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TSBoon3
post Aug 15 2018, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Aug 15 2018, 02:52 PM)
when 2008 happened, i read that the market was optimistic too  tongue.gif
*
Actually it's very good to be optimistic. biggrin.gif

Especially when it comes to setting personal goals... flex.gif flex.gif
It's without a doubt that we need to set good, optimistic targets on what we want to achieve in life... flex.gif

But when it comes to stocks...
being a bit cautious and realistic in our risk assessments is always good.



Take for example, today's top volume penny (what else is new.. tongue.gif ) stock...

The stock is hit hard after an obviously poor set of earnings...

Question is ... should we ever be caught in a situation like this in the first place?
Did we evaluate our risk properly?

Take for example, if we compare the earnings trend vs the stock price trend...

user posted image

As you can see above, the earnings trend HAD BEEN DOWN for quite sometime already...
meaning to say, yesterday shitty earnings WASN'T UNEXPECTED...

BUT look at the 3 month stock trend on the right of the above screenshot...

The stock used to be trading around 20+ sen...
It was above 44 sen yesterday??

rolleyes.gif





TSBoon3
post Aug 15 2018, 06:20 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Aug 15 2018, 05:26 PM)
Maybe the greater fool theory at play here
*
Maybe...

I think most important we learn how to manage our risks.
TSBoon3
post Aug 15 2018, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Aug 15 2018, 05:37 PM)
Well not so fast, probably until the end of May.

But so far i glance through the earnings are improving.......

Those on my watchlist havent release their QR yet  biggrin.gif

The best is yet to come.
*
Yes, there are a few spots of improvement here and there but then the market is pricing them so optimistically.... wink.gif
TSBoon3
post Aug 17 2018, 11:16 AM

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History...

https://money.cnn.com/2016/07/07/news/econo...wley/index.html
TSBoon3
post Aug 17 2018, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(FirdausNajib324 @ Aug 8 2018, 07:33 PM)
So how did your trading go with your ideas?

Made any review of your success/failures?

Repetition of success flex.gif rclxm9.gif

Avoidance of mistakes icon_idea.gif
TSBoon3
post Aug 22 2018, 12:59 PM

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https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45247000
TSBoon3
post Aug 24 2018, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Aug 24 2018, 03:45 PM)
Today big show SAPRNG.
*
Tanked big big due to the cash call. Such a big discount on a stock that is losing money so much??? Hantu also sked la.

This should be the best example on why you should not try to bottom fish a stock in an industry downturn. Yes, sometimes such strategy can work big big but when it keeps going down and because one would instinctively buy more due to the value/net worth/30 sen for the dollar factors, the amount one could get burnt is severely more than one could make...

I can still recall so freshly saying not to go in even when the stock hit 3. And even at 2.

And yeah there was a nice rally recently on the stock...



ps. Trump business mindset. So u cut China and u want more made in USA.. But could he ever think that's a possibility that Americans could not produce as cheap, even with the tariff bashed on the China goods? Can he actually think?
TSBoon3
post Aug 25 2018, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Aug 24 2018, 09:11 PM)
Years before US manufactured goods are very expensive due to their high labour, so most of US company shift their manufacturing plant to other "cheap labour" market, which is China.

Thats how and why we can see the word "Designed in California, Made in China" behind every Iphone biggrin.gif

Then now they claims all technology/ skilled workers are outside US. In order to make "America Great Again", impose tariff, protect US based manufacturer. doh.gif

Can we see every Iphone Designed in California, Made in US few years later?  laugh.gif  Probably the Iphone by then will be more expensive.
*
In this instance, either the consumers or the corporate will suffer. The consumer pays more for the product while/or the corporate bear the burden of the tariffs. So how tariffs be good for the US?

And expanding more, in this instance, Apple, the consumers overseas will suffer too. Maybe more too. As other countries might impose tariffs on Apple products.

25% here and there... When the actual tariffs kicks in... Everyone will hurt.



TSBoon3
post Aug 28 2018, 11:21 AM

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So he started the trade war with so many nations...

Now Americans are hurting from what he started....

What does he do?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/27/trump-farm-...ial-relief.html

doh.gif
TSBoon3
post Aug 28 2018, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Aug 28 2018, 11:35 AM)
The market is over-optimistic still.....

Breaking new high.

While for KLSE, index going up. But those small cap reported poor earning slides down, heavily  sweat.gif
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Yup. Extremely difficult to get a good grip....

And then of course unless if one wants to go for the spectacularly speculative risky cash call play....
TSBoon3
post Aug 28 2018, 11:57 AM

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Another interesting read.

http://m.startribune.com/as-trade-war-esca...tion/491849511/
TSBoon3
post Aug 29 2018, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE
At General Equipment Company in Owatonna, Dennis Von Ruden buys steel castings and forging products from China that now cost 25 percent more as a result of President Donald Trump’s protective tariffs.

Von Ruden, whose 45-person company makes construction equipment for sale and rent, says he cannot find a U.S. source for those parts or several other Chinese-made parts now subject to double-digit U.S. import tariffs.

