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 FundSuperMart v18 (FSM) MY : Online UT Platform, UT DIY : Babystep to Investing :D

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Ramjade
post Oct 19 2018, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Oct 19 2018, 12:38 PM)
based on the chart?
based on how long the data?...
is the point of reference for rebound starts at the lowest?
is the point to start calculating the bull runs start from that lowest point?
if yes, then for how long does it takes considered a bull run?
how much rises from that lowest point in % and at what durations can it be considered as a bull run?
how does one know if it is not a trap or if that bull run is a mini one or a full all out crazy bull?

how can one be sure the odds in in one favour of outperforming ASNB FP? .....unless by looking back in history some time later.
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For this short term, use the price prior to trump election. Anything after trump is considered expensive and irrational. Anyhirng change after trump? I don't think so.
For longer can look at brexit, greece issue.
Look at deepest bottom. That's your support level. Anything near that level can consider mega discount.
Super long term. Look at 2008. A repeat a 2008 will appear again. The question is when. You can't predict but you can be prepared for it.
Bullrun can be seen when markets is irrational drastic increase in price eventhough fundamentally nothing much changes.
I don't need to see how long bull run. all I need to know for myself market is still not cheap enough for me to risk my money in UT.
Yes I believed in the 10 years cycle. If we are lucky, maybe can stretch to 15 years but Bullrun is ending.
That you have to depend on yourself. If you feel the market is expensive and want to chase because of FOMO, then give chase. I wouldn't give chase.

What are the odds of losing money in an expensive market vs cheap market? The odds are higher to lose money in an expensive market. The global economy depends on US no matter what people want to think. Us market aren't cheap now. Who cares about Malaysia, Hong Kong or India market. When US down, the world follows US.

Again it comes down to market is expensive or cheap. In a cheap market chances to outperform ASNB is huge. In an expensive market, good luck man.

Of course when it comes to stocks, different question. Different stocks have different levels of cheapness. Different people different. Right now, I can give chase to S-reits but I won't as it's totally not worth my effort. The yield I am getting by buying now is totally not worth my money.

The way I see it is end of the day, unit trust still a basket of stock and can't run away from that fact. My thesis still hold true as proven recently.

Not sure if you are trying to make fun of me.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 01:03 PM
Ramjade
post Oct 19 2018, 01:02 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Oct 19 2018, 12:55 PM)
wow.. kopitiam thread ka?
i thought i clicked on the wrong link.. devolved?

my bad.. just thinking logical investing thread or kopitiam thread <back into the shadows>
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No la. They poking fun at me cause I am different. Mana ada org boleh seat on cash, no FOMO, kenapa tak chase, why celebrate when market down, why not sad/panic when market down. But it's OK. Cause I am seeing that my way works for me.
Ramjade
post Oct 19 2018, 01:12 PM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Oct 19 2018, 01:02 PM)
notworthy.gif  just seeking for clarification of your thought......for most of the time your replies are so vague or full of other possibilities,...thus I need to really seek more clarification to determine where and how your replies fits into my queries.
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End of the day, have your own rules. No need to follow me. If you feel not worth investing, don't. If you feel worth investing, then invest.

My replies are based on my own rules which I follow. Rules are build up after reading numerous financial blogs and some books. Rules are simple enough for me.
1. Have a benchmark of safe money.
-for malaysians case should be EPF and ASNB.
2. What are your odds of generating > safe money?
- if odds is large, take it.
- if odds is small, don't
3. If it cannot beat safe money, and money maybe at risk, not worth putting in your money.
4. Know what you want and how much risk you can afford.
5. Know that your cash is limited and must get max % from cash as possible.
6. Welcome discount with open arms and not run from it.
7. Ignore FOMO.
8. Go back to basic.

If one wants to do DCA, then have to commit. No chickening out. That's the whole point of DCA.


This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 01:17 PM
Ramjade
post Oct 20 2018, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Oct 20 2018, 02:43 PM)
Poor poor Kambing biri-biri jed,

Kena bertubi-tubi and yet come back to answer all questions thrown at him. You've got grit, kid, I'll give you that.

Why do you find his method strange and yet he find it not strange?

In my mind, I think he is applying a strategy that is correct in income / dividend investing to Unit Trust Fund which I have explained earlier, should use a different strategy.

I shall not repeat about UTF strategy today, but instead, let me talk about income investing strategy and you'll see Ramjade's perspective clearer.

