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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V20

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scorptim
post Feb 23 2018, 12:30 PM

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QUOTE(khusyairi @ Feb 20 2018, 05:02 PM)
Dont forget about KK.

Govt housing allowance highest there. Mean it is expensive.
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KK house prices is just ridiculous. The market easily manipulated by developers there because not much competition.
scorptim
post Feb 28 2018, 10:07 PM

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QUOTE(WhitE LighteR @ Feb 28 2018, 12:23 PM)
450k double storey? 700k semi d? Mana? Share2 with us...
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Actually if you don’t mind old housing areas, quite a few places not far from kl can get those prices. Just minus off those hipster and Chinese majority areas can d. Some parts of puchong, cheras even PJ can get, Example pj taman medan and surrounding areas, cheras prima.
scorptim
post Apr 6 2018, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 28 2018, 10:33 AM)
THE property market may recover in 2020 or 2021 when a fresh cycle starts again with a new wave of demand, according to RHB Research Institute property analyst Loong Kok Wen.

https://www.nst.com.my/property/2018/03/347...ay-recover-2020

Given bank interest rate rising trend, liquidity tightening, number of new supply and foreclosure is lagging behind, property price is likely near bottom in 2021 rather than recovery.
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Been saying this since 2016. Lol
scorptim
post Apr 6 2018, 01:27 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 6 2018, 11:10 AM)
No vendor is willing to advertise asking price or foregoes lower than perceived market price. property price dropped from foreclosure or under duress.
Property is illiquid, price takes years to bottom.
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I mean I’ve been saying since 2016 in this thread that prop prices will go down and only recover after 2020. I’m not saying bubble won’t burst.

Btw, you’ve been repeating the same script “Property is illiquid, price takes years to bottom” for how many years already. Change it a bit la at least
scorptim
post Apr 6 2018, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(smon80 @ Apr 6 2018, 01:35 PM)
it wise to let go now? or it will getting worst in coming time. my unit in setia alam now on rental but afraid after move out may diff to find tenant. now sa house like over supply including bkt raja. some more mine is old phase house, 10 years.
last 3 years valuation 500k. now got value but no buyer. buyer now has many choice to choose due to the oversupply.
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Are you having trouble to service the loan? If not why sell during downtrend? Just hold la. Sell after 2020. Landed prop even old already it’s very easy for you to maintain and/or refurbish, if old apartment or condo then different story.

QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Apr 6 2018, 02:25 PM)
is it landed or apartment ?
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House so should be landed

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 6 2018, 02:27 PM)
Facts is not fake news, what is there to change?
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Memang not fake and I agree with the statement, just that seen it for so many years you repeat exact same thing. Change the words a bit to make it sound fresh/new. Haha
scorptim
post Apr 6 2018, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(smon80 @ Apr 6 2018, 03:44 PM)
is landed anyway. i need to top up about 300 to maintain the loan. my unit had refinanced b4 and my refinance amount is lower than market price. if i sell at market price still earn.
setia alam apartment unit in setia taipan had been alot. But environment wise sa is nice to stay esp those buolt by sp.
my intention is to purchase shop lot in future.
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The thing is, can you sell at market price right now? If can and no loss go ahead. If you need to sell at a loss then better hold unless you overstretched.
scorptim
post Jun 9 2018, 12:32 AM

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QUOTE(RicoT @ Jun 9 2018, 12:29 AM)
My friend own a unit there, corridors flood during heavy rain, and flood water comes into the unit. I remember someone viral Icon City corridor flood in FB before.
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Yeah, a lot of these cheaply built but promoted and sold as mid end to luxury condos will be the first to drop nao. Popcorn ready to see overstretched buyer 14th floor
scorptim
post Jun 9 2018, 12:38 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 5 2018, 04:14 PM)
According to statistics from the Employee Provident Fund (EPF) shows that 92 percent of the people who contributed regularly to their EPF retirement fund are earning less than US$1,500 or RM6,000 a month.