“Tariffs will ultimately increase our material costs and directly increase our product costs, which will be passed on to our customers as the market permits,” Von Ruden said. “I view tariffs as just another tax, which adds no value back to the company or its employees.”


QUOTE
Nevertheless, U.S. aluminum production facilities are reopening. Steel workers on Minnesota’s Iron Range are going to back to work at once-shuttered plants. Businesses that sell to these re-employed workers are springing up, too. That’s the upside.

The downside is a financial beating to businesses without the size, history or capital to withstand reduced revenue that comes with higher production costs or sales expenses, as well as to consumers who see prices rise without equivalent increases in pay.


QUOTE
"If they add $200 billion in products [to the tariff list], there are not going to be domestic substitutions for some of them,” said Robert Kudrle, a specialist in international trade at the University of Minnesota. “We don’t make many of these things any more.”


QUOTE
Minnesota companies that use metal in their production processes now pay a 25 percent levy on imported steel and a 10 percent levy on imported aluminum. Those that choose to use only U.S.-made metals, such as aluminum parts maker Alexandria Industries, still face cost increases of 15 to 20 percent without the tariff, said Steve Schabel, the company’s chief sales and marketing officer.


QUOTE
Goodwald sells nothing to China, but the trade war is hurting him badly all the same.

“Even though I don’t sell to China, my product gets there from the people I do sell to,” Goodwald said.

When China retaliated against Trump’s initial tariffs by taxing certain imported U.S. metals, Goodwald’s customers couldn’t sell as much in China. So they needed to buy less from GEM-Ash.

“If you look at me as a small-business man and an entrepreneur,” Goodwald said, “my profits go down and lower the amount I make. Then the tariffs increase [consumer] prices so I have to pay more for things. For me, it’s a double whammy.”


http://m.startribune.com/minnesota-s-small...iffs/491948281/
TSBoon3
post Sep 12 2018, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Sep 12 2018, 11:03 AM)
Today is another blood bath day  sweat.gif

Meanwhile in China

https://www.business-standard.com/article/i...91100677_1.html

Labour intensive business has started to look for plan B, by moving their manufacturing plant to another country eg Vietnam. More and more product will try not to have the label of "made in China"

The full effect of the Trade War Crisis has not yet been felt.....
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Yes, that's correct. As it is, only 50billion tariff is imposed on Chinese goods. Rest is not cast in stone.... yet!

I am not sure about the plan to move plants to other countries as it won't help the US to reduce their trade deficits, furthermore all these relocation of plant will need time to implement...

TSBoon3
post Sep 12 2018, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 12 2018, 11:36 AM)
Yes, that's correct. As it is, only 50billion tariff is imposed on Chinese goods. Rest is not cast in stone.... yet!

I am not sure about the plan to move plants to other countries as it won't help the US to reduce their trade deficits, furthermore all these relocation of plant will need time to implement...
*


Worst case... say a company shift their products to Vietnam and once trade figures shows a spike of imported goods from Vietnam, Trump might just whack tariffs on Vietnam too..
TSBoon3
post Sep 12 2018, 11:47 AM

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Meanwhile watch the USD.. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 12 2018, 12:04 PM
TSBoon3
post Sep 12 2018, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Sep 12 2018, 01:49 PM)
Trump wants Iphone to be produced in US  biggrin.gif

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/am...s-a8529641.html

Even with tax incentive, iphone produced in US wont be as cheap as produced in China.

Consumer eventually has to bear the cost.
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Exactly.

Does he know or does he not know what he really is doing?
TSBoon3
post Oct 25 2018, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Sep 12 2018, 11:03 AM)
Today is another blood bath day  sweat.gif

Meanwhile in...

Miss me yet? tongue.gif
TSBoon3
post Oct 30 2018, 09:47 AM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Oct 25 2018, 02:34 PM)
biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif

A rough 2018. What a year  sweat.gif
*
This article...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/china-tarif...months-ago.html

Points 2 & 3... 😥😥
TSBoon3
post Nov 12 2018, 03:12 PM

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Botak kor kor....

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/investing-m...ets-stocks.html

QUOTE
Mobius also said he likes India — where growth rates have surpassed that of China — and Southeast Asia.

"We're beginning to look now in Indonesia again, Thailand of course has not done badly — I mean they've been in pretty good shape, Malaysia is another area which is going to be very interesting going forward," he said.

In terms of sectors, Mobius said he focuses on companies in traditional industries — such as retail — that are using technology to improve their productivity. He also has a preference for firms with strong balance sheets, little debt, and those that split their cash reserves between investing for expansion and paying dividend to shareholders.

TSBoon3
post Nov 12 2018, 08:19 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Nov 12 2018, 04:32 PM)
firms with strong balance sheets, little debt, and those that split their cash reserves between investing for expansion and paying dividend to shareholders.

4 key tipsy.
*
laugh.gif

... that's what investors look for... tongue.gif


I've started getting busy...



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