nobody knows.

if someone knows, someone will not tell us too.

look at the chart, it broke previous high, is that a fakeout? is that a real breakout? I want to know too.



This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Jul 5 2020, 02:27 PM

"know"...

only time travelers and demigods "know.

but really, all the indicators i see with my simple eyes do point to higher.

cimb gave it 9.80, ammb 10.40.... others expect 12, 14...

so, we will just see what we will see.

i personally find supermx a superb trading counter lately, hope it continues to kangaroo higher.

opps i rephase, do the charts indicates that superman is crashing down soon?

hahahahaha

anyway, lets hope the glove bubble can maintain for few more months then only burst

IBs are really giving them high prices ehhhh. I also feel like jumping in but the gain doesnt seem much compared to the risk one might anticipate

a lot of demigods in the market recently ehhh, and a lot more followers ehhh

ops, forgot to quote you into the same reply. if gloves dive, others dive together.

gloves are like techs holding up everything in US

my 2cents la. let's hope not

oh no... most local IBs gave "low".

public bank on 26 june, just a week ago:

"hold 11.10"... harta went gangbusters to reach 16.00.

maybank 30 june:

spot on for topglove but all the rest were beaten soundly.

only this aussie co. has been gungho, gave topglove rm30.4.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/55915.jsp

the fans are cheering becos they expect the 2Q profits to be monstrous.
just take an average p/e, u get high TP's.
the sours are saying ponzi, collapsing, vaccines coming, war coming...
that's the fun of it... take yr pick!

i think now until few days before QR release is goreng time.

and the rumored spot price is higghhh.

the one from MQ was new right, maybe IBs gonna revise them? people are really having confidence on the gloves

really feel like doing that but chasing high isn't my forte. gonna sit out with popcorn and watch.

or you have some secret formulas to share eh

somebody once told me that trade only stocks above ma200

Back test on the Mayban chart lo .... ( Mayban again... yeah it is sure one good example on testing .... )

The longer stretch from the chart when Maybank was above the 200ma was from end 2016 to end 2017.

Maybank SHOT up from 8.20 to 9.80. A possible profit of ... err ... 1.60 to play for....
The assumption is ... one is so chun to get in at 8.20 and then chunchun sell at 9.80....
get it any other price... the profit diminish....
dumb dumb get at 9.80.... even with the dividend collected... still losing money....

See how unreliable the 200ma is?

*cough* ....*cough* ..... Superman....

Now I really, really hate doing this.... esp commenting on that so called siput.... those that know me, know m past postings here explaining why one should really, really be on the alert on the nonsense insinuations he has always had been making.... (LOL!.. I am also not a fansi of Tan Teng Boo (icapital) (not a fansi is really an understatement... )

Anyway.... I do not simply discredit ppl without any proper reasoning....

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyi...oon_Yew_Yin.jsp

His argument... dud to the solid demand of the gloves, these glove makers are now in a position where they can raise their ASP.

No problem... I can understand this .... this reason as a catalyst to be bullish on the stock is really acceptable. No problem.
However, the problem is valuation....
Ah... when things are bullish... no one WILL really look into the fine details.
It is what it is...
When market is bull... no one looks for potential red flags or what not...
This is how the market works...

but........



let's look at the finer details for fun la....
why not? Sunday is Funday ma...

So KYY price target 13.50 or 18.00 .....
his calculations is based on the assumption that the profit can increase by 15% per month....

READ it as it is.....
15% per month...

and then he compounds it NINE consecutive months....


LOL!


If I compound it few more months... I can easily whack a potential target price of rm20 or even more...


Now can we think how ridiculous on what he is saying here?
So what he said... if first month the profit is 514 million... after compounding it 9 months.... profit for the 9th month should then be 1524.
LOL!!!
KAKAKAKAKAKA !!!

From 514 million to 1524 million....

Best rocket way to estimate the future profit of a company...............................



Last time I read ridiculous reports where analyst based their profit estimates on 35% CAGR for the next 3 years.....
KYY is now basing the profit estimate on an annual growth of at least 300%!!!


Sure win lo......

chart atm is pretty bull...
siput writeups lagi bull.........................................

Ok.... maybe what I wrote is too susah to understand....


This is what he wrote....



See? After all his calculations, his ESTIMATE EPS is 90sen.

Now this is what Superman is doing at it is....



Based on current twelve months (or trailing 12 months) Superman eps is only 10.37 Sen.

Ok an eps of 10.37 is way, way to low.... maybe an estimate eps of between 20 to 30 sen is more acceptable....


BUT that bugger estimate eps is 90 sen wo...

90 sen.....

can understand how rocket the estimate is....





But anyway..... market is hot.... lol..... anything bull also is usually accepted...
all people is interested is...........how much is the Target Price....
no one cares how the target price is derived......





This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 14 2020, 08:28 AM

I often read all these posts like novels. too many sheep in the market following and praising their own 'siputs' like you said and what I learnt these years is to following my own informed instinct. others' earnings are theirs and not mine to begin with and I'll just follow my own footsteps although like I said, I'm still learning

kyy, like usual, writes many posts to lure his supporters in because why not, gloves are hot. recently the post of charlie munger saying that teaching youngsters to trade is like feeding them heroin came up again. many traders are in for the sensation they get in trading. while one should always educate themselves before going in, many dont.

i didn't beat the market by a huge margin, but better than EPF for the previous years, not good enough, relearn everything again and again. buy & hold, errr, i dont know. need years to prove or maybe trade in the right time will yield me better results?

ma200 wise, many books are too claiming its holy grail and actually, it doesnt really do anything when I was buying nor selling.

