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 Fundsupermart.com v15, 基金超市第十五章 - Rise the Dragon

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dasecret
post Sep 13 2016, 12:23 AM

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QUOTE(lukenn @ Jan 13 2016, 11:49 PM)
I've been seeing a lot of talk regarding RHB Asian Total Return Fund, and I have to admit I kena influenced. "Sum yuk yuk" by the looks of the performance numbers and wanted to make an allocation. So I did some research, and I'm sharing my summary :

1. Feeds into United Asian Bond Fund.
2. United Asian Bond fund
    - has SGD, USD class
    - fixed income only
    - size ok : SGD 170m+
    - track record long : 15 years
    - allocation : overweight china, overweight financials
    - Average maturity : 8.2 yrs
    - Average YTM : 5.2%
3. Areas of concern : allocation, maturity, YTM
4. Below are the 1 year charts :
    - Top orange = SGD/MYR vs RHB ATR vs UOB ABF - SGD Class
    - Bottom orange = USD/MYR vs RHB ATR vs UOB ABF - USD Class

[attachmentid=5796483]

Prognosis : too late.
Option : buy in SGD.
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QUOTE(lukenn @ Sep 12 2016, 03:22 AM)
Actually ATR is behaving as expected. Unfortunately, for most investors, diligence stops at performance tables, without knowing the how and why.

I did my own dd early this year on ATR here, if you're interested. The diagrams will answer your question.

Also, your making it sound like volatility is a bad thing. It just needs to be managed, not avoided. 😁😁
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Timely reminder there. So assuming I didn't quite missed the boat and currently has 16% IRR for this fund. What's your recommendation, hold or sell? USD n SGD inching higher drool.gif
Selling a reasonably healthy fund seems to be counter intuitive to me

QUOTE(yuatyi @ Sep 12 2016, 12:12 PM)
Point taken. Thanks.  smile.gif  My concern it more to how ATR's volatility fits into my particular portfolio. More on its effect on my entire portfolio when taken in as FI. Not exactly saying ATR is a bad fund. It has got great track record and a FSM recommended fund. That's why I was said a few threads back that maybe that fund was initially recommended to me as part of my portfolio since I have 7 years horizon to make it work out'

Thanks for sharing that link. It's very informative. Just as expected, ATR works great with longer horizon. I like that it has SGD class as well as MYR but not very comfortable that it overweight China. Then again who knows maybe the dragon would rise again in very near future. As I have to rebalance my portfolio now I need to review having ATR as part of it. I am aware that volatility is an expectation in EQ funds and UT itself. And I just need to make the best of it through proper diversification and fund allocation/rebalancing to minimize the risk exposure for greater results.

I really appreciate your kind input. Hope to receive more guidance in future.  notworthy.gif
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1. The RHB ATR feeds into the SGD class
2. I think he was talking about the gains in 2014-2015 mainly came from forex gains against SGD, and USD (RMB loosely pegged to USD); hence why missed the boat if you try to buy it in 2016.
As a result, the investment horizon may not be so critical here

The United Asian Bond (SGD) class returns as attached
Attached Image

The longer term annualised return is still about 6%-8%. Not too bad, but not what you would get in 2015

p/s: Merely translating techie greek-like language into layman terms tongue.gif Could have done it completely wrong though
dasecret
post Sep 13 2016, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Sep 13 2016, 12:00 PM)
Aisey, ninja trick cannot work if you are hoping to take advantage of a few days of market madness. I believe FSM operates on forward pricing? If we really want to "play the market", then have to modify the ninja trick. If you have volatile funds in your portfolio, i.e. with risk rating of 9-10, please consider setting up a mirror image bond fund.

For e.g.

1.  You have EISC with a risk rating of 9. Consider holding RM10K or whatever amount you are comfortable with in Eaststpring Bond Fund. Market madness happens. EISC drops 3-5% within 1-2 weeks time.

