I suggest you switched off your FSM apps or delete it for a month or two. Go enjoy your year end holiday, go do something else....

Come back after CNY, you'll feel much better.

Xuzen

This is a sensible thing to say... I too have heard about this. Forget the source where I got this from.

Xuzen

It is not common or has very low probability that all the market is down in tandem. Usually some are up, some are down.

Hence this present a buying opportunity.

If you have balls of titanium, then sai - lang lump sum.

If you have normal balls, then DCA bit by bit

If you have no more balls bullets / moolah / cash in hand , then just delete your FSM apps, and go away for a month or two. Don't stress yourself out.

Xuzen

Not sure how many can see, but to me, UTF is a very controllable investment tool. It is up to one to tailor it to one's liking and not many investment tool can replicate this effect.

Xuzen

Seasons greetings fellow UTF particpants,

It was a good year wasn't it? I think most of you who were with me for a longer time , would have made some gain this year. From Jan 17 to Nov 17 we were all laughing to the bank. If not double digit, at least a high single digit gain.

Having said that, it is the time again for us fortunate ones to take note of our blessings and to give back to society. Yes, be charitable... give some back to the less fortunate. I'll start with myself:

This year I have donated to the Penang Flood Relief & Sri Lanka floor relief via Tzu Chi Foundation and Persatuan Bulan Sabit Merah.

I hope you all will find a suitable cause to support. And btw, under Income Tax Act 1967 Section 44 (6), any donation to approave charitable bodies is eligible for tax relief up to a maximum of 7% aggregate income. So, go ahead, donate and save on tax. Do good, and be rewarded here and now... no need to wait until the afterlife.

Xuzen

Based strictly on my gut-feel, I think the market sentiment has picked up...

The trough was somewhere early of Dec17.

What a short lived scare.

Those who had the balls of steel, you have a good chance during the first two weeks of Dec. If

Those who had the regular balls and is doing DCA, well, not too bad... not bad at all...

Those who waited and waited and waited.... well, keep waiting. Your chance will come again... I am sure... two years later. So keep on waiting....

Xuzen

Wahlau! You simply simply tembak also can do better than FSM super - duper smart professional / algorithm! Darn good wei!

And this type of price manipulation is why those noobs who look purely at historical price to make purchase decision will be in trouble.

UTMC will on their own accord, arbitarily decide to "manipulate" the price for markerting and promotional purpose.

And silly noobs will bodoh - bodoh buy thinking it is cheap....

Xuzen

Yes for me.

If you want to hear a more detail explanation, check my post in Early Jan 2018 [ yet to be posted ]. I'll share some quick takes on my Algozen™ ver four later. Stay tuned.

Xuzen

Hey buddy!

Laziness was also what brought me from Stock Market to UTF! Gimme a hi-5!

Xuzen

Rebalance on Algozen™ ver 4.0? Not likely, I purposely set my rebalance date after CNY2018. I only did a rebalance in Qtr-3:Yr-2017 which is less than half a year ago. I plan to do rebalance twice a year.

Ver 5? Not likely... if the wheel ain't broken, don't fix it.

What I will do is I will have a yamcha / tok-kok / blow water session with my Lic Financial Planner cum sei-tong / hommies / buddy this coming new year eve. There I will ask him what is his house view on 2018. Then I will update all those who are interested.

So stay tuned.

Xuzen

I now have a historical data from period 1st Jan 2017 to 1st Jan 2018 ( exactly one year data ).

My port did a 7.XX% ROI, close to 8% p.a. In my twelve months of tracking, only one month registered a loss, that is in Nov 2017.

Std-Dev is also around 7.XX% making my risk to reward ratio around 0.9

Skewness is mildly positive around 0.19 meaning the port has a slight tendency to gravitate towards positive return.

Relative Kurtosis is negative meaning the data points tend to gravitate towards the mean and not diversely spread out.

=====================

Action plan for Jan 2018:

Top up:

1) RM 500.00 into Manureits: This is my defender. A cross between a pure bond and balanced fund. She will provide me stable return and also good diversification.

