Price rebound and what to buy?

Market not in panic mode yet. What's the hurry? Save up cash first. Haven't even drop below my entry price and I want to buy? Sorry, no thank you. I don't chase price. I let the price come to me.

Lagi green, I just close my PC. No need to see.
Lagi red lagi I suka.
Lagi red may present me buying opportunity if price is attractive enough. Otherwise, as mentioned, what's the hurry?



This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 18 2018, 09:54 PM

Bull run don't last forever. We are in late stage of bull run. Expensive also want to buy? Then went price sink, get heart sick.
There's always pocket of opportunities as a dividend income investor. You need to make sure your price is right. I always say if something can give you 7%p.a return a year (stock dividend), why buy when the yield only 4%p.a?

And again, what's the hurry? I am no fund manager. I don't need to answer to anyone why I am seating on cash. Rewards come to those who are patient and able to bid their time.

Last but not least, unit trust can't escape a correction as demonstrated recently. But you can. And you can take advantage of it.

Correction. I am seating on SGD which is generating me free SGD (6-8%p.a yield while I wait). So again, what's my hurry? Money still coming in even if I do nothing. So tell me again what's the hurry to be fully invested? FOMO? Sorry I got no FOMO in me when I see price goes up. As mentioned, price goes up, I seat back. Nothing to see. When price drops I take closer look to see if there's any discount.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 18 2018, 11:10 PM

That's not DCA as mentioned below. You want DCA, you buy say RM200 every month regardless of market condition.
What you can do is save up the RM200/month into MMF if market is going high, then went it drop, you plough back in. The 4 questions you need to ask yourself
1) can you tahan not to chase when price is going g up?
2) do you have guts to buy when price is dropping?
3) how low then you will press the buy button?
- everyone is different
- I based mine off my entry price in late 2016/early 2017 prior to Trump. Why Trump? Did the underlying fundamental improve just because Trump got elected? No. It went up because of Trump which is irrational.
- for me a 10% drop warrant a look. Look only. Not necessarily a buy. A buy is based in your own judgement
4) what are you going to do if it drop some more?
- for me I keep some more reserve. If it drop, I am happy to buy more. Of course the 2nd, 3rd % drop must be significant to me.
1-2% drop does not warrant a look.

You can't catch the bottom but you can buy things when things are at discount price.

Here are a few ways I look at buying. Hope it helps.

Actually no. DCA is buy fixed price every month th regardless of how high or low the market. Is to average out the price. So even if market is expensive, you are still forcing yourself to buy.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 09:39 AM

Yes. Mail them photocopied version.
All PRS required you to mail them forms. You don't want, just walk into banks present your IC and they do all the work for you and you pay them 3% service charge. Be my guest. A little inconvenient for cheaper price is definitely something I am willing to pay

Bro read what I write properly. A 10% is warrant a look now. Up to you to buy or not. For me no buy cause nothing change prior to Trump election. Bullrun after Trump was because of words, and Irrationality. Got nothing to do with fundamental changes. Trump was elected about 2 years ago. So a 10% drop to prior to Trump election memang can buy.

No money to buy =
1) I don't touch my emergency cash
2) my RM converted to SGD.

And as mentioned when pocket of opportunities arrive I buy dividend stocks. So when money used for dividend stocks, where got money left for UT unless I can print money? Remember, I am earning RM and investing in SGD. My dividends received are not big enough to pay for my other investment yet. They are big enough for one one off partial payment but not big enough for full one off payment. With 3x conversion, I need to wait every 4 months to convert to SGD4k. Yes I do divert some money to UT but not much as I prefer real cash.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 10:07 AM

Rm3k memang allocated for PRS. The question is when to buy. I am aiming for it to fall back to my original entry price or way below. A 5% drop from my entry price would be a sweet deal and I memang have no problem buying then. A drop to my entry price will warrant a look.

Good dividends counter on SGX which is off topic here.

Absolutely. Remember I said current price is close to my entry price for PRS but if can I want it to drop further. If it's at my entry price it's warrant a look.
If cannot, just buy. After all as mentioned money put into PRS is still your money end of the day.

You can't get everything you want in life. You just need to be close, hope and be prepare for it (have cash standby to buy)

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 10:16 AM

Bro I memang invest via SG. I dump FSM MY long time ago as mentioned.
Why should I pay FSM service charge when I can get same returns or higher in SG for free? Again. A 10% return in FSM MY and 10% returns from POEMS SG is different.

The only FSM MY I left is my PRS.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 10:31 AM

Warrant a look but is some shopping opportunities for some dividend stocks

Warrant a look as is getting closer to my PRS entry price. Again if the price drop by another 10%, is shopping time for PRS and dividend stocks.

And as mentioned, I don't like price increasing as it means I have no place to park my cash.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 10:34 AM

Actually is not NATO, but took some actionin dividend stocks. But price drop for UT still not attractive enough for me to buy.

I refuse to buy if price not attractive enough.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 10:45 AM

In UT price will go up long term wise if is a good fund.
But before price goes up, you want to be able to buy as much as possible when there's a discount. So yeah I prefer price to drop heavily now and irrationally for me to be able to accumulate.

Similarly as a dividend income investor, you want the price to shoot up as when price shoots up, dividend yield decrease. You are getting less dividend/unit of currency.

Don't worry. China will lose the trade war. When China loses the trade war, expect another wave of sell down. So what's the hurry? Let them draw out the fight. When they lost, all you need to do is go and pick what you want.

They my dear friend are still not tasty enough for me.

If you don't want to wait for trade war, wait for feds to keep raising rates. Will come a time when interest rate is too expensive to service and more companies will default payment and set off a chain reaction.

An iPhone X is like a bonus to me. If I win, I sell it, pocket the cash.