2. Transfer RM10K from Eastspring Bond Fund into EISC using free credit points.

3. If you are a trader, after the market recovers, switch back the RM10K plus the excess profits from EISC to Eastspring Bond Fund.

Note to forumers here :  The above is an EXAMPLE of trading and NOT long term unit trust investment. Do it at your own risk.
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Wow... The boss of credit ninja has spoken

I've not even refined my skills on the basic credit ninja yet, did more steps than necessary and took up precious days. It's ok la, precious lessons learned

I have no intention of following that though, requires way too many bond funds including some pretty useless ones like RHB money market or CIMB-principal bond fund and very inefficient portfolio for my way of buy and do nothing strategy

But TQ for sharing, really eye opener
dasecret
post Sep 13 2016, 01:46 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 13 2016, 11:59 AM)
Bos, Global Leaders is ALSO a Feeder Fund. That 0.16% is not "accurate". rclxs0.gif
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Sep 13 2016, 12:07 PM)
Boss, saya tahu Eastspring Global Leaders is also a feeder fund. Tapi it feeds into ONE global fund only and not THREE separate global funds no?

Err...why is the 0.16% expense ratio not accurate? Please enlighten me.  notworthy.gif
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Bean counter's type geeky topic. Let me try to answer that

Previously something like this was discussed in the PRS thread on those PRS funds that feed into existing UTF

So for Global leaders, similarly the management fees was charged by the M&G fund as reflected in NAV daily, the management fee would then be refunded to EI Global Leaders and it is netted off against the management fee charged by EI Global Leaders. As a result the MER would look ridiculously low, but you obviously still pay management fee la, fund managers don't work for free

Excerpt from the accounts
Attached Image

CIMB GTF however, I have no explanation for why the MER is so high. Perhaps someone should write to them to demand for an explanation hmm.gif
*that person is not me*
dasecret
post Sep 14 2016, 06:47 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Sep 14 2016, 12:30 PM)
Revisiting an old topic. FSM sales fee now at 0.57%. Siapa berani pinjam Ah Long, max out personal loan on credit card, etc. to raise money.

Use the money to buy a low risk rating balanced fund at 0.57% fees. Later intra switch to a bond fund with the same fund house. Voila! You have a few hundred thousand credit points to play with.

This is what I call titanium balls.
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Well, I'm quite sure I won't do it although I do have some money in CMF to make it worth my while
But I've accumulated some credits so far and haven't even use them yet

Anyway, for discussion sake which low risk balanced fund would you go for at this point? Market quite volatile wei, all the RHB local funds don't know will go down further or not; ringgit is quite weak at the moment, if ringgit strengthen foreign funds like RHB Asian Income fund may lose money... it does take about a week for the whole process to go through

And tips to those who plan to do it, don't buy the following funds as there's no FI fund for intra switch:
- RHB Smart series funds
- Aberdeen funds
Boss any other fund house to add?

p/s: I'm so sure FSM would read this but just smile instead of doing anything about it, best customer retaining tool ever. With hundred of thousands of credit points don't think they would go anywhere else

dasecret
post Sep 15 2016, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(lukenn @ Sep 14 2016, 09:24 PM)
The short answer : to follow your pre-determined plan which you have prepared before taking on the position.

If your plan was to rebalance down, then sell. If your plan was  to cut losers and load winning positions, then buy.

😁😂😁😂😁😂
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This kind of wishy washy answer.... shakehead.gif

QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Sep 14 2016, 06:56 PM)
For discussion purpose only......what about RHB Asian Income Fund or Affin Hwang Select Balanced Fund (in FSM's Recommended List)?
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QUOTE(adele123 @ Sep 15 2016, 09:15 AM)
While i'm a person who believes in lowering transaction cost, playing around with the credits seems a little risky considering there's always promo every now and then, not to mention referral, etc.

anyway, there are not many fund houses that we can choose for this purpose. I thought RHB charges RM25 for every switch?

