that much is obvious.

last 2 days, $ dropped against all majors - euro, yen, RMB... due to combination of "doubts on trump" and RMB short squeeze.

yet RM now 3.1645 buying SGD.

nowhere to run...



anyone been shopping lately will know how prices are rising and rising, incl foodcourts.

notice how the food sellers are now selling fried chicken 1/2 the size it used to be, mushrooms no more whole but shredded into pieces, pau size down by 1/4?

strange this round, no menteri's been talking "do 3 jobs", "cook yr own meals", "stop shopping", unlike the time of GST launch.

my bank quotes this morning for SGD:

by 3.1645
sell 3.0945

the 2.2% spread sucks big time.

such a terrible spread ONLY with SGD, not USD or others.

i think same for all local banks - too much SGD/RM exchanging going on, banks making a killing.

ya, money changer smaller spread, normal... cash, usually small amounts.

bank TT rates RM->SGD will be terrible, terrible.

no details but we know:

oct 2016 98.145
nov 2016 96.394
dec 2016 94.600

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/f...change-reserves

can't say...

because the net no. is a result of many items - trade balances, current account, other capital movements.

sometimes BNM or menteri will mention some details but last 2 months, quiet.

No, buying SGD1 is RM3.1645; selling SGD1, u get RM3.0945.

RM3.12 is money changer rate, i would guess.

about the reserves, BNM did said something apparently:

$ index has gone from high of 103.81 to 101.70 or 2% in the last 1 week.

but RM is still at 4.474.

yen, euro, aud, sgd all high vs RM.

you wonder if the RM is actually that weak or BNM is now buying $ to maintain the "peg" with $ while boosting reserves at the same time.

ya, everyone noticed.

$ index now 101.67, declined a lot.

SGD 3.13
AUD 3.33

perhaps it is true... intervention was to keep $/RM "peg", to hell with the rest.

so, all that menteri, bnm, experts talk of recovery to 4.3, 4.1 is BS... for now.

bad bad news for parents needing AUD, SGD for education.

and yes, we will have to see what happens when $ rises again.

that's about right, confirms what we said.

0.025/4.5245 = 0.55%.

$ index dropped from 103.6 to 101.6 = 2.0%.

specifically about the weak RM and relatively much stronger AUD now, it is now very painful for parents who planned to send their kid(s) to oz.

a medical degree will probably cost RM1.2 mil now, engineering RM800k.

even local monash will cost >RM200 (1/2 fees, half expense) total for a basic 3 yr degree.

very good for those who get paid for 100% by tax payers.

very bad for those not eligible and have no money to do private.

except those fly by night-buy a degree programs.

$'s been falling big time, -2% within 2 weeks - questions on trump policy, profit taking, etc.

bnm "intervention" can mean both ways - buy or sell $, i.e. sell or buy RM.

my read is BNM is keeping volatility low, a crawling peg, so there is buy and sell $ going on.

the side effect is while volatility is controlled for $, it is not so for the others.

$ index fell below 101 just now.

that's 2.5% from its peak.

time to buy $!

if u look at SGD/AUD over the last 5 years, they were at parity many times last year.

sg almost fell into recession but rebounded fast, less need for MAS to recalibrate the FX band/slope.

if the economy picks up nicely this year, foreign funds will go back in.

we will then see 3.3x with the RM, like the AUD.

"reduce speculation of the currency"

is that part of a blame game on a created fictitious enemy?

WHO is speculating the RM?

how can anyone do that in a meaningful way when it is not traded offshore like other currencies?

or foreign investors selling bursa and mgs are "speculators"?

or anyone selling RM to convert to other currencies for whatever purpose but complying with new rules are "speculators"?

i wish somebody can explain who is speculating, how much and how!

and why doesn't any of the top guns want to talk about the root reasons for lack of confidence?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 13 2017, 08:01 PM

on this, do read what turkey is doing for its lira now.

the lira lost 17% in 2016 and another 10% in first 2 weeks of 2017.

crisis of confidence - terror, low reserves, people keeping fx under their pillows, etc.

like here, very reluctant to raise int rates but did so in nov 2016, not much help.

now, tightening liquidity, raising interbank borrowing costs, expected to raise rates again soon.

but i have not read anything about capital controls, stopping people from changing money.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 14 2017, 01:51 AM

the rm/sgd rout sharpened in 2015 and continued in 2016, in tandem with rm/usd.
but yes, the direction has been same and clear for last 10 years.

of course.
compare 6% pa roi in sgd with 4% in rm.
with sgd/rm gaining 7-8% a year.
this is not fictitious, been like that for last 2-3 years for certain types of inv.
many people here did that going back 1, 2, 5 years ago.

it is futile to try to guess what the ex rates will be.
but good enough to come to a conclusion about the DIRECTION from this point.
for yrself and hence yr actions.
if no action, it's just academic, for fun, for forum talk only.

some thoughts on the future direction...
.. what root causes in last 2 years?
.. will these root causes u-turn and reverse?
.. are major things being done to reverse the trend or same or more of the same?
.. are the same people still in charge doing the same things going in the same direction?
.. never mind the local experts - they always say what is politically correct.

it is simply not possible in a capitalist model for a currency to strengthen on its own while the internal resources are not put to good use but wasted, leaked or vanished - over decades.
if it is possible, there will be no poor nations, no poor people on the planet.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 14 2017, 10:46 AM

since when did a local expert has said otherwise?!

it is never a straight line but with ups and downs.

impt thing is whether it is directionally up or down - from this point - and why.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 14 2017, 08:50 PM

very interesting...

if u hold the view that gbp with brexit trouble will eventually be better than rm with xmdb drag, current and future, that will be way to go.

i will take some time to explore this, maybe buy some gbp denominated stocks/etf's.

yes, it was on the verge of recession but now back up strong!

yep.

.. i was going to buy some uk etf tonight in nyse.

last night close, now gbp rebounded, no chance...



this rm/usd crawling peg may end up hurting more than not.

but i think bnm is also "pegging" with RMB in mind, a delicate balancing act.

as usd weakens with trump effect fading, rm will go weak against others like sgd, aud.

so, congrats to all sgd, aud hoarders!

the thais are nervous...?

we wait for NST or utiusan to "scold" them as response.