Income investing is always looking at yield. It can be dividend received from stocks ( dividend yield ), rent receivable ( property ) or coupon receivable ( bonds ). And from this, you can understand why Ramjade keep on harping on lowering price of the said equity or asset. He is, rightly or wrongly, or delusional thinking if the dividend is constant, then buying at lower price of the asset will surely give me higher yield.
For bond, where the coupon payment is fixed, a lowering of bond price will get you a better yield. But then, you hardly see bond price move. Bond price moves in range of basis points or bips. 1 bips = 0.01%. If you are a retail investor, a few bips movement will not make you excited anyway.

For equity, where the dividend declared is not fixed, a lowering of stock price may or may not give you a better yield. Let's take TNB. If it gives you a yield of 4.XX% and the price has been battered down, then it makes sense to buy more of it assuming that in future the business modal of TNB is not affected by the economic climate. That is why in Ramjade's mind, he is always thinking of getting lower and lower and lower stock price. What if, the price is battered down due to a possibility that TNB cannot sustain the same dividend payout in the future? Will you then buy even the price is trending lower? Hence, always looking for higher yield by wishing a lower price is anchored on the assumption that the dividend payout remains the same or higher.

For property / REITs included, the same concept applies.

But poor Ramjade has forgotten, UTF is not stock per se. Strategy employed is different. That is why he kena flacked all over here because he is like trying to sell Arsenal jersey to Man-U fans at Old Traford.

Xuzen
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Master xuzen, never forget unit trust underlying assets are still stocks. Stocks follow the same rules. When a sell down happen, all stocks will kena sell down regardless good or bad stocks.

If a unit trust still hold 80% stocks, think won't be affected? If 40% holdings only in stocks maybe not affected.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 20 2018, 03:35 PM
Ramjade
post Oct 20 2018, 08:22 PM

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For those who think my post is toxic, be my guest and ignore my post. I am just posting my noob basic understanding. I am no master. Underlying unit trust is still stocks and no way fund manager can hold cash until drop of portfolio is not significant. I don't need people to believe me as real numbers don't lie. China market drop, asia pacific market also drop. US market drop, tech also drop. Coincidence? whistling.gif whistling.gif

Is never about boasting. Is always about value for money. Making money work harder for you in the shorter amount of time. You know market is expensive and you still want to go in? Then really good luck la. Like you know a tsunami is coming. Still want to go to the beach? Ok, maybe tsunami is too far fetch.

You know now monsoon period, still want to leave house without an umbrella?

If someone claims that they can time the market they are wrong. No one can time the market, but you can prepare for bad market. How? Sit on cash and don't do anything. When things are expensive, don't give chase.

I am a simple person with simple brain and simple logic.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 20 2018, 08:23 PM
Ramjade
post Oct 21 2018, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Oct 21 2018, 01:07 PM)
now don't move around liao....

this period those atas people start to have pattern. Some FI fund I see the manager also already hold 100% cash. I think they might know something we don't.

Becareful.
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Even professional people are keeping cash. So why we as retail want to jump in?

They are preparing. By jumping in when others are preparing is basically giving free money.
Ramjade
post Oct 24 2018, 09:47 AM

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QUOTE(Vibe007 @ Oct 24 2018, 08:59 AM)
Looks like the market will further bottom in coming days . Ramjade prophecy is real.
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I think support for DJIA is 25000. If it can break that, except further drop.

Of course, one must be prepare to act and buy if think is cheap enough. For me I haven't utilise my PRS allowance for the year so definitely looking to scoop up if big sell down.

QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Oct 24 2018, 09:32 AM)
any news?

seems ok only..
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Ok cause DJIA, s&p500 rebounded partially.
Ramjade
post Oct 24 2018, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 24 2018, 11:23 AM)
Agreed: Missing timeframe.

Anyone can comment on the severity for a mkt like this, if this happens, if that happens, if breaks 25000... etc,... I see this everyday in my Inbox sent to me by NABTrade.

I have a term now: Index Traps. The indices go up a bit,... people start fearing they might miss the boat. Many jumped in,... then two days later they drop again,...careful bros and sis,...

