I made a significant move this weekend.

I sold all my RHB EMB [ all MYR 50K worth ] with a loss of around 4% within a six months holding period.

I switched approx RM 35K to Lee Sook Yee fund

and

approx RM 15K to Eastspring Dinasti [ Pure China fund ].

I am bullish on equity in 2018 especially Malaysian and China. M'sia has been oversold in 2H2017 and China / Hang Seng PER stands at single digit.

I'm underweight with regards to fixed income [ bullish sentiments, hence reduce fixed income portion ]

Maintain neutral call on US [ high PER ]

Above neutral for REITs [ I am experimenting using this asset class as " semi fixed income" role ]

My target for this year has now become 70% EQ : 30% FI.

Huat ! Huat ! Huat !

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 20 2018, 11:49 AM

Ya... 15% is my allocation for KGF.

OK, thanks for sharing. KGF and KGIF top five holding almost the same. One has a smaller fund size. Will monitor it and put it on my radar.

I look at their risk to reward ratio. Dinasti > CIMB China.

Actually, I have just reviewed the fund mandate.

KMIF mandate is to invest in Malaysia stock with global presence. This mandate, in my opinion, is restrictive. I mean, this essentially is self imposed restriction to the large cap. Whereas KGF mandate is all Malaysia stock meaning they can invest in large, mid and small cap. KMIF's mandate means only large cap.

I'll take a rain check on that.

The below piece of op-ed is a follow up on my writing above. The writing is not targeted at noobs, it is for those who have been follwowing Algozen™ ver four or for those with a a few years of experience with UTF investing.

Over the weekend, with some free time on my side, I went back to revisit Algozen™ ver four recently. I inputed fresh data into the algorithm and this is what I get.

The feeling is the risk to reward has dropped. Generally the writing is that you need to take greater risk to maintain the same reward going forward versus previously. My gut feel is that the Quant Easing that took place a few years ago is starting to wean off. Now the new normal is you need to assume greater risk than before.

In other words, your port need to work harder to cari makan. Work harder in this sense means your port need to take on more risk to find the same amount of return. Life sucks right? But hey, if given lemons, just make lemonade lah!

The main engine of growth is in the China region. Algozen™ ver four keeps recommending to put a high percentage in the China region.

Algozen™ ver four has assigned an underweight call for Bond or Fixed Income asset class going forward. The new asset class that will fill in this role of fixed income but with decent ROI is REITs.

In summary:

1) Overweight Equities especially the China Region [My personal preference is Eastspring Dinasti ]

2) Underweight or ignore Tradtional Fixed Income

3) Use REITS or Conservative Balance fund [ My personal preference Manureits or RHB AIF ] as an alternative to Fixed Income in your portfolio.

4) expect more swing in your port going forward.

Xuzen.

Take two bond fund for comparison:

1) RHB EMB [ free market non-hedging ]

versus

2) AHSBF aka Esther's bond [ MYR hedged ]

You see how much more Bond Fund No 1 swing [ aka volatile ] as compared to Bond Fund No 2 right? Hedged versus Unhedged strategy.

Hedged Pro: less volatile
Hedged Con: less return

versus

Non-hedged pro: much more volatile
Non-hedged con: return is double edged sword, when MYR weaken, the fund goes yippe-kay-yay Mof**k*r! When MYR strengthen, S*it happens!

Xuzen

You all batangs really go there listen to talk or just go see Hui Ching and Jennifer only izzit?

8. jennifer
9. Hui Ching
10...

Another month has passed and it is time for Algoport™ ver four update:

Jan 2018 is a suckish month for my port. I made a loss of 0.4% M-o-M. The loss is mainly from IDS [ -5.22 % ] and RHB - EMB [ -3.64% ]. Both I have sold mid Jan 18 with a cut - loss intention. Moved them to Dinasti and KGF.

IDS was an experimental exposure for me, I placed only a small amount, about RM 15K only for test water.

As for RHB - EMB, I entered in July 2017 because it offered a good risk to reward ratio [ 1.5 ] at that time and a low corr-coeff. It was also a bet on the strong USD / MYR movement. Now, two of the three criterias are no longer there, it does not look attractive to me anymore and have no place in my port. Forex is a double edged sword. It cuts both ways... I shall remember that.

For those who play forex, remember, you are a trader not an investor. In my book, a trader role is buy-sell an asset, whereas an investors are passive, they are not concern with the daily up and down. Neither are wrong and both group of people can make money. You just need to be aware which group you belong too because the strategies employed will be different.

On Esther bond, she is behaving badly recently... like Aoi Sora on a bad flu day. I have identified a replacement for her. I have also identified the exit point, if and when she [ Esther Bond ] hits a certain threshold, she will be replaced.

On the winner side, I have TA Tech, KGF and Dinasti to mitigate my loss.

Some technical indicators:

12 mths rolling ROI is 6.XX %

12 months rolling Std-dev is 8.XX%

12 months rolling risk to reward ratio < 1. Not so good... will try to be better.

Skewness is slight positive, which means the port has a slight tendency to have an outcome that is +ve to the mean.

