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 USD/MYR v5

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AVFAN
post Jan 19 2017, 09:55 AM

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new bloomberg survey...

2017 highest risk... RMB and TWD.
lowest... PHP, INR.

RM... high geopolitical and oil risks... same as in 2016.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nt-in-2017-poll

AVFAN
post Jan 19 2017, 09:19 PM

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what other steps may gomen/bnm do if RM continues to fall?

learn from china possibilities!

2 and 5 already in action here.

QUOTE
Stemming the Tide: Six Things China Can Do Next to Curb Outflows

1) Limit Overseas Spending
2) Pressure Exporters
3) Tax Currency Transactions
4) Clamp Down on Bitcoin
5) Control Banks
6) Encourage Inflows

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ght-bitcoin-art

AVFAN
post Jan 24 2017, 11:41 AM

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Markets are reacting to trump address.

It is seen as protectionist, inward looking.

Hence the $ is falling, $ index now below 100.

It will take a bit more clarity which way the greenback will go from here.

Today, i sell some $, need rm to spend.

While rm gained to low 4.4x, it is almost unchanged with sgd and aud.

So, this round is a pure trump-$ effect.
AVFAN
post Jan 24 2017, 01:09 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 24 2017, 12:58 PM)
Bro,.. then it looks like the RM has found a new normal level with the SGD and the AUD,... the weakest ever.
*
since they now don't say much, we have little idea what they are doing.

the impt thing is the RM cannot and will not fly against all major currencies at the same time, not for a long time.

so, as long as u hv a mix of usd-sgd-aud-euro-gbp, very safe. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 24 2017, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 24 2017, 02:03 PM)
Frankly, bro,... you should now buy more of the USDs to pull-down yr average exchange rate.
*
If i hv more rm to buy, yes.

Now, more like i need rm to spend.
AVFAN
post Feb 8 2017, 09:41 PM

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usd had been falling, $ index 100.

RM had low volatility lately, hovering at 4.44.

new rules may change things, though.

QUOTE
Bank Negara refines export proceeds conversion rules to facilitate businesses
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/ar...litate-business

Malaysia's Ringgit Crackdown Spooks Overseas Investors
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...eters-investors

AVFAN
post Feb 16 2017, 01:10 PM

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There is felda/fgv jitters.

And there is 1mdb still. This below is pushing the rm down again, despite usd now pretty neutral against other majors.

Bnm have a tough job holding at 4.45 with mega scandals unresolved.

Usd 4.46
Sgd 3.14
Aud 3.44

Dun be surprised if bnm give up and let it slip according to market forces.

QUOTE
IPIC-1MDB talks on US$6.5 billion payment fail
Reuters | February 16, 2017
Abu Dhabi investment firm's demand for US$6.5 billion from Malaysian state-owned investment firm will now be up for arbitration in UK.
ipic-1mdb-3

ABU DHABI/KUALA LUMPUR: Private talks in which Abu Dhabi state fund International Petroleum Investment Co (IPIC) is seeking US$6.5 billion (RM29 billion) from Malaysia’s 1MDB fund have reached deadlock, sources familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.
IPIC took its case to the London Court of International Arbitration (LCIA) last June but the two state-owned investment companies have been trying to thrash out a private settlement since then, the sources said.
They have failed to bridge their differences, however, and may now leave the matter to the LCIA, the sources, who declined to be named, told Reuters.
The court would probably take another 15 to 18 months to reach a verdict, one source said, and the delay in resolving the dispute could prove embarrassing for both sides.
Malaysia’s government wants to distance itself from the affair, which is the focus of money-laundering probes around the world, before elections that will be called as soon as this year.
“Private settlement has hit a wall – they are disagreeing on one or two big issues. It looks like the court will have to decide,” said a source close to the talks, although he added that an out-of-court settlement was still possible.
An Abu Dhabi-based source said: “The best solution would be an out-of-court settlement, but that doesn’t seem likely.”
In December, IPIC proposed that 1MDB pay it an initial US$1.2 billion to help reach a final settlement but the Malaysian side rejected this, the sources said.
Spokesmen for IPIC and 1MDB declined to comment.
The case is also potentially embarrassing for Abu Dhabi, which is traditionally secretive about its investments.
In July last year, the US Justice Department filed lawsuits seeking to seize US$1 billion in assets bought with money stolen from 1MDB, including luxury real estate in New York, Beverly Hills and London, paintings and a private jet.
Former IPIC group executives Khadem al-Qubaisi and Mohammed Ahmed Badawy al-Husseiny were named in the US lawsuits.
Al-Qubaisi and al-Husseiny could not be reached for comment. Abu Dhabi police and government officials declined to comment.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...n-payment-fail/

