So how are you doing?


My started getting busy means I've started working on my game plan....

Not much indicates the boom will be back in this sector. I guess this norm, anchoring on past performances...

That's really good to hear.

Work hard on this.. I'm sure you will be rewarded...

Harlo. Your guess is correct. I have no tipsy.

All I can say, now is good time to decide your market strategy...
How will you draw up your game plan? Your focus?
Will you be drawing up plans for one or two stocks that your think should do well next year?
Are you gonna trade like an investor (choosing fundamentally based stocks) and perhaps base your game plan on how 'cheap' (or badly beaten down) these stocks are? Or perhaps you would aim for stocks that does well during festive periods such as CNy......

seriously no stock tips from me...
I am not good enough to give tips...

BTW... here's something you can do...

Take a quick screen of the actives...
Look at its movers ... (ideally fairly new mover or its 'news' should not be more than 2 months (u want to avoid stale fish) )

for example, today, you might spot Tatt Giap
Active... nice momentum... in the green...
now if you do not want to chase Tatt Giap...
you might want to see if it can belong to a family...

for me, I might see the 'new shareholder' angle as perhaps a sector...
So I would view it as a not so good stock... (from a fundamental pov... not making money)...
but then the new shareholder could be a game changer....

so next...
find for any such angle in other stocks...
ie..perhaps a bad stock... which has had a RTO... giving the stock a new perspective...
check the balance sheets...
see how 'clean' the company could be after the RTO...
etc etc...

there's always 'ideas' in the market...
most important is could these idea be a fit for your style of game?

factor in the risks... very important...
one big winner last few days...
is TGuan...
why?
is it that the lower oil prices could be a boom for its profitability?

anyway... Good Luck.

Go make your money dude...

The stock market is always there....

Most important , you know where and what you are good and not good at.
Perhaps trading singular stock at a much longer time frame migh suit you much better....

Randomness.....

Stock chasers....

If and when a stock is shooting up some 20% or 30% in a single day...
some chase the stock...
they chase the breakout....
thinking the stock will go up and up......

and then if the stock falls some 20% or 30%...
they chase the stock too...
chase the breakdown man....
but...
they think when they buy and the stock will just make a u-turn and they make money...
just as simple as that....

no risks?
the stock chaser who chases the stock up, could find themselves caught in a very bad situation if the up tick cannot be sustained and the stock reverses down...

the stock chaser who chases after the 'discount' could find themselves jumping into a sinking pit.....
the stock could potentially fall deeper and deeper....
not possible?
during this oil crash, what was SapuKen trading at before it started crashing?
look at the current price now.....



know your risks....

Trading on overreaction is risky.
On a bearish overall sentiments, betting for the reversal is even much riskier.

Armada.
Operating in a terrible industry sector.
Bad losses (massive impairments) and the said cash flow issue..
Could things get worse?
When will we see the turnaround?

Without the expecting turnaround (ie catalyst) one is merely betting the market sold was wrong and oversold...

Not my choice of bet.

Sapura..
... just as about as bad as Armada.

The one MASSIVE thing about rights issue...
MANY a times shareholders might not want to subscribe to rights issue and one big reason is MONEY.
For example, say a fund has 1 million ringgit invested in Sapura. A rights issue might require the investor dump in another 400k to subscribe for the rights shares..
Some might say No - due to fundamental reasons.
Some might have Not enough money to subscribe for the rights...
Hence sell down could always happen when the rights go ex.

Huge risk....

And I need to stress after the rights, Sapura number of shares will be insanely huge....

Surprised meh?

Reading opinions does not really help your trading or investing leh....

Your stock drops 50%.....

Logically, that needs to double up just to recover your losses.....




The pros watch their profit grows...
So what do you want to do with your losses?

Keep your losses small?
Or watch your losses grow?

Current market strategies...

which strategy seems to be failing every where?


Is it "Chasing after the falling 'star name/big name/top stock' " ???

Your own opinion is much appreciated.. not others

Tq

This post has been edited by Boon3: Dec 11 2018, 11:29 AM

Yeah, I was being in my nasty sarcastic self...

... cos in a forum, we just share opinions and half sens..
Hence I wasn't expecting to be thrown a YouTube in what I had mumbled earlier this morning...
I was like... Duhhhh


Anyway....

Keep losses small...
If one doesn't know this very important concept, one will be left with losses that are so difficult to handle...
It's like sell... die straight...
Don't sell..the losses get bigger and bigger....

Very important hor...

It's like paper trading.
Master it very well before one do any real trading...


peace...

Trade war issue is important cause of the impact on profits..

Do not agree...

Simply chasing after beaten down stocks is never ever a good strategy.

I understand you...

If you trade long enough things like this does happen.
It's not the matter of the strategy been used but whether it was the right moment to use the particular strategy.
Sometimes it's best not to do anything...

Like I mentioned many times before... One just cannot trade all the time... sometimes if there's no trade... just wait and do nothing.

Not long ago, when I talked about the trade war in this thread, many only look at it in an extremely optimistic manner.
If no buy from China, this and that Msian company will benefit...they opined... look at the irony at what you are saying now..

ps.. not all beaten down stock can be bought lah....
You need to get this terrible investor mindset out....
Most stocks get beaten down for real good reasons lah...

Take GenM again as an example.
It was trading close to rm6.
Now it's less than rm3.

So does this mean that because GenM (with its well known reputation as a good 'fundamental' stock) means a good buy?

Well the misconception here it's 'recent high' price.
They cement their mindset on that rm6.
And they use a 'traders mindset' and anchor this high as their POINT OF REFERENCE to calculate their discount.

Well what's the risk?

The risk is this rm6 point of reference might not be reached again anytime in the near future.

RM6 was during the time when the market was still bubbly.
Market was willing to chase the stock up (in regardless of its earnings multiples)

Then we have the gambling tax issue.
Unless this changes in the near future, the tax will eat heavy into the companies profit.

So to anchor the GenM using rm6 as a point of reference is simply suicidal.

And of course next we have the outdoor theme park issue.
Putting aside any impairment losses or litigation losses, without a well known brand for its outdoor theme park, future outdoor park will not be rosy.
Which means, earnings will not be as rosy as being projected....

all this will hurt GenM earnings.

so what's the ball park opportunist valuation for GenM?

3.20 or even maybe 3.60?

What's the price now?

Is the current beaten down price so attractive?