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ChAOoz
post Sep 13 2020, 07:55 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 13 2020, 06:52 PM)
Cimb target price is based on fy 21.

Macquarie target price is based on fy 22.

But the important thing is both of them agree that such extraordinary profit cannot be sustainable. And once it declines, the profit decline will be massive.

ChAOoz what's your opinion? smile.gif
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Both have the same direction, but each choose their TP based on different timing.

Cimb choose to go with a TP at the max earning curve, while Big Mac choose to go with an ASP normalized assumption timing.

Both actually have same down direction long run. Not surprise to see CIMB put it from overweight -> Neutral -> Underweight -> Sell in future to come.

Also i know you don't care about their TP, so when you read both report it will look like both telling the same story, but gave different ending conclusion haha.
ChAOoz
post Sep 14 2020, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 14 2020, 01:17 PM)
and wow... the market is rather so kind to Genting M...
looks like their all okay for Genting M to be the designated ATM machine...  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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This is 50% of the contributing factor why i buy genting. I don't know why their shareholder base so hardcore believer one.



ChAOoz
post Sep 15 2020, 11:20 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Sep 15 2020, 03:17 PM)
Few incidents can raise alarm liao

> spent 200mil on share buy back, give dividend also at least 2 cent for each share
> appear in media last friday (8tv)
> US start to punish glove maker especially topglove, NZ top supplier withdraw their stock

If u look at the chart, trendline sudah broker and still trading below, forming like a head and shoulder. Sendiri pannai pannai if trade this counter.
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Another red flag, associating himself with stock gurus lately. Urghh puke.gif

I wonder how much influence they have on his recent actions.
ChAOoz
post Sep 17 2020, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 17 2020, 01:58 PM)
Oooh...... looked into the BS......

and the bloody elephant in the room is that TG has its hand in the money market funds.....

normally it's ok .... to put some extra money into market funds... but this TG ..... i think is way too aggressive....
it's got some 1.6 BILLION ringgit in money market funds...

and when the company put in so much money in, you think they would be more transparent and describe clearly what type of money market fund does 1.6 Billion ringgit buy!!!  rolleyes.gif  rolleyes.gif

scary
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RISK ON !!! Turn it up to the max.

Anyway the next question is where does it go from here. Maybe another goreng, another leg up ? Will this round be more fund coming in from retailer ? Institutional ? Will just have to see wink.gif
ChAOoz
post Sep 28 2020, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 28 2020, 09:20 AM)
user posted image

rolleyes.gif
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Volume too low. Gains not sexy enough and possibility of big gap on downtrend is there.

For now spending my time find palm oil "tech" for trades tongue.gif

Also new iphone launching, seemed good for its supply chain.
ChAOoz
post Sep 28 2020, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 28 2020, 03:54 PM)
Fuyoooh.... some1 talking about volume?

Actually, volume isn't bad (yes, it could be better). However, since the stock has corrected quite a but from its peak, so if this 'was'/'is' the consolidation phase then the volume is actually building up nicely.... my opinion here which could be wrong. tongue.gif

See below zoom in....

user posted image

see the side blue arrow... this is my view of its consolidation phase .... yeah... my view could be wrong....
anyway... it is what it is... still playing with my spiders....  smile.gif
Palm oil? This is one of them sectors which I am totally not interested in.... laugh.gif

but yeah... appreciate that you are sharing with me..... tq la .... smile.gif
Iphone launching? Rather skeptical .....isn't it supposed to be a 'cheaper' version?
Dunno man.... Apple fansi alwayes want new fashionable and improved version.....
cheaper version? LOL!
not sure them Apple fansi will die die buy atm....
and the wechat issue..... lol.... ios can sideload meh?

so.... there.... skeptical .... not sure it will be a hit at all...


...  and Apple made its biggest mistake by splitting.... my 3 sen here.....  icon_rolleyes.gif
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This year iphone, going to be big, due to 5G supercycle. My bets on Inari to deliver high shipments this Q.

As for UWC, many whispers going on, but this one not resilient. You see its fluctuation even on small volume
ChAOoz
post Oct 6 2020, 09:37 AM

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QUOTE(TheLegend27 @ Oct 6 2020, 09:31 AM)
ok. boon3 is master here. ohmai
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Yes haha. That stock is flying. Was looking at it on 5.4 and now its 6.7+-, one week period flex.gif

Too bad never enter
ChAOoz
post Oct 6 2020, 03:54 PM

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You see UWC weak holders in action. The swings are crazy.
ChAOoz
post Oct 6 2020, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 6 2020, 04:04 PM)
hmm.gif  hmm.gif 

this is your definition of weak holders?

Look at the morning chart again...
user posted image
won't some smart traders take profit given how fast it shot up after its consolidation?

anyway, no stock run up forever and ever. It's normal to have selling days like this after a short and fast run up.
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To me profit taking is normal, but the way this stock move, it seemed more like a penny stock rather than one with an established investor base.

But pro and cons i guess. Easy up, easy down.

ChAOoz
post Oct 6 2020, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 6 2020, 04:46 PM)
... and by the way, did you do a shareholder analysis?

1. What is the free float?

2. Share base of UWC?

3. Rough percentage of shares traded daily (on average)
UWC investor base is weak?  rolleyes.gif
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Founder / Owner is having more than 70%+ in total. There are a few associates inside as well.