AVFAN
post Feb 23 2017, 06:38 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Feb 22 2017, 05:59 PM)
Yes.  doh.gif

No signs of it strengtening either. Before CNY, it was going up and down. It looks like downward only now.
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Like i have said umpteen times...

WHAT is there to strengthen it?

BNM? Exports? Tourism? Fdi? Money coming back? Syok sendiri?

No, no... only more more scandals, more coverups, more debts, more money leaving, desperate troopers mouth foaming.

Alas, the world is not as stupid as they think.

And thats exactly what exchange rate is about - what the rest of the world think yr currency is worth.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 23 2017, 06:39 PM
AVFAN
post Feb 24 2017, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(kopifan @ Feb 24 2017, 09:26 AM)
AUD NDF just hit 10 yr high @ 3.44660 last night  rclxub.gif
USD is back-tracking a bit from 4.466 @ Wed to 4.444 this morning  thumbup.gif 
SGD NDF just hit 10 yr high @ 3.16561 this morning  rclxub.gif 
GBP continued its Feb rebound to 5.588 this morning  sweat.gif
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becos $ index softened after fed minutes released - dovish.

since rm is crawl pegged to $, it falls against all other majors.

new RM record lows being made now.

but many are happy about it, insisting it is all good, very good for exports.

like that... so good... can devalue more, ya?

QUOTE(kopifan @ Feb 24 2017, 09:36 AM)
or those buying imported goods. For e.g. I saw this dell Dell S2316H 23" Monitor used to be RRP @ 600+, now 860!!!!  rclxub.gif
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no only electronics... food will be next.

china producer prices now rising fastest in 5 years.

it will start to export higher inflation.

msia imports a lot of stuff from china.


AVFAN
post Feb 24 2017, 10:11 PM

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QUOTE(gifology @ Feb 24 2017, 01:43 PM)
Not confident in the MYR in the next 10 years unless a lot of MNCs relocate from Singapore to Malaysia.
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in the next 10 years, millions more unskilled workers (who repatriate wages home) will relocate here.

QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Feb 24 2017, 03:46 PM)
Btw, its time to target SGD$1 to Rm3.20. icon_idea.gif
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that is already here.

cimb today rm3.1965 to buy sgd1.

i see 3.30 by year end.
AVFAN
post Feb 24 2017, 10:39 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Feb 24 2017, 10:36 PM)
At the rate the Rm is falling, i would predict 3.5 at least. Go go Sgd! rclxm9.gif
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that is almost another 10%.

will happen if and when BNM decide it can't afford to intervene anymore.
AVFAN
post Feb 28 2017, 12:05 AM

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latest ringgit news...

QUOTE
Malaysia's currency curbs boomerang on bond markets

Investors' immediate concern is that the foreign money in 10.5 billion ringgit of bonds maturing in mid-March will flee. They already suspect that much of the overseas cash in an 8.75 billion ringgit chunk that matured in mid-February has left the country.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia...s-idUSKBN1660WT

Onshore forex mart going through period of adjustments
Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/373943#ixzz4Zu0DMJYD
AVFAN
post Feb 28 2017, 03:08 PM

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QUOTE(wu ming @ Feb 28 2017, 09:40 AM)
Means RM gonna drop further?
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to me, it means rm will not go up.

go down, i dunno. tongue.gif



SGD power... CIMB... RM3.2015 to buy SGD1 today.
AVFAN
post Feb 28 2017, 09:52 PM

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QUOTE(Andrew Lim @ Feb 28 2017, 09:44 PM)
People still tell me there's nothing to worry about... that since we don't import anything from Singapore it's okay.
But it's not like we're doing very well with USD either... so double whammy.
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who are these clever "people"?

ok, forget sg, usa.

check china (#1 for imports), japan, thailand, oz currencies.

they think RM is better off with those?!

