https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/11/business...-hnk/index.html

What do you guys think about this news, gloves big 4 price tomorrow will be impacted or not? (e.g. Topgun drop again before rebound on tues?)

For me, I have no idea how the market would react to the news....

But .... there's nothing new really in that article really......

this forced labor issue was actually highlighted on the Guardian in 2018....

mixed feelings on it...

1. such labor practice is what it is.... these so called employment agents made unscrupulous lots of money. It's really terrible....

2. It exist everywhere la....other countries too.

3. the amount involved it's really staggering. Harta recently said it paid (reimburse) these agents up to 40 million in recruitment fees!! (googleable these news)

TG on the other hand, clearly could have done better. Once the report was made in an international news, the Guardian, in 2018, TG should have wise up and clean up shop. It's now 2020.... why dilly dally?

Went Sunday morning. Got some time to talk some ayam.

Ok, my main focus always is making good trade on a good setup. There's got to be a plan.
I would rather lose a well planned trade then simply trade and win...

This was Top Glove chart on the 9th.



As noted several days b4, I mentioned the point that 'top top' for TG... ie Double Top was formed....
and there we were on the 9th... TG is right where the neckline is for Double Top.... and most of all, it was already trading with the uptrend channel being breached... and technically the stock was already weak since the correction in July (yes, it did reached a new high after the correction but the signs were there (via the lower traded volume) that the big boys weren't interested in participating in the rally at THAT point (do they not believe the stock go could much higher?) ....and most important, the down days kept on increasing... the clearest sign that the rally doesn't have legs no more... it needs a good correction.

and oh.... the volume.... the volume looked better on the 8th and 9th.... (increase volume on down days?  ) .... but the one thing that needs to be mentioned is..... we need to remember that TG is now 3 times bigger.    so whatever volume we see now.... we need to remember that TG is now a stock which is 3 times bigger!

That was where we were on the 9th...

So clearly, it wouldn't be good trade in my books to go in on the 10th... and when I saw the message.... it was starting to trade below the neckline already....

the thing I asked...

Aren't I clearly betting against the market? If the stock decline started gathering momentum, do I even know where the exit door is? ( yeah... I could guess where the so called support is (hate such trading) or I could use % as my cut loss ... but nah, I fancied neither... )

and yeah.... what's the catalyst to enter the trade? Catch the rebound? Nah....

Everything else.... still the same for me. There's nothing new! Still waiting for TG to show me their big earnings... which is at least 1.5 B for the coming quarter...
Any earnings else is technically very, very good but we need to remember... it's already as expected by the market.... which is a joke really. TG could report 1 billion in profits.... which will be very, very good ...... 1 billion profit wo.... but then..... those marker scientist had already spoiled it lo cos such profit numbers was already as expected......

So I really dunno how to trade TG on the 10th.... and so TG closed on the 10th like this...


and btw the buyback is reckless....
But for now... nobody will care .... cos the stock rebounded nicely.... dragging the whole market up.... 

Well it could possibly be a bull trap.

The rationale of going on tv right before qr report is out and the large buyback would certainly lure in many new holder to ensure a strong base or either allow the existing holders to realized their profit.

If this is true, kinda shocked to believe the owner will do this kinda move. Top glove has always been the slow and steady kind.

So here's the issue.

If TG reports for the coming quarter a profit of 1 billion, which is really very, very good (imo) and certainly is deemed as a robust profit under the boss eyes, but this number, I tell you, is simply a meh.

It's as expected.

... and this is the problem.

absolutely.

expectations are high... due to all that hype for weeks and months.

1bil is excellent but is too low to sustain current expectations.

it will have to be significantly more than that.

at EGM, a slide flashed "analysts expect 1.4bil".

8tv on thu also flashed "1.4bil" for a split second.

one can either take that as a hint or it was all a sham-scam trick!!
ok... better we wait thu...

8tv? So drastic? Lol.
Sorry ah. I do not trust bosses and definitely not this one.

If profits were so good, they should not done the buyback and instead focus on dividends.

nah... we r just discussing here.

i dun really know what to expect anymore...

if it turns sour, people learn a good lesson.

if it turns sweet, people also learn a good lesson.

so, we wait till then!

Just doing some catch up reading. Saw the Macquaire report posted on the Edge.

u should catch up on the McQ warrants story too, really sexy.
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...er-glove-makers
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/trading_w...ve_Warrants.jsp

about FY or CY2022... that's where the trick is, isn't it?!

u can plug in any ASP 2-3 years out, who dare say u right or wrong?

argue for a case of int rate rise, build in steep incr in discount rate, future cash flows will look shitty for sure!

and who dare say u r right or wrong?!

1. Look and compare the 'trend' of the profit between M and Cimb....

FY2020. M has it at 1.75 Billion. Cimb has it at 1.589 B.
FY2021 M has it at 10.3 Billion. Cimb has it at 5.313 B.
FY2022 M has it at 2.02 billion. Cimb has it at 1,905 B.

Both saying the same exact thing. Big profits for 2021 (which we all know) and Huge DECLINE in profit in 2022.

Both saying the same thing ....

very unique yes? But M has said as it is... it did not sugar coat anything...
and because the market prices forward ( Question now for you is do you want to price it on 21 numbers or 22 numbers?) and based on 22 numbers, well TG is not gonna be priced so highly.

Is there anything wrong with that statement from M?
Nope.

The only difference is CIMB has the same exact profit trend and CIMB fy22 numbers are even lower but CIMB chose not to value TG based on fy22 numbers.

Well this is the crux of it, yes?

M downgrades TG based on fy22 numbers... numbers which CIMB has it even lower....

2. I am not here to convince you what to do with your trades. I am only sharing what I think from I see..... okay?

3. Friend... I really, really, really do not want to read any articles from i3. Serious hor... so do excuse me if I don't attempt to read that link at all. And I have refrain from the Stock Discussion thread as it was horribly the same as i3....so I have not read that thread for few days already.

As it is... at this moment... both CIMB and M recognizes the huge DECLINE in profits come 2022. M took action and highlighted it. CIMB chose to remain silent on it.


okay? This for me is what's interesting.... for me lor...... 

Ok, ok.

Then, i dun understand... if the profit projections are similar,... why cimb still maintain 9.xx as TP while McQ is 5.40?

I must have missed something v big. Any idea?

Cimb target price is based on fy 21.

Macquarie target price is based on fy 22.

But the important thing is both of them agree that such extraordinary profit cannot be sustainable. And once it declines, the profit decline will be massive.

ChAOoz what's your opinion?

Cimb target price is based on fy 21.

Macquarie target price is based on fy 22.

But the important thing is both of them agree that such extraordinary profit cannot be sustainable. And once it declines, the profit decline will be massive.

ChAOoz what's your opinion?

Both have the same direction, but each choose their TP based on different timing.

Cimb choose to go with a TP at the max earning curve, while Big Mac choose to go with an ASP normalized assumption timing.

Both actually have same down direction long run. Not surprise to see  CIMB put it from overweight -> Neutral -> Underweight -> Sell in future to come.

Also i know you don't care about their TP, so when you read both report it will look like both telling the same story, but gave different ending conclusion haha.

Ok, tq.

I will monitor future changes.

These scientists and mathematicians as u know, can change their methods anytime.

Hi bro what’s ur comment on TG defying the double top pattern? Another strong rally coming?

Hi bro what’s ur comment on TG defying the double top pattern? Another strong rally coming?