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 Fundsupermart.com v15, 基金超市第十五章 - Rise the Dragon

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dasecret
post Oct 5 2016, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Oct 4 2016, 07:18 PM)
Wah, like this also called 'heated debate'? Sing song, tok cok also can say heated debate meh?

Universal truth like buy cheap, buy at basement price bargains also need to have mathematical proof to show advantage over friend? So high class one the discussions... 3 days long weekend no go holiday or jam the malls?  laugh.gif

I top-up 2 weeks ago, so damn regret la... nav price drop 1% last Friday, should have waited till Friday.
If it drop again next 2-3 weeks another 8-9%, more regret la...  cry.gif

But ask me in 10 years time, what's the returns, hopefully I can boast "don't know la, maybe 110% or just above 120%... for sure more than 100."

In 10 years time, I would also forgot what's the NAV price I bought, and what's the 'rugi' I didn't buy at cheaper price. No luck... already buy, then price drop... buy somemore, price drop again.

Always no luck, so keep on buying...

Wait, dont' say no luck...  don't talk like newbie... be more 'veteran' - "I'm using DCA method".

biggrin.gif

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thumbsup.gif This is the most humorous post I've seen coming from you.... made my day thumbup.gif

QUOTE(xuzen @ Oct 4 2016, 09:16 PM)
Better than your Public Mutual Thread leh.... there only you kaki kong, kaki song!

Come here more often friend, here more tok kok, sing song wan! thumbsup.gif

Xuzen
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These days he post more over here than on his own thread. That thread only to troubleshoot for some random forumers only
dasecret
post Oct 6 2016, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Oct 6 2016, 11:50 AM)
IRR of 7.7% in a span of around 3 years old portfolio = OK lar. In line with some of the more conservative type balanced fund. Guy3288, I recalled you are a young person. If it is true, that is, my memory serves me right, you should bump up your IRR by including more equity fund. Show me again your total port and let me look at it again.

Xuzen
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Boss, I think he's almost 100% EQ on FSM. He is also vested in ASx fixed priced funds

Me la, my FI allocation is > my age blush.gif
dasecret
post Oct 7 2016, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Oct 7 2016, 01:28 PM)
to withdraw the funds anytime i want but nope. doesn't work that way. donno if I should just dump 3k into it every year but then again.... my as well just dump it into equities
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The key to the equation with PRS is the tax relief
How much tax relief would you get if you buy 3k PRS?
For the highest tax bracket fellas it's 24%*3k - that's RM720. Where to get this kind of returns wor; of course when you IRR it over 30 years it's not a lot; but the compounding effect of that 3k that you won't take out to avoid penalty would be a lot as well

Why is withdrawal element important to you? Do you not have RM3k in a year to not see again until retirement? If the fund does not perform you can switch. RM8 per switch is not that bad
dasecret
post Oct 11 2016, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(AIYH @ Oct 10 2016, 11:28 AM)
If I instead opt for APDIF + RHB EMBF, would it be a similar combo as RHB AIF standalone?
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No, RHB AIF also includes a significant portion of REITs; and EMBF is mainly government bonds including those outside of Asia Pac; RHB ATR would be a closer surrogate. But composition wise, the % of EQ:FI:REITs would be dynamic with RHB AIF and how are you going to mirror that?

QUOTE(puchongite @ Oct 10 2016, 04:36 PM)
I don't know what to call that for RHB AIF, since August 1, it has not been gaining much. That's been 2 months already, not two weeks.
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I've highlighted this before; when EQ is doing well, AIF will lag behind due to its FI and REITs elements. But it's a great stabiliser with a rather low volatility which is great during turbulent times. So the question is, why do you buy into this fund? Just because crystal ball say so?

QUOTE(puchongite @ Oct 10 2016, 08:02 PM)
Look at these graphs please :-

[attachmentid=7732735]

[attachmentid=7732739]

These graphs show the shape of Cimb Ponzi 2.0 has insignificant impact to rhb aif. The graph of rhb aif always follows the shape of rhb atr. Eg, lately when Ponzi 2.0 goes up shapely, and rhb aif still goes down to follow the down trend of rhb atr ( graph 1).