The free float is low, last round when trying to clear my position, the sell gap is up to 0.2X, and that was during when the price was 3.X range, or maybe that was a period of panic. idk.

Overall the one active inside there are nibbling at the stock. If you got enough capital / shares, you could really do some damage there.

I trade this one since IPO, and i still feel they are weak, i could really see big capital getting wipe off if i'm not careful on entry.
ChAOoz
post Oct 6 2020, 05:16 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 6 2020, 05:09 PM)
Nope. Don't agree. Entry points are so important. I have said it b4, buying right solves most problems. Stock entry is so ever important and needless to say if you buy any stock wrongly, chances of losing increases significantly.

Like I said... I don't see what you are seeing or feeling. Maybe it's me. So never mind lah.
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Well or maybe just bad experience for me. The few rounds i'm selling it, i can always see people bidding it down very fast. Seemed to me those that are trading it are pretty panicky.

But i'm not fair la, as i din't complain when it goes up very fast as well tongue.gif

ChAOoz
post Oct 7 2020, 07:43 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 7 2020, 03:38 PM)
the market is making the same bet.... see? see?

laugh.gif

user posted image
me? show me the profits first la.....  laugh.gif
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Wah you remember. So far seemed good, but I'm cautiously optimistic.

I also prefer for it to show via their revenues and bottom line for a more sustained uptrend.
ChAOoz
post Nov 24 2020, 09:54 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 6 2020, 04:46 PM)
... and by the way, did you do a shareholder analysis?

1. What is the free float?

2. Share base of UWC?

3. Rough percentage of shares traded daily (on average)
UWC investor base is weak?  rolleyes.gif
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Reassessed what you said. Change my glasses a bit and went back into this counter on oct.

Valuations is very high now, but fundamental is intact and solid. Making this decision really not easy.

I expect some good numbers from them for latest quarter with new key customer orders loading. How much can future earning growth offset the high P/E need to see already.
ChAOoz
post Dec 14 2020, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 14 2020, 11:56 AM)
laugh.gif Your trading lingo ... wow!

Well.. once the MI earnings back to normal (last month was a surprise cos the earnings decline) ... it could be a sexy idea... tongue.gif

See .. this is why trading is always exciting ....

If you are interested ... watch the candles... if the reversal candle is sighted tomorrow ... it should attract some ......

cool2.gif
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Itching to enter MI.

how bad can it go btw if no reversal candle for this ?
ChAOoz
post Dec 16 2020, 08:50 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 15 2020, 04:54 PM)
that should be a dragonfly doji .....

user posted image
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Collected past 2 days. Hopefully got reversal of trend today sweat.gif

But fundamentally their customer is doing really well. Namely ASE/INARI, both having ramp up and opening up new production line.

Once this rebound technically it might be a nice looking chart.
ChAOoz
post Jan 11 2021, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 11 2021, 03:13 PM)
ChAOoz

Big money is in the waiting ... tongue.gif

user posted image

still waiting?  brows.gif
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Yup yup i'm sitting on it. Sit since that day you pull some chart for me to see. I see how far it can go tongue.gif
ChAOoz
post Jan 11 2021, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 11 2021, 12:26 PM)
That actually would be nice but I don't want to lead. wink.gif

I see. Had been watching Danco but somehow... err...
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Danco ! I'm holding also.

The problem is the warrant conversion, but if already account all the warrant , the company still seemed solid. So i just left it there.
ChAOoz
post Jan 11 2021, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 11 2021, 03:35 PM)
Ah....yes!!! yes!!! yes!!!

the warrants distorting the mother price.

No wonder.....
Why don't you buy and hold the warrants then?
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Cause when i buy i didn't notice the warrant. Mistake on my part cry.gif

Then when price keep cannot go up, i go and check.

Seemed there will be a dilution effect from the warrant. I can actually sell all the mother and buy the warrant to have better gain actually, need to pay a bit more for the warrant premium only. But some warrant proceed actually has been put to good use in acquisition of profitable company with lower multiple, so no complain on my part.
ChAOoz
post Jan 12 2021, 09:16 AM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Jan 11 2021, 04:10 PM)
Ah thanks for the info. Seems like i need to learn to note those warrants/PA conversion next time.

For DANCO case, is it this part?

user posted image

Seems like is around 22M shares converted. Do you like have a percentage reference like say 10% warrant conversion is consider to be a lot?
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Yup you see the dilution on the eps. But as long as they convert warrant and continue to use it to positively improved their long term eps i dont mind.

Their warrant is providing them cash to do acquisition of company with synergy to their core business without impacting the company core financial health. And the boss usually do conversion when they planning acquisition, so i feel that is also fair. You want bigger exposure and leverage to Danco i would recommend trading their warrant instead
ChAOoz
post Jan 12 2021, 09:27 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 12 2021, 09:24 AM)
Here's a recent example...

there was a declining trend line seen for MI.

After breaking out of the trend line .... it quickly moves higher but then .... it turns back lower ....

user posted image
yup... not easy to trade such setups.
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It will go up in the long run im sure of that.

Not sure how fast bursa retailer will react to the news or they wait for qr report but:

https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/01/11/...ple-chip-orders

MI biggest customers are taiwan semis that support tsmc.
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