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 USD/MYR v5

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AVFAN
post Mar 17 2017, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 17 2017, 09:59 AM)
Yeah,... the MAS said to investors last night that they do not intend to lower the SGD band in the coming policy meeting in April because the economy looks okay now,... if this happens, then the SGD will run faster up against our RM,... don't know wished to be happy or sad here !
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 17 2017, 10:02 AM)
YES, bro AV,... my observation looks like it has repeated this time,..and yes, glad I bought earlier,.... ohmy.gif
But,... frankly, I really don't like this type of volatility even though I made quite some amt of $$$ this time,... I'd preferred to have certainty,... dry.gif
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there has been a slew of news pointing to a strengthening sg economy again - property and exports in particular.
sg stocks, sgreits, sgd - will stay strong.

of course, if still on a rm->sgd buying spree, that offers little chance. then again, u can't get all of it right all the time! the volatility is certain to keep coming, no doubt. the $'s been hammered sicne rate hike, compounded by the strong euro. but it's always the same... give it a few weeks and the $ bulls will return.

the question then is will BNM continue to crawl peg? somehow, given all i know at this time, i hold the view that there simply isn't enough fx ammo for RM to follow closely when $ goes up but will follow when $ goes down. dunno when but at some point, i say it will break away - that, i need not describe the details. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Mar 17 2017, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 17 2017, 11:17 AM)
Well u could be right...
Maybe next year only rate hike...
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the plan was to actually to CUT rates 1/2 a year ago.

then came trump win, rm dived further, dared not.

there is actually no room to cut but lesser of two evils, i think they may cut later in the year if gdp growth slows too much.

from the power hands' perspective, better to have a weaker rm, inflation, more debt, but gdp growth and votes rather no growth, NPL's and hence, lost votes.

our gdp growth is fueled by consumption and construction - both not helping the currency. so, as we consume our way to grow gdp, we also drown in more debt and an ever weakening currency. add on top the effects of corruption, kleptocracy.

until there is a total change of heart on this big gomen spending-consumption-construction modus operandi, the direction of the RM is pretty clear to me.

QUOTE(wu ming @ Mar 17 2017, 12:27 PM)
Zeti keep talking, our fundamentals are strong bla bla bla. The RM will recover bla bla bla. Depreciated until today.

Is better that she shut the f up.
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biggrin.gif

not only her, but ALL of them, incl mainstream media.

only outside analysts predictions came out correct.


AVFAN
post Mar 17 2017, 01:07 PM

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battered in the past, the rupiah has been gaining over the rm since 2014.

this new development will boost the rupiah further.

keep yr rupiahs!

ok, yr maid will ask for gaji incr soon. laugh.gif

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/16/outlier-sp-...fund-flows.html
AVFAN
post Mar 17 2017, 06:25 PM

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QUOTE(Aurora Boreali @ Mar 17 2017, 05:05 PM)
Thanks! Many interesting viewpoints here.

As far as investment goes I've only ever played with unit trust funds and even then I am extremely risk averse. Hence I am not familiar with stock trading. Anyway thanks for all of your input, I will need to digest the below and make my decision

smile.gif
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good that u realize!

the veterans and sifus here are very quick to say do this, buy that. laugh.gif

protecting currency value and investing are two different things, very diff risks and rewards.

take your time to understand both.


AVFAN
post Mar 17 2017, 07:54 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Mar 17 2017, 07:44 PM)
Lets give him some pressure to change his risk appetite  biggrin.gif

If the inflation rate in Malaysia is 3%, in five years, his RM value will lose by 15.9%

In another words, if he keeps A$ under the pillow doing nothing for 5 years, the A$1 - RM3.41 today has to appreciate to RM3.95 just to beat inflation. If A$ does not appreciate to 3.95, his inflation-adjusted wealth will shrink.

That is just the official inflation rate. We all knew it is way higher than that. Let's say it is 6%. The Aussie dollar has to appreciate to 4.56 just to beat inflation and breakeven.

So, By making the decision to come back to Malaysia, he has to sweat it out to fight inflation as well as currency depreciation just to preserve his wealth (let alone growing it). Risk averse person has no choice but to be more aggressive  sweat.gif

The solution to this dilemma is to invest in foreign currency investment. Then we take away the "RM depreciation" from the equation and fight only inflation

That's what many of us here including you and me are doing... biggrin.gif
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now, all that is correct and true!

not knowing the age, he/she may not have to chance to recover or earn more.

so, i just thought he/she need to do own paced homework against own risk aversity with precious blood-sweat-tears savings.

took me a while to realize how disastrous it is to keep in RM fd or bursa! tongue.gif

and that, i say is the biggest lesson many have learned, many have yet to:- there are devils in power only to destroy all you have saved in a lifetime.