for discussion purposes, there's affin hwang select income fund, which while it's considered fixed income, sales charge is being incurred, i wonder if it's considered 'loaded' units. for the purpose you mention, this would be 'safer' i guess.
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The conventional Hwang Select income fund is no longer available for purchase on FSM as mentioned few pages ago, the shariah equivalent - Affin Hwang AIIMAN Select Income Fund still can buy it seems

On RHB intra switching, switching out or into RHB Money Market fund does not attract RM25 switching fee and at the same time can use credit. Tips from our resident credit ninja master thumbsup.gif
dasecret
post Sep 22 2016, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Sep 20 2016, 08:54 PM)
it is the time of the year again..... last year was in Nov.
(just like the usual time of the month for the opposite sex)....
time for reflections after the few days of holiday break....

just noticed that my investment ROI is about 12%
just did a mental calculation.....if my investment portfolio were to increase 10% pa consecutively uninterrupted for another 6 1/2 years.....
my investment ROI is about 65 + 12 = 77%
which would mean a 10 yrs investment period...... bangwall.gif an approximate IRR of about 6.5%??
cry.gif  realized that "dasecret" was right when he said, "mathematically" impossible to achieve my dream IRR of 8%

if I were to insist on IRR as a mean to see how my investment performed.....then I guess no amount of "GOOD" basket of diversified funds can help to get that......thus not fair / right / correct way of judging how my selected funds performed.

hmm.gif if I dun't look at IRR as a whole, should I look at M-O-M or Y-O-Y to see how my selections of funds in my portfolio performed?

rclxub.gif
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Actually something I suggested last time that you have not considered is - Injecting new capital. Is that not an option?
Anyway, I think pink boss does his 12 months rolling returns to consider current CAGR instead of keep going back to the dark times and not see any improvements in the IRR. Perhaps you can do that too
But the KEY is, you need to normalise your portfolio. Decide on your asset allocation for the long term, and plan how would you rebalance to that position within the next 3-6 months. Holding on to the bunch of MY smallcap funds is not a sensible mid-long term plan

QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 20 2016, 09:02 PM)
You may want to consider mr guy way. Watch the nav for low value. Buy in. Once it exceeded a certain threshold, sell. He make 7+% with that method. No DCA what so ever.
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You know what, what you suggested is not what uncle looi asked for. It's just what you wanted desperately for people to endorse. The only way to know if it works is for YOU to go test it out and report back.

As a responsible forumer I must however highlight that even guy3288 seems to think luck is on his side when he does it, and our precious metal guy also did not encourage people to follow his method although he has an IRR of 70+%

QUOTE(vincabby @ Sep 20 2016, 09:40 PM)
say for 3 years scope, that means 21% at the end of 3 years. I sell and not invest? just one scenario.
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QUOTE

1. If "investment" is no good after 3 years of "commitment"

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QUOTE

As for portfolio re-balancing raised by Xuzen, I always insist that, first and foremost, we re-balance through top up. Only if this is not possible that we sell funds which are over-represented.
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I like this 2 methods particularly, it's easier for a haphazard person like me. Methododical is not quite for me.

I have quite a few funds with >21% returns after 3 years, but I'm not selling them since they are moving in the right direction. One of it is the latest darling in this thread, RHB Asian Income fund that I have for >3 years and IRR is 10+%
dasecret
post Sep 22 2016, 02:16 PM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Sep 22 2016, 12:38 PM)
there are certain period in times (historically.... past few years)..that would be a very good and fruitful options... 
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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 22 2016, 12:46 PM)
Why is that so? (smallcap)

We will see. We will see.

