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 USD/MYR v5

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AVFAN
post Mar 3 2017, 01:10 PM

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SGD can be used in JB soon?!

QUOTE
Thank you to the reader who sent this in the comment.  Taxi drivers in Johore Bharu now accept Singapore Dollars for the JB – Rochor ride. The rate is SGD12.00 per person.

It means Singapore Dollars are now legal tender in JB.

user posted image
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/johor-bh...iating-ringgit/
This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 3 2017, 01:11 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 4 2017, 02:55 AM

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fed likely to hike rates on mar 15.

will be interesting to see if bnm will continue to use reserves to intervene or let go.

QUOTE
U.S. equities chopped around the flatline on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen put an exclamation point on the possibility of a rate hike this month.

While leaving just enough wiggle room in case conditions should change, the central bank leader said economic improvements of late will be a big part of the discussion at the March 14-15 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
...
Market expectations for a March rate hike have skyrocketed to 81 percent, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, on the back of hawkish rhetoric and solid economic data.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/03/us-markets.html
This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 4 2017, 02:58 AM
AVFAN
post Mar 6 2017, 05:18 PM

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QUOTE(kyone @ Mar 6 2017, 05:01 PM)
http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/article/f...laysian-ringgit

Analyst thinks MYR might strengthen against SGD.
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this report, analysis is good, very sound.

"MYR might strengthen against SGD"... i read it saying MAS might recalibrate their band and slope to keep the SGD from rising in tandem with USD, i.e. it needs to balance with the SGD with RM and RMB which are major trading partners. now, that has been speculated, rumured since >1 year ago. yet, month after month, it strengthens against the RM.

last couple of days, SGD declined against RM. i see this as not due to MAS/SGD but that the USD regaining strength from $ index 99.6100 to 102 to 101.4 today as the fed gets hawkish. The RM has been crawl pegged to the USD (at 4.45) with BNM intervention which explains why it gained against SGD.

for the near future, i do not see MAS/SGD doing anything unusual. and i quite certain the fed will hike rates by 25bps on mar 15 (mar 16 here).

where the RM goes will depend how much more BNM wants to intervene with FX reserves to keep up with USD.

my bet is after fed hike rates, it will let go and let it slip but not higher than 4.50.

SGD will be closer to 3.20.

just what i think... let's see, shall we? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Mar 6 2017, 05:46 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 6 2017, 05:37 PM)
SGD has always been tightly controlled by MAS. MAS has adopted the strategy of currency control as a tool to stabilize the economy, where other country mostly use interest rate as a tool. Because SG does not use interest rate as a tool, the interest rate has been mostly flat. Sg is the only country in the world to use currency control as a monetary policy.

Current MAS position is 'neutral' against a basket of currency. The composition of the basket is secret but it is speculated to include most of it;s major trading partners which includes mostly RMB and USD..

Why MAS use currency control instead of interest rate? It is maybe because of cash horde of foreign currency it is holding, its positive current account balance and surplus budget. No other country can match the financial powers of small Singapore which is why it is rated at AAA. (Super safe)

In comparison USA is rated AA+, EU is rated AA and Malaysia is only rated A-

As long as MAS maintain neutral or positive position, your SGD buying power is mostly guaranteed. Unless MAS change to negative, then only you need to worry. MAS revise the policy every April and October.
So SGD strength over the many many years is not by chance, but is tightly controlled by MAS. Below is the estimated SGD NEER chart, last policy in changed 2015 has left unchanged until now.

user posted image
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thanks for posting the background.

useful for those who don't already know! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Mar 8 2017, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Mar 8 2017, 10:13 AM)
At this juncture, it is no longer about economic numbers and such. It is above risk and confidence in the politics of the nation.
SG, a stable and transparent nation vs Msia, an unstable and rather opaque governance with multiple socio/political/religious risks.
Where, as a FDI would you rather?
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yep, it has passed that stage.

what comes next?

maybe BRAZIL can offer a glimpse... a country once touted as a star in BRICS, an oil exporter too.

but like boland, it's a developing economy, full of unabated corruption. only that they threw out the president while the #1 here continues to enjoy great support.

check out the value of the brazilian real...

QUOTE
Brazil tumbles deeper into its worst ever depression
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/08/brazil-tumb...depression.html


AVFAN
post Mar 9 2017, 09:50 AM

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$ index rising as mar 15 nears, 102.17.

and crude lost 5% last night.

yet RM still at 4.45x, 3.14x /SGD, 3.35x/AUD.



not a bad time to buy $ or SGD, today!