test test test, no more mco, not much time can be used on charts and balance sheets d. sit tight and see how things gonna do

i agree kyy nos. are way too optimistic.
it's almost imaginary that anyone can simultaneously incr production, raise prices every month and command an exceptionally high p/e.
with no black swan event of any kind!

supermax, now that it is at rm9.41, a lot of it is priced in, imo.
i can't see it passing rm11.
ok for me since i dived in when it was around 7.
just need to be mindful of the coming reversal.

but i think a lot people do understand how the TP's are derived.
just that in the heat and euphoria of things, they accept a higher TP more readily.
moreover, there aren't many sectors u can put yr money in these days in bursa - can't do construction, banks, developers, consumer, o&g...
just like in us markets - can't do airlines, hotels, banks, manufacturing, oil&gas... all $ end up in nasdaq, some counters with p/e's in the hundreds.
that's the nature of pandemic stock markets!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 5 2020, 05:33 PM

If elephants can indeed fly like how KYY projects, it would be silly if the govt does not impose any windfall tax on businesses whose profit can grow at 15% compounded for 9 months.... I can still remember how the palm oilers were hit with the windfall tax.

Such projection is seriously absurd...

Takeaway from margma interview in bfm

- qoq +220% and will go upwards from here
- asp increases 40/50/60% and expected more
- labour shortage is a problem + more initiatives have been done to attract local labours
- in the 80s/12 workers needed for 1mil production
- now 1.7 workers are needed
- aim for 1.2 with automated machine in near future
- all glove makers are over-capacity and capex is otw
- orders are over 8 months solely for medical. Other sectors like food handlers/dentist/tatoo artists, etc are currently rejected for orders

Pandemic will only keep happening from the perspective of epidemiologists, so with the expansion of more factories and more awareness about such possibility, maybe it's not so crazy about the future of such valuation?

Firstly... try see it as it is.... without any bias...lol..cos I am guessing you now have vested interest.

1. Q-Q comparisons are meaningless of course m

2. Yes, of course one can expect some increase in ASP but there's only so much one can increase price. That's business. Anything more than 30% is beyond my opinion of reasonable.

3. Add in the 30% increase in asp, one is Not gonna get anywhere close to the insane projections made by that kyy. It's rocket. No business net profit can grow on a 15% compounded monthly. It is logically not possible.

Profit will be good for the glove sector no doubt but I reckon you should keep your feet on the ground and not rely such fantasy profit projection..

Do you ever back tested bullish earnings projections? Yeah, I know. Nobody does. No one cares. As long as these earnings estimate projections help to justify the sexy price targets, everybody is happy. All they want to hear is the high price target and they compare it versus the current price. The higher the better. It is what it is.

But if you ever do back test the data.. you will find that most of the earnings estimates are never hit.... Lol... but yet, nobody cares. Lol.

Ps.. dont worry what I say la... sentiments are way too bullish...

It’s about time someone raise the question of current valuation for glove stocks.

Look at how much the market cap has increased vs expected windfall profits..


Search on shopee or lazada how much is the selling price now..

😅

Haha, I was curious and dont really plan to do anything. We are discussing and I like discussion. All opinions are very much valued.


CIMB posted this on 9/6. net profit of 3.7b

and nope, I didnt backtest any earning projections and at most, I merely look at the numbers and that's it. The report changed a lot since their last on 13/5.

from TP 10.4 to 25 and to be honest, since I've missed the train, my interest is solely on research purpose.

for my own reference purposes

QR 11/6


report 13/5


report 9/6


the profit is gonna be good like you said, and it makes me wonder, how high can the gloves still go?

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Jul 6 2020, 09:18 AM

Ah.... thanks for sharing. Let me show you what I will do.

1. The as it is facts....

current Net Profit for the most recent quarter = 347.985 million,
current 3 quarters net profit = 575.004 million.

That's the fact as reported by TG.
So current 3 quarters net profit for 2020 is 575.004 million

2. Look at that report. What's the estimate for 2020?

It's old forecast was 864 million. Which I agree looks way too conservative...but then they adjust to 1371 million.

So what they are saying they are forecasting TG 2020 Q4 net profit to be 1371 - 575.004 = 795.996million...

WOW!!!
So geng meh?

Ok. Put it into context.

Which means, TG 2020 net profit per quarter will looks like.... 111.426 >> 115.683 >>> 347.985 >>> 795.million!

is that realistic?

Q3 net profit of 347.985 million.... are they already running at full capacity or not?
So in terms of production, how much can they increase?
How many new lines can they run?

Ok the USD is higher. It helps. But between Q3 and the next report Q4, has the USD increase or decrease vs the RM?

Add in 'higher' ASP, is it possible their net profit fly from 347.985 million to 795 milliomn?????

Can meh????

3. Now the key is 2020 estimates doesn't even matter!!!

LOL! The target price is NOT gonna be based on 2020 estimate..
Industry standard mah....
LOL!

The TP for TG is based on 2021 estimates....


4. What is 2021 estimate numbers?

A net profit of 3.71 Billion!

LMAO!

Putting it into perspective, CIMB hot shot analyst is saying on average, for the next year, TG will be roughly 3.71 /4 = 927 million per quarter.





There. But then, I am confused. For such a record breaking, incredible feat, they reckon TG should be valued at 22 times earnings multiple.

No. No. NO....

How can they be so farking conservative! For such geng chow performance, they should at least hormat sikit and give TG a 44x multiple la.

Why not? Why not 44 PE?

therefor...TP for TG should be rm50.00


LOL!

Just kidding the last few bits..... but clearly, it's all utter BS.

But shhhh.......don't kacau others...

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 6 2020, 10:16 AM

Here will be a good exercise....
Say you have Superman...

So how and when will sell for a profit?

Paper trade that!