Also, I have something to asked you. Why do you prefer Affin Quantum (Ponzi 1) vs Cimb AP (Ponzi 2) when Ponzi 2 have lower risk and better track records?
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MY smallcap - If you read the recent article by FSM, there is liquidity risk and therefore it is recommended for it to form no more than 20% of overall portfolio. I believe uncle looi is holding way above that and hence reminded him to reconsider asset allocation.
Of course, this don't apply to people who think gambler's style is better than asset allocation method

Ponzi 1 vs Ponzi 2 - as T231H pointed out, the 2 funds invest in fairly different markets and are not so correlated. Ponzi 2 did very well in 2013-first half 2015 but is heading downhill lately while ponzi 1 is on uptrend this year. So no right or wrong answer. I have both.
Just that I have a bunch of Asia ex JP fund and ponzi 1 is less correlated to them while ponzi 2 is highly correlated to them.
Risk rating sometimes don't mean a lot. REITs fund is another good example. ponzi 1's volatility is fairly low even compared to large cap asia pac funds like AmAsia equity income or EI Asia pac fund

QUOTE(yklooi @ Sep 22 2016, 12:56 PM)

Injecting new capital...
injected at wrong time & wrong place...could make the current IRR worst.

12 months rolling value....that is a good option.. thumbsup.gif

past few days had been rethinking....
most probably,..kicking out some small cap funds to CMF.....
most probably,...
50% in Asia Pac thru Ponzi 1 & 2
30% in M'sia thru KGF and EISC
20% CMF......for Sailang and pull back..... thru timing the corrections and sell this 20% when gained 5%

Timing the corrections.... Are you feeling lucky! Punk 
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Good luck is all I can say lor
Capital injection I'd do using RSP method lor, right or wrong also would be averaged out, won't be highest or lowest
dasecret
post Sep 23 2016, 12:40 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 23 2016, 11:49 AM)
I'm in the mood for more analogies and stubborn people-shooting rolleyes.gif

If this doesn't make u understand, u are hopeless. Really.

Someone bought Maybank shares at RM8.00 somewhere mid-2010.
When Maybank go up to RM9.00 somewhere 2011, his broker tell him he can sell his Maybank shares at RM8.00 each. He asked no further questions.
When Maybank went up to RM10.50 somewhere 2013, his broker still tell him he can sell his Maybank shares at RM8.00 each. He asked no further questions.
Now Maybank is trading at RM7.69. For some reasons he decided to sell now. His broker tell him, "Mr Ram! Lucky for u, u had me as your broker, u still can get back RM8.00 for each Maybank shares u hold!" biggrin.gif

"Wow, thank you Mr Con! I've been receiving dividends every year without fail and now I can sell back my shares at cost. You really are a super broker! I love u kuat-kuat!" wub.gif
doh.gif

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 23 2016, 12:00 PM)
Walao.  vmad.gif  mad.gif  bangwall.gif I never kacau you also.
At least good or bad times I am assured the 6% whistling.gif imagine bad for 3-4 years. Apa nak buat. Or repeat of 1998 people all panic left & right all withdraw to cut loss but those with ASX FP cool as cucumber.
Asal ~ +-EPF returns & must be > FDs for stable monthly income cukup la.
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Hopefully some day you realise he's not kacau-ing you but instead putting money in your pocket.... I couldn't be bothered jor, waste saliva

QUOTE(river.sand @ Sep 23 2016, 12:21 PM)
Well, I would say it all boils down to your investment horizon.
If it's less than 5 years, ASx makes good sense;
If its more than 10 years, 6% and 10% makes a lot of difference.
(Between 5 and 10 is a grey area.)

Btw, Muslims these days love to talk about syariah compliant. I wonder if the 'assured dividend' of ASx is syariah compliant.
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Sounds like broken record - ASB is not syariah compliant, bumis who are non-muslims also can buy
Anyway, dividend is not exactly assured la, just constructive obligation due to past performance and it's the people's expectations. It's quite different from EPF Act minimum 2.5% guaranteed returns
Btw, most people who put in ASM/ASW don't touch their money one, cos fear of once sold difficult to buy back... so we are talking about 20 years horizon instead of <5 in most instances for non-bumis

QUOTE(xuzen @ Sep 23 2016, 12:29 PM)
India Huat ar!

