My selection.

No 10 is TA Europe.

I am still running multiple scenarios using Algozen™ version four. No final portfolio yet.



This post has been edited by xuzen: May 30 2017, 12:48 PM

Denotes efficient frontier line.

Speaking of Dreamer101, that old fart must have died! Haven't heard from him in ages.

Ramjade sounds just like him..... perhaps we should call Ramjade as Dreamer101 Jr!

Algozen™ version four speaketh; listen well...(The values are now in MYR correlation).

I tried putting in various UTF(s) into Algozen™ and letting her run the numbers. Maximum per simulation run is ten UTFs. Anything more, is limited by the correlation coefficient parameters.

The criteria for selecting UTFs for simulations are:

1) Good risk to reward ratio among peers.
2) They must have poor correlation among each other (meaning must be well diversified)



Next step, after running twelve simulated portfolios, ranging from port that generate 8% to 20% p.a. , out of 12 ports,



To be continued...

The ports that I have run simulation gave the highest possible return to be 21% (100% TA-GTF) and the lowest possible return is 7% (100% Esther Bond). Hence the whole spectrum of return is from 7 to 21%. As expected the higher the return the higher the risk aka std - deviation. After running 12 times with various composition of portfolios, I find that the most risk optimal point is around the 10, 11, 12 and 13% point.

Let's take 13% as the expected return. In order to get 13% the composition of UTFs are as below.

KGF @ 15%
REITs @ 10%
TA-GTF @ 25%
Esther Bond @ 30%
RHB EMB @ 20%.

Std - deviation of this portfolio is 4.41% and the risk to reward ratio is 13/4.41 = 2.95.

Xuzen



This post has been edited by xuzen: May 31 2017, 03:44 PM

You have broken one of the cardinal rule of investment: DO NOT FALL IN LOVE WITH YOUR ASSET!
India only appears in those port that have high volatility. Whereas China specific fund does no appear at all in all the twelve simulated port I did. You old man liao... can you handle hot and spicy India boh?



For India, see above reply to yklooi.

KGF has excellent low correlation coefficient to all the other nine UTF in my bucket list. That is why it is included in all twelve of the simulated port even though its risk to reward isn't fantastic, it is just that it provides excellent diversification.

Take note I purposely did not include Ponzi One and Kapchai fund because both of them are closed. I also purposely did not include Ponzi Two because somehow morningstar do not have corr-coeff value foe Ponzi Two MYR UTF. Becuase of the absence of data, Ponzi Two by default is not included into Algozen™ ver. 4 simulation.


Me not conservative.... me am moderate risk. I choose the middle path......

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: May 31 2017, 10:13 PM

Just updating my port for some shiok sendiriness.

I have been tracking my port for the past 11 months.

In this eleven months, 3 months gave negative return whereas 8 months gave positive return.

Average return is MYR 2,XXX per month.

Xuzen

It is comparable to a typical balanced fund performance.... this is where my risk appetite is. I am most comfortable around this range of risk.

Xuzen

Caveat Emptor: Algozen™ uses statistical analysis for a best guestimate / forecasting. Should black swan event happens, or something unexpected happens, all bets are off. Example of black swan events: Trump thumps Clinton, Brexit, BN loses GE-14, 1MDB tiga suku (3/4) AmDeeBee occurs...

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jun 1 2017, 02:41 PM

I'm sorry! Not in the mood for spoonfeeding now...

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jun 1 2017, 03:13 PM

Activity for June 2017:

Based on Algozen™ ver. 4 outcome, I have:

I) Exit completely my India exposure with a 30% ROI

II) Reduce my AmReits exposure

III) Move RHB AIF to RHB EMB

IV) Increase TA-GTF

V) Reenter KGF.

Xuzen

I participated in India fund since the start of 2015 and it gave me a ROI of 30% within two and a half year period; 11% if annualized.

Yes, according to Algozen™ ver. 4, the higher or more aggresive port still feature India, but those moderate to aggresive moderate port do not have India.

With regards to how much to allocate India in the aggresive port, I have to recheck my data. It is contain therein my laptop and I left it in my office. I will update you guys and gal on Monday when I am back in my office.

Xuzen

There are cases like this. I believe this is due to the inconsistent risk free rate that is used to calculate the Sharpe Ratio. That is why, for the purpose of expediency, I ignore Sharpe and just go for RRR. It is more straight - forward and uncomplicated.

Xuzen

I bet some noobs will ask "what is a wrap account" , and Avangelice will be a nice guy and tell him / her about warp account... for the 1,101,101th times.

Xuzen

AIYH,

Can you tolong me to put up my Apgozen™ ver 4 crystal - ball prediction on page one. That way, all the noobs can be directed there for answers. Thanks in advance.

Cuzen

Lee Sook Yee is attractive and stunning again!

Hi the great xuzen, KGF good to enter now? I have minimal Malaysian exposure at the moment.
Currently like this


Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jun 3 2017, 11:17 PM

Taaa Daaaa! See what I mean?

Out of the twelve port simulated using Algozen™ ver. four, only four times India appears in the port and they are mainly found on the aggressive ports. Out of the four times, the most aggressive port gives a 10% exposure to India whereas the rest only gives a 5% exposure.

Lower risk port, India is not recommended. Algozen™ version four only simulate aggressive to moderate only. I purposely left out conservative ports because to me a conservative port is a waste of time and / or there are already very good substitute ( e.g., ASX FP UTF, FD, KWSP ) for it in the market. No need to reinvent the wheel.

Xuzen

negative one is the best correlation value. If you can find one, I'll give you a fluffy teddy bear.

Xuzen

In half a year period Lee Sook Yee UTF shown us her tigressness (16%)

I have excluded KGF because previously I did not have the MYR correlation matrix. My bad. If I had it, Algozen™ version three would definitely have included KGF and not emphasized so much on Selina Fund. My bad, my bad, my bad....

However, she successfully recommended TA - GTF, India & RHB AIF right? You guys who followed her, made some moolah in TA - GTF, India & RHB - AIF right? I know I did.

That is why now this is Algozen™ version four (the 4th Gen). It is always a work in progress.... Algozen™ is not perfect, like Skynet, she is ever improving. Thank you all for walking this journey with me and have faith in Algozen™.

Algozen™ ver one (1G) is experimental... very crude. Unrefined. Amateurish. It worked but at a very base level.

Algozen™ ver two (2G) was an epic disaster. Recall China real estate cooling measure in mid 2015?

Algozen™ ver three (3G) worked fine. She took us through the roller - coster ride of Grexit, Brexit, China circuit - breaker and all the way to Trump fiasco without much bloodshed...

Now,

We have Algozen™ ver four (4G).... let's see whether she is a darling or a wretch!

Xuzen