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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V20

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scorptim
post Jul 10 2017, 07:50 PM

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QUOTE(GenY @ Jul 10 2017, 06:58 PM)
Talking about trends etc while ignoring fundamentals = voodoo economics? laugh.gif

Your 'prediction' is too simplistic lah, I also have some interest in  cycles and have read up on property cycles , economic cycles, emotional cycles, 10 year cycles, 20 year real estate cycles, etc etc. Now even a femes 'property guru' is talking cycles, basically saying the bottom is near and it's now time to BBB.

Having read the various experts' cycle arguments and thus becumming a semi-expert in cycles myself, I believe your "2019, 2020 confirm up balik" prediction is wrong, unless it's a slow, slow climb. Once reason being the huge incoming supply of affordable properties.

But I won't waste time going into details. I prefer the UUU crowd to be caught by (unpleasant) surprise  brows.gif
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What fundamentals did I miss? Supply and demand? I thought I've already clarified that the current oversupply is due to people not willing to buy at current prices. But if property prices in kv drop by 20% then the demand would meet the supply. This is based on the take up of pr1ma properties in kv where the prima properties which are around 400k are swept up by people. Since currently there are many kv properties which are priced around 500k, a 20% drop would bring it to pretty much the same price tag as those pr1ma properties. People would start buying by then.

I've also mentioned that 2011 to 2014 was a super bull for the property sector, by 2020 I'm predicting it to be back to bullish, meaning prices would go up. Even slow climb is still a climb, even if the climb mirrors the inflation rate, you still end up paying more than buying during bottom.

What huge incoming supply of affordable properties are you talking about pr1ma? Rumahwip? If you really observe the launching prices of these properties, you will notice that it's not exactly much cheaper than other similar type of properties in the same area. Usually only 20-30% lower than the prices of other similar properties with the same size and location. So when the bottom comes next year or in 2019, when the other normal properties with no restrictions such as pr1ma and rumahwip drops by 20% and becomes almost the same price, it's pretty much a no brainer that people would buy the one without restrictions.
scorptim
post Jul 11 2017, 07:40 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 11 2017, 12:35 AM)
So you are predicting property price will drop by 20%? When this will happen?
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Next year or 2019, latest also 2020

QUOTE(wild_card_my @ Jul 11 2017, 01:41 AM)
Btw, how is prima able to sell at 20% discount compared to other developers? Im in mortgage but I dont know much about properties at all - there are too many of them and I couldnt be bothered
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The margins for developers are damn high wut. Even with 20% discount still profit

scorptim
post Jul 11 2017, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 11 2017, 11:28 AM)
Since you are predicting price will drop by 20% by 2020, why not wait until 2019/20 then consider?
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Ayam waiting la, for now ayam just hunting for dead chicken because there are some which started to pop up from time to time, but still not going bbb mode yet. Will monitor prices next year then decide when to on bbb switch.

For now only snap up if super good deal.
scorptim
post Jul 17 2017, 12:26 AM

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QUOTE(GenY @ Jul 15 2017, 11:54 PM)
You didn't follow the news? Now most developers are jumping into the affordable housing aka below RM500k bandwagon. Mah Sing, UOA, Titijaya among others have very competatively priced products lined up. There are now RM2XX-3xxk apartments and RM4XXk landed in Kajang/Bangi.

Sorry, I can't help but snigger a bit at your 'predictions', as if you have a crystal ball. 20% drop from current prices by 2018 or 2019, correct? I think things won't turn out as u expected but ... ah, well ... time will tell.
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Kajang and bangi properties have always been around that price la. Just because some developers tried to goreng and sell bangi as what south kl or kl south whatever nonsense and price their condos at 400-500k and landed at 600k onwards doesn't mean the whole bangi and kajang is priced around that, you can also get landed at those areas from 400k in the subsale market la. You're pretty much only looking at the market from properties which were developed around 2014-2016 and put your market price based on that right? 😂

Anyways, its just a couple more years. Let's just see when the time comes.


scorptim
post Jul 17 2017, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Jul 17 2017, 09:20 AM)
most are held by rich fellas that die die rather let it empty than rent below market. they have holding power, many are kronnies.

for example they do biz, they want 30% profit, if you offer them 20%, they won't even bat an eye, coz they have money, money come too easy, you understand how Malaysia biz works for kronnies?
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QUOTE(unixcorp @ Jul 17 2017, 11:53 AM)
Yeah.. I know.. they just come and sweep the good units already..

I saw many so-so fellas doing rental houses using personal bank loans and hoping ppl to rent their units.. they are gonna get screwed real bad.. lol
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In everything in life you have the trend setters and the herd who follows a trend after it has boomed. The rich mostly started the trend then those so so people with their herd mentality followed and overstretched their loans to invest in property during peak pricing. The herd usually outnumber the trend setters. Hence, this is what will cause property prices to drop.