If the equity portion of rhb aif is the same composition as Ponzi 2.0, then I would say that equity portion is insignificantly small. So  small until negligible.
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Good attempt to analyse the movements. But do look into 1 year and 2 years chart then you would understand why Xuzen decided to go into AIF early this year; he was contemplating between ATR and AIF and clearly AIF is a better choice given its lower volatility and higher risk adjusted returns. All these funds are not identical and would perform differently in different market situations

Attached Image
dasecret
post Oct 11 2016, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(DearWJ @ Oct 9 2016, 10:16 PM)
Newbie here! Been read through V14 till here, thanks everybody for the disscussion and sharing! Learn a lot here! Just calculated my IRR with the excel format provided in the front page.

negative for my eastspring smallcap and kenanga growth T^T
although ROI are positive......
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QUOTE(adele123 @ Oct 10 2016, 08:58 AM)
You sure you did it correctly? I don't think it is mathematically possible.
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Although in this case the negative IRR was due to key in error; it was previously discussed that it is mathematically possible to have a positive ROI and negative IRR.

I've personally experienced it and it was due to a rather big negative IRR from a recent purchase and a small IRR from CMF, but ROI wise it's positive because I kept the money in CMF while waiting to RSP into funds. At the moment that portfolio of 1 year old still has an IRR of 2.2% and ROI of 5.4% although if I look at CAGR it's actually closer to 5.4%

Not sure if this makes sense to you; it's mathematically correct although I'd disregard IRR and focus on ROI in this instance

Oh, it's possible to have it in the reverse situation too - +IRR and -ROI
Again due to averaging effects of IRR where some transactions made significantly more but is more recent
My GTF position is having IFF 0.74% IRR and -0.66% ROI

This post has been edited by dasecret: Oct 11 2016, 10:36 AM
dasecret
post Oct 11 2016, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(AIYH @ Oct 11 2016, 10:43 AM)
Trying to understand, when we talk about better risk adjusted returns, does it apply to only one lump sum investment or including regular top up?

Because from what I understand, AIF will be a better choice if you just invest once (or top up less frequent and have a peace of mind) since it fluctuate less, less likely prone to "timing market emotion" and less prone to heart attack  smile.gif

If for people who do regular top up/RSP to take advantage of the APDIF volatility, does the better risk adjusted returns still applies?

I admit my mistake that when I started my portfolio, I added AIF under xuzen recommendation without realizing the similarity between them, so I plan to remove it and replace it with EMBF to enter non-asian market instead of continuing in within asian region  smile.gif

But come to think about it, would you recommend to go for EI GEM (but worrying about the heavy weight in greater china equity since I already have CIMB APDIF, GTF and CIIEF) or RHBEMBF to diverse more on different emerging market continent government bond? smile.gif
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It would apply to both really, when it comes to foreign balanced fund the price still does not move only up unlike local bond funds, what it means is just that you may not see a monthly -5% or -10% returns very often (and also the reverse). So it depends on what you want. If you want to gamble ala buy low sell high, AIF is not for you; if you want lumpsum/RSP and have a reasonable amount of FI portfolio it'll be quite ideal

I dislike EI GEM very much. The allocation is very heavy to asia pac and the returns pale in comparison to APDI and other asia pac funds. Would certainly discourage that move. To be honest, I don't see the potential of EMs outside of Asia pac doing well. EM bond is in a better position due to their exposure in gov securities which is less risky than ATR's corporate bonds. Other than that I don't see a reason to buy into the region


dasecret
post Oct 11 2016, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(AIYH @ Oct 11 2016, 11:34 AM)

No love for potential growth from latin america and african emerging market?  laugh.gif
Having a lot in asia pac in my portfolio dy,  plus no good equity fund for the above region, and EBMF vs ATR performed similarly too, so will go for EMBF  smile.gif

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Actually it's not because the region has no potential, but the Msia funds in these region are less than ideal. Another example would be our exposure in developed markets, the best ones are GTF and Aberdeen world, but they are not that great as well

What about increasing exposure in MY EQ? With general election coming there's a good chance the market would boom (before kaboom rclxs0.gif )
dasecret
post Oct 11 2016, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(AIYH @ Oct 11 2016, 01:43 PM)
Not sure sarcasm or not, but there are 4 funds which have varying degree of allocation on the aforementioned market.

