Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

25 Pages « < 17 18 19 20 21 > » Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

views
     
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 7 2020, 11:37 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(eddie2020 @ Dec 7 2020, 11:22 PM)
ibkr cant trade.. wanna take profit but cant..so can just watch my profit up n down.. lol

usa also got goreng goreng..
Fate Therapeutics Inc (FATE) up 20usd lol
*
Didn't FATE have good data for one of their clinical trials?

Market was quite slow to react to the news and it was similar for another Biotech: Editas Medicine (EDIT)

Quite rare for biotech stocks to do that without news about trials usually.
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 8 2020, 06:51 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(solstice818 @ Dec 8 2020, 12:24 PM)
Can I know where can i get these information?

Thank you.
*
Ziet posted the right link


For the future you can check out the SEC link below
They have improved their search tool so easier to find filings.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#/category=custom&forms=S-1
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 8 2020, 11:23 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
Took them long enough....

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/weve-reache...-executive.html

We’ve reached a ‘turning point’ on the electrification of vehicles, Nissan executive says
QUOTE
A “turning point” has been reached when it comes to the electrification of vehicles, according to the chief operating officer of Nissan, with the Japanese automotive giant “ready to address that opportunity everywhere in the world.”

Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday, Ashwani Gupta explained the shift to electric vehicles had been driven by customers and enabled by infrastructure and government support.

The rise in the number of electric vehicles used by consumers has indeed been quite rapid over the past decade. According to figures from the International Energy Agency, globally, there were around 17,000 electric cars on the road in 2010. Last year, that figure had risen to 7.2 million, with 47% of these located in China. 

The U.K., for example, has announced plans to stop selling new diesel and petrol (gasoline) cars and vans from 2030. Elsewhere, Denmark has proposed a phase-out of new diesel and petrol car sales in 2030 while Norway wants all new light vans and passenger cars sold to be zero emission by the year 2025.

“We do believe that moving forward, with the support, with the infrastructure … electrification will be highly valued by the customer,” Gupta added, stating that Nissan was “prepared” for the U.K.’s 2030 roadmap.
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 11 2020, 12:24 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 11 2020, 12:12 AM)
Man... i have a really bad feeling about trump and his supporters.

Will he go down in history as the president that starts the second us civil war ? Seemed like things are simmering just below the surface now
*
Lets see what happens next week first.

If they get through the Electoral College Vote then chances of anything happening are lower.
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 12 2020, 07:45 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
Supreme Court Rejects Trump Bid to Overturn Election Results

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...s?sref=yYYRek8e

QUOTE
The U.S. Supreme Court rejected the bid by Texas and President Donald Trump to nullify the election results in four pivotal states in an abrupt order that could be the legal gravestone for his drive to overturn President-elect Joe Biden’s victory.

The justices refused to let Texas file a lawsuit to challenge Biden’s wins in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin. The order clears those states to cast their votes for Biden in the Electoral College Monday.

“Texas has not demonstrated a judicially cognizable interest in the manner in which another State conducts its elections,” the court said in a two-paragraph order.

zacknistelrooy
post Dec 12 2020, 10:28 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 12 2020, 02:44 PM)
After considering, i think structurally US is sound. Planning to take opportunity on the weakness due to risk leading up to inauguration to add more position

I hope it will be another non event like the november presidential election and market pop again once the dust settle.
*
January might still be a problem not for the stock market largely but overall economy.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...rent-utilities/
Millions of Americans are heading into the holidays unemployed and over $5,000 behind on rent

QUOTE
Amid those pressures, renters and landlords are urging Congress to approve bigger unemployment payments and another round of $1,200 stimulus checks, which would go a long way toward helping alleviate the debt burden on the unemployed. Many families say they fell behind on bills this fall after the extra $600-a-week unemployment payments ended in late July.

“The longer employment stays suppressed, and people stay out of work, it will make it even harder to catch up on the debt and dig yourself out of that hole,” said Davin Reed, community development economic adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
user posted image
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 13 2020, 07:41 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(Raymond_ACCA @ Dec 12 2020, 12:22 AM)
BITW etf listed today. Top 10 crypto holdings. Interesting..
*
The premium is too much even for this one.

Similar thing to GBTC and the VanEck.

user posted image


Certain funds may need meet their compliance and that is all good but unless these premiums come down, then in my opinion for retail traders buying bitcoin and other crypto directly is a better option.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Dec 13 2020, 07:43 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 14 2020, 11:18 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(theozis @ Dec 13 2020, 04:43 PM)
I bought GBTC directly from OTC and there is no charge wor
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBTC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BCHG/
*
Not sure about what you meant by charge but the expense ratio is around 2% also for GBTC.