Those bought over priced property to flip are in for a long haul.
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So, now with so many deals around did you scoop up any units? Sometimes I wonder why you keep monitoring the price since you dun buy also. I know some of us who been saying DDD for years is actually waiting to scoop up cheap prop when it happens. But what’s your game plan?

QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Jun 5 2018, 04:51 PM)
Cyberjaya auction prop drop more than 30% already. bank go chase anot ?

btw auction props r not included in Malaysia house price index. thats y didnt see it coming

like previous finance ministry, hiding debt and manipulate economic data
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Cyber can buy now if you got holding power. Too much oversupply of condos there already. Wondering if the studio at mutiara will keep dropping til below 150k. If it does can sapu that one 😛
scorptim
post Jun 9 2018, 12:52 AM

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QUOTE(fuzzy @ Jun 9 2018, 12:40 AM)
I was checking that place out until a friend that was working in Mah Sing asked me to give it a pass...

I think it was competing with Park51 at the time. By the time Sunway Serene gets built, I honestly struggle to think how they would survive.

Just down the road at Sunway also another condo coming up.
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Mah sing’s higher end developments usually not up to par, I think they are better on building mid and lower cost props. Their “luxury” condos memang not as nice or as good as other developers.
scorptim
post Jun 22 2018, 08:48 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 22 2018, 04:24 PM)
Those born in 1980's and 90's have not experienced economic recession as a adult, only know low interest rate and easy credit, bought under peers pressure; not at all surprised, many of foreclosure belongs to this group.
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Also because they got conned back in 2013-2015 during the peak of the bull run by those property gurus seminars asking them to BBB UUU on luxury condos. I know many friends who even join names to get those luxury condos hoping to profit by the time the development is completed due to being influenced by those gurus and end up now all also dying to pay the installments since can’t sell at the price they want and can’t get high enough rental rates.

QUOTE(wild_card_my @ Jun 22 2018, 07:51 PM)
So in conclusion, can we safely say that there was a bubble and some of them are bursting now?
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Depends on your definition of burst, for some ppl, prices don’t drop to below pre 2009 prices then not considered as burst.


QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 22 2018, 08:18 PM)
In 2007 u.s subprime crisis, home price took 6 years to bottom. Believe this is only the beginning of kv property price decline.
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Doubt will be that long, still sticking to my prediction that downtrend until 2020-2021 then slow reversal
scorptim
post Jun 22 2018, 10:09 PM

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QUOTE(zephyrus9999 @ Jun 22 2018, 09:05 PM)
My peer: claimed his prop bought 2 yrs ago raised by 100k. Say from mouth sounds nice 100k. Then I slowly deduct all his ASSOCIATED costs from both buying and selling and maintaining plus contra 4% fd rate. End up become 30-40k profit subjected to if his transacted match the asking. Every month as we speak, bank takes a chunk on interest payment from reducing balance type of loan eating the profit away.

His case considered lucky have some profit as location good. I believe majority are burning through their pocket to the banks. If ppl are not ignorant and calculate properly, they make realised loss
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Did he already sell his prop or his so called 100k gains is just Imaginary based on “market price” quoted by agent?

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 22 2018, 09:35 PM)
Until oversupply is consumed, price is unlikely to rise.

It is unrealistic to expect price to drop below 2009 because of inflation. As most bought property with bank loan, price stagnant for a few years, loan interest incurred could deemed burst for that buyer/investor.
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If prices drops low enough sure won’t take long to consume the existing supply.

Yes it’s unrealistic to expect drop to pre 2009 but quite a few people are expecting that still, being unrealistic. Haha
scorptim
post Jun 26 2018, 05:54 PM

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800k++ condo going for below 600k. Who got the cash can go sapu


Villa Pantai Condominium
Property Address: Kondo Villa Pantai, No. 1, Jalan Pantai Murni 8, Pantai Dalam, 59200, Kuala Lumpur
Built Up: 1646 Sq Ft (Approx. RM 344.47 psf)
Auction Price: RM 567,000.00
Auction Date: 14-Jul-2018 (Saturday)
Tenure: Freehold
Restriction: Bumi Lot