TA BRIC and Emerging Markets Fund
Eastspring Investments Global Emerging Markets Fund
Global Emerging Markets Opportunities
RHB Emerging Markets Bond Fund 
I only started to work and have the income to invest starting less than a quarter eh  laugh.gif

Forgive me  laugh.gif
But that's the sort of better option for us to have exposure on that market (unless if you invest stock or mutual funds on those region elsewhere then is another story  laugh.gif )

Already got KGF, EISCF, Ponzi 1, AmReits and Ponzi 2 covering Malaysia

Somemore having Anita Mui as cash reserve, not heavy enough?  laugh.gif
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It depends on your intended allocation lor. Those MY exposure within asia pac funds are negligible
Some argue home ground advantage ma. No doubt the local fund managers r good at beating the index and delivering consistent performance.

But crystal ball thinks otherwise. so it depends on what you believe lor

QUOTE(puchongite @ Oct 11 2016, 02:25 PM)
Just got onto EIGEMF recently and it's one of the top performer. Historically this GEM market is non-performer, however, there seem to be a revised view on it recently.
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Question - what is the timeframe are you looking at exactly?
dasecret
post Oct 13 2016, 03:26 PM

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QUOTE(DearWJ @ Oct 13 2016, 02:31 PM)
Yesterday Asian Market dropped kaw kaw but Ponzi 2 still rose about 1.35%

So today still up up and up? @@
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QUOTE(DearWJ @ Oct 13 2016, 02:40 PM)
Is it? I checked the NAV just now, it's 0.3112 on tuesday, yesterday Asian Market got into red but it rose to 0.3154. What a great pump up huh?

and i topped up yesterday  cry.gif
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Something to remember when you try to time the market - For foreign funds forex plays an important role on top of the ups and downs in various equity markets
In fact forex would have more certainty in predicting if the fund would go up/down than the market indexes because the fund may or may not invest in the indexed stocks and the weightage in each top holding and market is also dynamic. The only information you have is fact sheet which is at least 1 month old

My simple solution to that is, I don't try to time the market, because I suck at it

QUOTE(AIYH @ Oct 13 2016, 03:11 PM)
How do we actually evaluate the performance for the same fund with different currencies?

Say, Ponzi 2.0 are available in 3 currencies format: MYR for Malaysia and SGD & USD for Singapore

1st one is MYR, 2nd one is SGD, 3rd one is USD

I know is not that simple, but wouldnt it shows that if you invest in USD you will gain more after currency exchange?

Say if you invest both different classes at 1000USD and 1000SGD respectively, after 1 year, based on the performance figure, USD to SGD exchange rate didnt fluctuate much, USD classes earn more than SGD classes? hmm.gif
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Hmm, the answer to this question is rather complex

Each class would be translated to its denominated currency on daily basis

So although the exchange rate for 13/10/15 and 13/10/16 for USD:SGD is identical, in between there were lots of fluctuations and the transactions took place during the year would be affected by those fluctuations

The only instance where it would be exactly the same would be during the RM pegging of USD at 3.8 because there were no forex movement in the whole year.

Hope that makes sense
Anyway, is this an important consideration? The SGD and USD class as I understand is to be distributed by CIMB in other Asean countries instead of Malaysia. If you invest in the MYR class just focus on the MYR performance lor
dasecret
post Oct 13 2016, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(kimyee73 @ Oct 13 2016, 03:27 PM)
They actually calculate IRR quarterly for Platinum investors. The calculation routine should be there already, so need to incorporate it to their website.
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Now we know who has platinum status notworthy.gif
And I have to say this, your % of holdings in gold & general times with 750k mega_shok.gif

QUOTE(AIYH @ Oct 13 2016, 03:36 PM)
Not making decision, just thinking that for such a foreign funds, if forex rate do play a role in it, wouldnt understand the stability/volatility of a certain currency or the denominated currency of the holdings part of the consideration in deciding which denominated currency of the fund we should go for even though they are all the same fund manager?