AVFAN
post Mar 9 2017, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 9 2017, 10:20 AM)
SGD have been flat at 3.155 - 3.16 for this week.  sweat.gif How is that a good time? Unless fall to 3.14x then good time  rclxms.gif unless it's going up further  hmm.gif  cry.gif
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not sure if u r quoting buy or sell rates.

i quoted middle rates, so u can estimate the buy-sell rates.

if u think buy sgd1 with rm3.15x or $1 with rm4.46x is no good, u can always wait!

i know u r very particular about tiny cost savings. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 9 2017, 11:29 AM
AVFAN
post Mar 9 2017, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Mar 9 2017, 09:59 AM)
Ya, SGD and AUD retreated a little. Could have some more room before 15/3 I reckon...
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 9 2017, 11:15 AM)
Yes, bros,... I've been waiting for today,.... BUT I think it's still too early to go in,... the rise in USD will still have further legs to go.
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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 9 2017, 11:31 AM)
I am quoting money changer's rate of them selling SGD. It's been flat this since last week at 3.155-3.16 so not interesting yet. Hopefully it drop to 3.145. Then I change some more.
You are saying it will go up?

For USD ya la as it's "pegged" so even if it goes higher, we are actually getting more USD.  thumbup.gif
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if wanting to buy usd/sgd/aud with rm, but not buying now, waiting.. will be right if...

1. rate hike happens on mar 15.
2. bnm continues to use reserves to "peg" rm to the $.

me, i am buying 1 but not 2.

that basically is the view anyone need to take.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 9 2017, 11:54 AM
AVFAN
post Mar 9 2017, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 9 2017, 02:10 PM)
I'm also thinking like the above, Showtime,... BUT there have been instances in past hikes whereby as the news to the hike gathers steam, the USD will strengthen strongly,....... and then AFTER the hike, or even upon the hike, the USD weakens back,....
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And that... is a possible scenario.

If that will be the case, $ drops, RM follow?

If RM follow, it will drop against all other majors... sgd, aud...

So, better buy fx now or later? biggrin.gif

Just hv to hold a view n run with it.

If diversified already, it may not matter much overall.
AVFAN
post Mar 9 2017, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(jay14smith @ Mar 9 2017, 03:17 PM)
NZD is dropping drastically, anyone knows why?
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Just google.

Milk powder prices falling.
AVFAN
post Mar 9 2017, 06:08 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 9 2017, 05:53 PM)
I think just apportion out the targetted amt to be changed over the next few days, and chg over daily,... final day of change to be daytime, March 15, Wednesday. Ann't will be that night, our time,....
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My approach is simple.

No need to overthink, over calculate, over anticipate.... the info is never all there in the first place.

IF want to buy, just buy in the quantities u need.

If no need, or no use for the fx, dun buy.

I have bought.

Now, i wait for month end, see what happens then.

If favorable, i will cash out the amount i planned.

Need some RM to help out the flagging economy here. laugh.gif

AVFAN
post Mar 12 2017, 11:49 AM

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this new development is not going to help the RM.

of course, the menteris will be rushing to say unaffected, no problem, as usual.

QUOTE
Country Garden halts Malaysian housing sales amid capital flight crackdown
To further curb capital outflows, the Chinese government in January banned its citizens from converting yuan into other currencies for overseas property purchases.
In the same month, Wu Bijun, general manager of Country Garden’s finance centre, who will become the company’s chief financial officer in April, told the Post that its projects in Malaysia had been affected by the government’s crackdown on capital outflows.
Alan Ho, a former sales agent at Country Garden’s Malaysia company, said about 90 per cent of Forest City buyers were from China.
http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/art...laysian-housing


this report is saying high probability there will be 3 fed rate hikes this year.

QUOTE
But in recent weeks, Fed officials mobilized a campaign to tell the markets it's time to hike and they could move in March, while expectations were for a June rate increase and then possibly one other this year. The market got on board with a March hike and is warming up to three increases for 2017.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/10/the-impact.html


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 12 2017, 12:13 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 13 2017, 08:56 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 13 2017, 07:11 PM)
The country garden case... I went to look at their show room one time...

I saw they are trying to build a whole freaking city, not just houses to be sold to chinaman..

How many people need to rent out if all the houses bought are bought up....and where is the population to stay there..

look look see see, think this is crazy, went off.  tongue.gif
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this place is designed for rich china people to make 2nd home.

locals will not buy, will not rent.

the poilitikus are now saying it's ok, others will buy... maybe arubs with billions to donate.


