QUOTE(GenY @ Jul 10 2017, 06:58 PM)
Talking about trends etc while ignoring fundamentals = voodoo economics?
Your 'prediction' is too simplistic lah, I also have some interest in cycles and have read up on property cycles , economic cycles, emotional cycles, 10 year cycles, 20 year real estate cycles, etc etc. Now even a femes 'property guru' is talking cycles, basically saying the bottom is near and it's now time to BBB.
Having read the various experts' cycle arguments and thus becumming a semi-expert in cycles myself, I believe your "2019, 2020 confirm up balik" prediction is wrong, unless it's a slow, slow climb. Once reason being the huge incoming supply of affordable properties.
But I won't waste time going into details. I prefer the UUU crowd to be caught by (unpleasant) surprise
What fundamentals did I miss? Supply and demand? I thought I've already clarified that the current oversupply is due to people not willing to buy at current prices. But if property prices in kv drop by 20% then the demand would meet the supply. This is based on the take up of pr1ma properties in kv where the prima properties which are around 400k are swept up by people. Since currently there are many kv properties which are priced around 500k, a 20% drop would bring it to pretty much the same price tag as those pr1ma properties. People would start buying by then.Your 'prediction' is too simplistic lah, I also have some interest in cycles and have read up on property cycles , economic cycles, emotional cycles, 10 year cycles, 20 year real estate cycles, etc etc. Now even a femes 'property guru' is talking cycles, basically saying the bottom is near and it's now time to BBB.
Having read the various experts' cycle arguments and thus becumming a semi-expert in cycles myself, I believe your "2019, 2020 confirm up balik" prediction is wrong, unless it's a slow, slow climb. Once reason being the huge incoming supply of affordable properties.
But I won't waste time going into details. I prefer the UUU crowd to be caught by (unpleasant) surprise
I've also mentioned that 2011 to 2014 was a super bull for the property sector, by 2020 I'm predicting it to be back to bullish, meaning prices would go up. Even slow climb is still a climb, even if the climb mirrors the inflation rate, you still end up paying more than buying during bottom.
What huge incoming supply of affordable properties are you talking about pr1ma? Rumahwip? If you really observe the launching prices of these properties, you will notice that it's not exactly much cheaper than other similar type of properties in the same area. Usually only 20-30% lower than the prices of other similar properties with the same size and location. So when the bottom comes next year or in 2019, when the other normal properties with no restrictions such as pr1ma and rumahwip drops by 20% and becomes almost the same price, it's pretty much a no brainer that people would buy the one without restrictions.
Jul 10 2017, 07:50 PM

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