Tech sector Huat ar!

Even grandma-type Asnita Bond also not bad.

Dasecret RHB Asian Income Fund also not bad eh?

Xuzen
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Err... If Asnita is grandma then RHB Asian Income is aunty lor, semi boring-ish returns
You don't want to try out ponzi 1.0 meh?

dasecret
post Sep 26 2016, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Sep 25 2016, 09:22 PM)
it's still back to the issues of transparency

And i am surprised that SC is ok about it. By right, all mutual funds should follow the same reporting format.
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 26 2016, 11:44 AM)
The existence of institutional funds like EPF, KWAP, LTAT, ASx and so on is actually not healthy for the market, especially so for a small market like ours.

They collectively form a large % of the market.

In a way they can and could inflate prices in the market and keep the market from falling, in a sense preventing market efficiency. Keep index stocks up, make the composite index up, make the economy look stable, make the government look good.

Some would argue, everyone is participating, so I'd lose out if I don't participate. I'm just one individual, what change can I make?

This is exactly the mentality that kept our rotten government in power.

A fair market begins with u, a fair world begins with one small step.
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How can I not join in ASx related discussion cool2.gif
Well, I'm just re-iterating what I said in the past

This is very much a 'national interest' product; from many angles, so yes, chances are it will remain status quo for a while.
If you look at the total NAV of the FP funds, it's >10% of KLSE market cap... hence the national interest
As for the rakyat, better some savings at a higher return than nothing right....? world bank issued a report on how many Malaysians have no savings, but BNM rebutted that it has not taken ASB into consideration. That's how important ASB is to the nation

But yes, all in all, this is a crutches for both the rakyat and the market. It's probably appropriate 20-30 years back since it brings up savings and hold the market stable. But because of the crutches until today the rakyat cannot walk unassisted (aka invest their money and understand non-capital guaranteed products), the market cannot withstand the volatility

It is however a very personal choice, I don't think we can force people to change their mindset and take out their 6 digits savings from the FP funds that they have not touched over the last 20 years. All we can do is ride on the stability the institution investors provided and gain from it flex.gif
dasecret
post Sep 27 2016, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 27 2016, 03:49 PM)
user posted image

Dump all UTs...sell all shares...let's all shift to this thing... cry.gif
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Wah boss..... later the newbies don't understand your sarcasm

Post la your IRR as comparison icon_rolleyes.gif
dasecret
post Sep 27 2016, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 27 2016, 04:13 PM)
6.1 sen tu is DISTRIBUTION. How much is the TOTAL RETURN? I think I don't read it anywhere at the ASx thread. confused.gif

My IRR for portfolio started since 2008 (and changed face many times since then) is now at 6.9%.

IRR for a personal portfolio is NOT a good indicator of how good is the choice of funds in the portfolio.

Mr A and Mr B could have the SAME FUNDS in the SAME ALLOCATION %, but if
- they started at different times
- they invest/top up different funds at different times
- etc etc etc
they will have totally different IRRs.
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Aiya, no need so complicated la, for fixed priced funds distribution = annual returns la; although strictly speaking effective rate would be lower if capital was added during the year since the calculation of the dividend is based on some lowest amount of the month or something

Anyway, bean counter geeky talk below
The dividends declared is out of realised profits. The equities held by the fixed priced funds are not marked to market like EPF or Tabung Haji, although they do impairment on some of those really hopeless stocks like FGV acquired during IPO

So the "reserves" built up over the year from the increase in share price of the counters held may or may not be there anymore depending on how well the counters are doing. But you see, liquidity is not an issue since everytime someone sells the fund others would be queueing to pick it up regardless of it underlying asset value. What a perfect scheme
dasecret
post Sep 27 2016, 05:31 PM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Sep 27 2016, 05:17 PM)
That is building on your advanced knowledge of investment, also resulting from your active monitoring, restructuring of funds portfolio from time to time. Most importantly, you have the interest and passion to do it ---> active approach

A normal retiree, a housewife, or a layman on the street still take the easy way out for the ASx --> passive approach. 

