhd
Currently, political parties and politicians hold few direct stakes in Utusan Melayu, which is 49.77% owned by Umno.
Historically, the Umno directly-owned newspaper publisher has saw its share price shot up during the run up to the election.
In 2013, Utusan share price went up by 8.54% to 63.5 sen on May 3, the last trading day before polling day on May 5. Post-election, its shares shot up to 75 sen, up 18% between May 3 and May 22, 2013.

Media Prima Bhd

It easily dominates the free-to-air television segment of the media industry and certain to be a beneficiary of general election.
Media Prima controls several television networks, newspapers and radio stations and has politically linked shareholders. The EPF has a 13.22% stake in Media Prima while Amanah Raya Bhd has 11.09%.
In 2013, the media company saw its share price went up post-election. Its share price rose 11.8% to RM1.99 a day after the election and subsequently, rose to RM2.44 on May 28, 2013.

KUB Malaysia Bhd
A diversified government-linked company, KUB is one stock that has remained range bound in its trading during the past general election. Its shares rose 11.3% to 39.5 sen a day after polling in 2013 but has remained subdued since then.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...fijCDweIOKdS.99
This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: Jun 8 2017, 08:47 AM
TSBoon3
post Jun 8 2017, 09:19 AM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 8 2017, 08:46 AM)
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Don't rely on articles such as this or analysts reports la.

Don't be lazy. Do it your own.

console.gif

I can't CAN straight away tell you the one who wrote that article is simply cherry picking.

laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jun 8 2017, 09:48 AM
Coup De Grace
post Jun 8 2017, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 8 2017, 09:19 AM)
Don't rely on articles such as this or analysts reports la.

Don't be lazy. Do it your own.

console.gif

I can't straight away tell you the one who wrote that article is simply cherry picking.

laugh.gif
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Tenaga before and after 13th general election?
Attached Image
TSBoon3
post Jun 8 2017, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 8 2017, 09:46 AM)
Tenaga before and after 13th general election?
Attached Image
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there was a typo in my earlier reply..

Anyway....

QUOTE
On 10 April 2013, the Election Commission of Malaysia announced that nominations for election candidates would be held on 20 April, with the general election set for 5 May. The early voting date of 30 April was also announced by the Election Commission.
So the election was announced on 10 April 2013. What would have been the best strategy?
Buy before (like early in the year) ? Or buy after the dates was announced? Or buy the last trading day before polling? rolleyes.gif

And when would you sell?


TSBoon3
post Jun 8 2017, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 8 2017, 09:46 AM)
Tenaga before and after 13th general election?
Attached Image
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Oh. You used the chart of Tenaga.

I shall say I STRONGLY disagree.

Oh yeah, the chart was very the canton then but have you done the extra work and check out Tenaga's earnings performance then?
Coup De Grace
post Jun 8 2017, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 8 2017, 10:35 AM)
Oh. You used the chart of Tenaga.

I shall say I STRONGLY disagree.

Oh yeah, the chart was very the canton then but have you done the extra work and check out Tenaga's earnings performance then?
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Attached Image

30nov12 quarter showed a huge jumps in profits. Maybe be a driver for the price after that period

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Why do u disagree?

2 Jan - 6.9
9 April - 7.62
10 April - 7.70
11 April - 7.78
6 May - Jump up to 8.17 after election

When to buy? Maybe 23 Jan when they announced good results
When to Sell? Maybe after it announced -50% Quarter yoy for May 2015

This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: Jun 8 2017, 11:36 AM
TSBoon3
post Jun 8 2017, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 8 2017, 11:26 AM)
Attached Image

30nov12 quarter showed a huge jumps in profits. Maybe be a driver for the price after that period

Attached Image

Why do u disagree?

2 Jan - 6.9
9 April - 7.62
10 April - 7.70
11 April - 7.78
6 May - Jump up to 8.17 after election

When to buy? Maybe 23 Jan when they announced good results
When to Sell? Maybe after it announced -50% Quarter yoy for May 2015
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laugh.gif

Sorry England was out.

I disagree simply because it was an earnings driven stock (and not election theme stock).

So back to those stocks you highlighted on the star newspaper la

Apa macam? You have not answered the issues I raised.

whistling.gif

viex
post Jun 8 2017, 11:52 AM

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Just curious.
Why day traders and stock speculators like to call themselves investors when they are obviously not?
Why need to call a dog, a cat?
TSBoon3
post Jun 8 2017, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(viex @ Jun 8 2017, 11:52 AM)
Just curious.
Why day traders and stock speculators like to call themselves investors when they are obviously not?
Why need to call a dog, a cat?
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laugh.gif

Why no ask black dog and brown dog?
Coup De Grace
post Jun 8 2017, 12:17 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 8 2017, 11:49 AM)
laugh.gif

Sorry England was out.

I disagree simply because it was an earnings driven stock (and not election theme stock).

So back to those stocks you highlighted on the star newspaper la

Apa macam? You have not answered the issues I raised.

whistling.gif
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I guess based on these stocks, if one wants to punt, is the buy on the last trading day before polling and sell few weeks after volume goes down

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This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: Jun 8 2017, 12:18 PM
TSBoon3
post Jun 8 2017, 12:24 PM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 8 2017, 12:17 PM)
I guess based on these stocks, if one wants to punt, is the buy on the last trading day before polling and sell few weeks after volume goes down

Attached Image
Attached Image
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But that's simply cherry picking.