Take risk when you know odds are majority in your favour. Dont take risk when odds are only slightly in your favour.

Look at it this way, China have less things to tax US than the US have to tax China. US can keep taxing china while there's only limited things China can tax US. Why do you think USD is gaining ground while china yuan is dropping?

So by making things difficult for China, China economy will have to give. No demand for China stuff. China will go into recession or economy slow down. Basic economy.

Whoever loses trade war, you can go pick up what you want at cheap price. Be it US or China. I am with US on this one as odds favour US heavily.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 11:05 AM

I already said. When is cheap enough you buy. Right now still aren't cheap. You want to buy, be my guest. No one's stopping you from not buying if you think market is cheap. Don't need to listen to me when to buy. My level of tolerating down market can be higher or lower than you

I have my own level to judge when market is cheap as mentioned few post back (price before trump kena elected) is one parameter.

There is, as money won't be stuck in MMF. Money can finally be put to good use. I hate seeing money rot but I will put my money to rot if there's no good deal.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 11:12 AM

Now you are seeing my point why I can wait it out. Market good or bad, my dividends are coming in at that rate. That's why is very important for me to have a low price.
Bad market come, dividend drop to 4% + additional cash from salary means I can accumulate more.
Good market come, dividend increase + cash from salary means I can refill my chest and wait to deploy my cash.

Yes odds of losing money is there if you sell. But if S-reits are mandated to pay out 90% of their cash, come good or bad times, they still need to payout. Dividend decrease so what? You are still getting cash.
Then lets go to good dividend counters, come bad or good time, if the company have been paying ~50% cash only, you think they can't continue paying cash in bad times? Companies must be cashed rich and not gear up to too much.

Cash received from dividends can be used to buy more shares when price drop to generate more dividends or buy UT when market is attractive enough.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 11:20 AM

Told ya my game plan already when reply to someone earlier. When price drop to prior to Trump election, buy.
Price drop to PRS entry price can consider buy.
Price drop way below my PRS entry price definitely buy but max RM3k
When price drop, have a look and see if dividend stocks are on sale. My sale definition is S-reits must give > ASNB FP returns.
Dividend stocks in 4-5% region should be added especially if payout ratio is say 50-60%. The more it drop, the better.

When price drop, have a look and see if dividend stocks are on sale. My sale definition is S-reits must give > ASNB FP returns.
Dividend stocks in 4-5% region should be added especially if payout ratio is say 50-60%. The more it drop, the better.

Sometimes such drop allow one to accumulate dividend stocks sold at discount. Sometimes price not attractive enough so just look.

Why do you think China so worried about US imposing trade war on them? Why do you think china is trying to spend just to push up the economy. They realised they are too reliant on selling things to US. When they can't sell things to US, their economy definitely will stall or slow down. Why do you think china impose capital control on their own citizen? They don't want their rich citizen to bring money out of the country. Who knows the economy better than the locals?

No jump cause nothing on offer?

You won't understand as you are not a dividend investor.
Keep going up how to make money? Buy high and sell higher? Good luck with that.

Nope. There's a difference in huge and slightly.
When the odds are hugely in your favour, buy.
When odds slightly in your favour, up to you to buy. I know want higher odds in my favour before I buy.

Dividend investor = stocks. Not UT. You and I should know dividend in UT not important.

I give you an example with UT. Maybe can understand better.
In UT you want the price to goes up. But if it went up because there's plenty of FOMO, you don't buy.
Why? When price drops you need the same amount just to break even. A 10% drop means the fund needs to perform 10% just to break even. Now how easy is it to break even? In bull market is easy. In a bear market good luck. Now we don't want to just break even right? You don't want to wait so long just to break even right?

What are the odds of it dropping if the price is already expensive? High right? Yes high can go higher. But how high can high go? What are the odds of you needing to wait longer just to see some gains? If you want to wait longer time for it to break even and made gain then buy. Clearly the odds are not in your favour. Maybe slightly in this case (high can go higher)

Now instead of chasing, you decide to wait. Price drop. What are the chances price can go up if is already cheap? Yes low can go lower. But right now when things drop, chances of it going up is higher vs dropping (especially if it's cheap, if it drop but still expensive, then yes low can go lower).

I don't know how to explain it in words. When market is expensive, you only have small odds of making money. When market is cheap, odds are stack hugely in your favour.

So in the case eof UT
One is assumed guaranteed 6%p.a in ASNB.
Now if invest in UT, at expensive point, market drop by 10% the fund needs to wait ~2 years just to outperform ASNB.
Now if you invest in the 2nd year (when is cheaper) what are your odds to outperform ASNB? Higher right when compare if you buy in the first year?

Last I check mainland Chinese/Chinese companies cant buy overseas property anymore. Can only send limited amount of cash overseas/year. Cc have limits on international spending. Something USD 50k if I am not wrong.

Again why do you think they are trying to revamp their economy and speed up consumption? They want to be less dependent on trades. They need to increase the amount of consumption by x% to off set the effects of US trade war by x%.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 12:13 PM

Based on previous chart and based on market sentiments. You see market rebounded so fast, so yeah we are still in a bull market.

Again like I said if the odds are in your favour of outperforming ASNB FP funds, take it. If not, don't.

So far for me my S-reits have all outperform ASNB FP beautifully with capital gains of 20% even in this market condition. Am I selling? No. Why? When I sell, dividend stops. God knows how long I need to wait for the market to offer me the same price again.

Will I accumulate more if it drop to my entry price or below it?
Yes I will.

Some goes for my other dividend stocks.

Am I confident to outperform ASNB returns currently?
No. The odds are not really in my favour now. Hence I am waiting. Market is expensive and bull market is intact.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 12:30 PM