QUOTE(MUM @ Oct 19 2018, 12:38 PM)
based on the chart?
based on how long the data?...
is the point of reference for rebound starts at the lowest?
is the point to start calculating the bull runs start from that lowest point?
if yes, then for how long does it takes considered a bull run?
how much rises from that lowest point in % and at what durations can it be considered as a bull run?
how does one know if it is not a trap or if that bull run is a mini one or a full all out crazy bull?
how can one be sure the odds in in one favour of outperforming ASNB FP? .....unless by looking back in history some time later.
For this short term, use the price prior to trump election. Anything after trump is considered expensive and irrational. Anyhirng change after trump? I don't think so. based on how long the data?...
is the point of reference for rebound starts at the lowest?
is the point to start calculating the bull runs start from that lowest point?
if yes, then for how long does it takes considered a bull run?
how much rises from that lowest point in % and at what durations can it be considered as a bull run?
how does one know if it is not a trap or if that bull run is a mini one or a full all out crazy bull?
how can one be sure the odds in in one favour of outperforming ASNB FP? .....unless by looking back in history some time later.
For longer can look at brexit, greece issue.
Look at deepest bottom. That's your support level. Anything near that level can consider mega discount.
Super long term. Look at 2008. A repeat a 2008 will appear again. The question is when. You can't predict but you can be prepared for it.
Bullrun can be seen when markets is irrational drastic increase in price eventhough fundamentally nothing much changes.
I don't need to see how long bull run. all I need to know for myself market is still not cheap enough for me to risk my money in UT.
Yes I believed in the 10 years cycle. If we are lucky, maybe can stretch to 15 years but Bullrun is ending.
That you have to depend on yourself. If you feel the market is expensive and want to chase because of FOMO, then give chase. I wouldn't give chase.
What are the odds of losing money in an expensive market vs cheap market? The odds are higher to lose money in an expensive market. The global economy depends on US no matter what people want to think. Us market aren't cheap now. Who cares about Malaysia, Hong Kong or India market. When US down, the world follows US.
Again it comes down to market is expensive or cheap. In a cheap market chances to outperform ASNB is huge. In an expensive market, good luck man.
Of course when it comes to stocks, different question. Different stocks have different levels of cheapness. Different people different. Right now, I can give chase to S-reits but I won't as it's totally not worth my effort. The yield I am getting by buying now is totally not worth my money.
The way I see it is end of the day, unit trust still a basket of stock and can't run away from that fact. My thesis still hold true as proven recently.
Not sure if you are trying to make fun of me.
This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 01:03 PM
Oct 19 2018, 12:58 PM

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