You won't see that charge but it deducted from the NAV usually.

Plus the premium below just makes me uncomfortable to buy it this way.

user posted image


zacknistelrooy
post Dec 15 2020, 07:53 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
‘The Best Year Ever’: 2020 Was Surprisingly Good to Small Banks
A large share of government relief for businesses and consumers ended up at community banks, boosting deposits and loans

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-best-year-...rkets_lead_pos5

QUOTE
Yet those ties to local companies worked to their advantage. Small banks made about 28% of PPP loans, despite holding about 12% of industry assets at the end of last year, according to FDIC data. These “economic first responders” helped quickly deploy hundreds of billions of dollars in forgivable loans, FDIC Chairman Jelena McWilliams said earlier this month during an online conference.

PPP brought new customers and their deposits to many small lenders that had struggled to attract both pre-pandemic. Lenders also earn a fee of between 1% and 5% on each loan.

That income is helping to offset tight margins in their core lending businesses. Net interest margin, the difference between what a bank earns on loans and what it pays to depositors, fell to record lows for commercial banks in the third quarter.

Rosedale issued more than 500 PPP loans worth more than $50 million, all to new small-business clients, Mr. Benson said. He expects Rosedale to bring in roughly $1.7 million in fee income from PPP, more than double its noninterest income of $730,000 in 2019.


user posted image
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 15 2020, 10:45 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(tkwfriend @ Dec 15 2020, 08:17 AM)
we did a study on 1 small bank call ozk bank, a summary good profit from the loan sector, low in bad debt, especially like now low-interest rate, i enter at 21++, currently at 30, will long it closer to 40. price may drop below 30.

i did an option  sell put at that time for 22.50,
*
Hope it works out for you all.

Don't really invest in banks except for LOB since they were benefiting from the government stimulus and their own tech initiatives.

Will sell it if there isn't another stimulus that is agreed since small businesses really need help and the risk of holding a small bank trading at tech valuation isn't worth it for me.

user posted image
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 17 2020, 09:28 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(tkh_1001 @ Dec 17 2020, 07:00 AM)
Btw guys, anyone ever used old chart and made calculation of dollar cost average vs savings entry during crash? (Say if you saved all the money you didnt cost average). Or if anyone knows of any tool to calculate this.

Let say we used spy500
*
user posted image
*


More info at the links below:

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-cost-of-waiting/

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-could...cost-averaging/



This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Dec 17 2020, 07:06 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 17 2020, 07:08 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
US bankruptcies surpass 600 in 2020 as coronavirus-era filings keep climbing

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence...imbing-61734090

user posted image

No big spike still for now.
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 18 2020, 11:02 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(silverwave @ Dec 18 2020, 10:49 PM)
For US stocks, which website is the best to check analyst target price for a stock?
*
https://www.marketbeat.com/ratings/us/

https://www.tipranks.com/
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 19 2020, 12:14 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 18 2020, 11:57 PM)
Got some BABA among this red sea. Guess stimulus also priced in now.

Basically a skinny bill is not to wallstreet liking.
*
Even for the skinny deal they are still having issues and creating more drama.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/c...-looms-n1251694
zacknistelrooy
post Dec 19 2020, 07:14 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 19 2020, 02:39 PM)
Yes more drama it is. What are the odds they defy expectations and come out with a 1.2k direct payment. That would be good for all those gold bugs and btc
*
Unlikely to increase the direct payments unless the markets goes down.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/18/ro...ks-twice-448504
QUOTE
“When I first got here, I ran because we were mortgaging our kids’ future,” hen said. “I’m not heartless. I want to help people. I voted to help people. I voted for the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, but I also am concerned about our children’s future.”

Suddenly now they care about deficits...

zacknistelrooy
post Dec 31 2020, 07:45 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
Future of luxury: A look at the year ahead

https://www.ft.com/content/d3dd2ba8-6df0-4d...55-25ec246bdbc0

user posted image

QUOTE
The US luxury consumer also proved surprisingly resilient. With stock indices reaching record highs and fewer opportunities to spend on international travel, restaurants and spas, the wealthy snapped up luxury handbags, fine jewellery and cashmere tracksuits.

Luxury executives also responded quickly and ably during the first wave of infections, says Chauvet: slashing marketing and events budgets, renegotiating rents and, among the publicly listed companies, reducing the dividends they had planned to pay to investors.