You should never aim to buy from the rich, but buy from those who are poor and desperate for money. The rich dont mind holding 10years or more to get the price that they want, but the overstretched herd can't afford to do that. With the increasing number of properties being auctioned lately, it just shows that quite a number of these unoccupied unrented units are held by the herd as opposed to rich people.

Btw, those truly rich people got so many better options to invest their money aside from property la. The whole idea that majority of unoccupied properties are being held by the rich is pretty baseless actually.
scorptim
post Jul 17 2017, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Jul 17 2017, 12:07 PM)
it's not the properties they hold that has value, it's the land they sit on.
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Still rich people got so much more investment options with higher roi than buying land.
scorptim
post Jul 17 2017, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Jul 17 2017, 12:12 PM)
if ROI is what you want go invest in JPPTR.

you are leaving risk out of your equation.

Property investment is generally slow but lower risk, as long you have holding power. everyone knows cost of building houses will just go up, so will the price.

Only time it goes down is when people no choice have to sell at lost, in which this benefit the riches even more.

notice most big companies play Property investments? of course, they don't just buy house, they buy buildings & hotels.
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People who are really rich usually take risks and they also diversify their investment so they're not afraid to invest for higher roi.

Only those midde class and upper middle class wannabe rich people so scared of risk and invest heavily in property because it's safe. These are people who have certain amount of money to invest but cannot risk losing the money. A lot are working professionals who are in their 40s onward. Not exactly rich people.

Big companies different game altogether, they can bribe govt to sell them cheap leasehold land and the develop the land and profit like 300% in like 5 years. Single unit investors will never get such high roi in such a short time from properties. Completely different playing field
scorptim
post Jul 17 2017, 12:41 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 17 2017, 12:31 PM)
According to a wealth report, only 4% of adults in the kangkong land have over us$100k net worth.

Only the herd, wannabe believe they could beat the system, the numbers, the odds, the rest of the herd members and the rich.
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Exactly my point, the whole assumption that rich people are holding the unoccupied properties are baseless. Many are just normal working adults who are usually in mid or senior management, earning 100k above per annum trying to make their riches through properties instead of the rich trying to get richer through properties.
scorptim
post Jul 17 2017, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Jul 17 2017, 03:10 PM)
you are thinking from a middle class salary man point of view.

the riches don't really bat an eye on rentals, their main goal is the big profit they get from selling. and no they don't target condos, they target big houses, shoplots & tall buildings. that is where the big money comes. of course having tenants is a plus it can cover the maintenance, and improve cash flow, but it's not a necessity.

if the businessman is cost conscious, they will usually rent it out below market price just to absorb some cost, their main interest is selling profit.
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As per bolded I think ur talking about whole different playing field here. Although the thread is titled property bubble, it's actually talking more specifically on the housing bubble in kv. You are right that the bolded type of property usually owned by rich people and they will hold until they get their selling price.

However, what people has been complaining about all these while is the prices for residential properties and the majority of people are self aware that they're not aiming for big houses. Landed houses for example, most working class are practical enough to target those with land within 2000 sq feet and even more are just targeting condos/apt within kv. So pretty much different segment/type of properties held by the rich. Hence, even more reason to support the notion that most of the unoccupied residential properties around are being held by overstretched buyers instead of rich people with holding power. That is why these residential property prices will drop with the current softer market.


scorptim
post Aug 17 2017, 09:27 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 11 2017, 01:39 PM)
Among those 141 projects, five saw year-on-year (y-o-y) double digit growth in their average absolute transacted prices. Topping the list was One Menerung in Bangsar with a 14.9% hike, followed closely by Intan Apartment in Setiawangsa with a 14.5% growth and Sang Suria Condominium in Sentul with a 13.5% growth. Putra Apartment in Setiawangsa and Desa View Towers in Melawati both achieved a 10.5% and 10.1% rise respectively.

At the opposite end, 78 condos saw sale prices drop from 2.2% to 11.7% y-o-y. The five steepest dips were experienced by Platinum Lake PV10 in Setapak at 11.7%, Abadi Indah Apartment in Taman Desa at 9.2%, G Residence in Desa Pandan at 8.9%, Seringin Residences in Kuchai Lama at 8.4% and Idaman Residence @ KLCC at 8.2%.

Meanwhile, prices at 164 condos remained unchanged, while another 124 condos did not have any comparison as there were no transactions the previous year.

https://dbv47yu57n5vf.cloudfront.net/s3fs-p...2470_locked.pdf

Believe this is the beginning of condo price dropping.
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Yep condo price dropping, ayam hope next week ayam can get this freehold condo in bb 1200++ sq feet for less than 600k, hopefully not many ppl go for the auction 😊
scorptim
post Aug 17 2017, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Aug 17 2017, 11:42 AM)
good luck. so brave. got prepare 660k cash onot
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I never buy cash from auction so far...plus my limit for the unit is 600k, so just gonna bring 60k bank draft. Even if I wanted to I don't have 600k cash.

