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Cubalagi
post Sep 25 2019, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Sep 25 2019, 02:03 PM)
user posted image

Any chart expert here? Gold broke resistance on a 20 year chart. I wonder whether such a long time frame applies in trading
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This is called a secular trend. In terms of charts, you can look at some Elliot Wave theories on this. I don't want to pretend to be an expert n talk bullshit.

Fundamentally though, I believe gold price will get much higher in RM terms within the next 5 years.


Cubalagi
post Sep 26 2019, 12:44 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 25 2019, 05:07 PM)
The one chart that I do look at of gold is the weekly chart drawn against the USD.

The bullish ascending triangle break of 1400 happened near end June recently.

I would never use the MYR chart because the need to factor in the USDMYR factor.

One extra risk factor. One extra headache.

icon_rolleyes.gif
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Yes.. Basically 2 things in play in the chart above.

Gold vs USD
USD vs MYR

Long term Im bullish both gold and USD based on fundamental factors..

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Sep 26 2019, 12:45 PM
Cubalagi
post Oct 6 2019, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 6 2019, 10:09 AM)
Regarding Mayban....

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So.. atm.. I would not jump in.

Just sharing la... I could always be wrong by being too conservative....

And this ain't an attack. tongue.gif
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Haha.. Move reply to ur home ground issit?

But seriously thanks for sharing your thoughts. Something for me to think about..

To be honest I wasn't really considering the technical part so much. Arguable even whether can call it a trade, more like investment. But for discussion let's call it a trade. At the end of the day it's all about making money.

I guess when I go in Maybank, I was calculating target is RM10 and I do see the downside risk potentialy going down to RM7.50 based on historical prices.

As u say this is where dividends help improve the loss reward calculation.

So when I keyed in order at RM8.40 (I didn't get hit btw), a very good outcome will be:

Price go up to 10 bucks maybe by September next year + final FY19 dividends of 30 sen (FY18 was 32 sen) in May 20. For a total RM1.90 profits, or a 22. 6% gain.

Of cuz this is dream one..😆

But another thing, bank valuations are commonly measured by price-book, n current PB is about 1.2 which is 2016 level n 2016 was a good time to buy Maybank.

Now on the downside risk, there is no cut loss price in this strategy. Cutting loss will be a mistake. You average down! (haha.. I know u completely against this). U do the Warren Buffett cut loss i. e. You cut loss not based on price but only if there is any material change to the business that makes u realize this business is gone case. So need to keep watch on the business tho. In the meantime, the challenge is to stomach the volatility.

As the price goes down, the risk reward calculation gets better. So the strategy is buy more. The main risk control in this strategy is position size. How much % of Maybank u allow in your portfolio. I would say 10-20%. This is also where u don't want to run out of bullets too early n max your allocation

Fundamentally, it's a challenging year so far for the banks. I'm expecting slightly lower earnings and slightly lower dividends FY19. Maybe 54-55 Sen divvy (25 sen already paid). FY20, market is expecting worse based on the price so far. But the market could be wrong and things can quickly change.

Now u can tell me that I'm being stupid.. 😆

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Oct 6 2019, 05:41 PM
Cubalagi
post Oct 6 2019, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 6 2019, 06:17 PM)
The last 2 paragraphs... This is where we defer.
I am like win big or don't bother....

tongue.gif
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If I can beat ASB I happy already..

But this week is quite an important week, with US China trade discussion and Malaysia Federal Budget. This will impact my outlook for next year.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Oct 6 2019, 09:20 PM
Cubalagi
post Oct 7 2019, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(spring onion @ Oct 6 2019, 10:44 PM)
talking about ASB. i wonder how ASB will fork out 8% this coming dividend payout. LOL

sell asset to give dividend? or declare a much lower dividend and let everybody hates PH for maybe a year or 2 before giving them sweet candies?

looking at the current situation, next year EPF dividend payout. 4.2%. ? rolleyes.gif
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Last years ASB dividends was "only" 6.5% with a "bonus" of 0.5%.