In case you guys dunno where this is...if not mistaken now they rename it to saville condo
scorptim
post Jun 26 2018, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Jun 26 2018, 06:39 PM)
Got a unit sold in lelong for 554k after the reserve price hit below 500k. 1200sqft only: https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...post&p=87453949

But unfortunately the stated reserve price wrongly. Is 630k. So need to wait at least 1 more round since is also bumi lot.
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This one 1600+ sq feet reserve 630k only? I thought the prop was around 900k for that size. I put 800k as price coz it’s bumi lot. Haha
scorptim
post Jun 26 2018, 07:27 PM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Jun 26 2018, 07:24 PM)
Yeah current reserve price at 630k. Not 567k as stated above.
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Eh, really ? I saw 567k on prop guru leh posted today. Agent salah post?
scorptim
post Jun 26 2018, 11:02 PM

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QUOTE(jutamind @ Jun 26 2018, 10:51 PM)
From 1.35m to min 799k freehold corner lot and still no buyer? What's wrong with this unit?
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QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Jun 26 2018, 10:59 PM)
because auction unit is risky. under 500k can buy  cool2.gif
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Auction unit wo, unless you got 799k cash you surely don’t wanna risk losing your DP if you cannot get loan disbursed in 3 months. Props above 500k loan disbursement will take longer than below 500k usually. Very risky.
scorptim
post Jul 23 2018, 05:54 PM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Jul 23 2018, 04:01 PM)
No taker this unit. Now at even cheaper price.

No taker. Cheaper price than ever now.
For bumi buyer only.

B-05-02, Kondo Villa Pantai @ Saville , No. 1, Jalan Pantai Murni 8
Reserve price: 🔥🔥RM 510,300🔥🔥
Freehold
1646 sqft
Auction :  07-Aug-2018
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If only this was 2 months earlier...damn la. Already bought another unit in nearby area and out of funds now 😭

QUOTE(wild_card_my @ Jul 23 2018, 05:41 PM)
honestly though, is the bottom-low prices of these units through lelong transactions affect the current subsale prices? Like if you look at brickz you would see the lelong transactions.. .would it be wise to buy this units in the hope that they would bounce? If too many lelong units for a given area, doesn't that mean that the bubble has burst?
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Depends on how many units on lelong for that particular development. Most of the time it won’t impact much because you don’t get that many lelong units for the same development. I love buying these type of units coz the market price usually still maintains.

Of course there are exceptions when a development got too many lelong units like M city *cough**cough* too many lelong units confirm market price will come down.
scorptim
post Jul 29 2018, 06:54 PM

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QUOTE(overthemoon @ Jul 29 2018, 06:46 PM)
Where got so long ???

Been told 2 months in default, they will rampas.
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You been lied to, where got so fast. Minimum also 3 months, that also not immediately after 3 months they auction your house, just blacklist you and keep chasing you to pay then issue auction notice etc.

There’s also no such thing as “rampas” your house. You think like tow truck can kena tow ah? They will just issue notice of auction and ask you to vacate the property but if no on e buys from auction, you can still stay there, bank won’t chase you out also.
scorptim
post Aug 8 2018, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Aug 8 2018, 09:27 AM)
Sold at 585k. 8 bidders.
If you scroll above, can actually win without fight at 567k back in Jul last month. Haha.


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This is quite common, when price drop a lot, many bidders end up being sold higher than previous reserve price. People tend to get over excited and competitive when there are many bidders.
scorptim
post Aug 28 2018, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(Afro100 @ Aug 28 2018, 04:11 PM)
10-20% is good enough, any higher than that is pushing it.
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For condos got a few 30% discounts flying around d right now.

Landed I think your estimate is sound but high rise, I predict by the time we reach the bottom of this downtrend we’ll see around 30-50% drop.
scorptim
post Aug 28 2018, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ Aug 28 2018, 04:30 PM)
pfffffft, my low cost unit ppl rushing to buy, no less than 10 agents call me for the unit even after sold.

low cost so laku meh?
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Low cost is selling like hot cakes now and prices hardly drop from 2 years ago. Those below 200k props price remains stagnant and didn’t drop.

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