Yes, it has been difficult to trade for more than few months already.

Several reasons kept popping up.
First the risk factor.
for example...
Stocks were rather on the high valuations/growth seems maturing/forex fluctuations .....
Nothing seem to fall into my trading plan....
and even when it did, I just could not get comfy with the setup....

so...


Them EPF cowboys? LOL! Them boys seems to have split personalities........


ps. .... the JL quote I left yesterday...





and oh...

what differs the successful traders and the unsuccessful traders...... is patience.
Patience my friend.
We wait to buy..... and we wait to sell.
In the meantime when there is nothing..... we continue to wait.

One main problem is that many does not realise the importance of having their own special setup... one where their win rate is very good.

They tend to be impatient and they fiddle and bet on other setups where their win rate is not good at all. Ie they enter a trade due to their urge of wanting to trade.

How bad would you let things go against you before you finally admit that you're wrong?

Lots of cobwebs already.........

looking back (review) since election is.......


post #834

comparison of those 3 stocks.... assuming one followed those stocks mentioned in the RHB article as possible election themed stock picks.... ie.. compare FGV, Prestariang and DRB stock prices and now ......

did the early birdie get the worm?

Setups are important.... (for me at least)...
The stocks can be interesting but if the setup is not right.... then usually the trade ends up badly....

Take for example... FPI.... I mentioned it looked interesting ( the growth numbers were there... decent dividends too.. )

this was the chart then...



somehow.... that doesn't look like right.... the long black candle on the 28th (who was selling it down so much b4 the day the company was set to release its earnings), the stock rebounded the next trading day... but then... there was no follow up buying interest.... apa ni? something just doesn't feel right, yes?


look at it now...



and the larger time frame picture is even scarier.....





trading setups is important........ very important.

Actually I am more surprised with Uchitec.

Let me ask you... it's customer base is still mainly Euro, right?

So shouldn't it be immuned to Trump?


(market seems to be tanking as I write.... why ah? )

Up one more time....

Notice from the charts?

I never lead with the charts hor.....

anyway.... most of the charts at this moment... they are breaking down badly..... in general the wiser move is to stay away.... and yes... despite this....there are a few charts that is still ok , which begs the question that we need to ask ourselves is 'are we good enough to pick these stocks and trade them profitably?'.... if the answer is no, then best is to understand the phrase 'why we cannot trade all the time'....

bad and extreme market conditions can destroy our very best trading setup (and in the end, it destroys our trading soul )..... anyhow also die la... trade like this die... trade like that also die... based on fundamental also die... got dividend also die....

and the opposite.... when good markets come... anyhow also can... anyhow draw line here and there also can.... anyhow bounce on what line also can... anything is also godlike.

Don't be itchy.....

Trading volatility is something not many are good at.

Last couple of years, the strong USD factor created a strong trending market where strong growth were seen in many company. Trading then was more straight forward. It was easy.

This has changed. The ringgit has regained a fair bit against the dollar. This has not fully reflected in most stocks. Weaker earnings are to be expected in many companies. So you are going to witness a market with many stocks experiencing declining earnings. What seem cheap now in relative to it's earnings could be deemed expensive when you factor in future declining earnings.

... and worst still ... the uncertainty of future earnings impacted by this Donald tariff war.

... and then we have our local issues....

How do you want to factor in your market risk assessments?

.... yeah... lousy market will still have a few winners one.... But are you good enough to pick these needles from the haystack? And how profitable is your game plan?


Trade the setups you are good at....
Never trade for the sake of wanting to trade....

Patience....

Wait.



This post has been edited by Boon3: Apr 5 2018, 01:03 PM

No. Don't lock your laptop. Now is the time to reflect and find ways to improve !!

Develop your game plans, your strategies and most important know what's your best setup is....



Many die foolishly trying to make money in risky markets..... is that wise?



Trade when winning is easy. Good idea?

well... it's really amazing lah.. Cos most of the things mentioned in the book really made sense and amazingly, it still holds true after almost a hundred years....

Can you?

Start big and try not to add just for the sake of adding and if and when you do add, you should only add a small fraction....

kaypo sikt....

not sure what u trying to say there....

when you trade, it's best to just trade the trade correctly....
that should be the focus...
when you trade focusing just on the money issue, you usually end up trading the trade wrongly.....

ie... say your results shows that you yield a better profitability trading double bottoms..
well... one of your focus on it should be ....making sure you are not too early....
trade the setup correctly...
the profits will automatically flow in once you perfect such trades.....

well... this is why it is recommended that traders should know which setups suits them best. Once they do, all they need to do is focus in trading the setup correctly.

The other thing (sort of related to buy size....)

not recommended to use DCA when entering a trade... cos ultimately it's a form of averaging down....
think of it this way...
u wanna trade but u wanna think like an investor...
trying to get the stock cheaply... (thinking cheap means more discount)
and you have your step down purchases of the stock...
for example...
u buy $$$$ at 1.0 ...
your next purchase maybe is at 0.95...
and the next purchase maybe at 0.85... and so on and so on....
time as you know... flies past quickly...
very soon you will discover you are now owning quite a lot of shares of $$$$...
and every time you line up lower your bids keep getting filled...

now if you take a step back...
this meant the stock is actually rolling down the cliff...
and you are buying...
but what about the stock selection itself?
what if you are wrong?

see the point?

( but of course one would be asking why didn't one use the stop loss? )

I mentioned that cos you asked if I started with a small position...



Firstly it's fantastic to see that you are planning ahead... that's how it should be.
But then.... remember the book about following others? Remember that couple of chapters?

Anyway... some second opinions....
You need to understand why the volatility is happening.
You need to understand why most stocks are correcting so much? (*hint .. check the earnings and what is it suggesting)

then comes your strategy...
what's your game plan going to focus on?
Are you going to trade like an investor and base your game plan on how 'cheap' the stocks are?
Or ......

now... this I cannot help you.
You need to develop this all on your own.

and definitely the part about stock picking...

remember ... I have no tips to give one.

Me belum .... gone .... yet la.

... the most important thing is you need to discover the setup you are very good at.

Such a setup is usually unique ... what you are good at, I would probably suck at. If you are good at scalping ( met many great scalpers online b4 ) stick to it. Perfect it but most importantly, you need to realistic and understand you can't use it all the time. When the market doesn't suit your setup, just be patience and wait for it. Remember it.

You miss the fella soooooooooooooooooooomuch meh?

Long time no come.

How's your trading?