QUOTE(lamode @ Nov 7 2017, 11:14 AM)
if u think overnight rate is going up, go for shorter term.
if you think it is going down / maintain, go for longer term.
personally i think i will go up sometime next year.
With the recent budget 2018 announcement, my interpretation is government is stressing on GDP growth.
GDP is comprised of consumer spending + investment + government spending + net export.
Lower individual income tax, government servants bonus are encouraging consumer spending.
High speed rail and other infrastructure construction are government spending.
GDP growth is stressed over controlled inflation rate. OPR will be increased only when BNM wants to tighten the circulation of money which is against the national budget of encouraging spending.
US Fed is not likely to increase the interest rate for this year and hence not much concern on the flow back of hot money.
Hence with current scenario, I dont think BNM will increase OPR for the next 6 months unless we are facing serious cost push inflation and inflation rate is getting out of control.
Banks that need fund for lending will probably have their own promotion. The recent Am bank strategy to retain those matured FD placed 2 years ago is an example of individual bank strategy.