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ChAOoz
post Jan 12 2021, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 12 2021, 10:15 AM)
ChAOoz not buying? tongue.gif

only thing that's difference is no snap election.

and this is an outright 'fight' against c19.

not too bad, what. tongue.gif
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No very limited fund now haha. Unless its really low maybe.
ChAOoz
post Jan 12 2021, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 12 2021, 10:29 AM)
Strength in a weak market ....

user posted image

user posted image
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my 2 cents, TSMC tongue.gif
ChAOoz
post Jan 12 2021, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 12 2021, 12:52 PM)
I am aware. tongue.gif

Would you buy at 4?
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Nope haha. I already choosen MI i will stick to it cause both also over valued if you really put on the value investors lens
ChAOoz
post Jan 12 2021, 03:39 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 12 2021, 03:33 PM)
then.... would you have added MI? laugh.gif tongue.gif

Frt go up but MI no go.... how can?  tongue.gif
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3.60 and below i add. The rest need the boss to work already, my job is just to hunt for the point of bargain entry.

My tech stock entry criteria the P/E from 25x now move up to 40x (new normal like mco sweat.gif ). Anything below 40x with a great management team, consistent growth, small to mid market cap seemed like a no brainer now.
ChAOoz
post Jan 13 2021, 09:49 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 13 2021, 09:41 AM)
whistling.gif

See? Now MI picked up steam... Frtken, Elsoft & MI ..... err ... same gang ah? tongue.gif
come ChAO .... come .... come to the dark side..... expand your horizon ....  cool2.gif
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I already pick up MI since their last drop. The other two don't want la. My exposure on tech already very high.

Seemed today most tech all breakout, i will just enjoy the show icon_rolleyes.gif
ChAOoz
post Jan 13 2021, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 13 2021, 09:55 AM)
it's calling you .....  tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif

user posted image
laugh.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Hahah when it's going up I really no appetite to add one cause my TA lousy.

If i try to mix TA & FA usually i get wrong entry.
ChAOoz
post Jan 13 2021, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 13 2021, 10:09 AM)
Err... Remember when it broke that down trend and hit a high of 4.20?
Since then, as mentioned, most of the time, the stock would consolidate first. Which has been doing.
Now? It is picked up it's feet....
it's moving...
and chances are that it should retest that 4.20 and possible move higher...

now if you believe in averaging up ...
now? might be a good chance ... to top up.

Simpler reason  to average up now.
1. you reasoned the stock was too good to be in the earlier down trend. So you buy on the breakout... around 3.80 (correct?)

2. you don't expect the stock trend to reverse in a straight line.... so you expect a pullback from 4.20. (correct?)

3. now the stock had pullback. consolidated it's position. you expect the stock back up. (correct?)

so considering 1, 2 and 3 ... isn't this a perfect position to add up?

laugh.gif
come .... come.... think as a trader .....  devil.gif
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Yup your reasoning is correct, the stock is also moving as you predicted.

Not really comfortable to average up so i don't want to do it haha
ChAOoz
post Jan 13 2021, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 13 2021, 11:18 AM)
zat what I told ChAOoz  smile.gif
but he was resisting to top up.....

shit... my salesmanship tak boleh pakai  cry.gif
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I sit and sit ma like you told me earlier. The money is in the sitting innocent.gif

ChAOoz
post Jan 14 2021, 01:18 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 14 2021, 12:27 PM)
Missed?

Aiyoh... After all my sales pitch at ChAOoz .... sad...

Lucky I don't sell no snake oil tongue.gif
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No dessert for me sadly haha.
ChAOoz
post Jan 14 2021, 01:54 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 14 2021, 01:49 PM)
oh... yesterday news... after my position is cut at 6.60. laugh.gif

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/glov...ng-vaccinations

this section below:
“Malaysian glove producers’ aggregate market capitalisation is 86% correlated to the US daily new testing data. The high 90% correlation was due to higher hospitalisation rate, driven by more testing, which in turn leads to higher demand for medical supplies and glove,” the bank commented.

The anticipated slower demand, JP Morgan said, implies limited upside to the average selling prices of the rubber glove.

In an earlier research note dated Jan 6, JP Morgan said it expects glove prices to reach a peak by the first half of 2021, with prices and profits to normalise thereafter.

The bank had compiled data of 18 countries, representing 17% of the world population, and found that besides India, Canada, Russia and the UK, the remaining countries it tracked are seeing a slow down in testing.

This limits the upside to glove prices, said JP Morgan, as “the more one tests, the more cases will be discovered which leads to hospitalisation and the need for medical supplies and gloves... Surges in testing created shortages which changed glove pricing from negotiated basis to spot”.

At the time, the average selling price stood at US$140 versus US$22 pre-Covid-19, which the bank said was driven by unsystematic buying.

Secured revenue growth is unsecured
Investors argue that the revenue growth is secured as most glove producers claim to have two or more years of order backlog, but JP Morgan begs to differ.

"It is crucial to understand order backlog and secured revenue. Orders are merely an agreement to buy a certain volume with prices determined or undecided. Buyers can walk away from it,” it wrote, noting that secured revenue is when customers have paid fully or partially for future delivery.

"As shown in Top Glove's quarterly results, we have indeed seen a sharp spike in deposits collected, from RM60 million a year ago to the latest quarter’s RM1 billion.

"However, the deposit paid is merely 4.7% of projected revenue for the financial year ending Aug 31, 2021 (FY21). It is not even equal to a month’s worth of glove sales," said JP Morgan.

JP Morgan maintained “underweight” calls on Top Glove Corp Bhd with target price (TP) at RM3.50, Hartalega Holdings Bhd (TP: RM8.50) and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (TP: RM3.80).