We have Value Traps, Yield Traps and Growth Traps. This time round,... we have Index Traps !!! The indices are luring us into the snake holes....
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Well when you have Rm3k waiting to deploy and you can only wait until end of the year, your time is running out. sad.gif

Well how many people bother about snake holes or what ever trap when they decide to chase higher.
Ramjade
post Oct 25 2018, 08:26 AM

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QUOTE(ROSS_Solar @ Oct 25 2018, 08:22 AM)
You probably mean kiss goodbye 2017-2018 gain... smile.gif
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2018 gain. Not yet 2017.Wish me luck that market decide to wipe off 2017 gain as well. That will be interesting.
Ramjade
post Oct 25 2018, 08:36 AM

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QUOTE(ROSS_Solar @ Oct 25 2018, 08:30 AM)
depends on port allocation. I'm half-way into 2017 already.
As for wishing good luck, personally, i don't care much, but majority of people here won't share your wishes  biggrin.gif
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I know. Don't need people to share my wishes. I act independently.
Ramjade
post Oct 30 2018, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Oct 30 2018, 11:12 AM)
i'd do this too IF..
a. market crashed (past tense) >20%, preferably >=30%
b. i've at least 3 months' expenses stashed away in somewhere

IMHO:
i'm still waiting for the "crashed" (past tense) to start deploying using "leveraged $". Other than Shanghai Index + maybe South Korea's KOSPI, not much lelong this month's "crash", especially MY's stocks - relatively speaking.
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Get ready to be shot. People here don't like you talking about crash. whistling.gif whistling.gif
Ramjade
post Dec 30 2018, 09:59 PM

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QUOTE(kart @ Dec 29 2018, 07:59 PM)
Just to summarize, is the following method a better way to perform dollar cost averaging (DCA), in general for any unit trusts?

1) Downtrend in NAV is anticipated over the next few months.
- Completely stop DCA. Deploy the fund (meant for DCA) for e-fixed deposit, or in money market.
2) Downtrend severity in NAV starts to reduce (NAV price curve starts to reduce and gradually flattens), with the possibility of NAV rebound within the next month (economy may start to be better)
- Perform DCA with partial fund.
3) NAV starts to rebound, with uptrend in NAV expected within the next few months.
- Perform DCA, with full intended fund every month.
Is my understanding correct, about the proper way to perform DCA? Appreciate a few tips, from FundSuperMart expert inventors here.  notworthy.gif  thumbup.gif
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DCA is simple. Put in fixed amount of money every month regardless market is cheap or expensive.

QUOTE(skynode @ Dec 29 2018, 10:46 PM)
If based on lessons from the past, it's not timing but ultimately the time in the market that matters.
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Actually both helps.
Time in the market and timing the market can do wonders.
Ramjade
post Dec 30 2018, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Dec 30 2018, 10:09 PM)
wow looks who's back

so, what's your take on 2019? is the bear really come for real? Dow touched 22k. but bounced.  even from 26k point....
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Bears aren't coming yet.
Ramjade
post Jan 7 2019, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jan 7 2019, 09:53 AM)
all market shoot up. at least 1%.

market start recover? or just brewing a perfect storm?
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Always have ammo for market downwards. Market up either take profit or start collecting ammo
Ramjade
post Jan 7 2019, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(voyage23 @ Jan 7 2019, 10:14 AM)
Damn just when I was about to top up PRS for 2019!
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The year is still young.
Ramjade
post Jan 7 2019, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(voyage23 @ Jan 7 2019, 11:16 AM)
Low enough for me to take advantage. You are either in one of these 2 camps:

1) 2019 will only get better
2) More downturn to come in 2019

Then you act accordingly. After all, PRS money can only be taken out at 55 years old, all these won't really matter 25 years down the road (my time horizon).
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I took advantage too. More down time is good news for me. For now, just sit tightly.

QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jan 7 2019, 11:22 AM)
i think most of the fund are around-20% from peak 2017.

Can start dca minimum amount weekly to start off.

But as other said. the big date is still this march.
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Don't worry. More is too come when ceasefire period expire. US tax on China have been effective until China economy slowed down.
Ramjade
post Jan 18 2019, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(kenny79 @ Jan 18 2019, 02:41 PM)
Then u safe from Oct to December dip....
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I took opportunity of Dec dip. Awaiting another such dip. brows.gif
Ramjade
post Jan 18 2019, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jan 18 2019, 04:29 PM)
Nice! Which funds did you top up
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Asia and tech of course.
Ramjade
post Jan 22 2019, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Jan 22 2019, 09:27 AM)
Trade war ending SOON?
US won?

jump into the EQ mkts now?

There has been an unexpected development in the US-China trade war. Chinese trade officials apparently offered a huge concession earlier this month: a promise to completely eliminate its trade surplus...

Please credit and share this article with others using this link:
https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion...erring#cxrecs_s
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Yup. US won as China wave the white flag.
Ramjade
post Jan 24 2019, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jan 24 2019, 09:51 PM)
actually if you browse thru the research article of 2017 and 2018. some of the article describe 2018 as a booming year..... and that's really a joke.
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Everyone was very optimist in beginning of 2018.

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