This is called a secular trend. In terms of charts, you can look at some Elliot Wave theories on this. I don't want to pretend to be an expert n talk bullshit.

Fundamentally though, I believe gold price will get much higher in RM terms within the next 5 years.

The one chart that I do look at of gold is the weekly chart drawn against the USD.

The bullish ascending triangle break of 1400 happened near end June recently.

I would never use the MYR chart because the need to factor in the USDMYR factor.

One extra risk factor. One extra headache.

Yes.. Basically 2 things in play in the chart above.

Gold vs USD
USD vs MYR

Long term Im bullish both gold and USD based on fundamental factors..

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Sep 26 2019, 12:45 PM

If one followed the usd$gold the entry would have been around 1400 or so.

However, you should be aware both the gold and the usd are pretty much 'controlled' items. (Duckie would probably use the manipul... word 🤣)

Regarding Mayban....



The strategy...

First. To have a target of 10... for me... it's right off the charts. Which means ur strategy is dictated by the chart...

If that was the case, the buy is supported by the fact the stock did have a support of around 8.50 recently. However how strong of a support is that? I for one, would be worried of the immediate down channel which is looking rather prominent.. Can u see that channel/trend?

If basing on this I would be asking if the risk/reward justifies the trade. Doesn't look like too much meat there....

** here is the chart **



**addum**

so if one buy at 8.50 with the target set at 10, the potential upside is 1.50 or about 17% ...
and the stop loss? 7%? 7.5%? 10%?
The gain is not that much , yes?

Yeah dividends can help... but then this is a time factor issue where if it was me, I would probably factor in other stuff...
for example, previously at 10, Mayban was trading with a trailing dps of 57 sen or a pretty generous 5.7% yield. Yet here we are, despite that generous 5.7% yield, the stock is now at 8.44 and the yield is 6.75% (higher yield due to the falling stock price). So definitely the dividend doesn't seem to help the 'investor' at all. Of course this could drag on forever, if one starts insisting by holding the stock on a longer time frame, such as more than one year... but then... this would have gone against the initial strategy of betting to win 1.50 from this mayban trade, yes?

The meat in the initial trade isn't really that fat in the first place. Now if I have to hold it longer, then my compounded returns would be down for this stock play....
and then what about the DRP factor if I were to hold it on a longer time frame? Would earnings dilutions be a factor (I have yet to look see into this...so... )

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stocks are priced to its future prospects... right now, the banking sector is not looking too good as global banks are cutting its rates. A lower Opr from Bank N would cause lower loan interest rates which means the risk is that Bank earnings would decline in the near future. Less earnings would means the possibly of lesser dividends. Adding to its problems, its already been reported that loan growths are already declining...

So.. atm.. I would not jump in.

Just sharing la... I could always be wrong by being too conservative....

And this ain't an attack.

now oil and gas index is bullish. oil and gas maintenance should be good? carimin? local company will be benefited from petronas?

How about :

1. Buy 8.50
2. Sell 9.00
3. Repeat

And if stock falls below 8.50, turn into "I'm long term investing"? Good DY counter and able to create passive income stream.

Haha.. Move reply to ur home ground issit?

But seriously thanks for sharing your thoughts. Something for me to think about..

To be honest I wasn't really considering the technical part so much. Arguable even whether can call it a trade, more like investment. But for discussion let's call it a trade. At the end of the day it's all about making money.

I guess when I go in Maybank, I was calculating target is RM10 and I do see the downside risk potentialy going down to RM7.50 based on historical prices.

As u say this is where dividends help improve the loss reward calculation.

So when I keyed in order at RM8.40 (I didn't get hit btw), a very good outcome will be:

Price go up to 10 bucks maybe by September next year + final FY19 dividends of 30 sen (FY18 was 32 sen) in May 20. For a total RM1.90 profits, or a 22. 6% gain.

Of cuz this is dream one..😆

But another thing, bank valuations are commonly measured by price-book, n current PB is about 1.2 which is 2016 level n 2016 was a good time to buy Maybank.

