QUOTE(dasecret @ Aug 1 2017, 11:24 AM)
Thanks for the heads up, I prefer RSP so there's less tendency to miss top up or affected by greed/fear. But live help say RSP won't be available until much later, like next year. So looks like I'll be doing manual top ups
I think there's some really healthy discussion and questioning going on here, and it's really good to have "balance of powers"
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/04/031704.aspSo i googled a simple discussion on asset allocation. Using PE to help determine asset allocation is one method, the one used by FSM. While I do not agree that pure rear view mirror method is superior, I think there are always pros and cons. Rear view mirror method tends to change allocation frequently, depending on the performance of the month/quarter. Sometimes PE gap doesn't close quick enough and you'd be holding it for a while before you see results. Sometimes PE is very distorted for example China overall PE is low, but other than banks which are the larges ones, the PE for the other companies can be really high
keep the discussion going pls
Everyone has their own recipe. Just for sharing.
Since early of this year, I started to consider PER of different market in my annual asset allocation. Use PER to select the market, and rear view mirror method (performance + downside risk) to select funds within the same market. Anyway, i still new with it. Just for sharing.
Buy market with relative low PE (compare with Fair PE/ historical average PE aka big difference in (current PE - fair PE), not compare PE between different market/sector), is buying a market with a bigger room of increment. Buying market with relative high PE is buying a market with limited room of increase but bigger room for correction/ back to its average value.
Base on my experience, invest base on PE is much much faster than rear view window method.
For example, I entered back KGF in Jan/Feb when the PE of KLCI was 13, and exited last Monday when PE was 16.67 (plus some other reason), fair PE for msia is 16.0. But, if used rear view method, i might enter it in June, when the excellent half year data is out, and still stay with it now.
Note: China PE is low now, but most of greater china fund in FSM invest in China companies list in US (alibaba PER is 68 as i last checked) HK , Taiwan companies. Therefore, you may refer to CIMB GC's master fund Schroder ISF GC for its latest PER of holding. As i last checked, it is 21.04, still not at dangerous level i think.