Kurtosis is negative. Negative kurtosis means that the data points have greater tendency to congregate at the mean outcome than a positive kurtosis. In lay man's term, positive kurtosis aka excess kurtosis means the sample set has a greater tendency for extreme outlier outcome. If you want your port to be stable and predictable, you shall prefer a negative kurtosis. If you are, say a swing trader who prefers to bet on buy - sell, then a positive kurtosis is better for you.

Xuzen

p/s Nothing much to be excited about my port, now looking forward to another ang-pow / bonus. That is to say, KWSP's distribution announcement. Two more weeks of waiting.

Please take note that SSPN has already announced their 4% dividend for 2017, and the dividend is already in the system.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 2 2018, 02:57 PM

Will have a material announcement after I made my move... if any.

For anal engineering people like wongmunkeong, see this:


for those lazy people like xuzen, see below:


Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 2 2018, 02:35 PM

sorry ar ! Forget about this: Risk to reward = ROI / [ Std - dev ]

Manyak senang.

Actually more accurately should be stated reward to risk, but don't know why sudah biasa cakap risk to reward pulak. All those people in finance industry says risk to reward all the time.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 2 2018, 02:45 PM

My transaction for Feb 2018:

1) Add RM 500.00 to Dinasti

2) Add RM 500.00 to KGF

3) Sold all Esther Bond and go back to Asnita for safety.

4) Maintain TA Tech and Manureit.

This month add little bit only, festival season.... need to spend some money.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 3 2018, 04:13 PM

This is deja-vu,

It is like Jan of 2016 again....

remember the China circuit-breaker fiasco? It took 1/2 year for the mkt to rebound which I recalled it was somewhere in May 16 that the market start to rebound and boy, did the market rebound with a vengeance thereafter. 2016 - 2017 ( two years, many of us were laughing all the way to the bank ). Those who have been there done that knows....

Xuzen

The best thing to do in times like this is to switch off from your investment and go something else for a week or two. Go enjoy your mandarin oranges, bak-kwa, lou-sang etc...

Kung Hei Fatt Choy.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 7 2018, 10:46 AM

If you are long term, don't worry. Here are some actual numbers from my PRS investment to allay your fear.

I started with Affin-Hwang Moderate since its inception i.e., 2012.

The below are the average NAV for that particular year [ I invested into my PRS via Dollar Coast Averaging aka Monthly auto-debit ] This means I have never time the market.

I) 2012: 0.5048
II) 2013: 0.4768 = -5.55%
III) 2014: 0.4932 = + 3.44%
IV) 2015: 0.5333 = +8.13%
V) 2016: 0.5831 = +9.33%
VI) 2017: 0.6570 = +12.67%
( in total six historical years of data for your consideration )

So you see, over the long term you gain and all these short term volatility are just noises. Best to ignore them.

Xuzen

BTW peeps don't be too sad...

You'll be receiving a huge ang-pow from Jib Gor this coming Sunday.

Jib Gor = Choy Sun Yeh = God of prosperity.

Stay tuned.

To the noobs,

How is the volatility getting on to you?

We have not have so much fun since Jan 2016.

But in this post, let me talk about volatility itself?

What causes it?

The truth is volatility is caused by the action of trading itself: millions and millions of people buying and selling stocks everyday across the globe. [ I read this somewhere a long time ago in one of my finance text book ].

If there is no volatility, it means that there is no trading activity and if there is no trading activity, that means there is no opportunity for profit.

Think of countries like Mozambique, Paraguay, Uruguay, Cuba etc... they may have stock exchange but there is hardly any trading and that means that there is hardly any volatility..... Yes!, it is a flat line. Does such a stock exchange interest you?

Therefore, you see, volatility is part and parcel of investing: Embrace it, understand it... and then profit from it.

Xuzen

" May the odds be ever in your favour "



This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 8 2018, 03:11 PM

VIX is a measure of volatility meaning how " swinginess " is the S&P 500. It means the higher the VIX the more " swinginess " the S&P 500 index around its mean.

When it is time like this, there are three things an investor can do:

1) Sit out, stay out come back when the dust is settled.

2) Don't give a Fcuk! Just DCA all the way.

3) Buy low sell high b'coz ya feelin' lucky!


Which type of investor are you?

This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 9 2018, 11:36 AM

Wow!

All equities are red!

Antara KL ke Jakarta,

Cina sampai Amerika,

Semuanya merah - merah belaka.


Kalau telur titanium, apa yang dituggu tunggu lagi,

Kalau telur biasa, DCA je lah, jangan tertinggal peluang nanti,

Kalau telur sudah hangus, minta maaf, tunggu saje lah lain hari.

Xuzen

p/s :

malam minggu ditunggu-tungguh,

Jib Gor bakal beri senyuman,

Dana dijanga melebih angka tujuh,

FSM rugi takpe, dana beri keutungan.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 10 2018, 03:29 PM

OMG! Mana boleh? Y US dun wan drop 20%?

Liek diz, our kiam-siap friend sure cannot deploy his cash loh!

how lah dey?

Have to wait, and wait, and wait ....

In 2016 said will sit and wait

In 2017 also said will sit and wait'

sudah 2018 liao, still sit & wait ?

Yes yes yes!

Pawn everything at Ar-Ranur including your Calvin Klein underwear and 911 gold denture and sai-lang all into it NOW!

This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 11 2018, 03:02 PM