Dasecret,
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Hmm.... what kind of monte carlo method you use to be able to come out with a decision of allocation for specific funds? I thought monte carlo helps with probability, sensitivity, scenarios etc. that's why the FSM one would just show you where the different scenarios would end up in that chart
I was just jesting with you. I am no good with actual Monte - Carlo. However, I did use various UTFs and various Correlation - Coefficient to run multiple scenarios. Thereafter I chose the most optimal risk to reward portfolio. The most tedious part for my Algozen is data entry.
RHB AIF and Ponzi 2 both have very high correlation to AMReits and ManuReits, both at above 90% correlated. When two or more UTFs are highly correlated, it would be wise to choose the one which offer the better risk to reward ratio. With regards to ManuReits and AMReits, these two are very similar in terms of risk adjusted performance, that is to say, ManuReits give better return but it comes with greater volatility as compared to AMReits. In the end, I decided to go with AMReits because it has lower volatility (more stable) and let my India and TA-GTF act as the alpha - maker (forward striker in football parlance)
However, if one wishes to substitute ManuReits with AmReits, it is perfectly OK as both Manu and AMReits have around 95% correlation. If one looking at individual UTF, then one will say ManuReits make sense as it return is better. But when one is constructing a portfolio, many other parameters comes into play.
Xuzen.
This post has been edited by xuzen: May 29 2017, 02:48 PM