AVFAN
post Mar 14 2017, 10:18 AM

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i really still can't see how the RM can strengthen.

except raising GST which bijan is very proud of.

QUOTE
At the Bank Negara board meeting Monday, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said he was informed that without GST, the country's deficit "would be at 6% or 7%" instead of the existing 3.5%. 
"The ringgit would be valued much lower at RM6 or RM7 per US dollar because we will not be given good rating by international agencies as they feel that our revenue is insufficient to meet administrative and development expenditure. 
Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017...Mfv6YWHZOH76.99

AVFAN
post Mar 14 2017, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Mar 14 2017, 03:40 PM)
Raising gst rates and strengtening the RM are two different issues. How sure are you GST money collected are used for its intended usage?
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QUOTE
Fiscal policy is the means by which a government adjusts its spending levels and tax rates to monitor and influence a nation's economy.

Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country, like the central bank or currency board, controls the supply of money, often targeting an inflation rate or interest rate to ensure price stability and general trust in the currency.
collecting gst or any other tax will help the currency.

becos that is major revenue for gomen to spend.

but if that is not enough, gomen will need to borrow - that drives currency down.

of course, if a gomen squander, plunder, leak or steal money, no amount of taxes will be enough - will still need to borrow.

and that is precisely why the borrowings keep rising.

but taxation has an optimum point, beyond which the tax rate will slow/halt consumer spending/gdp growth - gomen will NOT collect more revenue.

the singing has been going on for some time now - cut all subsidies.

and raise taxes, borrow more, i suppose.

to keep going the way it is.

i don't see any change coming, does anyone?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 14 2017, 10:35 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 16 2017, 02:56 AM

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QUOTE
Fed Raises Benchmark Rate as Inflation Approaches 2% Target
Policy makers still project three total rate hikes for 2017
FOMC sticks with ‘gradual’ plan for removing accommodation

AVFAN
post Mar 16 2017, 11:58 AM

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rm21bil is not a small amount.

if foreigners are selling, who is buying?

QUOTE
PETALING JAYA – Foreigners have sold RM21.71bil worth of government bonds in the last three months, reducing their share of holding in the debt papers to 28.7% as of end February from a peak of 34.7% last year.

According to Bank Negara, 70% of the debt papers that were sold by foreigners have less than three years to mature and the bulk of them will expire in less than a year.

“The selldown was largely due to the unwinding of the NDF (non-deliverable forwards) positions by non-resident financial institution investors,” said Bank Negara’s financial markets committee which released a statement following a roundtable discussion on the domestic bond market development last Friday.
AVFAN
post Mar 16 2017, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(wu ming @ Mar 16 2017, 10:53 AM)
Relax don't need to panic. Najib will do something.
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sure he will.

options are:

.. cut gomen spending, incl giving out free money
.. raise gst, raise other taxes
.. issue new sukuks and bonds, i.e. borrow more
.. sell more national assets to foreigners

which one(s) u think? biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Mar 16 2017, 04:52 PM

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looks like this scenario has happened.

QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 9 2017, 02:10 PM)
I'm also thinking like the above, Showtime,... BUT there have been instances in past hikes whereby as the news to the hike gathers steam, the USD will strengthen strongly,....... and then AFTER the hike, or even upon the hike, the USD weakens back,....
*

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 9 2017, 02:18 PM)
And that... is a possible scenario.
If that will be the case, $ drops, RM follow?
If RM follow, it will drop against all other majors... sgd, aud...
So, better buy fx now or later? biggrin.gif
Just hv to hold a view n run with it.
If diversified already, it may not matter much overall.
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case of "buy on the rumor, sell on the news"?! biggrin.gif

after rate hike, $ weakened... rm down with it.

those who recently bought SGD, AUD... rclxms.gif

AVFAN
post Mar 17 2017, 12:15 AM

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why the $ fell after rate hike:

QUOTE
The dollar dropped to a five-week low against a basket of currencies on Thursday, still reeling from the previous session, when a statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve statement failed to signal a much faster pace of monetary policy tightening.

The U.S. currency also slid to a two-week-low against the yen, and a five-week trough versus the euro.

The Fed on Wednesday lifted the target overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent, but stuck to its original forecast of three rate increases this year. Investors were expecting four rate hikes in 2017.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/15/dollar-wall...ports-euro.html


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