On EPF, we still hv another quarter to go.
Cubalagi
post Oct 7 2019, 09:35 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 7 2019, 10:17 AM)
just fyi .....

quote:
you can refer to this other chart ... see how the trend changed in Oct 2016?

user posted image

user posted image

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Im wondering back then in 2015-2017, assuming Maybank was on your watch list n based only on the available information then (price n Financials) when would you be brave to buy?

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Oct 7 2019, 09:36 PM
Cubalagi
post Oct 7 2019, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 7 2019, 10:29 AM)
Well here's a chart of a stock .....
[attachmentid=10329366]
well? Is a yes? or a no?
cool2.gif
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If I already like the stock, yes. Higher lows, breaking resistance. Hentam.
Cubalagi
post Oct 7 2019, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 7 2019, 10:10 PM)
So therefore, I have never address the issue of whether I am brave enough to buy...

Again, back to Maybank once more. Back in Oct 2016, as highlighted in the forum, the earnings turned around was visible and the stock broke out of its downtrend, well surely it was an opportunity to buy, yes?
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But momentum only started turning in Nov 16 and even then there was a price pullback. Earnings were still falling in the Nov 16 results. The only all clear was in end Feb 17, where Maybank price was at around 8.20-8.30. Agree?

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Oct 7 2019, 10:24 PM
Cubalagi
post Oct 8 2019, 12:57 AM

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QUOTE(spring onion @ Oct 8 2019, 12:21 AM)
ok. here is a golden question to ask. what would be the best time to jump in?

11 oct or earlier as the trend have move sideways instead of going further down. AKA, downtrend broken

or

24th where the declining NP has ended with a surprise 50% jump in NP?
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24th Nov would still be a scary time. See that high volatility in the month. That was crazy Donald Trump suprise win.

So easy to say in hindsight to go in, but noise makes it hard emotionally.


This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Oct 8 2019, 12:59 AM
Cubalagi
post Oct 8 2019, 01:03 AM

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QUOTE(spring onion @ Oct 8 2019, 12:30 AM)
to late to track feb 17. already uphill 5th gear, can roll back anytime (but somehow global economic sentimental was good) that's why its a hell tough to trade such stock.
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Haha. Then technicals probably saying overbought.. Then wait lagi..

Finally buy at 10.50.. 😆

Cubalagi
post Nov 18 2019, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 18 2019, 12:02 PM)
Don't quite follow articles like this as it's never paints the correct picture. Price to book valuation? Lol. Who on earth really uses such a yardstick?

Look if you had followed some postings made by smurf or me, we had note for a long while that earnings in general had been piss poor.

That's the fact. When your main/big name stocks are experiencing declining earnings, you cannot expect the general market to be moving up. Many logically would have cashed out.
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Price to Book is used for bank valuations, not really good for other stocks.

I cashed out last year already, but started to come slowly in this year, first Reit, then utilities (Tenaga n Malakof), then bank (Maybank), and then OnG (Velesto n Hibiscus).. Boleh?

Cubalagi
post Nov 18 2019, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 18 2019, 01:01 PM)
laugh.gif

Not a fan at all of Maybank.

It's like taking big money to try make small money. : P
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I know.. 😆

But for Noob like me, it's a lower risk entry on contrarian expectations that thing may get better at end of the year and up to mid next year.

With PB ratio of 1.2+, Maybank is trading at 3Q16 valuations. My estimate was downside is limited at this level n this will be further mitigated by dividends. So I went in. At current price n with the last interim dividend, I'm still about breakeven in this investment. So now just wait.

That's my thought process lar.. 😆


Cubalagi
post Feb 5 2020, 04:10 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 5 2020, 10:25 AM)
post #

Utterly BS. tongue.gif

If I were to want to bottom trade a dead fish in AirAsia, I definitely would want to know what the f is going on.
I might be a trader but I am not a headless gambler. Need to address the risk involved in the trade.

The US50 million was paid to sponsored sports team NOT owned by AirAsia. Not owned by AirAsia. Keyword.
That was in 2012.

Why would AirBus make such a sponsorship? And that F1 team, was practically an unknown....

I remember that huge contract signed by AirAsia to buy 200 new Airbus planes in 2011. Keyword 2011. AirAsia buys 200 new planes, AirBus next year sponsors Ah Tony F1 team.

How much was the deal? US18 billion if I remembered correctly.