AVFAN
post Mar 20 2017, 11:00 AM

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$ still weakening, $ index 99.98.

RM goes down with it at 4.435.

So, AUD and SGD now near all time highs against RM.



still hopeful RM will strengthen big time? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Mar 20 2017, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 20 2017, 05:10 PM)
If same old thing, don't you think it will boost the RM for short term? Investor like stability and dislike volatility.
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investors like stability but not a corruption based one - that will break at some point.



and this tragic story.. dunno who these buyers will blame who or just cry and blame the sky.

more imptly, can the project go on? who's gonna buy/own these apts?
get some arabs to donate? or will some "big pension funds" be asked to invest in it?

if it cannot go on, what happens? who's gonna bear all of $ already sunk it?

QUOTE
Report: Forest City buyers from China caught by capital controls
Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/376411#ixzz4bryMCNNU


the issue is... it is damn easy to consume FX... just import and consume. just send money away. just buy rings and bags in london.

earn FX, not so easy.
AVFAN
post Mar 20 2017, 09:02 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 20 2017, 08:59 PM)
If like that, why is indon seems more attractive now? They are more corrupt then us. I seems to see sites like bloomberg, reuters, market watch all recommending indon.
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u read the news from those sources, how come u not understand?!!
AVFAN
post Mar 22 2017, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(kopifan @ Mar 21 2017, 07:03 AM)
Highest foreign net inflow since 2013
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...low-since-2013/
Good for MYR  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
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incoming 1.7bil, big news.
outgoing 22 bil, small news.

QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Mar 22 2017, 09:09 AM)
BNM, rather than thinking of how to improve the economy go terrorize the poor rakyat and squeeze them of their money in every possible way. The government has run out of ideas to increase their revenue other than squeezing the poor rakyat.
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consistent way of doing things - bend rules to serve ONE master purpose.
if fail, exert major controls, ringfence, find scapegoats, punish and instill fear.
perhaps caught n korea madness.
AVFAN
post Mar 23 2017, 06:30 PM

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from BNM below.

assuming inflation at 3.5%, i.e. urban/suburban conservative x2 = 7%, better hope RM doesn't depr anymore. if not, say 3% depr, u gotta make yr RM work to get 10% to be just even and not lose purchasing power.

u decide things are good or not.


QUOTE
Following are the highlights of the 2016 Bank Negara Malaysia Annual Report:

Malaysian economy projected to register a sustained growth of between 4.3 percent and 4.8 percent in 2017.

Bank Negara Malaysia declares dividend payout of RM2.5 billion to the government in 2016.

The current account is expected to register a surplus of between 1.0 and -2.0 per cent of Gross National Income in 2017.

Inflation is projected to average higher in the range of 3.0 percent and 4.0 percent in 2017.

Gross exports expected to increase by 5.5 percent in 2017 versus 1.1 percent in 2016.

Gross imports anticipated to rise 6.4 percent compared with 1.9 percent last year.

Malaysia's exports and imports poised to strengthen in 2017, underpinned by projected improvements in global growth, commodity prices and sustained domestic demand.

Trade balance will remain in surplus in 2017.

Ringgit depreciated by 4.3 percent to end at RM4.486 against the US dollar in 2016.

Bank Negara Malaysia's total assets stood at RM451.0 billion, with international reserves amounting to RM423.9 billion (US$94.5 billion).

International reserves remain ample to facilitate international transactions and sufficient to finance 8.5 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

Malaysia's external debt stood at RM908.7 billion, equivalent to US$200.6 billion or 73.9 percent of GDP, at end-2016 (2015: RM833.8 billion).

The unemployment rate rose to 3.5 percent in 2016 from 3.1 percent a year ago, due to slower job creation amid more moderate economic growth.

The services sector recorded a higher growth of 5.6 percent in 2016 from 5.1 percent in 2015, backed by expansion across all sub-sectors.

Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/376792#ixzz4c8y862ti


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 23 2017, 07:02 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 23 2017, 07:10 PM

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bloomberg comments to latest BNM report:

QUOTE
Malaysia Central Bank Sees Challenging Year as Inflation Climbs
Bank Negara narrows growth forecast to 4.3%-4.8% from 4%-5%
Inflation set to accelerate and average 3%-4% on oil prices
Malaysia’s central bank said this year will be another challenging one for monetary policy as inflation pressure builds and risks loom over the economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nflation-climbs

AVFAN
post Mar 24 2017, 08:49 AM

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QUOTE
BNM to introduce new measures to deal with ringgit value
Bernama | March 23, 2017

KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is planning to introduce new measures to help businesses to deal with the ringgit’s value, Governor Muhammad Ibrahim said.
He said the measure would help hedge the ringgit against other currencies, providing a better balance in the country’s foreign exchange market.
“The Financial Markets Committee will make an announcement once the measures are discussed with the industry and businesses,” he told a briefing at the BNM Annual Report 2016 release, as well as the Financial Stability and Payments Report here today.
Meanwhile, Muhammad said BNM would announce the names of financial institutions that failed to follow procedures.
“Banks that have been penalised would also be made known to the public, including the penalty amount and reasons,” he said.
Earlier this year, BNM fined an unnamed financial institution some RM1.4 million for failing to follow the procedures.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...-ringgit-value/


AVFAN
post Mar 24 2017, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(kyone @ Mar 24 2017, 09:44 AM)
The more they implement the scarier the small fries... Big investor then I'm not sure.
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again, consistent with the modus operandi... control, control, control - "they" must comply.

alas, not everything on the planet is within the control of some big heads in a small trade and debt dependent country.

many things are happening... trump 100 days in office, china's killer capital controls, dwindling oil price, etc.

QUOTE(syirbiznatch @ Mar 24 2017, 11:31 AM)
Why it is still volatile now? I thought RM strengthen after the China pouring money..
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volatile? u mean weak RM?

$/RM been at 4.4x for months!
AVFAN
post Mar 27 2017, 11:07 AM

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"trump revolt", $ weaky weaky.

$ index 99.1.

if wanna buy $, this week looking good.

not so much for SGD, AUD... unchanged.
AVFAN
post Mar 28 2017, 09:59 AM

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SGD poised to get stronger:

QUOTE
Singapore Dollar Bulls Are Gathering in the Swap Market
by Masaki Kondo
March 27, 2017, 6:03 AM GMT+8

Rates markets indicate traders see less chance of easing
Discount to U.S. two-year swap shrinks to least since 2012

Singapore’s interest-rate markets are signaling gains for the local dollar as bets grow the nation’s central bank will avoid easing policy next month and some economists are starting to forecast tightening in October.

“The MAS has built a decent amount of reserves in the past months and, to my understanding, the central bank hasn’t fully sterilized the interventions,” he said. “That’s what’s keeping liquidity really flush.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...licy-meet-looms

AVFAN
post Mar 28 2017, 05:43 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 28 2017, 12:20 PM)
Already knew this earlier, bro,... glad I've alwys been having this outlook for the SGD ! The MAS just loves to strengthen her currency at the slightest opportunity,... if they don't do it in April,.. they'll do it later,... but sure to do it,..
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i had planned to sell some SGD for RM expense at month end.

with that news, i think i will hold a bit longer. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Mar 29 2017, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Mar 28 2017, 09:41 PM)
So many times same story over and over again, wait for this wait for that announcement, in the end  Sgd keeps going up and up against Myr. We just have to accept that Myr is just going down the drains. cry.gif
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biggrin.gif

hence the saying, "what is certain is uncertainty".

no diff with saying "RM will recover to 4.0 by @#$%" or "crude price will return to $70 by %^&*".

futile to wait as info and development never stops coming; just have to run with what u hv at any moment.


u hv bought some SGD lately, no?
AVFAN
post Mar 29 2017, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(wu ming @ Mar 29 2017, 10:57 AM)
What Bank Negara doing? So many policies in place and yet unable to stabilise the RM.
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actually, "successful".

it is very stable.

but against USD only, not recovering at all.

and worsening against other major currencies, even baht (rm1=baht7.8) and rupiah (rm1=3000 rupiah).

while the goons clap hands, i see that as a trend leading to continuous accelerated inflation.

and as usual, what is there to help RM appreciate?

is there anyone, any sector, any major effort put in for that?

or just same syok sendiri talk, harp on exports and tourists?

AVFAN
post Mar 29 2017, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 29 2017, 11:14 AM)
DFTZ, Jack Ma setting up shop in Malaysia?
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"show me the CASH"!
AVFAN
post Mar 29 2017, 12:49 PM

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the price of bnm actions:

QUOTE
Offshore ringgit NDF trades down 70% amid central-bank curbs
Officials looking to revive debt interest after foreign flight
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...eters-investors


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