Therefore, like someone said, both can co-exist.
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Actually unit trust is considered passive, active is those trading equities and derivatives directly
And why shouldn't retiree, housewives and layman learn about managing their own investments? In the 90s when shares boom they have no issue talking about which share to chase
And these days the taxi drivers and wet market vege sellers also property investment experts can talk this n that project.
Just because the crutch exists people won't want to learn how to walk without it. That, to me is the biggest problem in this country

QUOTE(pisces88 @ Sep 27 2016, 05:20 PM)
thank you.. anyone can do it, just a matter of 'when'. put your mind to it  icon_rolleyes.gif 
agree on this. definitely no luck when i enter UT in 2013.. bad timing  sweat.gif as pinky pointed out, if i enter 1 year earlier or 1 year later, the irr will be very different
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Erm.... why do you think it's timing issue? I also started in 2013... ok ma at the moment, of course you don't talk about feb'16, that time teruk la, IRR worse than FD board rate
dasecret
post Sep 28 2016, 07:07 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 28 2016, 06:49 PM)
Guys, sorry for disturbing again, few more questions.
1a) How come the value didn't come out?
1b) What amount is it showing?
user posted image

2a) I started with RM3k, how come it showed only RM1k?
2b) Any idea to update/fixit?
user posted image
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Data entry got problem. Are you willing to bare all then it's easier to troubleshoot, just expand all lines

Amount should be the current value of your fund, so the amount you got there is wrong. If you keyed in the FSM code of the fund, then you can use the radio button "update current fund" at the bottom and it would be automatically pull the unit price of the fund for you

For entrance value; you need to check that your grey subtotal lines are listed as 1 in column A
dasecret
post Sep 29 2016, 10:56 AM

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QUOTE(tmc @ Sep 29 2016, 10:37 AM)
Words of wisdom here, as it seems recently every fund is a good fund, just about when I feel I want to move out from KGF, it goes up and that makes the RHB Asian Income the least performing fund.
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RHB AIF is a balanced fund, it's only normal that when EQ is doing well the one with FI element would not do as well as the pure EQ funds, but it's a great stabiliser when market is volatile
dasecret
post Sep 29 2016, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(lukenn @ Dec 30 2015, 12:59 PM)
But for you benefit, in MYR, your correlation table would look like this over the last 3yrs.

[attachmentid=5655374]
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user posted image

QUOTE(AIYH @ Sep 29 2016, 02:19 PM)
How much does CIMB APDIF and RHB AIF overlap or correlate?

APDIF is pure equity while AIF is EQ:FI 7:3

As much overlap as KGF and EISCF?
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The table above is 9 months old, but I don't think it would be very different now; should still be in the range of 0.6-0.7

This post has been edited by dasecret: Sep 29 2016, 02:42 PM
dasecret
post Sep 29 2016, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Sep 29 2016, 02:59 PM)
My information is obtained from Morningstar Inc and the Corr-coeff value given is 0.87. This is highly correlated. Bad for your portfolio.


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0.87 is USD correlation? the one posted back in Dec'15 is in MYR terms and probably more relevant to us. We had this disccussion 2 versions back I think

Even GTF and AIF is considered highly correlated when I scan it using the Morningstar free account USD terms correlation
dasecret
post Sep 29 2016, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(yeowhock @ Sep 29 2016, 05:43 PM)
how did you generate the correlation table? i login into Morningstar -> created a portfolio -> X-ray, but the correlation table is not there am i looking at the correct section? confused.gif  confused.gif  confused.gif
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See the pdf document on top. The correlation table is inside the pdf document
Anyway this table not generated by me. The one from free Morningstar account is in USD terms and will show 0.8x
dasecret
post Oct 3 2016, 12:55 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Oct 2 2016, 07:44 PM)

My personal view:
1) If you buy at 10% cheaper, later when the price picks up, you will earn 10% more than your friend any time.
2) The higher the UT price moves up, the more you will win over your friend, by 11%,12%,13% etc. i  call it multiplying effect
even though you just bought 10% cheaper, you can win your friend by more than 10% at the end.

i dont read this from books or anywhere, just my personal experience. Practical vs theory?

