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beebee1314
post Aug 12 2020, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 12 2020, 04:41 PM)
The risks are quite substantial if you trade hot stocks while working....

life never fair one... the hot stock you trade might turn for the worst just when something urgent happened at work... wink.gif
*
Had this yesterday. But lucky i already set selling price.
TSBoon3
post Aug 12 2020, 06:12 PM

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QUOTE(beebee1314 @ Aug 12 2020, 05:10 PM)
Had this yesterday. But lucky i already set selling price.
*
Ooo.. these are the risks you want to eliminate.
Not forgetting trading platform risk (hang or what not) too..
kevraul
post Aug 12 2020, 07:22 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 12 2020, 04:41 PM)
The risks are quite substantial if you trade hot stocks while working....

life never fair one... the hot stock you trade might turn for the worst just when something urgent happened at work... wink.gif
*
This is also unfortunately very true.
adren1
post Aug 12 2020, 07:26 PM

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so u all selling glove at losses?
TSBoon3
post Aug 13 2020, 11:53 AM

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Gold .....

Historical chart ....

user posted image

Weekly chart (do not recommend the daily chart ... too much fluctuations... tongue.gif

user posted image

and obviously it doesn't move up in a straight line... laugh.gif

The reasons to buy or go for the gold rush has been there for a WHILE already la...

Going for gold now just because of the 2000 mark ... err .... (best I not describe it la laugh.gif)

Anyway take this article posted almost a year ago... yup .... one year ago .... 20th July 2019

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...o-yields-spread

QUOTE
Gold, once mocked for its lack of yield and practical use, offers something the growing pile of negative-yielding bonds doesn’t – inflation protection.

Plus, it makes a great doorstop.

As holders of promissory notes issued by sovereigns and companies watch the real value of their savings drain away amid central bankers’ efforts to kick-start growth, the allure of one of the oldest investment assets has become ever stronger.

Data show just how popular gold has become – and how closely it’s linked to the downward spiral in yields.

For five years, resistance above US$1,350 an ounce was too much for bullion to overcome.

That changed in June, as it became clear the Federal Reserve was heading for a round of interest-rate cuts.

Spot prices touched US$1,453.09 yesterday, the highest level since May 2013 as global factory output slows and the market debates whether chairman Jerome Powell will cut rates by as much as 50 basis points in July.

Gold’s inflation-busting properties and low opportunity cost when interest rates drop have never been as important as now.

The inverse relationship between bullion’s price and US real rates expectations, as measured by the yield on five-year inflation-linked Treasuries, is the strongest it’s ever been.

The correlation measured over 60 days hit -0.7 as bullion climbed. — Bloomberg


Yes... it was around USD1450++ in July 2019.

Obviously ... jewelry sector will have its benefits but is seriously over rated and should not be used as the proxy to gain from the gold rush... past gold rush in 2009 proved that. The jewelry sector did benefit but it's not seriously gonna rival or match the glove sector profit explosion. Get real lor....

the sector was goreng recently until mummys and daddys cannot even recognise and it collapsed back.... it will be so risky to expect the sector to go boom boom pow again la..... unless of course you can convince the bursa goreng kaki to start simply frying once more...

yes, there is the gold etf and it has done relatively well the past one year. Buyers of the ETF would be happy...

user posted image

but the etf will have its risk....

and the main one ... it's illiquid .... the buy/sell spread can be really huge at times ....which poses a massive challenge if one wants to sell instantly.

So best is know and understand what you are betting on....

icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Aug 13 2020, 11:55 AM
TSBoon3
post Aug 13 2020, 02:51 PM

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https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/inv...ow-volume-sell/

Even the best stocks eventually start to waver and break down. It's a law of the market. So, recognizing those signals is crucial in learning how to invest with consistent success.

Don't focus simply on buying. Learn how to keep your hard-earned gains in a hot stock and sell at the right time.

Indeed, mastering IBD's more than two dozen sell rules will help you succeed over the long term in the stock market.

Some of those signs are as obvious as a hammer to the head, like a gap down on earnings.

When To Sell Stocks: Watch For Weak Rebounds

Others are more subtle, like a low-volume rebound after a sharp break. Normally, multiple sell signals coincide, giving investors both upside and downside reasons to sell a stock and lock in profits.

Let's take a look at Ambarella (AMBA) in the summer of 2015. The system-on-a-chip designer made a big move due to its relationship with GoPro (GPRO). GoPro, the hyped camera-on-a-stick maker, went public at a 24 IPO price and quickly ran up to 98.47. But that lofty valuation was quickly shattered. At one point, GoPro plummeted to an all-time low of 4.42 in April 2018, 95% off that all-time high.