20% decline with renminbi in 2 years is ok then?!

it's not like we import a lot from worse currencies of nigeria, venezeula and zimbabwe! biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 28 2017, 10:01 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 1 2017, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(Andrew Lim @ Feb 28 2017, 11:02 PM)
People on Reddit told not to worry about it. They say Malaysian food is still better, will have good business.  sweat.gif
Yeah exactly... a weak currency is good for exports in general, but also sucks for travelling.
Also I'm pretty sure JB imports treated water from Singapore.
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ya, selling more nasi lemak and charkoayteow will push RM up. tongue.gif

the right question to ask is WHY rm keeps sliding against so many others?

and for so long... >3 years and counting!

forget usd, sgd, aud...

WHY can it not stay the same as its peers - thai baht, filipino peso, rmb... even bangladeshi taka?!

of course, if one subscribe to "speculators, traitors, sabotageurs, conspirators", that will always explain everything bad.

QUOTE(kopifan @ Mar 1 2017, 07:55 AM)
Maybe bouts of USD weakness + FX reserves + maturing bonds and potential outflows? imho  hmm.gif
*
yes, $ has been declining as markets felt trump talked louder than he is doing anything.

and fed has been rather dovish in last few weeks.

but... the tide may change soon.

.. trumps speaks this morning(local time), may move markets
.. fed may actually hike rates in march:
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/28/fed-moves-t...-rate-hike.html

if rate hike and $ rises again, we will have to see if BNM will continue to crawl peg the RM or let it slide.

and against all that, nothing changes - unresolved mega scandals, hudud talk, no cut in gomen spending. still counting on exports and tourists for rm strength?
AVFAN
post Mar 1 2017, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 1 2017, 09:49 AM)
AVFAN why isn't Saudi's investment helping to boost the RM abit?
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same question as RM400 billion... china.

WHERE is the money?

if any, is it in $ coming from outside or money raised from gomen bonds, bursa, epf, local funds?
AVFAN
post Mar 1 2017, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Mar 1 2017, 11:50 AM)
The Arabs are not as 'extravagant' as they used to be, not with the current dip in barrel prices. The Chinese are very cunning people. They wont simply pour their money into you without getting 'more' from you. And like mentioned, even if the funds do come in, how sure are you those monies will be pumped into the economy or rather to 'somewhere else'?  Just take all these news with a pinch of salt.
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That is correct.

Only fools think arabs n chinamen are waterfish.

Anyway, those are just PLANS.

Like FDI approvals.

When, what and how the money come or not is another question.

Then again, snake oil sellers think they are good at selling, goons are more than happy to cheer. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Mar 1 2017, 04:03 PM

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QUOTE(kopifan @ Mar 1 2017, 01:26 PM)
That's what i interpreted as short term (Feb & Mar bonds redemption and potential outflow?)  vs long term (FDI) impact  hmm.gif
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how has fdi been in the last 10 years, what changes?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/f...rect-investment

QUOTE(kopifan @ Mar 1 2017, 01:32 PM)
there will always be "major" reversal in term of time-frame  thumbup.gif
it cannot be 1 way traffic  doh.gif
however the size of reversal before resumption of LT trend need to be revisited then  hmm.gif
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oh, it can.

currency values are not random. depends how the power ones manage the economy.

some go down, stay down and down some more - for decades.

dong, rupiah included.
http://life-in-saudiarabia.blogspot.my/201...s-of-world.html
AVFAN
post Mar 1 2017, 05:32 PM

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analysts are analysts.

predictions are just what they are - predictions.

while the band of "rm will strengthen to xyz" experts have gone all silent, here's a new one from across the causeway.

QUOTE
Outlook bleak for ringgit, say analysts
FMT Reporters | March 1, 2017
Economist: With Bank Negara's weak foreign currency reserves, ringgit's depreciation could see it drop to as low as RM3.30 against SG dollar.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...t-say-analysts/

AVFAN
post Mar 2 2017, 07:42 PM

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same old, same old...

do nothing, let the crooks go on.

what do u really expect the world to value the RM?

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...rate-unchanged/

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