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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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zacknistelrooy
post Sep 18 2020, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 18 2020, 11:07 PM)
Omg this is big. Wechat will be ban from apple and google app store. Wtf trump ?

Seemed for now its only for US. Lets hope its not a blanket ban like those on huawei.
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Just more drama from the King of drama

After election suddenly everything will be quiet or if the market sells off then just see them back track
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 18 2020, 11:34 PM

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For anyone interested in US economy snapshot

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/med...r2020.pdf?la=en

QUOTE
Overview of the September 2020 Snapshot

Consumer spending continued to recover in July. Spending remained tilted toward goods and away from services compared to pre-pandemic levels. Services expenditures were still significantly below their February level. Consumer confidence remained low in August.
Real business equipment spending plunged in 2020Q2, reflecting disruptions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. Shipments of nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft rebounded further in July, and new orders were modestly above shipments, suggesting some near-term momentum.
Housing activity continued to rebound in July. Single-family housing starts, new and existing home sales all rose strongly with signs of further momentum in the short term; uncertainty about the longer-term outlook remains high.
Payroll employment continued to expand in August. The unemployment rate fell, mainly due to a further decline in temporary layoffs. The labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio both increased moderately, but remained below pre-pandemic levels. With the latest reading, about 48% of the drop in payroll employment between February and April has been reversed.
Core PCE inflation remained well below the FOMC’s longer-run objective.
U.S. equity indices increased over the last month, amid rising volatility. The nominal 10-year Treasury yield rose modestly but remained low. The market-implied expected policy rate path rose moderately. The broad trade-weighted dollar index declined slightly. Oil prices were little changed on balance.
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Meantime Unity IPO indication is up to 75 on a red day rclxub.gif
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 19 2020, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(lamode @ Sep 18 2020, 11:39 PM)
well, it could be another SNOW that only lasts for a day.  sweat.gif  whistling.gif
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Yeah

At least no circuit breakers for now
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 20 2020, 10:14 PM

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WeChat Ban Blocked by Federal Judge in Ruling Against Trump Administration

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wechat-ban-is-...od=hp_lead_pos4

QUOTE
A federal judge in California temporarily blocked the Trump administration’s executive order curbing Americans’ use of WeChat, upholding a motion from users of the popular Chinese-owned messaging and e-commerce app.

U.S. Magistrate Judge Laurel Beeler entered an order Sunday for a preliminary injunction blocking the federal ban on U.S. downloads and other functions from going into force as scheduled for 11:59 pm Sunday.


Backstory here

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Internatio...at-ban-Saturday
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 21 2020, 09:46 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Sep 21 2020, 02:34 PM)
NKLA go up today ?
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There has to be a premium in the stock due to the way Trevor promoted it.

Also Hindenburg Research is still pushing and saying this is only the beginning.

zacknistelrooy
post Sep 21 2020, 10:30 PM

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The drama continues...

https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/13080...6209688578?s=20

QUOTE
Based on what I know, Beijing won't approve current agreement between ByteDance, TikTok's parent company, and Oracle, Walmart, because the agreement would endanger China's national security, interests and dignity.

zacknistelrooy
post Sep 21 2020, 11:10 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Sep 21 2020, 11:01 PM)
Very nice! Come on, bear bear be strong! Give me more!  rclxs0.gif
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Europe still worst off

Dax down 4% even with Euro weakness
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 22 2020, 12:59 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Sep 22 2020, 12:08 AM)
come on bear bear, don't lose up, stay strong!  bruce.gif
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Kind of pushing it here

There might be some downside left but not pushing my luck and bought back my covered calls as part of my hedging.

Spec position currently:

user posted image
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 22 2020, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(C-Note @ Sep 22 2020, 10:20 AM)
isnt 30% corrections rare like they statistically happen once every 5 years. one happened early this year and another 20+% correction happened last year. then again anything can happen
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Excluding the 1929 to 1940 there hasn't been many 30% down markets

From 1946 there has only been 7 times the S&P 500 was down more than 30%.

Until a certain person with his gang took over, it was more common for 10 to 20% corrections and also mini 5 to 10% mini corrections but right now it is extreme on both ends with peak and troughs higher than average.

QUOTE(lamode @ Sep 22 2020, 09:59 AM)
Elon Musk twitted something not so positive.
those looking to load at lower price, tonight may go down little more.
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Hopefully he is realizing to manage expectations also

Not really helpful to the market if the stock moves 5 to 10% multiple times in a week.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Sep 22 2020, 08:31 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 24 2020, 07:49 AM

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uhm

A sitting president has just said this:

President Trump: "Get rid of the ballots and we'll have a very peaceful — there won't be a transfer, frankly. There will be a continuation."

While his words are always over the top but with something this serious it isn't a great look.

He has also said the White House will decide the vaccine rules instead of the FDA.

😵
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 25 2020, 07:38 PM

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QUOTE(thxxht @ Sep 25 2020, 10:54 AM)
i expect this up and down trend continue until after election, in which case if biden wins, stock market most likely will go further down, if trump win it'll go up.
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It is a different world right now but history says otherwise

user posted image

https://investornews.vanguard/what-u-s-elec...-for-investors/
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 29 2020, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Sep 29 2020, 10:11 AM)
Another key event which will create volatility in the stock market this week is the first Presidential Debate scheduled for tomorrow 7 am KL time.
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I think it is 9 a.m



Blank-Check Dealmakers Seek to Raise $100 Million for SPAC Fund

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...n-for-spac-fund

QUOTE
A team of blank-check company dealmakers is seeking to raise $100 million for a fund that will invest exclusively in special purpose acquisition companies.