2) RM 1,000.00 into KGF. I am bullish / above neutral on Malaysia exposure because: PRU-14 effect, expected good corporate earning in Q4Yr2017, KLCI is now the cheapest PER amongs ASEAN peer, oversold, Foreign fund inflow expected.

3) RM 500.00 into Eastspring Dinasti. Hang Seng index PER is still in the single digit region. Cheap... bargain sale!

4) I'll give a neutral call on the US now. I'll stop buying TA Tech because US has very high PER , but I won't sell yet because their economic numbers remain robust. Unemployment rate is low meaning the people there have jobs and when they have jobs, they have money to spend. Which will raise domestic consumption. Tax reform, meaning less tax = higher earning for the US Company. US PMI index is above 50, meaning the production is expanding which means manufacturer are producing more goods.

Kitty & Ancient-XinG, the above are what my Lic FP shared with me during my tok-kok / yamcha / blow water session during New year eve.

Xuzen

P/S Let us Huat together - gether in 2018!

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 2 2018, 11:59 AM

Friend T321H,

Go tell you boss / team members / colleagues to perform better with regards to the FSM managed portfolio in 2018. So many amateurs here in LYN are trouncing ya'll.

Xuzen

Back to the sweet embrace of Auntie Lee Sook Yee since two months ago....

Tried to be a little adventurous , cari some extra makan with IDS. Didn't turn out to be a long term affair, mainly a short fling event only.

Xuzen

All this FX is highly unpredictable and is not correlated with fundamentals. It is purely driven by human emotion and emotion, is so fleeting and unpredictable.

Trying to predict FX is like trying to forecast the weather. More disappointment than success in my book.

Try to think objectively, most of us working class Malaysians would have a large chunk of our wealth sitting in MYR denominated KWSP. So what is a little exposure to Non-MYR assets? Isn't this what diversification is all about?

Many have forgotten diversification is not about winning big, it is about losing little. Don't forget that... the main reason for diversification.

Xuzen

Friend,

Malaysian exposure versus foreign exposure... isn't that in itself diversification already?

As for me, I let KWSP manage my Malaysian exposure. I too seek foreign exposure with my non - KWSP asset.

Xuzen

Trying to speculate on bond fund is like trying to date a granny and expect great hot S3X!

You want to win big, you have to go equity.

My main port is anchored by Esther bond, and I had some RHB EMB exposure [ 15% ] because of its low corr-coeff number.

Currently RHB EMB is down, but if you take note, the equities are going up. That is the beauty of diversification. Some fund go down, some goes up, but as a portfolio, you still see positive.

Don't be can't see the forest for its trees.

Xuzen

That is because you can only withdraw up to 20% of KWSP to go KWSP - MIS. No matter how good Lee Sook Yee is, she can only help you 20% max at a time. Might as well take that 20% and go foreign place to cari makan.

Xuzen

The above is the letter I got from Eastspring regarding the Dinasti fund unit split. I have highlighted two important points in the letter.

The first point is that the whole exercise is merely an exercise to make it more affordable for the investors as stated in the letter.

The second point is interesting in the sense, and I quote: " The value of your investment in Malaysian Ringgit will remain unchanged after the unit split "

If you read the two points together, you should realized that point one is bullocks - baloney when the second point states that your value remained unchanged.

Hence my interpretation is that the unit split is an exercise purely for marketing and advertisement to create a false impression / perception that the fund is getting cheaper.

Which is a fallacy, because, why would an investor hold on to an asset that is getting cheaper? An investor should be happy that an asset gets appreciating over time.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 6 2018, 11:24 AM

UTF investing is not skim cepat kaya, she needs to utilise the magic of compounding to work her magic.

A very conservative compounding of 6% [ which is very easily achievable with UTF investing ] can very much beat the current inflation. If you are abit gung ho, you may engineer your portfolio to go for 9% or 12% if you are a young person with very long investing horizon. UTF works well around this ROI range given time.

What UTF investing is not is when participant treat it as a trading platform to go in and out like stock market. This, UTF investing is a very poor choice for such a purpose.

Xuzen