Ambarella broke out above a 33.91 buy point in a cup with handle on Aug. 29, 2014 (please see a historical chart at MarketSmith). From there, the stock did a solid job of maintaining its 10-week line — a key support level.

The week ended Feb. 13, 2015, saw the stock close significantly below its 10-week line for the first time since the breakout. But volume was just slightly above average. When you see a severe break below the 10-week line in volume that jumps 40% above average, it's time to sell.

Three months later, the stock went into a climax top, allowing investors to lock in a big gain, while the stock was still advancing.

On June 22, shares plunged nearly 21% (1) to 94.36 in huge turnover. Short-seller firm Citron Research published a report calling its stock appreciation "ridiculous."

Investors couldn't be blamed for selling some shares that day given it was the stock's biggest one-day point break since the start of the move — a defense-type sell signal.

Low-Volume Rebound After Sharp Break

Over the next month, the stock would slowly rebound back to new highs. The price action was positive, but volume was clearly telling a different tale.

Only one day, July 23, showed a significant increase in volume vs. the 50-day average (2), but it was a stalling action. That day, shares rallied as much as 5.5% to hit a new high at 129.19, but closed with a meek 0.4% gain. Institutions anxiously unloaded their positions.

For Ambarella holders, this lack of volume on the rebound was a clear sign that institutions were no longer interested in buying large quantities of shares at higher price levels.

Two months later, the stock was cut in half.

user posted image
AVFAN
post Aug 13 2020, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 13 2020, 02:51 PM)
Let's take a look at Ambarella (AMBA) in the summer of 2015. The system-on-a-chip designer made a big move due to its relationship with GoPro (GPRO). GoPro, the hyped camera-on-a-stick maker, went public at a 24 IPO price and quickly ran up to 98.47. But that lofty valuation was quickly shattered. At one point, GoPro plummeted to an all-time low of 4.42 in April 2018, 95% off that all-time high.
ambarella, gopro... man, u invoked my sweet-bitter nights! laugh.gif

overall, i made money from these 2 at that time... left them sweethearts long time ago.


taikor, need a favor, again! biggrin.gif

the gloves top4 ... or just topgun, superman will do.

after today, i see some resemblance between the periods aug 11-13 and july 14-16.

if u can take a quick look... if what i see is half correct, we should get a short leg up tmr aug 14... like july 17.

like to hear from u, thanks.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 13 2020, 07:28 PM
TSBoon3
post Aug 13 2020, 08:41 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 13 2020, 07:24 PM)
ambarella, gopro... man, u invoked my sweet-bitter nights! laugh.gif

overall, i made money from these 2 at that time... left them sweethearts long time ago.
taikor, need a favor, again! biggrin.gif

the gloves top4 ... or just topgun, superman will do.

after today, i see some resemblance between the periods aug 11-13 and july 14-16.

if u can take a quick look... if what i see is half correct, we should get a short leg up tmr aug 14... like july 17.

like to hear from u, thanks.
*
Let's do just SuperMan ...

First ... kinda big thing ....

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...dexes-on-aug-31

The July correction chart...

user posted image

1. The stock actually opened higher (in fact gap up) but it still closed lower on the 15th.

* what does this indicates to you? *

2. that there was the inverted hammer happened on the 16th ....

3. Stock is still trading well within its uptrend channel...

Currently ....
user posted image

1. The stock is trading below the trendline .... a worry.

2. Volume ..... volume ... volume.... yesterday was kinda big.... the stock ended the day below the trendline....

3. It rebounded today (which is good) but the price action was rather disappointing... the low volume action disappointing.... and how the price ended wasn't it a disappointment?

* the implications... ??

anyway... the two trading periods stacked up....

user posted image

not really seeing what you are seeing .... sweat.gif sweat.gif


But that msci news ...... it should be positive....

watch the volume.... if the volume doesn't kick up and disappoints again ... err...........................


AVFAN
post Aug 13 2020, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 13 2020, 08:41 PM)
not really seeing what you are seeing ....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
But that msci news ...... it should be positive....

watch the volume.... if the volume doesn't kick up and disappoints again ... err...........................
*
i must be stretching what i see! laugh.gif

yes, i agree... it has gone below the trendline... in fact, same for the other 3.

but what concerns me as u pointed out is the VOLUME.

it is only doing 1/2 of what it did then.

harta same, TG is a bit better.

and of course, other compelling news matter - msci, GDP data...

so... will be watching tmr morning.

thanks for the pointers, as always. thumbup.gif
wts6819
post Aug 13 2020, 10:11 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 13 2020, 09:50 PM)
i must be stretching what i see! laugh.gif

yes, i agree... it has gone below the trendline... in fact, same for the other 3.