Secondly, I have heard quite some people saying that Malaysia currency is weakening, better invest outside the country for investment opportunity. I am wondering if we invest these domestic and foreign instruments in different currency, how do we actually understand or decide which part of our investment has a performance if the picture I posted previously consisted of different funds from different fund managers from different countries?
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Well, last time lukenn always post graphs with forex to show how much of the gains came from forex

A good place to do that is bloomberg as you can plot the feeder fund, the source fund and the forex in one chart

To be honest, I think you missed the boat if you want to ride on the forex gain. Do you think we will hit USD1:RM5 anytime soon? If it's just 4.4, the gain would be rather minimal
dasecret
post Oct 14 2016, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(kimyee73 @ Oct 13 2016, 10:39 PM)
Don't simply jump to conclusion and I don't hold RHB gold and general  bruce.gif
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oops sorry boss.... am precious metal that is... laugh.gif
dasecret
post Oct 14 2016, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 14 2016, 08:47 AM)
Guys, please help with filling up this excel.
user posted image

The units are not showing. Did I do something wrong?
AIYH Ponzi 2 increase on Oct 12  blink.gif  sad.gif but TA Global and REITS decrease  rclxms.gif So looks like Asia Pacific drop doesn't really play well with Ponzi 2  sad.gif
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you need to manually key in the units in transaction amount; the guidance is at the transaction amount cell if you hover around it
Attached Image

And delete the units from the manual adjustment column

QUOTE(puchongite @ Oct 14 2016, 09:43 AM)
Date: 11 Oct
=========
RHB ATR F  +0.20
Ponzi 2.0      +1.35
RHB AIF      -0.17
If  (x%)Ponzi 2.0 + (y%)RHB ATR = RHB AIF, how is this even possible ?  shakehead.gif
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Your formula is based on the assumption that the 3 funds invest in the same stocks/bonds/markets in identical proportion which is clearly not the case
dasecret
post Oct 14 2016, 10:15 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Oct 14 2016, 10:01 AM)
But that's what I was told by some sifus here wor. Do I have to requote what he said ?  blink.gif
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That's just a general idea since all 3 funds invests in the asiapac ex jap market; 1 in equity, 1 in FI and 1 balanced
But if you apply that formula xyz for 1 day, it won't work because they are not investing in the exact same stocks/bonds in the exact same proportion

However, on a 3 year returns basis you may find that it's quite close due to all the averaging effect. But that also depends on power of the respective fund manager. Investing is not so black and white and mathematical la

QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 14 2016, 10:02 AM)
Sales charge 0% or 1% (I still have the new customer benefit)?
NAV = 10/10/2016 NAV?

Same thing during dividends right?
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for the unit split? 0% la, takkan gotta pay sales charge for distribution pulak tongue.gif
The NAV u can just put whatever number, if you look at the calculation it has zero effect as unit split/distribution only increase units held and not investment cost
dasecret
post Oct 14 2016, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Oct 14 2016, 10:24 AM)
No, the point I want to say hoping to use RHB AIF as a replacement for Ponzi 2.0 + RHB ATR is a futile effort, it is not anyway near. There is no way for it. It like comparing apple+orange = durian.

On a >3 year return basis, actually RHB AIF = RHB ATR, we can just forget about the equity portion of RHB AIF.
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Sounds like I didn't quite get your point here

So what's the conclusion after you discover all these? What is your choice of fund and why?
dasecret
post Oct 14 2016, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(AIYH @ Oct 14 2016, 10:53 AM)
According to the latest semi annual report for Schroder Asian Income (RHB AIF Target Fund), the EQ:FI portion is roughly 6:4

Schroder Asian Income Semi Annual Report 20160630

Use that as a benchmark, we similarly create Ponzi 2.0 60% and RHB ATR 40%, and no rebalancing.

Portfolio 1 is combo Ponzi 2.0 and ATR
Portfolio 2 is AIF.

Here is the 3 year result. (as AIF is only 4 years old  tongue.gif )

p/s: just a illustration smile.gif
My comment: the combo's incremental volatility is higher than the combo's incremental return in percentage of incremental smile.gif Therefore the combo is not better in risk adjusted return smile.gif

Is this how you evaluate? xuzen, learning process  tongue.gif  laugh.gif
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rclxms.gif Great effort!

Now, if you look closer, you would notice that when equity is not doing well early this year, the gap narrowed which means AIF tends to be more resilient and that's where lower volatility comes in.