One thing that won’t go away this year? Logos. “In previous crises, logos were a no-no, it was inappropriate,” observes Erwan Rambourg, a luxury analyst and author of Future Luxe: What’s Ahead for the Business of Luxury. “Right now, even with high unemployment, it is the iconic, recognisable products that are outperforming versus pre-Covid. There is no guilt factor — it’s more of a ‘I’ve survived this, it’s ok to reward myself, I’m worth it’.”



zacknistelrooy
post Jan 2 2021, 12:07 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(propertyfeature @ Jan 1 2021, 09:58 PM)
oh dear, guess I went in too early..
Anyhow, will be here for the long haul. Good thing Biden will take over the presidential white house soon,
replacing anti-China Donald Trump lol - should be more positive for any Chinese related stocks
*
The Foreign Company Accountability Act was passed with Unanimous Consent.

That isn't bipartisan enough?
zacknistelrooy
post Jan 2 2021, 08:55 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jan 2 2021, 12:53 AM)
Baba should be able to comply with the act requirement. In the long run it might also be good for market confidence towards china enterprise and prevent luckin coffee incidient from happening again.

But still the delisting news sure will create neagtive sentiment that is for sure.
*
Yes and if they are able to comply then more capital will be allocated towards them but for me personally I gave up on them few months ago as market participants refuse to reward them for their various investments holdings and strong fundamentals.

Personal choice but I prefer to invest in companies that have stable or expanding multiples instead of the other way around.

user posted image

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Jan 2 2021, 08:55 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Jan 3 2021, 10:06 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
Why Markets Boomed in a Year of Human Misery

It wasn’t just the Fed or the stimulus. The rise in savings among white-collar workers created a tide lifting nearly all financial assets.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/upshot/w...oomed-2020.html

QUOTE
The first important observation: Salaries and wages fell less, in the aggregate, than even a careful observer of the economy might think. Total employee compensation was down only 0.5 percent for those nine months, more akin to a mild recession than an economic catastrophe.

That might seem impossible. Large swaths of the economy have been shut down; millions are out of work. The number of jobs employers reported having on their payrolls was down 6.1 percent in November compared with a year earlier, according to separate Labor Department data.

So how can the number of jobs be down 6 percent but employee compensation be down only 0.5 percent? It has to do with which jobs have been lost. The millions of people no longer working because of the pandemic were disproportionately in lower-paying service jobs. Higher-paying professional jobs were more likely to be unaffected, and a handful of other sectors have been booming, such as warehousing and grocery stores, leading to higher incomes for those workers.

The arithmetic is as simple as it is disorienting. If a corporate executive gets a $100,000 bonus for steering a company through a difficult year, while four $25,000-per-year restaurant workers lose their jobs entirely, the net effect on total compensation is zero — even though in human terms a great deal of pain has been incurred.

So wages, salaries and other forms of workers’ compensation dropped only a little — $43 billion over the nine months — despite mass unemployment. But there is more to the story.


user posted imageuser posted image

user posted image
zacknistelrooy
post Jan 29 2021, 09:14 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,033 posts

Joined: Dec 2009
Long explanation on the broker situation for anyone interested.

Does anyone here want a repeat of LTCM or MFGlobal?

TLDR: system is old and and a lot reforms are needed for a fairer and free system for all


Source:https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1354952686165225478

QUOTE
Ok - here's my best explanation of why @RobinhoodApp restricted trading in the short-squeeze stocks.

Spoiler: the story isn't the Ken Griffen called Janet Yellen who instructed DTCC to raise margin on Robinhood to force them to shut down the speculative buying.
Here goes ...Robinhood (RH) is a broker. They don't execute stock orders themselves. They sign up customers, route their orders to executing brokers, and keep track of who owns what. RH is also its own clearing broker, so they directly settle and custody their clients' securities.

Yes, RH is paid by Citadel to handle executing some of its order flow. This isn't as nefarious as it sounds - Citadel Equity Securities is paying to execute retail orders because they aren't pernicious (like having 500x the size behind them).

RH customers buy and sell stocks. Those trades don't settle (settle = closing, the exchange of cash for security) until T+2, two days later. Depending on the net of buys/sells, RH is on the hook to pay or recieve that net cash. That's credit risk.

NSCC is the entity that takes that credit risk. It matches up the net buyers and sellers, post-trade, and handles the exchange of cash for security. To mitigate the credit risk that one of the clearing brokers fails, they demand the brokers post a clearing deposit with them.