Now on the downside risk, there is no cut loss price in this strategy. Cutting loss will be a mistake. You average down! (haha.. I know u completely against this). U do the Warren Buffett cut loss i. e. You cut loss not based on price but only if there is any material change to the business that makes u realize this business is gone case. So need to keep watch on the business tho. In the meantime, the challenge is to stomach the volatility.

As the price goes down, the risk reward calculation gets better. So the strategy is buy more. The main risk control in this strategy is position size. How much % of Maybank u allow in your portfolio. I would say 10-20%. This is also where u don't want to run out of bullets too early n max your allocation

Fundamentally, it's a challenging year so far for the banks. I'm expecting slightly lower earnings and slightly lower dividends FY19. Maybe 54-55 Sen divvy (25 sen already paid). FY20, market is expecting worse based on the price so far. But the market could be wrong and things can quickly change.

Now u can tell me that I'm being stupid.. 😆

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Oct 6 2019, 05:41 PM

Lol.

Me cannot make such trades.

Move is better lo. Else ppl complain lots, how?

Here is one extra thing to note... that 7.50 thingy..

Open your historical chart ..look at the 10 year chart... From 2013 the stock had a multi year correction...a slow multi year correction to your 7.50...

And guess what... during this period...dividends declined...

Like I say b4, dividends a good bonus but.. if and when dividends decline... the stock can have a huge decline...

So jaga lo

This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 6 2019, 06:18 PM

The last 2 paragraphs... This is where we defer.
I am like win big or don't bother....

when the stock trigger some of ur own rule example higher than 10 pe then sell. of course not necessary this rule la. got other like when the company revenue dropping compare to last q then sell.

only stock trigger ur criteria then sell lo

If I can beat ASB I happy already..

But this week is quite an important week, with US China trade discussion and Malaysia Federal Budget. This will impact my outlook for next year.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Oct 6 2019, 09:20 PM

ah boon kor....

.... when banking sector prospect improves, probably you will need to buy maybank at rm9, not 8.50 . but of cause, comparing the risk, riding the uptrend is better than caching a falling knife. so can we safely assume you are actually not a risk taker. can we?

remember when axiata drop to a low of 3.50? things were pretty bad for them right? as a smart trader, is better not to touch at the point where no silver lining could be seen. right. ok. no trader will ever buy at the bottom point. so we are ought to ride the wave. what wave? the wave of axiata is illogical. cimb... same case.




so the point is... sometimes wait till neck become giraffe also cannot find a good stock to trade. once found a good one to trade, wreck it kaw kaw

This post has been edited by spring onion: Oct 6 2019, 10:47 PM

talking about ASB. i wonder how ASB will fork out 8% this coming dividend payout. LOL

sell asset to give dividend? or declare a much lower dividend and let everybody hates PH for maybe a year or 2 before giving them sweet candies?

looking at the current situation, next year EPF dividend payout. 4.2%. ?

Last years ASB dividends was "only" 6.5% with a "bonus" of 0.5%.

On EPF, we still hv another quarter to go.

just fyi .....

I did write on Maybank several times before. post #1878 That post highlighted the severe stock down trend back then. The classical decline in earnings and also the declining dividends.... the issues on Maybank before OCT 2016.

the chart posted then....



and then .... post #1911 ... where I did give a hint .... that the down trend has changed..... (also do read the comments Smurf made (my hint was given in a reply to him) (post was made on 11 Oct 2016 )

quote:



you can refer to this other chart ... see how the trend changed in Oct 2016?



Notice how the earnings improved in Nov. There was no longer the double digit declines in profits.
Then notice the huge turnaround, the huge improvement in earnings in Feb 2017..




So for me, I think it's not necessary to jump into the stock which is in a clear downtrend.... instead, perhaps it's better to kiv the stock, put it in the stock watchlist, and patiently wait for the change in stock trend.

Well here's a chart of a stock .....






well? Is a yes? or a no?

Im wondering back then in 2015-2017, assuming Maybank was on your watch list n based only on the available information then (price n Financials) when would you be brave to buy?

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Oct 7 2019, 09:36 PM

If I already like the stock, yes. Higher lows, breaking resistance. Hentam.