Boston-area investment firm Easterly Alternatives plans a fund that will invest in as many as 15 SPACs, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg. The firm and its partners say they’ve been involved in more than 50 SPAC initial public offerings in the past five years and say the fund will be the first of its kind.

The fund will primarily target new-issue blank-check companies that are repeat SPAC issuers and have “former public company executives on the sponsorship team,” according to the documents. Easterly is targeting gross returns of 12% to 15% annually and the minimum investment will be $5 million.
Darrell Crate



zacknistelrooy
post Sep 30 2020, 10:37 PM

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QUOTE(yehlai @ Sep 30 2020, 08:03 PM)
I don't like Trump but hope get another 4 yrs for the sake of bull run
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If one wants sustainable rallies instead of mad runs and crashes that the other option is the way to go

Don't need to listen to me but here is what Moody Analytics projects

user posted image

Attached File  the_macroeconomic_consequences_trump_vs_biden.pdf ( 460.52k ) Number of downloads: 12

zacknistelrooy
post Oct 2 2020, 08:04 PM

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QUOTE(HolyAssasin4444 @ Oct 2 2020, 02:09 PM)
Any source for the dry powder liquidity? Would like to keep track of it if it's publicly available
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This has been something that has been touted for years although not in the amounts they are talking now.

In the end I have yet to see if it has made a difference and one has to consider if they would really move those money market funds into the market.


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zacknistelrooy
post Oct 21 2020, 09:27 PM

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https://www.axios.com/ceo-confidence-consum...b438014813.html

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The big picture: Judging by their stated expectations, CEO confidence is not a good sign for workers. Over the next 12 months, CEOs said they expect to cut jobs, hold down employee pay and reduce capital spending.

37% of CEOs expected to reduce their capital budgets in the year ahead, while 38% expected no change and 25% anticipated increasing spending.
34% expected a net reduction in their workforce, another 34% expected no change and just 9% expected an expansion of the workforce above 3%.
21% foresaw no increase in their employees’ wages and 5% said they may reduce wages.
62% of CEOs expected little to no problems finding qualified workers, while 11% expected widespread talent shortages or hiring problems.

Worth noting: Consumers globally grew slightly less confident this week, continuing a trend evidenced over the past six weeks across the income spectrum, per data provider Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Expectations.


user posted image


zacknistelrooy
post Nov 3 2020, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Nov 3 2020, 10:05 PM)
Anyone buying BABA ? hehe
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I am going to wait a bit on my end
If I miss it so be it

Prefer at least to avoid a similar situation when it went sideways for over two years when news coverage wasn't that favorable at that time.



This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Dec 17 2020, 09:28 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Nov 3 2020, 10:45 PM

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QUOTE(HolyAssasin4444 @ Nov 3 2020, 10:32 PM)
Don't really follow BABA much,what's with the massive drop today? Related to the failed Ant IPO?
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Yes and probably part of some of the stuff Jack Ma said the other day

QUOTE
A meeting called by four financial regulators on Monday changed all that. The People’s Bank of China, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said late in the day that they had summoned Mr. Ma, Ant’s executive chairman, Eric Jing, and its Chief Executive Simon Hu to a meeting, without providing details.

Ant said Monday that “views regarding the health and stability of the financial sector were exchanged” at the meeting, and that it would embrace regulation and service China’s economy and its citizens.

On the same day, the country’s banking regulator released draft rules on microlending that, when implemented, could slow the expansion and profitability of one of Ant’s fastest-growing businesses.

The Shanghai exchange said its decision to suspend Ant’s listing was because the meeting and changes in the financial-technology regulatory environment constituted major events that didn’t meet its standards for disclosure to investors.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ant-group-ipo-...od=hp_lead_pos1

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Nov 3 2020, 10:46 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Nov 4 2020, 12:40 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 4 2020, 12:25 AM)
Why market bull today? Election has no risk anymore?  laugh.gif
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Rumor is some hedges are being sold
Vix down already.

Probably today sums up the last 4 years.

How many times have we seen random rallies in the past 4 years...


QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Nov 4 2020, 12:30 AM)
Suspended IPO, but I've bought some during the dip
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If you want a bit of diversification and didn't know about KWEB then that is a good option.

Also EMQQ is another option.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Nov 4 2020, 12:59 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Nov 4 2020, 07:25 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 4 2020, 02:44 AM)
so how many days we need to wait for the final election results? really 1 week later, that long?!
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If it is close then there are problems and if not we should get this wrap up like danmooncake said in 24hrs.

user posted image

There are some places not even counting mail in ballots till tomorrow and some places trying to throw out ballots so how close it is matters.


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elect...-night-n1245925

QUOTE
It's likely that in Sun Belt battlegrounds such as Florida, North Carolina and Texas, the first totals to be reported will be huge tranches of mail and early in-person ballots that break heavily for Joe Biden, creating a "blue mirage" in the early tallies that could be erased once Trump-friendly in-person Election Day votes are tabulated.

But the opposite could be true in northern battlegrounds such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where officials are not permitted to begin processing mail ballots until the day of the election (or, in Michigan's case, the day before). In those states, a "red mirage" of Trump-heavy Election Day votes could linger until larger metro counties report huge tranches of early ballots later in the evening.

zacknistelrooy
post Nov 4 2020, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(JimK @ Nov 4 2020, 05:58 PM)
just open webull account. Is it okay?
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It is a solid platform but last I heard there aren't much ways to transfer money to it but I could be wrong.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Nov 4 2020, 07:47 PM

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