However, it cautions that the risks to the calls on the three glove producers include a second global wave of Covid-19 which could lift glove prices to new heights, unscheduled capacity shutdowns, a significant fall in input costs such as nitrile and natural rubber, a significant step-up in dividend payouts as well as a substantial degree of ringgit depreciation.
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Very fair reporting. Well i believe sure got some glove holder will try to counter each point with their own argument.

ChAOoz
post Jan 14 2021, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Jan 14 2021, 02:04 PM)
Sacred Cow.

I want milk milk blush.gif

user posted image

Biggest holder  :confused:
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Should be holding on behalf of etf funds for blackrock.
ChAOoz
post Jan 14 2021, 07:33 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 14 2021, 07:23 PM)
Sometimes need to identify the right dragon.
Summoning ChAOoz.

Got a question for you, hopefully I guessed right.
There is this company I had on my secondary watchlist that I was interested in but yet to do the homework on. Today it started moving.
Are you familiar with Scientex? If you are, what are your thoughts on it?
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My short analysis on them previously i just paste ah. In short, i like them. Good growth prospect, Stable performance and good management.


QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 10 2020, 08:19 PM)
Btw i entered scientex already, long term position. Actually this counter quite illiquid it seemed, really unpopular. Below is a summarized reasons of why i went in. No TA done at all for this  sweat.gif  tongue.gif

I think their industry are the real deal. Not the most sexy like tech but also not a one time bumper earnings year like glove. The trend seemed sustainable:

https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/...ackaging-market
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/2020...hAndMarkets.com

Also their affordable housing going hand in hand with government initiatives. The real housing demand for Malaysia is from b40 and m40 but most keep building for the T20. So i think scientex property sector also more or less covered for the next 5 years.

https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1734549/gov...hip-b40-and-m40
https://press.sunway.edu.my/blog/housing-af...-and-b40-groups

Not the most sexy counter, but i feel this one could be another undiscovered gem, just gotta wait it out but seemed solid.
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ChAOoz
post Jan 14 2021, 07:37 PM

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Personally i think Scientex is not expensive. If you really plan to keep long and ignore the day to day fluctuation, this current price point seemed ok.

But need prepare to wait at least 1 - 2 year to see it bear fruits i think.
ChAOoz
post Jan 15 2021, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 15 2021, 09:08 AM)
laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif

I just glanced its qr.... err.... manufacturing of course is doing good but I do notice that the property segment is getting as big (if not bigger) as it's manufacturing division.

Not worried that it will morph into a MahSing version 2?

tongue.gif
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Doubt so, but property segment is actually a pretty high margin business. The reason they went into it like so many others is also because its a capital intensive business that is highly rewarding if done right.

But if scientex were just to focus on property, they would not have purchase that stake in daibochi. I would assume they are currently trying to scale up their margin to be in more advance manufacturing.

My hope is profit from property is held steady, while scientex show YoY margin improvement on their manufacturing. This would be next catalyst for them.
ChAOoz
post Jan 15 2021, 09:26 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 15 2021, 09:21 AM)
Never say never. tongue.gif

Rational is simple... if the Sector A is making so much more money than Section B .... the logical thing is to focus more on Sector A.
think about it. wink.gif
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The process already started on the margin improvement for plastic manufacturing. Let's see after another 3 quarter reports will they reach the target or not

If really property still keep leading then perhaps i need to reconsider the investment.

I am expecting big things from their shift from just being a stretch film producer to a total solution plastic packaging supplier. So far their Q1 is within my expectation
ChAOoz
post Jan 15 2021, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 15 2021, 09:33 AM)
Oh of course I understand your reasoning.  It's more of a 'me thingy' since I am very selective in the stocks I play.
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I see them like QL going from cut throat poultry business to food manufacturing, same industry but higher complexities.

If it does happen, i will just sit tight tight. But usually things doesn't go as well as plan la tongue.gif
ChAOoz
post Jan 15 2021, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 15 2021, 09:45 AM)
Eh? Me no like QL.... I see them not so high . laugh.gif

it's copying business concept from Unker Buffy style... acquire this business, acquire that, and acquire, acquire, acquire..... I sked. laugh.gif laugh.gif
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If no backfire and got business synergy ok, if backfire will be writedowns and writedowns. Burnings shareholders money
ChAOoz
post Jan 15 2021, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 15 2021, 09:52 AM)
Oh I found this post...post #317
the pictures.....  sweat.gif
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Oh my the defect is really bad, Mah Sing 2.0 incoming... sweat.gif

ChAOoz
post Jan 15 2021, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(Lfearlessly @ Jan 15 2021, 09:58 AM)
Yes, actually it quite well known (at least in JB area, i guess) for their "bad quality" (Maybe this is the reason why their property segment has high profit margin, using cheap material)
So if they're keep like this, it's may affect their future property segment  hmm.gif
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Maybe boss don't know.

Next round AGM go print out the defects picture and distribute it around, then they will surely notice rolleyes.gif
ChAOoz
post Jan 15 2021, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 15 2021, 10:21 AM)
ChAOoz

I cannot be ungrateful but TQ for this. smile.gif
you know ... only regret is not knowing about this earlier.

Yes, the stock was declining after its poor QR number last Feb but if I had known this stock and read the QR, this would have been one that I would have bought on weakness.

The bigger picture, for me, was that the stock was actually trending strongly after IPO. Then Feb QR happened, which by itself was perhaps an opportunity to buy on weakness. The March correction created a much bigger weakness.... this should have been ideal for me. wink.gif

what to do .... not meant to be then.......

but yea.... TQ.

rclxms.gif
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I should thank you instead haha.

This is the one you convince me to join dark side and rebought it back on uptrend one tongue.gif

I mentioned weak holder and dispose my position one you remember ? Then you pull some chart, i think think and got back in.

Did you bought it ?

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