120 days is more than enough time to secure all the approvals and loan disbursement to get the prop la. Especially since this is a freehold prop.

You just need to take leave and get your ass moving to chase for the relevant approvals and documents. Most of the time within 90 days settle. Unless you're the type who just throw to lawyer and expect them do everything for you without you chasing then gg la. But I guess my lawyer so far been good, she kena harass by me kao kao before d so now when I buy prop from auction, she will work on it on high priority to avoid me bugging her. Lol.
scorptim
post Aug 17 2017, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Aug 17 2017, 11:59 AM)
good. i guess u got a good lawyer
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It's all about hounding people bro. If ur lawyer say developer approval delay then you just need to go to developer office and hound them. They do it fast if you hound them enough.
scorptim
post Aug 17 2017, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(eddystorm @ Aug 17 2017, 12:07 PM)
condo location?
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BB area, bukit bintang
scorptim
post Aug 23 2017, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(Count Auction @ Aug 23 2017, 10:49 AM)
Chulan?
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Yea, but I kinda changed my mind last minute. Found out from a friend who lives there that the condo lately got water leaking issues and management is crap lately. Heck, dodged a bullet there.
scorptim
post Sep 22 2017, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(ALeUNe @ Sep 22 2017, 10:30 AM)
I look at bank lelong units old house.
Those terrace houses were sold MYR300K 10+ years ago, bank lelong it at starting price MYR500K+.

How to go bottom? Kek.
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Kek, no one said the drop means property reset to 10 years ago prices. Check back the price last 2 years for the same terrace house it would be around 600k, now 500k is 20+% drop from last year, berapa banyak drop lagi u mau?
scorptim
post Sep 22 2017, 12:20 PM

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QUOTE(ALeUNe @ Sep 22 2017, 12:08 PM)
I can get a new one at 600K in JB.
Any reason to get a 10+ years old house at 500K?

Is that a drop?
Kek. That's the kek I meant.
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New one same area and same size or not first? Most of the new affordable properties are at shit locations la. For example subang area those houses selling 700-800k last few years, this year can get around 600k. New property in subang is at subang pinggiran which is almost at Shah Alam d. You'd rather take the new subang pinggiran instead of 10+ years subsale??
scorptim
post Sep 22 2017, 12:44 PM

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QUOTE(ALeUNe @ Sep 22 2017, 12:23 PM)
Same area.

The lelong units are in Setia Indah JB.

The new ones in exact same area, new houses developed by IJM.
http://www.propertysia.my/austin-duta-phase-2-i88213

I'd take new units any day.
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Jb probably you get this kinda deals la but in kv dun have one la. If me also can get new unit same area same price, I'd take new le.
scorptim
post Oct 28 2017, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 28 2017, 09:51 PM)
During the property bull run, uuu/bbb loved to claim; they took the risk and deserved the profit. likewise for losses.

Leverage amplified profit as well as losses.
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In all fairness, many experienced bbb uuu knows the market well and before the market went on a downtrend they would have let go of some of their units and made sure they are not overstretched.

Only those noob investors who believe the uuu bbb hypers too much end up overstretched and property kena lelong.
scorptim
post Jan 14 2018, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(dotadellpro @ Jan 12 2018, 10:40 PM)
But how to buy? For sure not at facebook.

And where they get their info from? I want to go straight to the source.

Sorry, I am a noob at this, thank you for your help.
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All the auctions are from banks, but they will get auctioneers to auction for them. Since you noob just go through agent la, the auction agents takes their cut from the bank anyways.
scorptim
post Feb 13 2018, 12:59 PM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Feb 11 2018, 11:02 PM)
Mine klcc view.. Midfield 2 fully furnish unit (good furnishing)

Unit nu p &  c la

Your friend why rent so cheap.. Totally bare unit ah
I know got few owner rented out 1.5k totally bare unit hahaha
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Dude, you think still 2015 ah? My partly furnished unit also I rent out 1.5k only and now more and more people offering lower price. You lucky you found waterfish

QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Feb 11 2018, 11:22 PM)
Rumawip n prima is not cheap for that particular quality but good effort for entry level first time home buyer
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Agreed. Rumahwip and prima is not cheap at all

QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Feb 12 2018, 11:07 AM)
Either your friend kena cheat or he really desperate or dono the market price

Fully furnish 2.3k up there.. Total our group have more than 10units there and all our rental 2.3k up
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You go check sendiri la at mudah the price nowadays. You guys just lucky you rented out during the peak and your tenants didn’t bother find new unit.

See yourself la how many fully furnished below 2k

https://m.mudah.my/list?q=Midfields+2&ca=9_...gories&so=1&f=a


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