Cult stock. Even if can short also not good idea.

I think their supporter will gladly pay Tony money to buy his debt. Cause you know AA is irreplaceable

Hahah bookmarked.

Greed > Logic as always. When you throw in social media nowadays, it just blow everything out of proportion.

The last time i remember such a vertical graph was 97 and dot com. Nobody know when it will pop, but everyone is confident they can run in time.

Haha this kind of "Ace" technology counter always like that it seemed.

Loss making, loss making. Then profit, then suddenly goreng all the way. After that many got trap, loss making again.

This has been one hell of a run hahaha. You throw what at the crowd they also take it.

Those analyst are like the moodys of the 08 crisis. We have glove here and then we have tech + EV on US. 2.2K TP Tesla / 1.2k TP shopify

P/E is outdated. Now we use P/S

Price-to-Sales Ratio. Instead of P/E ratio.

Quote myself just for the heck of it. I sold my position blog post out again

Anyway after so many round, he is still as influential as ever

But this round he moderated slightly. He basically say, i sell cause i feel its expensive but overall i still like the industry. Hence i buy TG. So dont worry ya, TP still intact.

I tell you he rich, but his Dayang suffered. Sure he jackup superman kau kau and rotate from speculative to stable and then finally quietly exit the sector. Confirm this round exceed his previous dayang unrealized gain before the flash crash in O&G.

He is big shark, any water he go in sure disrupted. Somemore got blog.

He was rich-er before Dayang collasped. So need to make up all the lost profit somewhere. Supermax just came in at the right time.

I tell you he sure go TG then quietly disposed and clean his hand of glove sector entirely. After that maybe 1 - 2 month later blogpost about how he sold all glove due to "certain" reason. Nicely offloaded. This time profit fully lock in.

Mask, glove, vaccine, vials, packaging, logistics. This is the order i guess. 😋

Hahaha financial engineering loh. It's not an operational loss but a one time "investment" loss.

How they spin it, one thing is clear, AAX & AA financial is really bad. Not worth the debt for their current price.

You see it's a 1bil loss for the equity / shareholder. So it's really 1bil, but it's not realized yet, hence not operational.

I guess the hedge contract is not close yet or something, maybe this will rebound and it become +500m (wishful thinking) hahah

They use Calendar Year EPS. You see it's slightly higher at 51.8

But i have never follow all those analyst guidance. It keep on changing, based on share price and sentiment, so really no value one.

I still read all their reports tho, as some contain interviews and internal discussion with the company management or industry observation, those do hold some insight outsider won't get.

Don't know haha. I guess company financial year and actual calendar year ending different. So they took the higher of those two to calculate their TP.

Investing now is as easy as gambling on EPL

Let's see if construction is the next wave, we need fiscal spending, to keep this house of cards going.

Result out. Aint no Topglove.

Let see how fellow analyst gonna write for this one.

Lol, totally overvalued.

Once peak pandemic over, profit normalized or even deteriorate due to too much extended capacity i wonder what's the P/E gonna be like. This is gonna be like O&G all over again but in a bigger way due to the bubble size and amount in speculations.

Hehe. Yes gold run. See a good story, camp on it and sell it once its hype.


Jewelry counter Positive Spin:
Many gold inventories. Due to low sales during MCO. So old stock = low raw material cost, so with rising gold price you can profit from the difference between cheap raw material and high price finish goods.

Tomei vs Poh Kong
Poh kong 500+m inventories. Tomei 300+m inventories (as per last QR report) (We assume all their inventories are gold ) (i feel abit scientist like now).

This would mean if all their inventory holdings never sold since pre MCO. Tomei and Poh Kong inventory would now be value at increase 20% = (600m - Poh Kong), (360m - Tomei)

Assuming cost structure the same, this would mean next QR, we are expecting Net Profit to increase exponentially. As commodity trading, any small uptick in margin, would translate to big net profit difference. This is the nature of trading business, wont go too deep into this.

OK if you read until here, you would think. Wah all good, lets whack jewelry counters. But but but, what "analyst" wont mentioned is:

Valuation
Assuming today due to rising gold price poh kong earn 100m windfall profit and Tomei earn 60m windfall profit due to the rising gold price. How would it impact their valuation if everything remain the same ?

Poh Kong original market cap 200m+. So a 100m windfall profit, would justify a new 300m market cap = 50% increase from RM0.48 to RM0.72 +- share price

Tomei original market cap 70m+. So a 60m windfall profit would justify a new 130m market cap = 90% increase from RM0.45 to RM0.85 +- share price

But you see how much market value them now.

Jewelry counter Risk:
Last run on Tomei / Poh Kong was circa 2017, shot up in expectation of rising gold price. Puncture after a few months, trap many bag holders.

What people don't realized is Tomei / Poh Kongs are essentially jeweler. They buy gold and manufactured jewelry. So rising gold price is a one time inventory gain effect. As their future buy in raw material price had increased, so essentially if gold were to go down, they would suffer a big one-off as well due to high raw material price and low sell price to customer.

Also rising gold price, would mean their future jewelry become expensive, hence with expensive jewelry pieces, this would mean lower sales. So actually a rising gold price is a one off effect and a negative long run effect for business.


TLDR: Can trade jewelers counters on sentiment and a good story to spin, but don't invest for long term. It's a shitty business with low margins and cyclical due to gold price.

100m windfall is max already. Assuming all inventory since last quarter nvr sold and now only liquidate at current gold price.

Also this windfall of 100m is one off not like a continuous profit machine. So max also give it an increase share valuation of 50% from base only, not the now 300% share price increase poh kong is enjoying.

Wah seemed like your predicted two tops now for the glove counters. Hahaha too bad not much instrument for you to short in Malaysia.

Excited to see how it will close today, later is a false negative

Yeah it's pretty fun but its a sure fire way to lose money this kind of market for me.

The more I prone to trade, the higher likelihood I make a mistake and the volatility eats me up.