The example given by yklooi is not exactly what i mean by buying 10% cheaper.

Common sense tells me, in his own example there yklooi is just buying only at 2.5% x 10% = 0.25% cheaper.
So how can you expect to win by 10% when you only buy at 0.25% cheaper??

Now you may wanna ask, buying at 10% cheaper than your friend, is there anything to your advantage when the market crash?

My view is yes, when market crashes , you would lose less compared to your friend.
If your friend loses 20%  you may lose only 11%, so you still "win" by 9%.
The more the market drops the lesser the percentage you "win" over your friends, ie by 8%, 7%, 6% etc..

Bottom line is : IF you buy cheaper, you CANNOT lose to someone who enter at higher  NAV than you.
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QUOTE(xuzen @ Oct 3 2016, 11:19 AM)
Less TALK; MOAR NUMB3RS!

Scenario A
Guy A transacted MYR 1,000.00 of Fund A at NAV RM 1.00: Units hold = 1,000 units

Guy B transacted MYR 1,000.00 of Fund A at NAV RM 0.90 (dropped 10%): Units hold = 1,111.11 units

After sometime, the NAV becomes RM 1.10 per unit

Guy A value = RM 1.10 x 1,000 units = RM 1,100.00

Guy B value = RM 1.10 x 1,111.11 units = RM 1,222.22

Guy B value is 11.11% more than Guy A. Guy B = Winner!

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Scenario B

Guy A transacted MYR 1,000.00 of Fund A at NAV RM 1.00: Units hold = 1,000 units

Guy B transacted MYR 1,000.00 of Fund A at NAV RM 0.90 (dropped 10%): Units hold = 1,111.11 units

After sometime, the NAV becomes RM 0.80 per unit

Guy A value = RM 0.80 x 1,000 units = RM 800.00

Guy B value = RM 0.80 x 1,111.11 units = RM 888..88

Guy B value is 11.11% more than Guy A. Guy B = Winner!

Either way, buying at lower NAV = winner in both scenario.

=====================================

The above is clear from a mathematical point of view, but opps we have a problem. In real life, we do not know when the NAV will go up, if goes up, until how high? If it goes down, until how low? if you want to wait and wait and wait to buy at the trough and sell at the peak, one word = GOOD LUCK!

That is why rational / logical / unemotional investing is to do DCA to take away the guess work and let average takes its course naturally.

Xuzen
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I'm responding to you not because I feel the need to argue with you, but I do not want this meaningless argument to take over this board and we are unable to move on to more meaningful discussion. Why do I say it's meaningless? Simple. You are only looking at investing into 1 single fund. Then of course your example is mathematically correct, there's no disputing that.

But wait, is our life ever so simplistic? At least mine is not

Here I'll give an example using our MY small cap market crash 1month+ ago. So uncle Looi bought into RHB Small Cap Opp right before it crashes (ouch, sorry, but it's a good comparison), and say you bought into it after the crash, so you are better off than uncle Looi by 10% like your example. And then here I am, buying into EI small cap instead, it only fell by 4%. So Am I worse off than you? Let the graph do the talking now

Attached Image

Everything else equal, uncle looi would still be -8%; while you are better off at +2%; and I'm at +3%. So are you the smartest of the bunch now? Actually I don't know the answer as it's less than 2 month; lets take a look again 6 months later then it would be more meaningful

But the truth is, would you be buying at the lowest point? Or somewhere when it's still falling, or only when it rose back to normal.... no one really knows. Not something we can have 100% control over.
Hence what we advocate to do is, control what you can; in this case - buy the fund that has a better risk to return ratio and have good track record; and VCA or DCA to not be in the worst situation, somewhere in between is good enough since we cannot catch the lowest point most of the time.

QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Oct 3 2016, 12:08 AM)
This kind of mathematical what-if discussion is not adding much value, simply because noone knows the future movement of the price. NAV fall by 10℅ and you buy in, thinking that you will do better than yklooi. He instead sold all and lost 10%.
What happens next noone knows. Let's say NAV drop another 20%, and you buy in again. Yklooi took his earlier cash and buy all now. Are you sure you're still better off than him in all circumstances? Are you really sure? Well, we haven't even considered how much % you topup in round1 and round2. See how this can be an endless discussion going nowhere?
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Don't be intimidated by the loudest voice in the room. Once a wise man told me that tin kosong make the most noise. You can always throw in idea and if you are right you help others, if you are not and being corrected you'd learn something. Don't just be a silent reader
dasecret
post Oct 3 2016, 05:45 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Oct 3 2016, 03:06 PM)
if my statement is wrong ,you think that can stand in a lions den  without being torn to pieces?

You are missing the point maam. Of course it is meaningless if you put me and yklooi to buy RHB and you go buy Eastspring wanna come and compare with us.......That sounds more like a tin kosong to me, Basics step - ask your self
first -are you comparable there!!
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Actually I did not, I even acknowledged that mathematically when you look at ONE fund what you argued is technically correct.

But instead of just looking at that one tiny sand, even though that one sand is pricking your eye and irritated you so much, I asked you to step back and look at the bigger picture.

Let me try again, and hopefully we can move on after this.

what I was trying to say is, say everyone has rm10k to put into 1 fund. Do you just buy into the fund that ur friend bought at a price that is 10% higher? Or do you consider other factors? Of course any sensible person will tell you they will consider other factors, to try to buy into a fund that they think got better chance of making more money in the future, and hopefully not lose so much in the process

So why are you still fixated about buying the fund that you can buy at a lower price? Fell 10% may not be as good as another fund that only fell 4% as I illustrated earlier. There are more than 1 fund or 1 counter to buy. Talking about just 1 fund is meaningless in the grand scheme of things

Ok. Let say if I want to be really nice about this. What you are trying to explain is what the fancy finance people call value cost averaging where investors are advised to buy more of the fund when the price fall below certain point (not due to distribution). And it's a more than acceptable way of investing. But the way you explained obviously did not make it easy for ppl to understand

QUOTE(xuzen @ Oct 3 2016, 04:26 PM)
After a couple of pages dedicated to the topic buying at Lower NAV pawns those who bought at higher NAV, so what usable info can we derive from this new and profound information?

How can we add value as investors to our portfolio?

Buy at lower NAV?

Xuzen
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Wah boss, the most meaningful comment the whole day
How do you deal with those who are stubborn to prove that they are right and would not look at things from a different perspective even when they were told to do so?

This post has been edited by dasecret: Oct 3 2016, 05:47 PM
dasecret
post Oct 4 2016, 05:50 PM

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QUOTE(voyage23 @ Oct 4 2016, 05:34 PM)
New investor here. I have Libra Asnita Bond in my portfolio, I am just wondering why whenever I talk to my UT agents friends and when I mentioned about my bond fund, they would say "no need to top up for bond wan la". But it was always touch n go conversation so didn't get to ask them. Why is that so?

I do regular DCA into my 4 other equity funds and this libra asnita fund.
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Let me guess, public mutual agents? PM bond funds returns lose to FD one... how to sell

Besides, bond fund close to zero commission

Once on cari chinese forum an agent tell me off, say it's a disservice to the clients to sell them bond fund because of the lacklustre returns. Ahem, the problem is why the bond fund return so little right? Not because your bond fund sucks so you ask client to take more risk than they are supposed/ready to



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