but what concerns me as u pointed out is the VOLUME.

it is only doing 1/2 of what it did then.

harta same, TG is a bit better.

and of course, other compelling news matter - msci, GDP data...

so... will be watching tmr morning.

thanks for the pointers, as always. thumbup.gif
*
Actually I also did see volume is one of the concern for glove counter to recover. Let's pray for the best as I'm stucked inside one of it as well. biggrin.gif
TSBoon3
post Aug 13 2020, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 13 2020, 09:50 PM)
i must be stretching what i see! laugh.gif

yes, i agree... it has gone below the trendline... in fact, same for the other 3.

but what concerns me as u pointed out is the VOLUME.

it is only doing 1/2 of what it did then.

harta same, TG is a bit better.

and of course, other compelling news matter - msci, GDP data...

so... will be watching tmr morning.

thanks for the pointers, as always. thumbup.gif
*
There's a possibility that what happened in the Amba example (there was a reason I posted that article.. tongue.gif) might happen to SuperMan. So if the rebounds further tomorrow on weak volume.. you really need to be cautious on playing long...

Reason I feel is they are getting edgy with the QR reports. See Harta and then now Superman. Hence I feel the market is expecting TopGun to produce good earnings (around 800 million plus) but that is not gonna satisfy the market. They really want strong blowout numbers. More than 1 billion will bring the whole gang gaga over glove stocks once more. Anything less would see reaction like Superman...


And yes there is the Harami cross in Superman but I don't trust the candle enough ( plus my candles trading is far from good) as it's not a conclusive candle, as it needs confirmaton. Are you seeing that?

But yeah.. it should trade higher but watch the volumes... where is the big kaki?
TSBoon3
post Aug 13 2020, 10:14 PM

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QUOTE(wts6819 @ Aug 13 2020, 10:11 PM)
Actually I also did see volume is one of the concern for glove counter to recover. Let's pray for the best as I'm stucked inside one of it as well. biggrin.gif
*
laugh.gif

GL!!
AVFAN
post Aug 13 2020, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 13 2020, 10:13 PM)
There's a possibility that what happened in the Amba example (there was a reason I posted that article.. tongue.gif)  might happen to SuperMan. So if the rebounds further tomorrow on weak volume.. you really need to be cautious on playing long...

Reason I feel is they are getting edgy with the QR reports. See Harta and then now Superman. Hence I feel the market is expecting TopGun to produce good earnings (around 800 million plus) but that is not gonna satisfy the market. They really want strong blowout numbers. More than 1 billion will bring the whole gang gaga over glove stocks once more. Anything less would see reaction like Superman...
And yes there is the Harami cross in Superman but I don't trust the candle enough ( plus my candles trading is far from good) as it's not a conclusive candle, as it needs confirmaton. Are you seeing that?


But yeah.. it should trade higher but watch the volumes... where is the big kaki?
*
harami cross in superman... maybe "harami cross like"! biggrin.gif

what i see with TG looks better.

i agree the market is expecting explosive PAT from TG... will be hard to satisfy all.

still, with some weeks to go, i find TG the best one to hold, if i were to hold any.

i did trade superman today, in/out 30min... ok, good for groceries tmr. tongue.gif

but i am reluctant to long superman.
TSBoon3
post Aug 14 2020, 07:17 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 13 2020, 10:26 PM)
harami cross in superman... maybe "harami cross like"! biggrin.gif

what i see with TG looks better.

i agree the market is expecting explosive PAT from TG... will be hard to satisfy all.

still, with some weeks to go, i find TG the best one to hold, if i were to hold any.

i did trade superman today, in/out 30min... ok, good for groceries tmr. tongue.gif

but i am reluctant to long superman.
*
For reference can refer to Nestle and Carlsberg cases...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/carl...-standard-index

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/nest...-standard-index

TSBoon3
post Aug 14 2020, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 13 2020, 10:26 PM)
harami cross in superman... maybe "harami cross like"! biggrin.gif

what i see with TG looks better.

*
QUOTE
Hence I feel the market is expecting TopGun to produce good earnings (around 800 million plus) but that is not gonna satisfy the market. They really want strong blowout numbers. More than 1 billion will bring the whole gang gaga over glove stocks once more. Anything less would see reaction like Superman...


Thinking about what I wrote to you last night...

I thought I better go over the numbers again ..... post #2479

Kenanga valuation ...