At the end of the day it depends on what you want, APDI made close to 20% in the last 6 months and that's something that AIF would never be able to do. But when all the EQ funds kaputed early this year, my AIF IRR maintained at around 7%

dasecret
post Oct 15 2016, 12:06 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 14 2016, 07:47 PM)
I have a few queations regarding RHB ATRF
(i) can the return be (-)/at FD board rate after holding say 1 year?
(ii) can it give min 7% or it will be less? (I am using rhb islamic bond fund as a benchmark for stable yearly returns)
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Yet another auntie advice, learn the basics of unit trust. Don't just look at returns. Volatility is important. Underlying assets is important. Market outlook shd not be ignored. It's not as simple as comparing returns to FD n ASx returns

Now what I will do is I will give you the answer. But the reason you need to figure out by reading up past discussions about ATR n RHB Islamic bond

Bad idea to buy ATR if you want stable returns. ATR is anything but consistent. It's consistent with USD:RM forex rates

RHB Islamic bonds may not be able to return 7% consistently as well. It has some bond default in the past n is seem as more risky bond fund than say asnita and EI bonds or PM bond funds. But those bond funds don't give u 7% in a normal year. This year is not a normal year for MY bond

dasecret
post Oct 19 2016, 01:46 PM

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QUOTE(frankzane @ Oct 19 2016, 01:39 PM)
Thanks for all the answers. I shall start investing in FSM then. rclxms.gif

One more thing, can I invest in Public Mutual via FSM when I already have my PMO? If yes, what are the difference between them?
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Nope, Public Mutual funds are only distributed by their exclusive agents. Not distributed by IUTA and CUTA as far as I know

Difference of PMO and FSM?
Sales charge - 5.25% vs 2% or lower
Choice of funds - limited to PM funds vs a wide range of funds across different asset management companies and switching enabled between different asset management companies as well (some subject to charges)
User friendliness of the website - I don't know about you, I find fundsupermart much better with wide range of articles and research reports, charting tools and simulators
Fund returns - This one very hard to compare la, have to compare those from the same range etc. But when I sort morningstar results by 5 years annualised returns, PM funds hardly even show up on the first page or top 20...

Is that enough reasons for you to consider FSM?
dasecret
post Oct 19 2016, 03:11 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Oct 19 2016, 03:03 PM)
FSM CMF vs Phillip Master Money Market Fund (PMMMF)

the thing i like about PMMMF is T+0 same day redemption while FSM CMF is T+3.
anything i overlook?


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I don't use eUnitTrust and too lazy to check - What's the current indicative interest rate for PMMMF?

FSM CMF is T+2

I also liked the fact that redemption they will bank in for me instead of sending me a cheque which would mean >T+2 effectively.

But just like the debate between Maybank eGIA vs CMF; the differential usually is very small. 0.2% per annum difference works out to be RM200 difference for RM100,000 per year. And who put large amounts in CMF or MMF for a year right?

Trivial matter.... not worth comparing

On the other hand, it is a lot more meaningful to compare EI small cap fund vs RHB SCOT vs CIMB small cap vs Public small cap because the difference in returns is huge, can be more than 10% per annum
dasecret
post Oct 19 2016, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 19 2016, 03:15 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

In my opinion, eunittrust is only good for those 0% service charge promos which FSM doesn't have.  thumbup.gif
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Ada free credit ninja or not for inter fundhouse switching?

But at the end of the day, the website is such a major turn off to me that even 0% sales charge also I won't go for it. Macam built by some teenagers and never upgrade for the past 5 years
dasecret
post Oct 19 2016, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Oct 19 2016, 03:25 PM)
they advertise on thier main page its 3.5%.

dont know how it works as its not NAV based.
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Indicative interest rate is forward looking which would be comparable to savings acc or FD etc. The past performance is not as meaningful in the case of MMF. Any interest rate adjustments would impact the future returns significantly

QUOTE(AIYH @ Oct 19 2016, 03:26 PM)
If all insist to compare (hope I will not bombarded after this  laugh.gif ) but this is the 5 year chart.

Orange = Philip Master Money Market Fund

Blue = RHB Cash Management Fund 2
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Well done!

Actually if we still want to dwell into this. eGIA is more superior la. Liquidity and returns both win

But, keep your eyes on what matters... the EQ and FI funds... not MMF

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