What was so absurd about the deal was AirAsia backlog of planes to be delivered as already a lot. Something like 80 or 90 planes yet to be taken delivery by AirAsia. Was there a need to order so many planes when AirAsia had already so many planes not yet taken delivery. Cannot brain some more was back then AirAsia cashflow was so bloody poor.

I laughed my ass of some more because AirAsia had less than 1 billion in cash then. A mountain of debts. More than 10 billion. And it prudently issue a new order of planes worth 60 billion ringgit.

Now we hear that the next year after AirAsia made the insanely massive order with AirBus, AirBus then made the 'ahem US50 million sponsorship' to a dunno what F1 team.

KNS. Exactly like this also can.

Outlook? How can any big investor trust Ah Tony now? And its so laughable when he denies it and even stupidly claim that there are people jealous? Serious? AirBus already admitted guilt by paying BILLIONS in fine la.

( Over the years, you could add in the airport tax issue, the Fuel Cost Surcharge which AirAsia raised like hell a few years ago, the squabble with Mavcom and then we have India AirAsia issue )

Ok, what about AirAsia itself. That Ah Tony built AirAsia out of nothing is utterly crap! AirAsia was financially engineered to be big. Borrow and borrow like hell.

Now any logical business mind would know that such strategy cannot continue as it is forever. Debts needed to be repaid, CONSTANTLY. The past couple of years, saw Ah Tony taking the debts engineering to a newer level. Sell and leaseback. That was actually NOT a bad idea but then AirAsia did the unthinkable. From the sale of planes, it paid out a huge portion out as dividends to its investors/shareholders. Mind blowing.

Now the amount paid for all these financial costs (bank borrowing + leasing) runs into hundreds of millions per year. With the China virus. If planes don't fly, AirAsia cash flow would be hit very bad. How to service its finance?

And Ah Tony bets so heavily on AirAsia hedging..... any wrong swing, AirAsia loses millions! Oil recently had a missive swing up and down. Do I want to guess how well Tony bet this round? The USMYR too had a big swing lately too....

Fundamentally, not smart at all to bet on AirAsia.

Chartwise? Well am I a trader who bets solely on the charts? Charts say jump, I jump?
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I always enjoy your writing.. 😆

Cubalagi
post Feb 13 2020, 11:58 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 13 2020, 11:07 PM)
Woahhh!!!

Wait a minute... What I wrote there was taken from a series of reply to a post on April 2019, explaining why I thought it was not a good idea to bet on ppbank when it was around 22++.

OK?
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Public bank with 4.5% DY, at current situation means price of RM15.35..wah! I definitely buy.
Cubalagi
post Feb 14 2020, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 13 2020, 11:07 PM)
Woahhh!!!

Wait a minute... What I wrote there was taken from a series of reply to a post on April 2019, explaining why I thought it was not a good idea to bet on ppbank when it was around 22++.

OK?
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Public bank with 4.5% DY, at current situation means price of RM15.35..wah! I definitely buy.

But KLCI probably at close to 1300 then..
Cubalagi
post Feb 14 2020, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(SwarmTroll @ Feb 14 2020, 02:40 PM)
PB considered good buy? Its lower than 52 weeks low already, and Maybank has returned upwards. Why is PB falling so much?
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52 weeks only? It's now very close to 5 year low.
Cubalagi
post Feb 15 2020, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Feb 15 2020, 09:16 PM)
It rose from rm4 to RM5 since 1998 until 2 years ago then start coming down...uptrend almost 20 years leh
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So can buy or not?
Cubalagi
post Feb 4 2022, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 4 2022, 09:27 AM)
not bad eh?

user posted image
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I thought u don't touch OnG? ;-)
Cubalagi
post Feb 4 2022, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 4 2022, 11:05 AM)
Btw... I am a trader. When I don't trade, I still practice.

And it wasn't based just cos it was an OnG stock. Refer the sequence of postings previously.
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So u think Bumi Armada can up much more or not? Based on technicals.
Cubalagi
post Feb 4 2022, 04:14 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 4 2022, 02:36 PM)

If I went in the around the 46 sen region, I would be waiting to exit at this point.... ie any sign of weakness then I am out.
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So early to take profit ah?


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