The NSCC is required to do this by SEC rule, tracing to Dodd-Frank.
Here's the details:  https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc-an/2018/34-82631.pdf

Everyone posts, and if a broker fails, then NSCC takes any losses out of that broker's deposit, then some from NSCC, then from everyone else (the other brokers).
This is a post-crisis idea encoded in Dodd-Frank that making everyone post collateral reduces the credit risk and systemic risk and such.

So how does the NSCC clearing deposit get calculated?

It's basically Deposit = min( 99% 2d VaR + Gap Risk Measure, Deposit Floor Calc) + Mark-to-Market ... math and jargon!

Let's use an example. Say Fidelity has clients who bought 2bn of stock and sold 1.5bn of stocks. First, net down buy/sell between customers in the same stock.

Say that leaves 1bn buy and 0.5bn sell. Run some math to answer "that won't move more than X with 99% odds in the next 2 days." Let's say that's 3% of the net, so 3% * (1bn-0.5bn) = 0.15bn = 15m. That the 99% 2d VaR.

Next, we ask "is any one stock net more than 30% of the net buy/sell" ... and if it is, then we take 10% of that amount and add it as the Gap Risk Measure. So if Fidelity customers bought 200m IBM, then add 20m to that 15m. That's Gap Risk Measure.

Deposit Floor Calc is some thing that looks at the 1bn buy and the 0.5bn sell and does a small calc and adds them, so that if the first calc (99% 2d VaR + Gap Risk Measure) is small, then this floor will keep the overall from being tiny.

Then, last, you add Mark-to-Market. Basically if your customers bought IBM at 140/shr and it goes to 110/shr before it settles for cash at 140/shr, the NSCC has 30/shr of credit exposure to the clearing broker and that amount gets added to the required collateral posted to NSCC.

There are some other items, but that's the basic idea - full details are here:  https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Download...e_Framework.pdf …The NSCC sets the framework, but it is spelled out in Dodd-Frank that they have to do so by law.

These deposits are held in the Clearing Fund at the NSCC.
Financials are here:  https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Download...e_Framework.pdf

They had 10.5bn in the Clearing Fund as of Sep 30, 2020.This is the regime post-Dodd-Frank. NSCC updated it's rules in 2018 to improve the VaR calc and to add the Gap Risk Measure.

How did this impact Robinhood?

Well, let's say Robinhood had $20bn of client assets starting 2021. Those customers used to trade $1bn/d say. What is the context for Clearing Deposit? Say 2 days it's a little unbalanced and it's 1.2bn buy and 0.8bn sell. Ok, that's probably around 12m, maybe 20m deposit.

If they take in $600m of new deposits and say $400m wants to buy GME. Plus of their $20bn existing, say there is $400m of GME buys over the past 2d. Then the picture could look like 2.0bn buys and 1.0bn sells, which might normally be 30m deposit. But volatility went up. A bit.

Now 99% 2d VaR is much higher. It should be 20x higher for their net portfolio, but the formula will smooth it out some. Maybe it's ~4x bigger. So just on VaR, they have to post 120m now. That they should have.The Gap Risk Measure is what kills them.

If GME is over 30% of their net unsettled portfolio, then they are required to post 10% of all the GME buys. So if that's 800m, they have to post another 80m. And there is no limit to it. As long as their clients are up P&L, the mark-to-market covers it.

But if RH takes in 500m of new money and 300m buys GME, then at minimum they are looking at posting 30m+ from just that exposure at NSCC. They cannot use client money - RH has to use their own resources to post. And if GME stock drops, RH has to post the loss pre-settlement.

This would also explain why RH drew its credit lines and said vague things about clearing requirements. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...t?sref=rY0z5sRB

The policy goal here is to avoid the central plumbing entities from taking credit risk. In reality, such regulations raise costs and create barriers to entry. It raises profits for entities like DTCC (which owns NSCC and is itself owned by Wall St)

RH offered to open up stock market investing more broadly. They succeeded, clearly. But the regulations didn't change - there are still pro-Wall St, pro-incumbent rules and capital requirements. It's one of the most highly regulated industries in our nation.

So @aoc is right to ask how it can be that Robinhood stopped its clients from buying certain securities. And what she'll find is that the reason is that Dodd-Frank requires brokers like RH to post collateral to cover their clients' trading risk pre-settlement.

And it isn't the Fed or SEC who sets the rules. It's the Wall St owned central clearing entity itself, DTCC, that makes its own rules. So when the retail masses decided to squeeze the short-sellers, in the middle of crushing them, it was govt regulations which tripped them up.



25 Pages « < 17 18 19 20 21 > » Top
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.3792sec    0.62    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 4th December 2025 - 09:22 AM