And with past data, so easy to be good.

Take the utusan example. The author highlighted the high of May. But if he used May end data, the performance would be very average only.

And if a punter bought Utusan on any other random date...punter might even lose money.
Coup De Grace
post Jun 8 2017, 02:56 PM

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DRBHCOM

Atrocious earnings. Negative profits for the financial year march 2017
Attached Image

Chart looks ok though this year
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Looks like strategic partnership with Geely has attracted buying interests in DRBHCOM inspite of the bad earnings this year. However some analysts are pessimistic about this partnership:
QUOTE
Outlook. The recently announced binding heads of agreement with Geely as Porton strategic partnership put DRB on a better footing. While Geely is more popularly known for its successful acquisition of Volvo, we are sceptical on its ability to assist Proton from a technical and marketing perspective as well as to penetrate new markets given that Geely is also a relatively weak brand from a global perspective with a global market share of <5%. Proton still has to deal with the challenges posed by increasing competition and a weak brand perception. The outlook for DRB remains challenging given the tough operating environment of lower sales of motor vehicles amidst stiff competition.


This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: Jun 8 2017, 02:57 PM
Coup De Grace
post Jun 8 2017, 03:02 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 8 2017, 12:24 PM)
But that's simply cherry picking.

And with past data, so easy to be good.

Take the utusan example. The author highlighted the high of May. But if he used May end data, the performance would be very average only.

And if a punter bought Utusan on any other random date...punter might even lose money.
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I guess it is a high risk high return type of punting. Cherry picking stocks that shot up for few weeks after polling day 2013, and buy the same stocks just before this year polling assuming that history will repeat itself.

For utusan example, I think timing is key cause it is a lousy stock
TSBoon3
post Jun 8 2017, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 8 2017, 03:02 PM)
I guess it is a high risk high return type of punting. Cherry picking stocks that shot up for few weeks after polling day 2013, and buy the same stocks just before this year polling assuming that history will repeat itself.

For utusan example, I think timing is key cause it is a lousy stock
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Yes. Key word is still LOUSY STOCK. tongue.gif


See I could cherry pick a bad example for Media Prima from that Star Article.

Early April 2013, I might chase the stock on breakout and purchase on 8th April. Maybe bought at the high 2.05.
(Why chase on the 8th? Well inside info ma... cos the polling was announced on the 10th April)

On 3 May, the last trading day, Media Prima, was sliding ever since....
It hit a low of 1.71. Down 34 sen.

what would a punter do then?
Media Prima wo...
Heavily linked politically....

Cut loss or not?


See? I cherry picked the trading...... and showed you the worst possible scenario.... whistling.gif



Dude, we can use other election years data also.
There's NO conclusive signs that says it is profitable to make trades on election themes laa...


icon_rolleyes.gif



TSBoon3
post Jun 8 2017, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 8 2017, 03:02 PM)
I guess it is a high risk high return type of punting. Cherry picking stocks that shot up for few weeks after polling day 2013, and buy the same stocks just before this year polling assuming that history will repeat itself.

For utusan example, I think timing is key cause it is a lousy stock
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Yet to see the high return.

whistling.gif
Coup De Grace
post Jun 8 2017, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 8 2017, 03:49 PM)
Yet to see the high return.

whistling.gif
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The only thing constant for the 3 stocks mentioned is the gap up after polling day and uptrend for 1-3 weeks. Based on 2013 data, the right time is to buy at the last trading day before the polling day.

Risk is history may not repeat itself this year or Opposition wins this GE


TSBoon3
post Jun 8 2017, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 8 2017, 03:55 PM)
The only thing constant for the 3 stocks mentioned is the gap up after polling day and uptrend for 1-3 weeks. Based on 2013 data, the right time is to buy at the last trading day before the polling day.

Risk is history may not repeat itself this year or Opposition wins this GE
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Well. Check back other reports in 2013.
Look at what these media and analysts where suggesting.
'Election theme' suggestions was early as 2012.... whistling.gif


If you play the market long enough....
it's all the same la....

christmas rally....
Raya rally....
CNY rally....
New Year rally....
Depavali rally.....

all also they suggest one....

any how.. any way also can say out one....

laugh.gif

Coup De Grace
post Jun 8 2017, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 8 2017, 04:00 PM)
Well. Check back other reports in 2013.
Look at what these media and analysts where suggesting.
'Election theme' suggestions was early as 2012.... whistling.gif
If you play the market long enough....
it's all the same la....

christmas rally....
Raya rally....
CNY rally....
New Year rally....
Depavali rally.....

all also they suggest one....

any how.. any way also can say out one....

laugh.gif
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Wow, so many rallies this year. All those above and GE rally, MYR rally, Bank rally, and Corporate Restructure Rally in the news flex.gif

I need to do my revision on what were reported before by analysts during 2013
TSBoon3
post Jun 8 2017, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 8 2017, 04:18 PM)
Wow, so many rallies this year. All those above and GE rally, MYR rally, Bank rally, and Corporate Restructure Rally in the news flex.gif

I need to do my revision on what were reported before by analysts during 2013
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Concentrate on the good stocks la.
That way no need scare if Kambing Rally no come. tongue.gif
hehe86
post Jun 8 2017, 04:23 PM

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I should avoid stocks with high PE like >50 right? Like today a limit up stock...

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