QUOTE
We had earlier raised TP from RM25.00 to RM32.00 as per our last report on Monday 13th July. The higher TP was based on 21.5x CY21E’s raised EPS of 152.3 sen


To put it into simpler perspective, current 4 qtrs (trailing) eps from TopGun = 24.19 sen (*taken from msiastockbiz)
And they are using 152.3 sen....

massive, massive growth projected ......

and then I realised the pesky CY21e.... wtf wrong with these people? vmad.gif

need to review their figures again ..

user posted image

152.3 sen eps, TopGun has 2.707 billion shares, therefore their estimated CY21s profit should be 4122 million.... or on average 1030 million per quarter...

Well... if that's the case... TopGun really needs to perform .... sweat.gif
In order, for these buggers to really go gaga over TopGun.... I reckon TopGun should hit profits of more than 1.2 Billion! (1.3 Billion profit will make them see stars tongue.gif )

Such a number will easily beat all estimates... and cause them to frantically revise all that they written....

Can ah?

if they don't ... the risk is that TopGun will see another meh .... and then follow SuperMan and Harta trading...


TG numbers again

2019 Q1 81 million 2020 Q1 111 million
2019 Q2 82 million 2020 Q2 115 million
2019 Q3 125million 2020 Q3 347 million
2019 Q4 141million 2020 Q4 _________




waaa.... both in the red ....
ChAOoz
post Aug 14 2020, 10:24 AM

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Today might finally break the support for those big gloves.

Not enough buy floor support after that wed big break. But atleast tg founder try to establish a floor, kudos to him.
TSBoon3
post Aug 14 2020, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 14 2020, 10:24 AM)
Today might finally break the support for those big gloves.

Not enough buy floor support after that wed big break. But atleast tg founder try to establish a floor, kudos to him.
*
To be honest, I don't look at such issues ... wink.gif

The volume has been my concern .....

the lack of volume...
then .... fall on heavier volume...
rebounded on lower volume....
and volume's looking much heavier at the moment.....

and in case, you do not notice...
I don't think I have drawn any supports/resistance lines on my charts .... blush.gif
ChAOoz
post Aug 14 2020, 11:46 AM

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Yeah notice you never put any support /resistance line. But volume indeed going down for all those glove counter.

Sometime luck also, later GDP numbers out. If bad, day end won't see much reversal already.

Your climax top seemed still hold true.
TSBoon3
post Aug 14 2020, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 14 2020, 11:46 AM)
Yeah notice you never put any support /resistance line. But volume indeed going down for all those glove counter.

Sometime luck also, later GDP numbers out. If bad, day end won't see much reversal already.

Your climax top seemed still hold true.
*
The biggest worry is .... where is the big kaki?
If the glove makers prospects are so good...
we should see sign of them mopping up the shares (leaving their footprints in the volume) .....
but so far ...... price action has been poor ..... does this indicate that the big boys weren't interested?

today... sellers have been more aggressive ....
TSBoon3
post Aug 14 2020, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 14 2020, 11:46 AM)
Yeah notice you never put any support /resistance line. But volume indeed going down for all those glove counter.

Sometime luck also, later GDP numbers out. If bad, day end won't see much reversal already.

Your climax top seemed still hold true.
*
Regarding climax top ..... it's not 'mine' la .... I just remember couple of pointers ....

anyway... it's googable that phrase .... tongue.gif

https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/inv...losses-pile-up/

QUOTE
When your stock shows signs of a climax top, you should be on red alert. Probably you have big gains in the stock, and there's no reason you should fritter them away. First, what is a climax top? It's just like it sounds, a final thrust higher after a long, successful run-up.

How long a run-up? At least 18 weeks from a first- or second-stage base. If the stock launches from a later-stage base, it can begin a climax top at any time.

Here are the signs of a climax:

• Big blast. Near the end, the climax-topping stock may put in accelerating price gains in a short time, perhaps 25% to 50% in just two or three weeks. Also look for seven rises in eight days, or eight gains in 10 days.

• Broken channel line — on the upside. Try drawing a line touching the upper end of a rising price channel, beginning near the breakout and connecting at least three points. If the stock rises above the upper channel line spanning several months, it's a sell signal.

• Exhaustion gap: After a long climb with big gains, your stock suddenly gaps higher. This shouldn't be confused with a breakaway gap. The breakaway gap often occurs on a breakout and is a bullish sign.

• Largest daily point gain. Like the exhaustion gap, check for such a point gain appearing after a big rally. The stock's rise should bring it into the climax-top time range, 18 weeks for an early-stage base.

• Record-high volume. Or at least the heaviest volume seen in the entire run-up.

• The 200-day moving average. When a stock rises 70% to 100% above its 200-day line, it's giving you a sign of a climax.



Anyway, how many of the points did we see?



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